The 3 Duck's Trading System

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371

I hope this helps you.

Eur.Gbp gave us a nice “set and forget” 20 pip stop-loss, 40 pip reward trade set-up yesterday (chart attached)

Here Is An Idea Of My Current View On Some Currency Pairs Using The 3 Ducks Trading System.

December 14th 2011 at approx 11am Dublin Time;

Eur.Usd – current spot price is 1.3035, I would be looking for selling opportunities when my 3 ducks line up.

Gbp.Usd – current spot price is 1.5502, I would be looking for selling opportunities when my 3 ducks line up.

Eur.Gbp – current spot price is 0.8407, the GBP is stronger than the Euro at the moment and I would be looking for selling opportunities when my 3 ducks line up.

Usd.Chf – current spot price is 0.9461, I would be looking for buying opportunities when my 3 ducks line up.

Aud.Usd – current spot price is 1.0011, neutral on this pair at the moment. A break and hold below the 0.9980 level would help get me bearish on this pair.

Usd.Cad – current spot price is 1.0341, neutral on this pair at the moment. A break and hold above the 1.0400 level would help get me bullish on this pair.

Usd.Jpy – current spot price is 78.00, neutral on this pair at the moment.

Eur.Jpy – current spot price is 101.57, I would be looking for selling opportunities when my 3 ducks line up.

Hope that helps you.

Keep it Simple,
Andy

These are not trade recommendations. The 3 Duck’s Trading System is best used as a set of guidelines with discretion in addition with your own market analysis and trading ideas.

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372

That trade is beautiful. You have put together a great profit making logical simple system. I have recommended it to many of my trading friends.

Seasoned trader from Texas

373

A logical, effortless under-the-radar method/thread that does exactly what it says on the tin.
They really don’t make them any more straightforward than this.

Play it smart by keeping it simple!

374

It’s not often you see that smaller, but common moving average used across a combination timeframe approach. Is that your trial & error set up Andy or have you adapted it from another (other) sources?

Reason I ask is the only other guys I’ve seen playing that one consistently over the past 15 or so years are Jimmy Young & Art Krantz. They’ve both got small & medium term strategies that include & work that average.

375

I’m not sure if he’s still trading it these days but Jim used the 60sma as the anchor of a 3 band wave on the smaller timeframe/s, using it as the trigger off a directional top down approach. But I’m sure it was eur/usd exclusive?

How long have you known Krantz?
I don’t recall seeing him reference a moving average lately (post 2006). But I didn’t bump shoulders with him in his previous life so I’m on limited look back.
He’s an occasional contributor in a live room I regularly frequent.

376

It was a fair while back so I can’t be certain, but I think he used it across a couple of other high liquid pairs with alterations to the band parameters & trigger confirmations.

19 years & counting.
I helped run a Paltalk room with him for quite a spell back in the early 00’s.

He used it as part of a trigger on anything he was trading at the time & across all chart grids. But it was backed up with very accurate logs specific to individual pairs or instruments based on momentum & range stats rolled over a 20 day average. Not particularly complex, just very precise in its implementation. I doubt much has changed since apart from the stats required to direct the entries & exits.

Looking at it, Capt Currency is presenting & advising it as a sort of added confirmer/comfort blanket type drill, which is a cool way of encouraging folks, & especially those fresh into this business, to get their top down approach nailed down & into focus.

Strict guidelines with an added flavor of discretionary & flexible entry & trade management. Pretty clever combination for those who can control their discipline & patience.

377

Hi DoubleEcho,
It’s quite clear from your posts, especially the ones on this thread, that you know your way around a price chart. I’ve been a follower of Andy’s fabulous strategy since I came across it on another forum in August & recently got linked here.

I’ve enjoyed reading your input & up to quite recently have been trading entries in line with the original recommendations. However, whereas grab pips was seeking a helping hand with exits, I’m interested in exploring alternative options around entries.

Obviously Andy encourages followers to use their discretion when firming up the specifics of entry, trade management & exits - using the 3 Ducks more as a roadmap. You have also reiterated that line & I appreciate where you’re both coming from.

