I guess you received your answer from the market this morning then trav72.
I assume you grabbed that attractive looking deal through 1.3620 earlier as it bounced the pullback off your aforementioned higher low region around Friday’s lows?
If you did, you managed to grab yourself a fantastic bargain in the risk department.
I’d imagine RC64’s interest was piqued around that level as it held a bid.
I was actually looking at last Thursday’s low around 1.3637 as a place to start looking for a long entry. Still managed to get a trigger for a long that has played out well so far. 
Whether it’s an add-in or a one off intraday trade you can’t turn your nose up at 3.5:1 odds, which that trade represents if it covers the days range @3730.
Not untypical either for this type of set up & model structure.
Which still left just shy of 60% of the avg range in play.
Not too shabby at all.
Month end order books were kind to the Pound today too huh?
Cable eating up the tarmac to last weeks highs.
Quite the little roadrunner.
Happy days.
I have avoided taking on the pound for trades because it usually seems to be more “choppy” than the euro. It tends to be more difficult for me to determine a dominant bias to trade with 
.
It is at the moment yes. You’re correct in avoiding it if you’re experiencing difficulty in determining a clearly identifiable bias.
For the time being stick to the easier option of following & trading pairs that offer much clearer opportunities to engage the bias & peak-trough rhythm of the market, in sync with your preferred set up & trigger criteria.
I doubt it would have passed you by that eur/usd offered another leg in this morning if it took your fancy thru 1.3720 off the early London pullback on the way to this previously highlighted stiff resistance zone.
Simply continue to do what you’re already doing & stick to your guns in testing & probing the dominant bias until it tells you otherwise.
Don’t make life any harder than it needs to be.
Yep, managed to grab a seat. Although, I got in with an eye on what I believe is the Tokyo low (around 1.3707?). I remembered it being highlighted on these threads before and it offered up a nice low risk entry trigger for me so I took a bite.
By stair step climb, are you referring the the higher daily lows? Would the reason for the possible stops gathering around 1.3650 be because it is below yesterday’s low and a big figure? Sorry about the questions, just trying to understand :o. Thanks
hello tess,
Can i ask plese how would you be judgeing your positoning this past week to ten days tradeing for the euro-doller and the pound-doller.
it looks mixed on these pairs and i am of interest to see your view on this action.
Thank you.
It’s the same orderly routine hawkmoon.
Get a read on any dominant bias via your preferred default data….mark up your technical chart with the current levels of interest….be aware of the pairs current average daily range journey….& look for the market to confirm it’s intent.
1st rule of thumb at the beginning of the week is to see how it closed out & positioned itself in relation to the prior weeks high/low & how that marries up with the bias you’ve determined from your data.
From there you can better establish the intent of the market by adding in the prior days high & low information to confirm whether it’s offering you low risk/high probability opportunities to engage.
If your radar signal is weak, confirming a choppy and/or passive outlook then stand aside until the conditions match your criteria for taking action.
So if you transport that information onto a chart you can see at a glance where it’s at.
I’m using the past 4-6 weeks worth of price action data on the eur/usd & it reveals the near-term reaction zones & dominant bias.
If I then drill down & add in the prior weeks high & low rejection levels I can see how they link up with the wider view.
It will tell me at a glance if any prior support or resistance zone is holding up & how the market is positioning itself in relation to the prior days high & low reaction levels.
Although it deflates early into Monday’s action & drops through last weeks low at 1.3497 it’s visibly supported at a zone of previous resistance & fails to confirm the drop (by forming a lower low & lower high), closing into the days highs.
If the prior days lows aren’t threatened & consolidated then those betting long have control.
You can therefore step in & buy dips until it tells you to cash out & stand aside.
None of the prior days lows have been violated this week - the bias remains bullish & the low risk/high probability value bet is trading the long side.
Same deal with gbp/usd.
I haven’t posted the wider view on this one, but if you check the past 4-6 weeks it’ll show you a similar picture.
As with eur/usd, there has been no violation of the prior days lows & it’s held above last weeks low… therefore the lower risk/higher probability value bet is to buy dips until the flows & the sentiment say’s otherwise.
yes of course the order shuld not shake my routene. thank for your perspactive, it is allways apreciated.
i traded gold this week becose i could see beter the momentum and bias.
the profits are being cashed for euro-doller today it apears and for now it is being suported at the low of yestarday prices.
Yes they’re typically in profit booking mode ahead of the weekend.
It’s the G20 meeting in Paris too, & we got the UK & US finance chiefs speaking in a couple hours so positions will naturally get trimmed & weighted accordingly.
They popped their head above yesterdays highs earlier this morning sniffing out buy stops, but looks like they’re pretty scarce for now which isn’t too surprising really.
As you say, market is now sniffing for orders back at yesterdays lows & I guess they’ll take a pop at the trailing stops underneath 3530 to see how juicy they are given half a chance.
Nice going with the gold bet. Whenever you get the opportunity always plump for an easier life! 
Hello Tess,
Great thread, very valuable information. I have been a follower for quite some time. Most of the time I have had the same questions as the other participants, so there was no real need to post. However, I find myself a bit confused here with the explanation to hawkmoon’s question, and I think some further clarification would be really helpful.
Let me explain: in the 4-6-week chart of EURUSD (4-hour chart I assume?) where you have marked the reactionary zones, the market leaves the zone initially between January 17-24 c. 1.3450-1.3470. Then it makes a run all the way to c. 1.3850. Then it returns to the “zone” c. 1.3450 this week. During the first run to 1.3850, the bias remains up, I guess we agree on that, right? However, from 1.3850 until its return this week, it clearly demonstrates a LH-LL bias. What are we supposed to make out of that? In other words, are we to just stand aside until price reaches the zone this week and not “touch” this pair from 1.3850-1.3450?
