That’s an interesting development Carll. How did that come about if you don’t mind me enquiring?
Do you actually work in close contact with them?
I had taken some useful advise from your posts. Thanks carll. For me I am still in the transition stage of adopting my trading to to the simple theory and logic presented in the ATT. I am a slow learner and never know when can I see the light at the end of the tunnel like you. But i know if i persist on my journey someday I will reach there eventually. 
Just stick at it Ray. Some time ago I developed and posted the key principles I had taken from the ATT thread. I called it, tongue in cheek, the 10 non commandments as clearly there are no absolutes in this business. Posted again for anyone interested
ATT.pdf (1.8 MB)
I made contact with Jocelyn here & struck up a rapport with Jimmy, jjay & another of their colleagues elsewhere earlier this year, initially to get some feedback about a couple of aspects of my trade planning & positioning & it progressed from there.
Long story short, following 2 meetings including verifying & evidencing my live trading history, I spent time at their offices, met a few of their colleagues including the few who post on here, & traded one of their in-house accounts under supervision operating my own model to get accustomed to the new platform & larger bet sizing.
I was already basically trading their structure anyway so it wasn’t like it was a new experience for me.
I no longer work out of their premises but I do have regular contact with them.
As of beginning of this quarter I now operate via a remote dial-in from my home office & receive weekly security password access to a sub account into the groups trading platform.
The strategy style I’m executing via the spot market is only one cog in a bigger wheel.
The investors operate an umbrella type set up with guys trading sub accounts in stock & currency options, commodities, futures, indices & shares.
I hook up a couple times a month with Jimmy, Tess & the others to touch base & get an insight into their daily routines.
Stuff like sitting in on pod meetings observing how each unit filters & grades information flows, constructs & manages positions & accounts tailored to the trade objectives – how they prioritise trade opportunities in sync with current market developments - how they interact with their network of contacts, industry colleagues & broker reps to maximize the info.
They undertake regular conference call meetings + I’m free to log in & listen (as do their associates from other locations) to their pre-London bulletins & post London/New York market wraps focused on what & who is currently driving & influencing the spot market activity & how those influences are likely to play out over the next 24+ hours.
There’s also the opportunity of interacting with them via their live trade room, which was principally set up for the benefit of some of their more active clients.
It’s usually operational from 5.00-6.00am gmt through to the London fixing, sometimes a little earlier and/or later depending on the state of play.
That place really comes into its own when the market is cranking up the pace.
So I’m not short of contact options if needed.
You at least had the good sense to employ a stop loss.
Well played.
Given the fact this pair is displaying a strong upside shift this morning, what are you going to do next & what will influence that decision?
That’s what I was inferring in my last post.
If you’re using (current) bias as one of your entry criteria then weren’t you looking the wrong way when executing that short?
I agree this pair has blanketed it’s average days range up at the London morning highs, but today’s bias on your intraday chart is bullish not bearish. Would you not perhaps require any further additional confirmation that the risk card was being dealt the other way before betting against the longs?
The general theme on here being;
[I][B]Bias up: buy pullbacks if the risk/value ratio stacks up - or stand aside
Bias down: sell rallies if the risk/value ratio stacks up – or stand aside[/B][/I]
After Bernanke speech, it seems that the EU is in a retrace mode. But there are no significant trigger for us to trade the pullback. In addition, EU is having trouble with the 1.400 zone.
That’s certainly an understatement :). EUR has been hitting at that zone for the past couple weeks now.
Hello Andre
it was bit unlucy for Matt with the trade to short the euro from that entry no?
I saw he was doing a 1 2 3 from a last weekly high and also it was being a good room for the trade to go down to the begining of today open price.
Is it not a good way to take this trade to see how strenth of the sells is looking?
Hi hawkmoon,
It depends how you’re viewing the current bias & the type of confirmation you’re seeking in order to compute value v/s risk.
If that potential opportunity ticked all Matt’s normal credentials then he’ll simply have to chalk it down to one of those that got away.
Thing is, when you’re taking that view from those types of tight angles you don’t give yourself a whole lot of margin for error if you’re slightly off beam with your timing.
You got to nail that entry pretty much every time you take a swing & that’s a pretty heavy mental weight you got to carry around with you every day.
If you run the rule over your near-term chart numbers, the last couple months bias is still long this pair.
The last 2-3 weeks it’s neutral/long.
Thursday & Fridays lows (c1.3870-90) are the first obvious test of the bull strength.