As an example of recent price action, I’ve been trading a long only view on USDCAD, with a short break during the middle of November when it failed to trade new highs & turned negative on the 1 & 4 hour charts, & recently flipped back to a long view on GBPAUD, for similar reasons. I don’t hold any fears about rolling positions over & that is my preference whenever the opportunity presents itself, but your various comments regards different entry oportunities has had me thinking whether I might pick your brains for this setup.

Input is also welcomed from the other most recent thread posters trading this method about what types of entries they’ve found to be beneficial. I realise everyone’s risk attitudes & trading objectives will be different, but would appreciate feedback nonetheless.

There’s some good quality posts on this thread which is nice to see.

378

One option would be to view potential entries as pullbacks & trade them accordingly.
Your primary (4&1hour) timeframes get you in step with the flows & your secondary (5min) trigger chart legs you into the bet.

Once you’re seated you then automatically click across into trade management mode & depending on the strength of the move, either play it as an intraday bet or roll it over & run it until your specific exit criteria tells you otherwise.

By playing the entry as an early bird pullback as opposed to a break up/down through a natural swing high/low on that 5minute chart, there will be occasions where your bet will trigger in conflict to the 60sma on that timeframe. That’s a trade-off or compromize you’re going to have to accept if you want to explore alternatives.

But that’s what makes a successful model. Without abandoning the key structure of the template, you’re simply blending your personal risk & objective measures into the body of the framework & making it fit your requirements.

Regards the trigger, I’ll simply refer you here: 301 Moved Permanently & recommend you look up Carll’s posts in direct reference to the stochastic hook entry.
He uses it in on one of his models in very strict harmony with the average days range, which is a key ingredient of the material on that collection of work over there.

Take a look at the entry trigger & see if it hits the spot. I’m pretty sure you’ll find it will dovetail nicely as an optional trigger when circumstances dictate.

If you require any added assistance pop back here & holler. But to be honest it won’t take you 10 minutes to get it down.

There are 2 guys who evidence their live statements on a weekly basis who use a very similar model (triggering Carll’s set up) & they’re having a ball with it. But like anything else, it’s comes down to personal taste.

See how you get on.

379

"It’s beginning to look a lot like, Chri……

When I was growing up, they called it Christmas. Now, in order to offend no one, they call it nothing.

Happy Holidays Duck Hunters and I hope 2012 brings you plenty of pips.

Wise Men, Wise Words “Your Patience’s With The Market”
The Fx market may be quiet during holiday times so your patience’s with the market could be required.

“Wisdom”
Your Ducks may line up this week but a better trader will know that their Ducks will work best when there is good liquidity out there in the market.

Below Is An Idea of My Current View on Some Currency Pairs Using The 3 Ducks Trading System.

December 21th 2011 at approx 8am Dublin Time:

Eur.Usd – current spot price is 1.3120, I would be looking for selling opportunities when my 3 ducks line up. Price needs to get back below the 1.3000 area first,

Gbp.Usd – current spot price is 1.5713, neutral on this pair at the moment.

Eur.Gbp – current spot price is 0.8352, same as last week, the GBP is stronger than the Euro at the moment and I would be looking for selling opportunities when my 3 ducks line up.

Usd.Chf – current spot price is 0.9278, neutral on this pair at the moment.

Aud.Usd – current spot price is 1.0194, the bullish movement in the last 2 days has bucked the recent down swing so I’m neutral on this pair at the moment.

Usd.Cad – current spot price is 1.0239, the bearish movement in the last 2 days has bucked the recent up swing so I’m neutral on this pair at the moment.

Usd.Jpy – current spot price is 77.73, neutral on this pair at the moment. This pair has been going sideways for the last 4 weeks so boring for a trend trader!

Eur.Jpy – current spot price is 101.98, I would be looking for selling opportunities when my 3 ducks line up. A break below the 101.60 area is needed first.

Hope that helps you.

Until next time Buddy, Keep it Simple

Andy

These are not trade recommendations. The 3 Ducks Trading System is best used as a set of guidelines with discretion in addition with your own market analysis and trading ideas. I do not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.