If yes, I guess then it all becomes clear. Otherwise, wouldn’t the LH-LL from 1.3850 down would lead to a down bias just in time the market reaches the zone this week, just when you mention that the drop through last week’s low did not get confirmed? I hope I am not confusing you with my thought process.
Thanks again for your time and help. 
If your entry selection criteria signals you in on a break down thru the recent higher swing low at 1.3760 as prices deflated from the current 2011 highs, affording you acceptable risk with decent forward potential, then you’re good to go.
That criteria will be based around & primarily influenced by your trading objectives.
Not at all.
As I said above you trade according to your objectives.
Your aims, objectives and/or risk attitude is unlikely to reflect mine & will be different to most others.
But as long as you can justify acceptable risk & forward value then your bet will get the green light.
Mr Bin Smaghi is shareing good news with euro-doller traders in Paris I see. and as yestarday lows are not broken, the bull bias stays intact and it is ok to buy the dip.
now again today they will try to blow those stops away.
after the american bank holiday the liqidity will be larger and i imagene the stops from the traders going long on the pound & the euro pairs against the doller will become more close to the market tess?
i wonder sometimes wich of these long stops locking in the profits are more importent and how to determin such, becose it will influense if to keep my long bets open or to cash out faster when prices move back against them.
It will depend on the differing objectives of the trading community hawkmoon.
Note we’re spitting out that oft repeated word again – [B][I]objectives![/I][/B]
I’ve mentioned before, there’s a varied array of agenda’s playing out up & down the price ladder. Those differing agenda’s will impact the price action & influence it based around whatever dominant theme the majority of the trading community is focusing on today/this week.
The primary & secondary drivers will jostle for priority based on a diet of constantly evolving micro & macro influences. As you’re aware, those influences dial in & out of focus almost daily & impact upon & reflect the technical behavior of the price action.
The absorption, processing & filtering of that information ultimately influences the aggressive/passive behavior of the intra-day & intra-week price gyrations.
Fortunately, most of the time those footprints offer you a pretty detailed view of where the upper & lower potential reactive (orders) zones are at.
You can then choose to observe & interact with that data from whichever timeframe (or combinations thereof) offers you the best view according to your personal trading [B]aims & objectives.[/B]
So if you’re in the camp of Cable longs running positions from last weeks bullish continuation move, you’ll now have your upper & lower zones mapped out & plotted.
Depending on risk attitude & objectives, trailing stops will be parked underneath the nearest round number at 1.62 with more back at 1.6150 (Fridays lows).
They’ll also be 2 way interest back from there to 1.6080-6110.
Orders will also be building on the journey back to last weeks lows (5980) at the 60 handle & those clear, distinguishable zones can be viewed from whichever timeframe offers you the clearer view.
Just try & put yourself in the position of those groups of traders running long positions from the various lower legs & use your eyes to adjudge the obvious hiding places & suitable risk to profit potential of the various bets.
Most of it is nothing other than pure common sense hawkmoon.
It’s not particularly complex or scientific.
The market will soon tell you if those levels contain plentiful order book booty by the way it reacts on the approach & the manner in which it leaves the zone again.
You’ll already be aware of the pressure that the recent price action is exerting on 63 handle, & you can bet your bottom dollar that traders will probe & press those offers up there until they obtain clear evidence that the barrier is insurmountable.
If the bullish momentum absorbs the offers & grinds on upwards, simply identify your next visible (& previous) reaction zones & pencil them in for close attention as & when price approaches.
this slowing as the price action reached your 6150 stop level in asia trade was finding bids too there tess. That explanes your 2 way coment I think & it also explanes why maybe the prices did not just move strate thrugh this level as it did up at 6200.
becose yesterday was low liquidity as US on holiday, if today resumes normal tradeing & the profit takeing attracts more shorts, the average range will take the priceing to your next level at 6080, the next level on your chart.
i am shorting this pullback from the asian drop. it gives to me a nice risk trade.
You can pretty much count on 2 way traffic at most of these obvious swing levels. The speed at which prices move through, or rejects a level, tells you how thick the orders are on the approach.
Obviously it won’t move in either direction until the orders are consolidated, so some zones can string out for quite a while until the dominant flows get the upper hand.
Good for you, well done.
If you climbed on anywhere around the 6160 level then you carved out a pretty good deal.
If it’s sufficiently bid back down here at Friday’s lows then at least you got ample time to scratch your short.
We got a little risk aversion kicking off again into early week trade across the board from the recent headline events, so that’s influencing current trade.
No problem.
Yeah, just don’t over think it.
The money will always sniff out the obvious zones first.
The way it behaves when it gets there will tell you a lot about the strength of the level & who is holding the ace card.
Stops, bids, offers, all the various orders etc migrate & get attracted to round numbers, especially if they also coincide with clearly identified reaction zones…& that one was simply a regular staging post, which is why it received a shaded prompt.
Sure did. They shook those snoozing long orders out of their bunk as price dropped into the zone, & if you’re a fan of your candle prints then that dragonfly doji & inside bar combo on the hourlies waved a nice green flag too.
Yes I’m still a vocal buyer of dips!
I wasn’t around after mid morning yesterday, so didn’t partake in the move back up, but Jim, Sean & a couple others are still aggressively buying dips into the zones of interest, such as the ones highlighted.
Obviously traders had already baked in a large slice of that anticipated mpc result this week & the move back up in NY & Tokyo was on the back of reduced liquidity.
Looks like they attempted a rather crude & clumsy bluff thru 1.6250 after the release to see if they could get a head of steam & check out the size of the orders laying above.
It’s still in focus so we can expect them to rally another cavalry call.