If that zone fails to shoulder it then selling into rallies down & through last weeks lows at 1.37 is one potential value ticket.
There will be plenty of opportunity to hop on & off the shorts if this thing is running out of steam & sell orders are getting thicker.
I’m not saying the above option is the only value ticket on offer, but it makes sense over the long haul to try place yourself where your actions can do the least damage & give you wider margins for error when trading an exclusive intraday view.
Rather than attempting to pick local tops (or bottoms) it might be more prudent to use your shorter timeframe entry criteria to leg in & out of moves keying off the slightly longer-range bias.
Let the market prove the levels are genuine or not first before switching sides & playing your odds.
That’s the straightforward take on it yes.
If you mark up your prominent swing points (red lines) everything inside is negating itself, printing lower highs & higher lows etc.
Until that double header support that Andre mentioned earlier (lower shaded zone) gives ground the upside bias remains in play.
Intra-week longs have pared out & booked profits leaving a scrappy, busy junction inside that swing channel. I’m sure the intra-day bargain hunters can locate keener potential elsewhere until this pair gains firmer traction.
If you’re intent on throwing money at it, you’ll at least have today’s high-low markers to key off.
Andre and Seans points are well taken. Like other contributors I have been contemplating the shorts on this pair given this daily pattern. I have stayed out because I cant find a value entry but will now rethink this based on this input. The trouble with the 123 play at this level is there is then no room for the trade. Just my 2c
good morning to you guys.
I have looking at this eurousdoller on my large charts and ther is lots of steps it has moved on all of this moves up to 14150. if the traders think thay will like to short the euro back down below the low of the last week I will be thinking at 13550 next level for it to drop loking on my four hours charts.
Would the traders who look at longer time for their tradeing also be thinking about thes such levels sean & andre? what else can I look at to see beter of some importent level that these long time trader is planing.
Well you could strip your Daily chart back & take a look at the bigger picture.
If you look objectively at this aggressive move up off the years lows you’ll notice that it’s put in a very visible 2 leg uplift.
Leg 1 from 1.19 to 1.33 covered 14 figures & pulled back 50% to 1.26 in August.
Using the 1.26 pullback as the start of leg 2 it’s so far covered a similar distance (15 figures) up to the current high at 1.41
If traders decide to blow a little froth off this 2nd leg at 1.41 then technicians will begin eyeballing a possible mirror scenario of leg 1 playing out.
That will put the early August 1.33 major swing high firmly on the radar as a likely c50% medium range pullback target of this 2nd bull leg.
As with any other analytical scenario just be aware of what other players will likely be referencing, tuck it away in the background & wait see what the market actually decides to deliver.
If it does begin to turn over & it looks like picking up a head of steam, then you got a mid-range zone already tagged on your radar to run a few numbers off.
Even if your preference is for a shorter-range type model outlook, it doesn’t do any harm to take a broader sweep at the market structure & map out a couple of each way possibilities.
Of course as you drill down a little further you can get a clearer look at these big levels. They’ll always display either solid previous demand or supply footprints to help you get a read on the price action next time it revisits a key level.
thank you sean for showing this view to me. i look to the charts of the daily eurusdoller many times to see the levels that you all show us but i never to think like the way you have for seing this price posabilty.
it is very clever to see like this how the price actoin moves to and back at the levels that are watchd by fibonaci traders also. it makes me know i have to think clever this way also.
Today GU looks to be on the bullish side. Got in at 1.5844 using a M5 chart when price retraces back. Get myself positioned and see how price reacts to 1.5870 resistance on a H1. Place my stop loss on a M15 previous high at 1.5800.
hmm… I was thinking it looks good for a short about 5866
Thats a brave decision Ray. There aren’t many who’d buy a pullback at the top edge of the average days range, so I hope it jogs on up the hill to reward your courage.
As a matter of interest, what’s your next upside on that trade?
From what I’ve read they don’t make adjustments to the core base of their structure. I think you’ll find that once they get stopped out or they exit part of their position due to a change in market behavior, they stand aside until they can get a better read on what’s influencing the price action.
You trade intraday don’t you Matt? I believe I also read where they don’t intentionally budget to take an awful lot of intraday positions, therefore your market expectations & requirements will differ from theirs even though you’re looking at similar technical information.
I had to admit this is a wrong trade choice. GU did not go where i expected it to be. I did not take note of the average trading range. Seems like I have much more to learn.