Sure, that’s fine. Those are the area’s that will act as the initial magnet & will be where the thicker offers will begin building.
The daily range markers will help to gauge when they’re likely to come into view on the radar if the momentum pushes it further.
Your downside levels are now also exposed, & moves back on profit taking or event driven sales will offer up clues to the strength & depth of potential bids for bounces back in line with current dominant bias.
Really enjoying your analysis and approach Carl. As usual thanks to Joss and the guys for the expert comment
It’s awfully quiet in here right now so i thought I’d bump the thread with this.
As has been pointed out by a lot of people, JPY may well be facing weakness ahead, due to several reasons.
Summed up pretty well here I thought: Japanese yen Double Whammy: QE from the BOJ and Exports to the US | Forex Blog: Currency Currents
Anyway, recently as we all know, USDJPY broke out of a range it’s been in for a while by first crossing 92.0 and then 93.5 as well.
Currently it’s contemplating and perhaps a retest of 92 is in the cards? 93.5 is at least already under pressure.
Some bullish price action to go along with this could perhaps make for a long trade with some running potential.
Chart, mind that todays daily candle is far from finished:
Yes, longs have got a bit extended since the pair scaled beyond the years highs through 93.75. The lack of follow through consolidating last weeks high has pressured & pre-empted longs to cover & look for better value farther back.
As you say, the 92 handle is where the previous continuation step took hold (see post numbers 196, 199 & 231), so if the profit taking takes hold & gets on a roll, I wouldn’t be surprised to witness that channel around the 92.20-40 come into view as a potential bid re-engagement level.
The other option would have been/would be to play it via the eur/jpy levels as it hustled this 126.90 – 125.20 s&r zone previously mentioned on here (posts 205, 206 & 233).
Either option is setting up both short & possible reaction long plays, as price keys off previously identified levels & zones that are attracting 2 way order flow.
I’ve found the best way to play these switchback moves is to firstly identify & establish prior levels where the orders have keyed off (either long or short) & look to engage on & around those levels next time around. That’s where trailing profit stops & bids/offers will begin to thicken up.
If they can probe for, & trip those stops underneath yesterdays lows, it’ll get there a whole lot faster.
Looks like the line of least resistance is taking a bat to it at one of these shorter timeframe lower highs if you can aboard. Appears the keener risk play at current levels anyhow.
Looks like it’s had a nibble at them, but needs a hefty kick in the butt to send it tumbling further!
It was actually a toss up between this pair & eur/jpy this morning. That one was setting up through 124.30, but I decided to play the short on $/jpy off 93.30 instead.
I don’t generally look at this pair mainly due it’s low average range coverage, but it ticked my set up boxes so took it on as it pulled back into the early London open.
If it covers it’s average range it will take price back to that visible 92.40-20 channel.
You’re liable to rock yourself to sleep watching that thing get dragged around all day long.
You’ll find better value from an intraday angle by hooking into your eurjpy, cable etc. Although you won’t get hurt too badly triggering short-term plays via usdjpy, it’s a better medium term play in my view.
eurjpy hit 70% of it’s range this morning to the downside v/s the 50% on your usdjpy short. When you’re hopping on & off the intraday momentum those kinds of returns will lengthen your odds & make for a better hourly rate.
If you’re going to carry usdjpy on any kind of watch list, I’d stick it on a medium term (minimum 1 hour chart view) tag & play it off the thick levels only.
Yeah, you’re right. It is a crappy intraday mover, & today’s exposure once again proved that point. Far better bang for my buck taking it on via eur/jpy.
I figured yen might have taken a bit more of a run on the back of the CNY chatter, thus squeezing dollar/yen back a little more, but it’s getting propped for now at least.
I generally use it purely as gauge for potential directional bias, but thought I’d take a pop at it, as it was sliding nicely with the current momentum.
I’ll definitely stick to my preferred pairs for future intraday opportunities. At least they regularly cover 70% of their range before deciding to take a rain check.
Could the last one out the door tonite just flick the risk switch back on pleeze?
Looks as though some kind soul took notice of your request last night sport!
Early screens had Dax marked up just shy of 1%, oil & gold were nicely in the green & eurjpy held the New York closing ticks comfortably.
Can’t quite get at those next stage stops beyond 125.75-90, but another (London) 70% of range leg up nonetheless.
Much better odds on your eurjpy horse this morning junior!
That old usdjpy nag is still huffing & puffing around the 40% marker into early NY. 
It’s trying hard to bust through after the London close. If it can just navigate itself into the eur/usd slipstream, it’ll be up, up & away.
Adr takes it to the 126.30 region if it breaks & fulfils it’s potential.
Absolutely. I’m back on my regular mount today. 
[B]on the bid,[/B]
How many days do you generally use to determine your daily average range? And… do you combine the Sunday hours with Friday’s?
thanks!
It’s a straight up, all inclusive 100 day range computation d-pip.
All the other permutations have been thoroughly plotted & tested over time & the 100 does the job adequately enough on a consistent basis.
No, we don’t shun it Matt.
Pairs zoom in & out of focus at varying times dependant on the current state of play & strategy aims. I guess at that specific time other pairs were offering better value.
