I’ll side with DoubleEcho, certainly for this week anyhow.
If you take a general sweep across the Euro board & a quick peek at the Dollar Index RC64 you’ll see the Euro isn’t suffering any undue stress at current levels.
Technically it’s holding firm above Mondays higher swing low & in my book buyers have the better value beyond there for the time being.
Certainly seems to still be gaining ground. My 3hr LH got taken out early on today. Seems like I’ll be looking out for a dip come monday. Hope everyone has a good weekend. 
Yep, couldn’t have asked for a nicer entry. I would post a pic of it for others but I still have to figure that out. lol
I’ll steal this one of Sean’s. He & Jimmy were running it by a few guys earlier this morning as it was playing out. I’d imagine it’s close to what you were also eyeballing?
Pretty typical & straightforward technical positioning to be honest. Nothing too complicated about it.
As dancat said, higher low pullback zone identified on your default chart…
And a trigger set-up (one of Carll’s favorites which is highlighted a few time on here) to get in as it trips the high value continuation long…
That certainly sums it up and is exactly where I managed to hop aboard. Used the same type of trigger.
Hello tess,
today at europe open i wait & not take the long enter trade on euro-dollar becaos it too close to the high of Monday. This is right I think.
The best entry i am thinking is on the pull back to round number 1.36 becaos it is still a bullish bias as long as it trades above yesterdays low?
As advised i am staying away from forums and focusing on my stretagy and only come to here now for asking of you questions. Sorry i no can post the chart, but i explane the zones so think you understand where i mean.
i am still enjoy this tradeing style very much.
Absolutely, especially as yesterdays high had already been rejected during today’s Tokyo trade.
You’re obviously paying attention to these commonly traded zones & that’s great to see.
It was in direct contrast to yesterdays bet consideration where Fridays & the closing weeks high was plenty enough away to enable a decent shot at the long entry.
As you rightly point out, as long as prices are honoring the current dominant bias there’s no need to change your view.
Failure to defend 1.3535 would put the current bias under pressure & should be the trigger for you to step aside & re-assess, take the time to dig a little deeper via your newswire or squawk & see what’s driving or influencing the market.
Whatever the circumstances there’s no rush or panic to get back aboard. Wait patiently until you get a real clear look at the action & you’re able to determine when the higher probability odds are on your side.
Carll put this up this morning & it mirrors your above comments.
It looks like it’ll get washed out if it probes his stop underneath 3570 but it emphasizes the concept of seeking out value entries in line with your structure & market view.
Until the flow tells you otherwise…………simply go with it.
They’d have squeezed them a little harder & higher too had Irish CB governer Honohan kept his trap shut.
A lot of intraday volatility playing out today. Markets are pretty thin into the London close. Still, it allowed him to pare out & clear the decks.
EURGBP pushing through the stiff .8650 barrier would offer a helping hand to scale beyond 1.3700 onto next stage.
Nice thing is, the intraday high-low barriers can be used as trampolines providing the bias stays intact.
Makes those pullback entries all the sweeter.
Oh sure. It stands to reason that at some point during the weeks activity in order for the market to continue cycling to the long (or the short) side & keep the current bias intact, it’s going to have to work through the prior days high/low first & eventually hurdle the prior weeks high/low too.
There’s a reason prices get spun around so consistently at those technical areas & the market has to put them to bed before progressing to the next (outer) reaction zone.
Hence the focus in these threads on those important levels.
By matching them up with the average days range coverage & the current bias, you can better gauge the potential of a probable continuation move by mapping out the price in relation to those points at any time during a typical trading session.
We know that last week eur/usd closed out up at the weeks highs. We also know the next potential upside destination point is your previously highlighted zone at 1.3750-80.
A successful journey to there opens up 1.3950 before exposing the 2010 highs at 1.4280.
Same deal to the downside.
Taking it a day at a time (as & when prices cover & print their days journey) once it hurdles those intraday points of interest, the next radar level would be the prior weeks lows (currently residing at 1.3250) ahead of c1.3080 & the current years lows at 1.2870.
It’s going nowhere however until those 2 key reactive (daily/weekly high & lows) zones fall into line. And providing the bias isn’t compromized in the meantime, simply take the higher probability option & go long dips or short rallies via your pre-defined trigger set ups.
yes this is most importent thing i learn from you guys.
Thank for your reply and confirm of my coments.
A good risk enter for me just now to take trade off the asian low allow me to acept low risk to see if price can break above this strong 13700 resistence levle. I get to check upside possibel break out and pay small risk to test it out 
If you legged in around the New York close (3675) & placed your stop below the bottom of the Tokyo range, you’re looking at a potential 6:1 play if it covers the days range, which would take price into the top tier of the next region already highlighted by DoubleEcho.
