That’s very good advice & especially this year with the markets trying to process the differing reactions & implications to the latest Irish twists involving the financial aid package.
No-one is suggesting not to trade, just be a little extra vigilant when setting up & running your bets.
Looks like the FXL guys were spying on your recent posts….
Under current trading condition, is it good to try out new strategy? 
I’m guessing that wouldn’t be such a great idea Ray.
You’ve read their stuff from when they first started posting on here haven’t you? They’ve mentioned in the past around this time of the year (backed up by another market watcher in the above article), that technical levels & price action get chopped & kicked around due to lower liquidity & increased volatility.
It’s difficult to obtain an accurate read on your strategy under such conditions. Probably better to wait until the market gets back on an even keel with full participation from those who dictate & influence the majority of the price action.
Its funny, one source says the reason the dollar saw growth was because of the strong GDP figures, and then if you look at other fronts, markets are down because of the North Korean aggression.
Which is right? Well my guess, the financial news that said GDP was the driver is wrong. We all know that the markets would have responded in favor of a risk appetite if it were not for Korea. Another good marker is look at the USDJPY, if the USD growth seen on other pairs was due to GDP, then why did the pair actually go down in value today.
Anyone else have thoughts?
Risk aversion pure & simple.
Markets are on edge with the Korean spat. Irish wranglings are also high on the agenda. You got German & Dutch finance ministers sending negative vibes through the market on the state of the Euro currency in wake of more higher possible debt collapses.
Portugal likely to be downgraded.
S&P off over 1.5% & change.
The fall out of all that is now knocking onto heavy stop orders, particularly on eur/usd & eur/jpy (a risk barometer for the markets)
How much more do you want?
My guess is a lot of yen returned home… Overseas investments suddenly look like a bad idea. At least until the world’s best golfer Kim Jong gets that chip knocked off his shoulder.
Kim?
Ah, you mean that Kim In Bred guy huh 
Flight to safety indeed.
Gold popped 18 bucks today up to last weeks highs - the largest jump in over 2 weeks.
That’s been a slam dunk this week on the back of all this soft & negative news.
Looks as though you’re having a ball with that outlook again this week.
Gold last week, Cable, Euro (& the crosses) this week.
A proverbial candy store!
Yes, I am glad I am not the only one seeing it in this fashion. I just think its ridiculous how the financial newspapers will take news, with a correlation and turn it into causation. My only question now is, are they doing it on purpose to fool people, or are they really misinformed?
You got to appreciate that sometimes there’s more than one driver or item of influence & importance ticking through the market.
These journalists & talking heads get paid to deal the news based on what’s coming across the tape & how their editorial desks are filtering & processing it.
Ireland was high in the queue before last weekend. It became amplified on Sunday/Monday & got louder this morning. Add into the mix Korea & you got a very potent risk averse picture.
Like the main guys on here have regularly mentioned, the market will take time to absorb, process & filter the dominant themes & it will get reflected via the technicals as it prints peak-trough steps (lower highs & lows & higher lows & highs) on the back of the order flow.
One option of stepping on & off these short & medium term oscillations has been reiterated & highlighted by hawkmoon & Carll recently.
If the drivers & influences are hot then prices will extend through several round numbers before slowing.
If they’re luke warm, then you’ll get the nod to bail as prices fail to follow through with fresh highs or lows.
I guess maybe you could say that the fundamentals themselves aren’t really that important, it’s your ability to figure out how the trading community will react to the fundies that makes the difference.
(Of course fundies in themselves are important, just not necessarily for profitable trading)
For that reason, the talking heads are sometimes right but often wrong and almost always late with their analysis. They [I]react[/I] to what their contacts on the trading floors etc tell them and by the time it makes it into the feeds…
Now, a talking head that makes consistently accurate analyses of how the markets [I]will [/I]behave, that’s something I’d like for X-mas 
Until then I’ll stick to a purely technical approach.
I don’t think they are trying to fool anybody. I think it’s a lot simpler.
For every Robert Prechter saying the crash is coming, you have a Jim Kramer yelling BUY BUY BUY.
The point is, they just don’t know, and get paid to talk about it.
