My kind of trading:D
Ambush enough of those little moves, and one of them turned into a full blown stampede;)
Makes a lot of sense but I personally never had the balls to bungee off cliffs 
I see the potential though and I’ll be happy to test it once I have a good grasp of what I’m busy with nowdays. First things first as they say.
Regarding your trade though, I noticed that very soon after you got on board you were in more than 50 pips profit. Wouldn’t this -or the fact that 4800 was rejected 4 times within a few hours- have been a reason to at least set your stops to breakeven?
Indeed.
The few that break out & quickly grow (aggressive) legs without looking back make up for a lot of the scratches & small loss entries that account for the costs of doing business operating that type of set up play. 
Absolutely, & I fully agree with that outlook.
You must be disciplined & stick with your plan at all times. Don’t get distracted or lured down paths that compromize your structure. Plenty of time to look at alternative set ups/strategies when you’ve got your primary style nailed down tight.
In that particular example quitter, the entry occurred after the London close & tapered off into the late New York/early Tokyo shifts. (I sleep during Tokyo).
I took a decision to let that one either live until I got to it the next morning & see if Tokyo could defend & perhaps run it further, or die on a test of the strength of the demand down there.
Had it been an entry during normal business hours, I’d have handled it slightly differently (size as well as management), but as I said – it offered a good risk to value deal, hence the loose rein.
Trades at that time of the business day are few & far between for me to be honest, so sometimes you just got to roll with it.
As long as I can compute acceptable risk I’ll step up.
The GBP,EUR,CHF seem to be in extremely high demand early in the afternoon. I’m not even sure what could drive these kinds of moves without a major market open…
Altho I think most brokers would show this as a gap, oanda keeps printing candlesticks every hour of the day. It took off after about 2:00PM EDT. Other pairs are feeling the flows but none as drastically as GBP,EUR,CHF.
sometimes I really wish I was in the interbank loop, getting tips all day haha 
It’s all very well having access to that type of exposure, but unless there are opportunities opening out at that particular time period, in any of those instruments that fit your pre-defined strategy model, it’s simply high risk, low value execution.
You shouldn’t really have too much of a problem unearthing high value, low risk opportunities during the heavily active volume periods of the typical weekly currency cycle.
It’s all about discipline & patience.
It’s also about obtaining decent fills & keying in & out of active market flows & that objective is usually facilitated during normal London business flows.
I don’t know about you, but my best returns & safest execution set ups nearly always return the highest odds figures when most of the market players are also active on the price ladder.
The added bonus of that scenario is executing my shorts when most of the herd are buying into supply & executing my longs when most of the herd are selling into demand. That scenario is at it’s height when the marketplace is operating at or near it’s maximum capacity 
I agree completely jjay, but I’m sitting on a long GBP/USD trade I entered at the london open on friday. My first instinct is to take profit on such a ridiculous movement at this hour, but I’ve also seen in my time pairs jump off the sunday open and never look back till thursday or friday. I’d like to be in on that if that’s what’s in the cards for the GBP
Sure, but you don’t trade on 1st instincts do you?!
You’ll have an aim or objective for that trade I assume? Part of that aim or objective will (should) include step management of that position. That’s if it’s anything other than an intra-day stake.
In other words, regardless of the time of day/week that your position cycles through the price motion, you’ll have (or should have) a very definite plan of action already in place.
Whatever happens after you enter your bet, you should never be in a situation where you’re either surprised or indecisive about making a decision.
If you are, then that position is not based on a clear objective.
Whatever you decide, I wish you good fortune with it!
jjay, excellent advice. I’ve been having trouble staying in a trade with larger R-multiple potentials. I start taking a little bit off, in the name of risk management but it somehow turns into me taking the whole bet off way before I had intended. Fear-based I’m sure, but I’ll remember what you said whenever it happens again.
Are you currently in experimental mode with your position trailing/management structure akeakamai?