380

Thank you very much. That’s a nifty little option isn’t it. I’ve done some initial testing yesterday & this morning on 3 pairs going back to June & will continue researching various scenarios across a broader selection over the Xmas break.

It certainly gets you in early with some very impressive risk to reward returns when the 4 & 1 hour filters confirm & maintain a directional move.

I’ve also noticed how it can help reduce potential losses when a move fails to continue trading through the next nearest high or low on that 5 minute timeframe as per the original entry recommendation, which really piques my interest. Anything that can assist in controlling losses will definitely earn a gold star in my book & I’m going to focus on investigating that aspect further over the next 2 weeks while the market is quiet.

I note your compromise comment & appreciate they will have to be accepted & acknowledged. I already realise there’s no such thing as a perfect fit.

That thread looks an interesting read. I’ve bookmarked it for my next browsing topic.
Thanks again for your direction. If I have any further queries I certainly know where to come.

Merry Xmas everyone.

Those are wise words indeed Andy. I’ve read where the market can distort the technicals during holiday periods due to lower liquidity. I can’t really see the point in taking on excessive & unecessary risk when these low liquidity periods only last a few very short weeks in the year.

Better to save the money, risk & time for when the market can reflect a more solid footing.

Nice attachment by the way :slight_smile:

381

You won’t have any complaints with that hook trigger shadowline.

Apparently Carll has been using it consistently on 2 strategies for nearly 3 years & I’ve been using it since July trading both the 3 Ducks + a slight variation of it without any problems whatsoever.

As long as you honour the higher timeframe bias filter by only placing trades on the 5 minute chart in the direction of that bias, you’ll keep the odds on your side over the long run.

You won’t be immune to losses or suffering frustrating stop outs when price is rotating between a trending move & a range, or when conditions cause the price to get pushed backwards & forwards in sharp each way reactions, but as long as you resist the urge to add more filters to this method & trade what the price action tells you, you’ll limit the damage when things don’t quite go to plan & reap the benefits when they do.

Merry Xmas to you too.

383

Hello Duck Hunters,

Last 3 Ducks trade for 2011.

Selling Eur.Gbp with a 20 pip stop-loss and a 40 pip take profit (hit).

See you all in 2012.

3 Ducks ebook;
If anybody is interested in doing a small bit of reading over the holidays you can pick up a free copy of The 3 Duck’s Trading System ebook on The Captain Currency blog.

Andy

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Andy,

Hi, I’ve just e-mailed you using hotmail. Please could you send me the e-book, I am really interested in learning your system and I have plenty of time over Xmas, my fiance is a nurse…no rest for the wicked eh.

Thanks Mate and have a good Xmas

Greg

385

A quick question before we start trading in 2012…

Question
Might you be a bit of a “Dabbling Duck”?

Dabbler
Let me just explain what a Dabbler is; a “dabbler” is someone who engages in an activity such as trading superficially or without serious intent.

Hold on, don’t answer just yet.

Therefore a “Dabbling Duck” might be a trader who;

1) Looks at the 3 Ducks Method every now and again without any real plan or serious intent to trade with it.

2) A “Dabbling Duck” might be a trader who looks at their charts hours after the 3 Ducks lined up and say something like “I cudda had that one”.

3) A “Dabbling Duck” might be a trader who is lacking a clear plan and approach to their trading at the moment.

Do ya reckon ya might be a bit of a Dabbling Duck? I wont tell another person.

The opposite to a “Dabbling Duck” might be a “Diving Duck”

A “Diving Duck” might be a trader who is

1) Fully committed to trading with the 3 Ducks and has a clear plan and approach to their trading.

2) A “Diving Duck” might be a trader who fully understands what the 3 Ducks are trying to achieve and knows that the 3 Ducks are putting the probabilities in their favor.

