Hey everybody!
Does anyone know how to avoid those stupid fake breakouts with the 3 ducks?
It drives me crazy. It always looks good afterwards and on the pictures and videos cc posts, but recently most of the times it always breaks and goes back into the range.
I havenât tried it myself but somewhere in this thread itâs mentioned about using a carrll s stoch hook from the technical templates thread
thx for info. is there any source about stochastic hooks on the internet?
I doubt it.
The trigger Donovanâs referring to is something that was modified & tested by a member who used to post on this thread 301 Moved Permanently
Itâs utilized as a continuation pullback trigger on 60, 15 and/or 5min timeframes betting in sync with a dominant trend.
If you conduct a search for Carll it will direct you to the relevant material & you can pick up the trail from there.
With the Aud/Usd & Nzd/Usd at their highs on the 1H & 4H but still trending up strongly should one go to the Daily TF to look for potential TPs or just skip for now? I like the trend but donât like trading when price is at the top of 1H & 4H. Comments?
The next logical technical destination can be plotted from whichever timeframe itâs visible on.
.8400-20 is the next potential resistance level from February 25 on nzd/usd & 1.0570-1.06 the next potential resistance level from January 10 through 23 on aud/usd, both of which can be viewed from my 4 hour charts. Just pick whichever timeframe offers the clearer perspective.
I guess entering fresh positions or adding to existing bets at any level will be dictated by your usual trade plan.
If you donât already have a plan in place to account for the types of conditions you describe then you have no choice but to sit it out & wait until they do line up.
You can control your entry level, your bet size & the amount of risk youâre willing to accept. The one thing you canât directly control is how far & how quickly or slowly price will travel.
High dobro,
IMHO you should stick to your trading plan and personal risk profile first and foremost. You stated in your comment that you âlike the trend but donât like trading when price is at the top of 1H & 4H.â
For me when I trade the 3 Ducks I personally like to let the market stop me out and will let my trades run until a LH (lower high) or HL (higher low) is made. Hopefully this will allow me to catch the bigger moves by staying in the trend.
However for the sake of debate, if I were to set a target profit by the higher time frame via the daily I would target the next area of congestion, previous support, or prior resistance zone.
For example on the NZD/USD daily I would target prior resistance since price has already broke prior support.
And for the AUD/USD daily I would target the next prior support which also was a resistance.
Each of these levels should act as a magnet attracting market players small and large. After contact of the point of magnetism I would expect that it would become a potential market pivot and evaluate the markets reaction at that time. But thatâs another discussion.
Hope that helps and maybe give others ideas.
Happy Duck Hunting dobro and all.
Thanks pipseye - I just wanted to know if others were scared off when they see a pair at a high (or low) on the 1H & 4H TFs. I am never sure if the pr will continue on or start reversing; the MAs the Captain uses point to the 3 trends so I feel I could go to the D for S/R areas for TP & SL. Itâs a good strategy and I reread Tessâs comment about how the 3 Ducks gets one trading with the trend. d.
The only people who are likely to get scared off or shaken out dobro are those who have no solid framework in place for dealing with trading fresh highs & lows.
If you prefer not to place bets on breakouts then play the pullbacks.
Youâre already familiar with one such pullback tactic mentioned here & revisited again recently.
No-one is.
As odds on said, the only things youâre in total control of when you step up are the location of your entries, your designated risk & bet size for that specific position.
Where it ends up is out of your control.
You can forward plan for a likely profit level based on prior swing or s&r areas, but the best you can do after entry is manage the progress based on your objective for that particular trade.
every body is different but what I do is set the stop for the amount I want to risk. A good trader will risk no more than 2% of there account, If you are trading with 1 cent lots and you use three lots to trade with and your stop loss is set at 30 pips your risk is .90 cents if you have a 100.00 dollar account 2% = 2.00 so you could actually trade with 6- 8 lots and not go over 2%. This of course is just one mans opinion.
I had learned that there is an 80% chance that there will be a weekly reversal some time between sundays open and wensdays NYO, figuring out when or ware those weekly highs or lows are is another problem lol.
I heard somewhere that if you are trailing stop loss, you should also be trailing take profits.
Why? if you reduce your stop loss, then you are reducing your odds for win, so to get the same odds as the beginning, you should also reduce your target to get about the same probability.
If you are trading with set and forget, I think you should set a wide enough (maybe 100-300 pips) stop loss to allow your trade to breath.
Iâm new to this thread. I have downloaded and read the 3 duckies. I understand that we trade long/short when price is above/below the 60smaâs. Is it just this simple? For longs, does it matter whether the 60smaâs are rising or falling? Seems it should be up for longs (trending up) and down for shorts (trending down). The book says it doesnât matter how far above/below the sma prices are, but doesnât mention sma direction or slope. As this is a trend following framework, I would think direction (and maybe even slope) would be important - or am I getting too detailed?
I note in the Good Captainâs charts that the sma slopes are rising quite sharply, but in other posted charts (early posts) long trades have been shown with down sloping smaâs but prices above the line.
Builder - Iâm not an expert with this strategy but I do know that trading with the longer trend, in this case the 4H, can yield overall better results. Trading against the trend is just riskier but then again, maybe the trend is reversing and you are catching the reverse at the very begining - so use a smaller position, add to it later if your entry is correct (optional).
I entered a 'set & forget" of 40TP/20SL short for the usd/chf and got stopped out. Funnymentals, which I donât use for analysis, would have said that with the US dollar bad news this a.m., a short should have been a winner but not today. Hard to figure what to do sometimes.
Dear Captain maybe you will reply here since not on mail. My question is what if already candle is above the last high on M5? I usually see SMA is below price,yet price goes up.Do I engage in business?