That indeed represents exceptional value if it should trigger the stops above 37.
Obviously, feeding into a core stake at these areas makes this type of operation even more financially (& risk) rewarding, but the thought process behind your decision is pretty smart.
If you can pick up a steady percentage of those types of deals you’ll make life a lot easier for yourself. You won’t get all of them of course, but playing those type of odds you won’t need to.
Things have sure been slow today with the interest rate coming out. Haven’t had any decent looking triggers. Hanging in to see if one might come after the announcement. Eur/usd still has around half of it’s average daily range left. Maybe it’s best to stay away on these days, atleast till after the rate is released?
It’s entirely your call. Sometimes prices will get driven early doors & readjust a couple hours ahead of the rate release, other times the market will be slow & thin.
A data release that prints 12 hours after the European market opens & a couple hours after it closes can get influenced either way depending on the current themes.
Usually if you get an entry trigger during the opening stages of Europe & it’s still making up it’s mind as New York comes online then it’s probably best to scratch it & take to the sidelines, or at least take steps to protect a live position.
Jocelyn is on a 6 mth break Matt & not back in the saddle until beginning of 2nd quarter.
Judging by the state that pair has got itself into since the end of November she wouldn’t be trading it anyway. That’s just too much like hard work don’t you think?
What’s up with buying dips on eur/usd?
Another clear long opportunity this morning on the pullback to yesterdays lows.
It’s been a cake walk since 3100.
I managed to grab this one. Moved down to the 1min chart and got triggered long in around 1.3675, just before the big push up after what I assume is a result of Bini Smaghi talking. Eur/usd sure has made a complete 180 from yesterday’s action.
Yes, but the most important thing is it didn’t compromize or negate the current dominant (bullish) bias.
So until it does, the value play is to continue going long dips to your pre-defined set up criteria.
Well spotted – that’s the value high probability play that the guys were advising to get hooked into earlier this morning as it eased back.
Hi Tess
I have a question with regarding entries, cause i remember you saying you like to get in ahead of the key levels to be positioned already.
For instance, with the current chart, am i right/wrong in saying if the bias is still long and we are thinking price is now making a higher low and will reverse and go long around last weeks low 1.3540, would you be looking to buy maybe around 1.3570 knowing that price may still test lasts weeks low before reversing…, and then would you add a second position at 1.3540 if price did reach there, is that what you mean by positioning ahead of the key price zones.
Secondly, would the bearish candles on friday keep you on the sidelines for the next possible long setup, even though it is yet to show the signs of totally reversing (lower low/lower higher)…Or is this a nice decent pullback to get position for a possible run up to 1.3950, so just play it as that until price says otherwise.
By travpip at 2011-01-29
She’ll usually split her stake up Matt, placing a percentage of the bet on the initial break of a level or zone to test the intent, & feeding the remainder in on pullbacks once it confirms the directional move.
Obviously the percentage split will depend on the level/zone, the pair & her primary objective for the trade, but that’s her usual strategy in breakout situations.
Hello trav.
True. I like to play that tactic when the opportunity presents itself to get a lead on risk & positioning, but you always have to ensure the conditions are favorable before committing to that option.
First off I’d be looking for the market to continue to confirm a buy on dips stance by conforming to orderly pullbacks maintaining the current directional bias.
That view will only change if prices fail to stay afloat above last weeks lows (c3540) & the market goes risk averse.
That will be the time to ease off until it signals its next move based on whatever’s influencing it.
The late week activity was driven by the continuing unrest in Egypt. We’re also trading into end of month positioning. Those two events played out up at an area we’d identified as next potential resistance, so the stalling at 1.3750-80 wasn’t unexpected.
We’ll see how the market reacts & positions itself into the early week european action on & around last weeks lows before committing any more fresh money.
I wouldn’t personally add another position unless or until the previous one was in positive territory.
I never average down.
No, those bearish candles wouldn’t force me to re-assess my view unless they negatively impacted the current bias by rubbing out the bullish peak-trough behavior.
If the market continues to offer favorable opportunities to scale into longs then I’ll look for a likely entry point.
If not I’ll stand aside until I get a high probability/low risk opportunity to climb aboard in either direction.
One of the key elements of that consideration would be the formation of higher highs & lows cycling to the long side & lower lows & highs cycling to the short side on my preferred default technical timeframe.
thanks for answering…i am suprised you only have 150posts to your name in the forum, i think i must have read thousands of your posts. It must be that i am reading them 3 or 4 times each. Great stuff always.