Good trading to you in 2012,

Andy

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386

The 3 ducks is a great little system, so is the Stochastics, rsi, bollingers (there are so many) etc., but still sometimes there are many fake breakouts with these indicators. However, after several years now the only thing I have found to be consistent is the ichimoku and only using this on the daily tenken-sen cross, perhaps with a chikou price cross for good measure, it is free, robust and reliable, the only indicator - apart from gann - to take price/time into the equation. If you can cope with the mental strength required to hold your position (whipsaw) until the opposite cross to exit or take a new position you will be rewarded with several hundred pips!!

387

There are false starts & premature knock-outs with everything connected to trading markets, regardless of what you’re using. That is something you’re simply going to have to accept as part & parcel of trading.

The real skill is in developing the ability to recognize when an opportunity presents itself to run your profits & ensure you take maximum advantage of it. Along with a solid appreciation & application of risk, maximizing profitable opportunities will help to offset the occasions when entries have to be scratched or cashed in via your protective stop loss orders.

It appears from your first post on this thread back in February, you haven’t been trading for very long, so how do you explain the statement below if you haven’t actually measured & determined a sufficiently viable time comparison between the 2 methods to arrive at that conclusion?

388

Hello AltTab

My apologies and correction, a few months, I should have said “quite a few months”. I think it must be almost 2.5 years now or there about it just feels longer lol… You are quite right of course, all these methods have their great and good. I understand when you say “the real skill is in developing the ability to recognize when an opportunity presents itself and letting profits run etc and/or scratching the trade”, from harmonic patterns, andrews pitchfork to rsi and everything (including 3 ducks) in between, I have been on ichimoku for only a few months now, so very early days, on eur/usd I went short on the daily cross of the tenken-sen around 1.3420 and I am still short until Ichimoku daily crosses back long (my stop loss). This system (ichimoku) is the only thing that has thus far given me the confidence to not only take a trade but to stay in it for several hundred pips, over a number of days and sometimes weeks.

389

No need to apologize man, I was just having difficulty connecting the dots between the two statements.

If you can surround yourself with something that not only makes sense but enables you to weave in & out of the market with relative safety & confidence whilst putting money in your pocket, then you’re onto a good thing.

The objective is to win more than you lose over the long haul. Whether it’s the 3 Ducks, ichimoku or a combination of sorts that achieves that aim, I don’t guess it really matters does it.

The concept of 3 Ducks isn’t new by any stretch, is light on bells & whistles, & won’t appeal to everyone’s taste buds, but as a solid workhorse it will stand shoulder to shoulder with anything else out there.

Good luck for next year.

390

Hi Captain and all your Ducklings

I seen a reference to this thread on another thread yesterday and thought I would give it a read.
I have only read the first and last pages so far, but I will read the rest over the weekend.
It looks like it will fit in with my in the works trading plan.

[B]2)[/B] A “Dabbling Duck” might be a trader who looks at their charts hours after the 3 Ducks lined up and say something like “I cudda had that one”.

I don’t think this in a bad thing it will help you know what to look for to get #1 and #3 under control.

Do ya reckon ya might be a bit of a Dabbling Duck? I wont tell another person.

Oh yea :57:

The opposite to a “Dabbling Duck” might be a “Diving Duck”

[B]A “Diving Duck” might be a trader who is [/B]

[B]1)[/B] Fully committed to trading with the 3 Ducks and has a clear plan and approach to their trading.

[B]2)[/B] A “Diving Duck” might be a trader who fully understands what the 3 Ducks are trying to achieve and knows that the 3 Ducks are putting the probabilities in their favor.

This I will work on in 2012

391

Thank you, I think it relevant for a number of reasons to point out that I on my early journey paid somewhere in the region of $600 to a guy called Jacko over at FF to get ripped off. I hope you will understand if I can avoid someone else wasting their hard earned money to a cause or etc.,when they are no better off or are just being pulled into the usual stuff and bull****! when all they need to do is there homework and if they work full-time then there best bet can only be the Ichimoku on the daily timeframe. These newbies do not need the Jacko’s or Jackals, they only need a well thought out system that took over many, years, it took 20 years for Goichi Hosoda to perfect his system, which deserves a huge respect. Someone called Gabor Kovacs and Nicole Elliott appear to be experts, I do not know. We have to find our own way!