To be honest usd/jpy & the crosses have tasted a lot sweeter than eur/usd of late, particularly from the back end of Q1 onwards.
The accounts we’re assigned here in UK are exclusively currency.
Tessa & a couple of the guys do transact other instruments classes, but it’s primarily FX based.
Different strokes for different folks Matt.
Some will have no problem diversifying & transferring their skills across a selection of pairs & even asset classes. It depends a great deal on the types of strategies & models being worked.
Some technical models will operate very efficiently & effectively across a range of instruments.
If you’re running a model based heavily around generic support/resistance & momentum biased price action, then you should be able to flip back & forth between FX pairs (assuming they fit the liquidity/volatility criteria for your strategy) & other asset classes with minimal disruption.
There really isn’t a ‘one fits all’ mold for training & tuition purposes. You just got to go with what feels right for you. It doesn’t usually take long to realize that something either works & feels right or it doesn’t.
eur/usd is a pretty reliable instrument to cut a rookies teeth on.
Reason being it’s heavily supported (liquidity) & adheres pretty well to most technical based strategies.
It’s also one of the lowest cost pairs (spreads & comms) which is important when starting out. Cable is ok, eur/jpy is a decent ‘teeth cutter’ too.
Anything that attracts decent participation will generally offer good fills with minimal slip. They’ll also tend to be cheaper to operate (spreads & costs).
If you’re paying an 8 spread across gbp/jpy you’re getting mugged. Even a 6 spread on that pair is top loaded.
I’d do a little hunting around for competitive costs if you’re looking to trade that pair. It’s a b*tch at the best of times, let alone when you’re trying to roll it on inflated spreads/costs.
Chew it in bite sized chunks.
If you notice, everything they posted can be interpreted & worked from whatever timeframe angle you choose.
Wherever price is now, just scale it out & back to the nearest previous reference point of importance & plot it from there.
So, if you’re picking it off from an intra-day/intra-week perspective your initial reference points will be the previous days high & low points + any clear obvious swing rejection levels;
1.3340 – 1.3225 (primary)
1.3415 - 1.3115 (secondary)
If you’re marking off outer range boundaries, then you’ll be looking at the early April top around 1.3680 then 1.38.
Downside focuses the April 09 swing low around 1.2850-1.30.
Those will be the initial points of interest for short & medium term range players as they come into view. 2 way stop orders will also be tiered at & around those levels.
As long as you got your reference points marked out you can play the price action back & forth toward & away from those zones & match your favored strategy model according to the conditions & your risk attitude.
If you were short the legs down off 1.55, where would your 1st line profit stops be at currently??
Maybe you’d have moved them down this morning to just beyond the London high, back to yesterdays New York highs? (1.5270-90).
Next step up would be the opening weeks high at the 1.5310-20 zone that marries up with a support area from last Thursday & Friday.
Then you got the levels you mentioned.
A little tip when adjudging upside or downside potential is to look at it from the perspective of current orders;
If you were already positioned, where would the likely trailing orders be starting to build. Chances are, 2 way flow will begin settling around those levels. If they also line up with obvious prior support & resistance reaction, then you’ve got a marker to lay down for future reference.
Same deal as jj’s levels from a couple posts back. He earmarked secondary potential down at 1.3115 (last weeks lows & approx 70% of the adr - a common staging post) on the single currency. Pop up a 5 minute chart from this morning & look where the orders are being bartered for the last couple hours?!
Today’s fast money will be looking to see if yesterdays lows/this mornings test holds up to inspection on a push back from this 150 level. If it probes north of 5215 it’ll trip a few nervous stops.
Average days play takes price down to the 1.51 figure which corresponds with last weeks lows if they carry the weeks momentum forward.
The closest significant low area is now at 1.5150, the zone of last weeks reaction lows.
If this probe for continuation stop orders picks up a head of steam then it will serve as a recognized break of the prior swing low (5150) & maintain that order of technical relevance, yes.
Profit taking at the average days range down here at the 51 handle is to be expected & the 52 handle takes on short term importance where offers will now begin congregating mixed in amongst buy orders (tiered through 5210).
Any moves back up will go through the usual dominant order absorption exercise (working through offers) to either reassert a bullish stance, or give up the ghost & get repelled back on heavier short dominance.
Next visible downside step from here opens up 1.5050.
Danny (on the bid) is short through Monday’s low.
I understand Jimmy, Tess & couple of their guys also have orders tripping through their normal triggers on Euro & Cable (both prior day & week low levels etc) that they’ve regularly posted & commented on these threads.
I saw Carll posting a live one earlier via his usual set up on Cable as it backed off 5170 for the 2nd time, so yeah I guess they’re continuing to jump all over it.
I’m trading the crosses this week, but the set ups are the same. Momentum entries trading with the bias through common levels & zones that are well publicised on here.
Technicals don’t lie & they also have a pretty neat habit of repeating their behavior over & over.
Thing is, you’ve got to honor your own personal rules & set ups, & if you can’t get a fair value trigger into the flows, then you got to stand aside.
Only you know how & why your set ups leg you in & out & what kind of returns they stack up v/s the risk you’re prepared to lay.