Sorry to be a pain but could you indicate that on those charts i.e. on what bar you entered and why and on what basis did you place you initial stop loss.
Also: ANY chance you can make those charts a big bigger??? LOL!!! Sitting here for six years hasn’t done much for my eyesight (I’ve even had to go and buy some of those ‘off the shelf’ reading glasses to use when ‘solving’ Adam and it’s quite amusing to watch me doing it really). LOL!!!
Not being a pain. Just wanting to know YOUR theory and trying to help and compare notes.
Of course: IF and WHEN I get into a trade I’ll post accordingly as well i.e. reason for entering, reason for stop being placed at a certain level, what next to do, that type of thing. It’s the only way we’re going to ‘bed this down’
I entered long immediately after solving Adam. As you can see there isn’t any pullback, so I placed my stop below the low of the candle as indicated. Because Adam did not show any pull back therefore I just chose the candle with a recent low.
Well see the attached ZIPPED chart of yours with my comments and see what you think.
Adam was ALREADY showing you PROBABLE reactions to your long position that would hit your stop on two occasions (and on another two occasions it appears to have been ‘borderline’ i.e. I cannot clearly see how close price came to your stop on those two occasions but it was close).
Your chart looks good & it appears you have a grip on how to plot The Adam Theory. The price you entered looks correct, but the stop was a bit too tight it seems as the market kept going in the direction stated by Adam. Just my view & not being critical in any way. I appreciate you sharing your chart & trade information.
First: I was uploading them as attachments and not as images. That COULD be the reason. I just have ‘issues’ with these HUGE graphics that get included in posts as images and you’re FORCED to look at them (of course they’re download ‘on the fly’ to a temp folder before they’re visible so that not only wastes bandwidth but also slows the thread down and wastes my time)!!! LOL!!!
Second: what I was saying is that even on my big screen I’m having a hard time reading my white text on that chart (without using my reading glasses or putting my face against the screen)!!! LOL!!!
Your post #203 is right on & I am starting to realize what Adam is saying after having just finished my third read of the pdf. It is not preditive per say, but it is trying to keep us on track with the trend.
Actually I find it pretty amazing: so many people say that Wilder isnt ‘tradeable’ in today’s markets anymore … but somehow his ideas, if applied properly and maybe in a slighty ‘modified’ or ‘modernized’ way seem to be very effective still.
Dale, maybe once BC has reawakened from his coma (hehe), you could ask him to have a go at an ‘Adam Indicator’, if he has some free time; he has like 30+ years of coding experience and sounds like a good choice for a ‘project’ like this.
I don’t agree on the entry price being correct. The entry price was too early. As I noted: if you look at the Adam Second Reflection Chart there were at LEAST to ‘projected probable reactions’ that would have taken the stop out. That’s my interpretation and understanding. Read the book again. On one occasion Wilder sees a POSSIBLE entry point but also notices a ‘projected probable reaction’ that would go below his entry price so he waits for another entry price.
Look: I think this has merit thus far. No question. But I CAN tell you that you’re getting in VERY late when compared to the Swing Index System. Just taking EUR/JPY right now as an example: with the Swing Index System you would have made money short and now be making money long. But as I mentioned: it’s the unavoidable whipsaws that ‘pi*s’ me off’. I think Adam Theory, although you’re getting into a trade FAR later, could be where the BIG profits lie BUT you’ve got to have a LOT of patience and restraint and be prepared to use VERY wide stops. Nothing like the Swing Index System where your stop is ‘a couple of points (pips) above the high or below the low of the previous highest or previous lowest swing point made’.
Again: just observations.
I’ve ‘solved’ EUR/JPY and will upload it now (solved based on YESTERDAY’S DAILY CLOSE).
Actually: I’ll just add it to this email.
What I would be waiting for is a downturn (on the REAL chart) and then ‘solve’ Adam to ensure that no there is no ‘projected probable reaction’ that would go ABOVE my entry price. IF that ‘holds true’ then I’d go short and simply stay short until another ACTUAL reaction against my position occurs and then turns down again (hopefully). At THIS point you’d again 'solve ‘Adam’ and add to the short position by the number of initial positions open less one and move your stop to just above this latest reaction. So at THIS point now: lets say that you started with 10 positions (1 000 units each). You would now move your stop and add 9 positions (1 000 units each). At this point then not only is profit locked in ANYWAY BUT you’re now short 19 positions. And so on and so forth. So can you see how GIGANTIC a trade could become while never being susceptible to a loss but having an unlimited HUGE position(s) to the downside for example. I’m not saying to start with 10 positions. As with ANY system: the potential loss on your opeing of the position shoud not exceed 2% (but MAYBE 10% if you have the captal and can place your intial stop a good long way away from your entry price).