How would you normally manage a trade like that in similar circumstances?
Have you measured & tested the outcome of trailing a full bet size to natural completion v/s scaling out (& scaling in) at pre-defined technical stages?
A lot will depend on how long you typically run your positions for when prices move through levels that dictate your strategy will begin registering above average % ticket returns.
It will also have a bearing on whether you scale back in after removing partial bet sizes from your stake.
By that, I’m referring to whether you add to a successful trade once it meets your qualifying criteria.
But of course the primer for all of that will rotate around how you measure & identify your trade management requirements.
I guess in order for you to even begin considering whether or not to run a position, it will have to exhibit very specific & repetitive behavior patterns first.
If it doesn’t, then it will be managed via a much shorter & tighter leash.
I had problems with trade management for a long time as well. I put too much effort into finding the perfect mix but the truth is it doesn’t matter nearly as much as it appeares to. Well… it does, but it has nothing to do with the overall outcome of your trades, your entries in and around key areas are meant to take care of that.
In my experience position management affects your equity curve in the first place. If your rules are loose, you will take large winners but if you decide to keep it tight, your gains will be smaller, but more [I]frequent[/I]. Practicing complex trade management in order to enhance profits at ealry stages is simply greed driven.
Just decide wether you feel comfortable with taking smaller but frequent profits or you can stomach a series of losses for a larger gain. Choose your (simple)management methods accordingly, stick to them at all costs and remember that anything above 1R is outstanding profit.
If you are a beginner like myself, your only goal should be to build a solid foundation and learn to place yourself on the right side first. The easiest way there is if you clear your approach from distracting elements.
Once you have your entries down you can fiddle about with them but maybe you’ll find you dont even need to…
Price got bracketed & keyed off that 440-460 channel really positively yesterday Jocelyn. 2 very clear opportunities during the afternoon London session for those so inclined.
It’s now being drawn back for it’s 2nd bounce today too.
Were you tempted to get long on the drop back into your demand level today on the bid?
It sure did. Looked pretty rosy for a continued pop this morning too until the dark clouds (credit downgrade rumors/heavy sovereign sales) began to gather. Once eurgbp eased off, it capped the upside & took the wind out of the eurusd sails.
Too much covering playing out up there beyond 1.35 to keep it buoyed today.
Should offer incentives though if the bids support it at this channel zone. It will need to act as a cushion here again to offer uplift, otherwise there’s a lot of clear air back down!
You haven’t played either of those bounces into the NY trade have you?
They’re low value plays, regardless of your model set up/trigger signals.
These are times when you need to over ride the automatic signal set ups & err on the side of caution (lower highs & lows + prior high caps etc). The real engine work has been done during the European shift.
It often pays to sit tight & watch for further confirmation before re-engaging. Especially ahead of a holiday weekend & a major data release.
Keen heads will be cashing to profit leading into that double header.
No. It signalled ideal entries during the Asian session again this morning, so that automatically dealt me out of the game.
I’ve learnt to stand aside now if my ideal entry goes awry. Demo testing shook me out of chasing desperation trades thankfully. It also highlighted that the better opportunity entries are generally during the London session too.
So it’s been a no-trade day for me unfortunately.
The eur/jpy has also been flattening out today & the price action backs up exactly what you’ve said.
Frustrating, but there you go.
[QUOTE=carll;182703]
The eur/jpy has also been flattening out today & the price action backs up exactly what you’ve said.
Frustrating, but there you go.[/QUOTE]
EJ has been coiling up around 125. for two days now so it’s definitely worth keeping an eye on in the near future.
What do you think kid?
I certainly didn’t see any selling being undertaken up there from exporters or a tick up in repatriation fund flows Monday or yesterday, did you?
So if we didn’t see any signs of selling into quarter end closure, what do you suppose those already long off the lower breakout were up to?
We already identified the likely bid zone as 92.20/40 where players were happy to accumulate it leading into quarter end closure, right?
