The 3 Duck's Trading System

What is this about :)?

vpp,

I’ll give you my quack opinion, wait for the next good set-up.

Try to find 2-3 real nice set-ups per week and make the effort to successfully follow the 3-ducks guidelines presented by Andy.

In the long run following the guidelines will do more for your trading confidence and your profit/loss then just hitting the buy button because the price is moving.

Hope that helps & makes sense.

Thank you :slight_smile:

P.s . how does a nice set up look like?

Thanks Captain :). I found a few ducks some fulled me and some did not, yet I left the trade over night so I lost.But ok everything is a school. Maybe they were wild ducks :stuck_out_tongue: . Not domesticated.

hi captain

i have problem with buy position .


this is correct place ??

Bit hard for me to see that chart,your buy is the dotted line right?
If so yes it seems a good level though personally with another obvious high not far above I would look to take the buy there instead.

Captain

I was working with 3 ducks and now with daily price action, and I want to know if there is a way that you had experimented to join daily price action with 3 ducks to improve results. Something like using d1, h4, and h1 instead of h4,h1,m5 or something like that.

Thanks

Hi Everyone

I was wondering if anyone had produced a Expert Advisor (EA) for the 3 Ducks?

I know the Captain say’s that this is a discretionary system but I have noticed some great moves in the Asian period when I am asleep. Also there are a lot of people that work during the day and can’t watch the markets, so to me it makes sense. Also it can be used to backtest different exit strategies.

A good system is designed as a filter to keep you out of the market until conditions are right.

So with this in mind I built a 3 Ducks indicator for MetaTrader 4 (MT4) some time ago and was thinking of using this as the basis for a EA as the indicator worked so well.

The indicator uses only the 5min chart, so I use a 2880 period sma to replicate the 4hr 60sma (12 x 5mins in an hour x 4 hours x 60 periods = 2880) and a 720 period sma to replicate the 1hr 60sma (12 x 5min in an hour x 1 hour x 60 periods = 720).
The 60 period sma on the 5min is actually not required for entry as you only enter on a new high or low, above or below it. To simulate a position for the entry point I use the MMR_HighLowLines.mq4 indicator available from codebase. Setting this to 48 periods adds a line to the 5min chart the gives the high’s and low’s of the last 4 hours (48 x 5min periods = 4hrs). I set the middle line to no colour. Try this indicator at 144 (12 hours) and 288 (a day) to, as these work well too.

Visually this works very well as you have all the information you need on one chart. I then used an old alerts indicator which I modded to add add entry arrows and an alert message box and adio for trade entry.

To avoid entry on a spike I use the open of the next candle if it is still > the 48 period high before the spike. My rational is that only the open of the candle is fixed, as during its five minute creation the high, low and close are unknown until the period end. This can lose you a few pips on entry sometimes but can also stop you getting into a fakeout.

There are a number of issues I would like feedback on please and I know they are issues for a lot of you too. Stops and targets are a big issue and if you have read anything by Van Tharp then you will know that entry is almost unimportant, as it is position sizing and exit that make you money.

So for me the trade is no longer valid on a move back below the 60 sma as the Ducks don’t align. So the the distance between the 60sma and the entry point is our initial risk in pips and is 1R.

As we are trading basically a trend breakout system then winning trades are going to be around 50% or less so a risk to reward ratio needs to be above two. So we need a take profit target of 2.5 times our initial risk to stay in the game, so our target needs to be 2.5R or greater. However, there are bigger problems as pairs like EURGBP only move 50 pips in a day and EURUSD moves 120 pips so each pair needs a different approach and some pairs are probably not tradable.

Should our stop be ATR based?
Should we trail?
What have you found that works and is it pair specific?

The idea behind my EA would be to place a pending order at the 48 period high or low line when all 3 Ducks align in that direction, but stop and target and if trailing etc all need to known at that point. And expecting a 100 pip move on EURGBP is not going to happen.

Happy Duck hunting, Trader009.

Trader009 - Besides going against the originator’s wish, the Captain clearly states that the 4H is for seeing momentum. How can an indicator gauge momentum ie. the slope? That to me is the trader’s job done with eyes.

Hi dobro

I did say the Captain said the system was discretionary. In answer to your question about the slope, then that is easy, you just have to decide over what period you want to measure the sma’s.

In my EA I compare the 4H and the 1H sma’s with yesterday and if today is higher then the slope is up. I have added a slope or no slope switch to the EA and I can tell you the gains are greater if you ignore the slope. The reason for this is a rising market is often near its peak and it is therefore much better to get in on a pullback before the next move up.

Early testing with the EA indicates EURJPY is a good pair to trade with a 25 pip stop and a 60 pip target and the gains halved when I used the slope as a filter.

Set up a 5min chart with 3 sma’s 60, 720 and 2880 then add the MMR_HighLowLine indicator set to 48 or 60 periods and you will see how much easier it is to spot 3 Duck setups. Then check out some of the great moves when the 4H and 1H don’t agree.

Regards, Trader009.

Hi trader009, thanks for your input on stop loss n target price on eurjpy. From e arlier discussion s Ive the impression that slope matters. So that’s a refreshing input. Not sure what you mean by this though’ Then check out some of the great moves when the 4H and 1H don’t agree.’ let me know if you need someone to help with the ea. Cheers.

Trader009 -

Good post. I am taking a week off but will test your idea when I get back. Now I have to load the camper in the rain! Good trading all -d.

Hi

Yes. Agreed with Captain. After retrace of price I’ll look for buying opportunity on GbpUsd. If we’re able to reach and stay on 1.5600 zone next week, hope to stay 1.56xx-1.58xx zone and it’s key points for GU to hold bullish trends. GbpJpy was broken key resistance on last Friday> And I’ll be with GJ too, for big move to the upside. Waiting for 3 Ducks again… :wink:
have a nice weekend.



Hi Folks,

I have written an EA for the 3 Duck strategy which I’ve had for a while now and I’ve have added it to a demo account this morning, results can be found here - 3 Ducks EA System | Myfxbook

Let me know if anyone wants a copy of the EA but it will be for use on a demo account only.

I should add that there is a set SL of 30pips and a set TP of 50pips. The lot size is based on 2% risk with the 30pip SL.
If the position doesnt hit it’s SL or TP then the position will be closed after 24hours.