Greetings fellow Traders,
This is my first ever online discussion and I am fairly new to Forex (12 months) so please be kind.
I am looking at Swing trading the EUR/USD using Trend Line Theory over 4hr timeframes. I’m using a 30 EMA and Trend Theory as my entry conditions. My max stop loss would be 50 pips taking profit at 150.
Am I being too ambitious? or even not enough? I work full time and cant watch my charts that often.
Would greatly appreciate any assistance.
Cheers
You should set a time limit. When the clock runs out, close your trade regardless whether you are in profit or in the red. Reassess market conditions and time your re-entry.
oh… You’re not that new
12 months is not fairly new
we get people here saying "i’m fairly new " that are here less than a month,
You’re a teenager in forex years hehe
ok
EUR USD H4 and taking profit at 150 pips
i would personally suggest your stop be at 60 or 70 pips, unless you want to be aggressive.
EURUSD can move with 60 pips without batting an eyelid
as for taking profit, i would probably put it at closer to 90 pips
but hey… if you have tested it and you can consistantly achieve 150, why not
also, instead of trying to achieve 150
have you perhaps tried to triple the lot size and achieve 50 pips while also reducing the Stop loss to around 20 pips
or maybe stop loss at 30 pips but doubling the lot size to take profit at 75 pips
YOU GET WHAT I’M DOING
now. be careful when you do this, because when you increase the lot size you are increasing the nominal margin, so be careful
i’m just throwing out ideas
eurusd can take 150 pips
but, why are you after so many
i mean, chances are it won’t hit that everyday
so… what’s the strategy ?
Hi Martin, thanks for the reply.
The system is pretty basic, I’m trading part time and want a ‘set and forget system’ that’s also very
conservative. So maybe I need to drop the TP a litte.
Strategy - constructing a trend line with a minimum of 12 4hr candlesticks and 3 troughs, entry is 10 pips over the highest high or lowest low of the trend.
30 EMA either higher or lower to confirm a decent trend.
Some people like to ride out the trend or scale in and out but I simply don’t have the screen time or the
confidence. Maybe in the future
I do like the idea of less pips with higher lot size though
the other thing you can do is put Multiple trades on
so if you are trying to get say 20 pips, you could put on 4 trades that run to 5 pips each starting and finishing at the same point, that’s another way to do it
There really isn’t a SET IT AND FORGET SYSTEM, you do have to monitor trades.
but you don’t have to monitor them frequently
and you want to try and pick a currency that is not highly volatile
but, again, it depends on what you goal is financially as well
so how much and by when.
I started off trading trend lines on 4hr charts. I did not set profit targets. I exited at a breach of the trebd line or based on time. For example, out of everything by 0700 east coast time on Friday.
Fewer pips and a bigger position-size is a very good idea if it earns more than more pips and a smaller position-size.
If it doesn’t, then it’s a very bad idea.
You have to study the results of a few hundred trades with each method, to determine the answer. It isn’t something that anyone can “advise” you about in a forum without having seen the results. It’s pretty much a black and white issue: you use whatever minimises risk and maximises profit. Simple as that.
You need to do that anyway, to know what R:R is appropriate. There are plenty of methods that make steady profits with a 1:3 R:R and lose money with smaller R:R’s, just as there are many that make steady profits with, say, a 1:1 R:R and would lose, overall, with a 1:3 R:R.
Only analysing your own results observed from your own method can possibly tell you this. Anything else is just random guesswork, and completely unhelpful.
Exactly
everyone should formulate their own strategies.
I’m with you on that. I have spent 5 years of my life trying to copy my mentor’s trading methodology. There was little progress until i modified his strategy to suit my own life SCHEDULE. IMHO, i think why most great strategy fail to work for anyone is due to personal time constraint and discipline to follow thru. It is important to match up the pieces of the puzzle in ways you feel comfortable with. It is also imperative that you adopt a style that suit your personality or risk appetite. The Seer can only point you the direction, the trekker have to seek.
I agree - “mentors” - even if you manage to find one of the rare ones who are not “fraudulent” are of little use unless their strategy and mindset are on the same wavelength and psychology as your own.
Thet is something you will not find out until AFTER you pay the “Fee”.
Exactly… and i think the main problem is NEWBIES ARE SCARED to try things on their own
and they treat a mentor as a safety blanket
the point they miss is TRADING IS NOT SAFE
hence they need to learn RISK MANAGEMENT (in every sense of the meaning)
but
THEY CAN’T START LEARNING RISK MANAGEMENT IF THEY ARE NOT WILLING TO TAKE THE RISK OF
TAKING THINGS IN THEIR OWN HANDS AND DISTANCING THEMSELVES FROM THE MENTOR WHEN MAKING DECISIONS
Just like you can’t learn to drive a car if you are never willing to drive without the instructor present.
I can see your points… I’ll look at adding in a trailing stop loss to possibly lock in some profits and keep myself sane while at work. I’ll keep tweaking until it’s comfortable. cheers
1:3 risk reward is possible, especially on smaller timeframes (M15 H1)
Good way to multiply your r:r without risking additional capital is to pyramid winners. Open a new trade when the first reaches +50 and move the original SL to its entry. Keep opening new trades and moving SL, each up 50 at a time, until you get stopped out by a 50 pull-back. For no additional capital risk (unlike using a larger position size) your r:r can foreseeably reach double figures.
yes, this is another way to do it.
It’s not about being ambitious. It’s about being skilled. 150 pips profit target is not so big. It’s about your strategy, timeframe and entry level. If the entry is good 150 pips for EURUSD is not a big or ambitious target.
In fact, if you are fortunate enough to have 3 consecutive trades with 50pt SL and 150pt TP, and the last one is a loser, you will have made a net profit of 250pts.
By pyramiding as I have outlined, you increase this to +1,350pts, and r:r has gone ballistic to 1:27. As far as I know, there is no purely TA-based system or entry signal that would achieve r:r of 1:27.
I really like this idea, I have been toying with the idea of trailing stops but will give this concept a go on a demo account. Do you use this method on your trades? Looks like a great way to catch those big moves
Thats not pyramiding thats a grid system. And there’s no guarantee the price will continue on its way.
Now I’m not going to argue, if this works for you then so be it, you’ve been an advocate of it for a long time. But its about %return and expectancy, not pips or R:R ratios.
I use it on all trades. As soon as a trade is opened, I set an additional equivalent order the same distance ahead of price as the stop is behind. When it triggers, move the stop of the original trade forward to entry. Set a new order at the same time and keep doing this and moving all stops ahead by the same distance as each new order triggers.