What did your trigger combo tell you about the action yesterday down at the bid zone? Would you by any chance have gotten a hook up on your stochastic, supported by a positive moving average shoulder around the 92.20 level?
We also identified this upper ledge at 93.50/75 as the next area of potential supply, referenced by the behavior of the price activity the last time it got bounced from there in January.
I don’t know about you, but in my book that represented an above average value long bet option for a pop up through the stops into a likely level of waiting offers.
Yes it’s a focal point for sure quitter.
There’s a very visible bracket above this resistance zone that will encourage those long from underneath to hold if price manages to push thru & consolidate this tricky ceiling.
This is a snag from earlier in the month as it began probing for stops inside the channel.
And the story of the month long activity as price attracts lower support on sales at the resistance. Buyers have good value into this lower ceiling testing for follow thru.
I see what you’re getting at about trading at levels that not only offer potentially higher odds of success, but also reduces the risk on the trade too.
Yes, it did hook up at the pullback. In fact it hooked twice, presenting a positive divergence. 
Not many rich pickings for me this week at all. Most of the cleaner & higher value entries have unfolded during the Tokyo trading window, but my favorite pair has presented a typical set up just now at the 126.25 level.
It offers a nice, tight risk placement & if it obliges by continuing up with the current bias, I’ll aim initially for Jocelyn’s next upper resistance line at 126.90.
If it manages to cover it’s average day’s range, then that will take it to the 127.50 area. Regardless of that, the risk to potential reward ratio is too tempting to pass up!
That’s a decent odds lay.
If you continually seek out & execute those types of bets you won’t go far wrong.
Market is struggling to put it’s pants on today. Not surprising really ahead of a long weekend. That pair has barely covered 38% of it’s normal range & we’re ticking into the London afternoon leg already.
The terms paint, dry & watching spring to mind!
You’ll always achieve maximum value if you’re prepared to wait & allow the market to show it’s hand.
And you’ll then get paid at the expense of those who disregard patience & discipline, as long as you plan your work meticulously of course & work that plan only when the odds are stacked in your corner.
I agree. It’s actually a very similar deal to the usdjpy gig that Danny (on the bid) posted up this week off the 92.20 support level.
And if it’s used in tandem with the standard basic s&r template work then it’ll register & confirm exactly the same information as a buck naked chart.
This is in fact a pretty good example of it working in symmetry.
Primary s&r brackets identified at the 125.20 & 126.90
Local s&r levels highly visible at the shallow pullback during Tokyo, signifying lack of supply beyond the round number.
Keep your stops below that s&r zone underneath the 1.26 & you’re allowing the market to work through the orders accumulating a head of steam to probe for more upside stops.
The long side is a dead duck if it backs away from this round number demand level & loses the upside momentum……
but the longer it’s propped there in that shallow channel absorbing the sell orders there’s no reason to do anything other than sit it out.
As with all these common & repetitive momentum shifts, you’re looking for the market to show [B][U]intent[/U][/B].
It needs to prove to you that your order book is the correct side of the flow.
15 min highlighting the follow thru break & test of the lower line & support off the North American close.
And the trigger chart with his working template. You can more or less take your pick as to where you trigger. Could even compound it I guess as long as it honors the bias & accumulation behavior.
It managed to cover it’s daily range ok.
That will about do it now that London has closed up for the weekend.
I’d imagine the market will be extremely thin tomorrow for the Non Farm Payroll data. Definitely a day for quaffing beer & scoffing hot cross buns!
Jocelyn/guys,
I’ve dialled out on this 4 hour chart looking for the next possible upside zones that might attract attention if the momentum remains bullish on this pair.
I assume I’m in the ballpark adjusting my sights using that time reference in this manner?
I’ve marked the area’s with a blue line.
They’re simply next line swing reaction failures at:
128.5
129.5 &
131.0