He’s the one that sent me the ‘Future Candles’ Indicator in the FIRST place (AFT he’d found it and ‘tinkered’ with it)!!! He seemed to think it had merit at the time but then he did a ‘disappearing act’.
I’d like to know where he’s gotten to. He’s not responded to two emails (one from me and one from another member). A bit odd.
As for those people saying things about Wilder: simple answer. They’re trading FOREX with moving averages and wiping out their accounts!!! LOL!!! UNFORTUNATELY (and as can been seen from this very thread let alone the Swing Index System): most of Wilder’s stuff requires a bit of EFFORT!!!
I just completed a double reflection chart on the EUR/USD using the daily tf. The results show the trend is up more for another three days just by looking at the chart using the acetate method. When I use this method the next three candles are all moving up, but how do we know from this method (acetate) what the stop will be & how much of a retrace there will be on each daily candle? Tks for any replys.
Well you don’t have to ‘solve’ Adam UNTIL EUR/USD turns around. After the close of THAT day you would ‘solve’ Adam, make sure that there are no ‘possible probable reactions’ that will go higher than your short entry price and then ‘go for it’ if that’s the case. The placement of your stop would be above the highest high of the ‘turn’. But that’s what I was saying in a previous post: WHERE??? Using ‘round figures’ as Wilder does in the book I don’t think applies to FOREX. For FOREX I would lean toward setting a stop at least 1 x ATR(14) from the CLOSE of this bar (possibly even 3 x ATR(14) or 3 x ATR(7) as this is the ATR offset used for the Volatility System if for no other reason). I guess it depends on how ‘safe’ you want to play it. Wider stops, less chance of getting stopped out for no reason, but smaller lot sizes. Take your pick!!! LOL!!!
I agree with your last post ref pipsaday entry point & the fact that Adam will require some wide stops at times & that is what I had stated to pipsaday. I see where you are coming from & I think I am going back to the drawing broad. In the pdf the term prediction is mention, but that is not what I think Adam is, it is only a guide into the future. Thanks for sharing your views.
Thanks for the comments. I entered the trade because I wanted to book some quick profits. As you can see from the chart, EUR is supposed to rally up before making a pullback.
It is good to receive so much ideas from all of you. I think I have to agree with AceTrader that the chart is meant as a guide about future trend. As the book said, only solve Adam when clue#1,2 or 3 appears. In this case, there wasn’t any clue and therefore no reason to solve Adam.
I hope that we can keep this type of discussion going, learning from trading success/mistakes. Thanks.
I agree with you that Adam showed a couple of pullbacks. I thought it would happen much later and thought I could book some quick profits befor the pullback. I think my understanding of Adam is wrong. It should not be traded this way. Thanks.
I’m afraid I have to agree with you when you say that you think your understanding of Adam is wrong!!! LOL!!!
But don’t worry: we’ll sort it out. I’m monitoring EUR/USD, Gold, Silver, and EUR/JPY. Of those four: I’ve a good feeling that at least EUR/JPY is going to yield a decent Adam Theory trade. I trade the major indices (as you probably know) and I can tell you that they’re due for a correction (if not a return to a bear market). That will take EUR/JPY down to the point where it’s ‘on its knees’. Alright: that’s a bit dramatic. But it should yield a very decent short trade and if the Adam chart that I ‘solved’ yesterday is anything to go by: once you’re in the short trade you’ll have ample opportunity to add to the short trade at certain intervals on the way down as well as a place to move your stops that will be effectively locking in profit ‘all the way’. It being Thursday (the stock market, for some reason, REALLY only ‘comes alive’ on Thursdays for some or the other inexplicable reason) today (tonight) could very well be time to ‘solve’ Adam and take a position!!! Let’s see what happens today.
Just a comment on your trade: I THINK you were trying to ‘pick a bottom’ (either consciously or subconsciously). Remember what Wilder says: Adam will ALWAYS be wrong at tops and bottoms. I’m not saying that this applies to you personally but this is NOT a system that will suit somebody who can sit and watch a trend change and ‘sit on their hands’ WISHING they were ‘in’ the trade and worried about the number of points (pips) they’re missing. While Adam may ‘push this envelope to the limit’ a bit: try to not get into the ‘I need to catch every first and last point (pip)’ habit. It’s a hard habit to break once its been developed.