And then there are the currency experts. Talk about the blind leading the lame, it’s humorous to watch them fall flat time and time again.
You can analyze this thing to death, and then Osama bombs a train in Spain, and throws it all into the air.
Best to use those simple triggers, and realize at the end of the day, this is a yoyo, not a one way trip up.
What’s most interesting about this form of simplified price watching, & the one aspect of it that has added a lot of extra confidence to my forward planning is how consistently the action obeys their pre-identified levels.
There are plenty of examples scattered through the three threads, but this offering from Tess back on October 7 yet again emphasises how little information needs to be included on one’s technical chart in order to play this game effectively.
Although the average days ranges have been stretched for the reasons already covered here, prices have continued to stall & react at the obvious swing zones she highlighted over six weeks ago. If, like me you’ve marked these zones out on your chart you’d have a reliable target zone to aim at as prices move strongly down through the round number stages.
Here’s her chart from October 7 highlighting the potentially important reaction levels.
Five days later price bounces the 5750 to 5770 area & finds buyers twice the following week 100 pips lower at the 5650 to 5670 supp & resist zone.
Yesterday price fell in excess of 135% of it’s average days range, but stalled out right around an area that’s held previous significance since that original chart was posted on October 7.
And it’s even obliged by pulling back to & reversing off last weeks lows in today’s Asian & European trade.
This is the type of price action that they so regularly remind us of that I find not only fascinating but very rewarding both financially & from a learning aspect.
It is hard for me to get the tradeing bias wrong if i base the decison around thos defenitons of how i watch the prices.
i did not trade the long gold positon but yes it fitted the defeniton great.
Instead i am traded the euro-gbp pair + the eur-usd pair with same short bias after failurs to continu to makeing fresh highs and also i was waiting to re short the eur-cad pair on a failur to make new highs, so i am tradeing that too. these are all nice clean oppertunity’s for me.
This coments i very much agree with you kevan. it is tradeing with not very much conflict or confused informaton on chart. if a bias is to continu and not break a previus high or low, it is no need to change our trade positon, but instead continu to either keep shorting or longing the pair.
At a wild guess I’d say that quote was lifted from part of a wider discussion focusing on that specific set up that had a thread & supporting information dedicated to it at the time.
As a rule of thumb Matt if you don’t see it on any of our chart offerings on the TT threads, or regularly mentioned in our accompanying commentary, then you can confidently assume it’s not used or observed.
As it’s the start of another year it might be worth revisiting the core principle of the structure.
[I]The object of the exercise is to clearly identify an obvious directional bias (or trend) on your default chart timeframe.
Once that observation can be confirmed to your satisfaction, you are then in a position to determine whether or not you should be positioning yourself to short rallies or go long dips using whatever chart timeframe you prefer to execute those trades from.[/I]
We’ve recommended sticking up a couple of horizontal lines (prior weeks high & low) to assist in offering a little background geography regards price positioning + a vertical marker to establish & focus the weeks opening ticks.
If it helps to focus attention on the prior days high-low positioning then stick up a further vertical line & simply move it at the end of each trading day.
Any further additional information is simply the operators preference.
It seems that eur/usd could be in for a bias change today. No new daily high or low made and I have a LH and LL on my 3hr chart. Perhaps it might be time to start selling rallies on eur/usd back down to it’s lower levels? Just looking to see if anyone else following this thread might share the same idea and also making sure this valuable thread doesn’t get lost in the crowd.
A bit early for me to get my shorting boots on RC64.
It’s still displaying dip buying opportunities this week & will take a drop & daily close through last weeks closing level at 1.3380 to tempt me.
But as they so regularly say on here, “if the price action ticks all your boxes & meets your personal set up criteria, then get it done”
Trailing stops through 1.3350 & 1.3230 will definitely attract attention should it fail to continue climbing to fresh yearly highs.
It sure is having a rough time getting through that mid december 1.3500 level. 
To be expected I guess if you consider the technical significance of this 1.3425-1.3500 channel of prior resistance going back to early December.
A break up through here should inspire some decent business towards the late November swing high around 1.3750-80 if the usual stop clustering activity is anything to go by.