The Adam Theory of Markets by J. Welles Wilder Jnr

Beginner Questions
223

Dale & pipsaday,

I have now read the pdf four times & each time my eyes are opened wider. Now from all of those readings I am seeing Adam Theory as a guide with some predictive ability & yes you need to have 1,2 & 3 before you proceed. In the pdf the word predictive is mentioned, but is it to be taken literally, that is the question. I don’t think so, but then again Adam is showing you which direction you should be trading in, so yes that is somewhat preditive. Also mention is all markets & time frames, but again literally all time frames. I think so, but the shorter the more work & the less reliable the results & that is just my view. For day trading the 4H & Daily would most likly be the best, but again just my view.

Pipsaday…on your previous trade I was thinking you were trying to capture some quick in & out points on that one. That is what I would have done as well as I am a short term trader. The stop was just a bit too tight, but the direction was correct.

My conclusion on The Adam Theory is it is strong guiding light to the trend direction with some predictive ability & if the rules are followed you should keep yourself out of most bad trade decisions, but again it will require strick rule following.

The indicator for Adam Theory is something that should be investigated by Dale & anyone with coding knowledge. It would be so much easier to have an indicator plot the theory into the future. It does appear the Future Candle is attempting to do this, but I am just not sure how to read it. Maybe it is a good base to launch a new indicator from.

Yesterday just for an experiment, I plotted Adam on the EUR/JPY on a 15M tf & counted back 12 candles & once I flipped the acetate over it plotted the move ahead in the correct direction almost to the candle (the next 12 candle moved up). Had I traded this it produced 23-29 pips before it turned down, but it did not move down more that 10-12 pips before the up move resumed & it is still going up as I type. Now I know this is probably not what we should be doing with Adam Theory, but I just had to give this a try. That is some of the reason I state Adam Theory does have some preditive ability if the rules are followed. Base on following the rules, Adam is guiding us in the correct trend direction, so I see that as some what predictive & predictive is mention in the book, pdf also.

Now can someone explain to me how you are adding the extra bars to your posted charts after you have plotted Adam on them. Remember I am using the acetate overlay method, but would like to have my chart like you guys.

Thanks to everyone & these are just my view & nothing more. Just trying to get my head around Adam Theory & make it work for us all.

224

Hello.

A most insightful post. Thank you (I’m not going to quote the whole post though given its length).

As to whether or not one should be using Adam in real-time or only ‘solving’ Adam when a market reaction against your position occurs??? I know not (YET)!!! LOL!!! Put it this way: had anybody been ‘solving’ Adam for EUR/JPY on the daily charts since last week and trading Adam in real-time you would have made a fair amount of pips by now!!! NO question about that. THUS far: if you take a look at ANY of the charts I’ve solved this appears to have been the case (on the daily charts anyway). The problem IS: is this the ‘exception’ rather than the ‘rule’ i.e. is Adam going to be ‘right’ in real-time MOST of the time or not??? This remains to be seen I guess.

Whatever the ‘truth’ is (regarding the above): if you’re a trend trader then Adam will keep you trading with the market. Aside from my own personal ‘mess ups’ or trends that I’ve missed: I cannot tell you the amount of people I’ve seen who for SOME REASON (and I include myself here) are always looking to go AGAINST the current market direction. I don’t know WHAT it is that makes us do this. Wilder’s ‘train’ and ‘hobo’ analogy makes one think not??? LOL!!! Of course: there ARE INDEED MANY people that make a lot of money being ‘contrarian’. Let’s face it: that’s how people make money trading Pivots is it not??? Even if the trend is up: you’re ALMOST guaranteed that price will stop at ONE or the other Pivot Level (WHICH one of course is multi-million USD question of course) and move down a good few points (pips). Same thing with Fibs etc. But of course: we’re talking about two different styles of trading here. I mean: there’s no question Adam, like all but two of Wilder’s other trading systems (and I exclude The Delta Phenomenon here too), is a trend following system. I dont’ ‘have what it takes’ to take a few points (pips) out of the market at a time. The closest I come to doing that is by trading Turtle Soup and Turtle Soup Plus One (both presented and detailed on my forums which you obviously already know) and even with those trading systems: being contrarian and trading against the prevailing trend can result in MANY consecutive losses before a REAL reversal occurs and sometimes that doesn’t happen for some time and sometimes it doesn’t happen at all and price just keeps going and you get stopped out trade after trade after trade.

And listen up: I hope I’m not making Adam Theory out to be a ‘magic bullet’ here!!! LOL!!! My only interest in the book was THE OTHER STUFF in the book and not Adam Theory itself AT FIRST. Just bear that in mind. Put it this way: I’ve not read too many ‘rave reviews’ about Adam Theory on the Internet. To be very honest: most of the reviews or comments I’ve read have been negative (and in some cases VERY negative). BUT I then have to ask myself into which category those traders fall??? Did they ‘give it a bash’ once or twice, get stopped out once or twice, and then move on hoping to find the next ‘magic bullet’??? My INSTINCT tells me that this is the case. I did EXACTLY the same thing with Wilders Swing Index System when I started trading. Had I ONLY stuck to that system, managed risk, and taken the inevitable losses and whipsaws in my stride: I’d be a VERY wealthy man today. That’s why I say that my INSTINCT tells me that the ‘Adam Theory naysayers’ never gave it a fair chance because it didn’t result in 1 000 highly profitable trades in a row. I think we’re approaching this with caution and in the right way. I don’t think that at this stage it should in ANY way replace an already profitable trading system that you are already comfortable with. But we shall ‘keep at it’. I’ve not read too many ‘stellar reviews’ about The Delta Phenomenon either. But THERE I’m willing to bet it’s due to a lack of understanding as it’s WAY more complex than Adam Theory. Everybody that JUST buys the book and expects to be able to trade it without any of the software provided by The Delta Society and at least some initial support and guidance from them is fooling themselves in my opinion (unless you have a ‘Wilder mind’ that is)!!! LOL!!!

An indicator??? STILL not convinced that it’s necessary but will most certainly ‘give it a bash’ at some point.

Regarding the ‘extra bars’ on the charts: I’m not sure what you mean by that??? If you’re using the ‘manual acetate method’ then obviously if you remove the acetate from the chart you’re only going to be seeing the Second Reflection Chart not??? That’s if I understand you correctly anyway.

Anyway: time will tell. I think EUR/JPY is going to be an excellent ‘test’ to be honest.

Regards,

Dale.

225

You know:

I know I’m going on here ‘obsessively’ about this book. But I just read the .PDF again. My book will probably arrive somewhere around June 2013 and THAT is if it’s not stolen by somebody when it arrives here (and that’s no joke i.e. at one stage Amazon would not ship anything here unless it was shipped by ‘door-to-door’ courier and do you know what THAT costs from here)!!! LOL!!!

Anyway: I’ve just read through it again. It REALLY is ‘something to behold’ let me tell you (Adam Theory itself aside). And it occurred to me that maybe Wilder is RIGHT when he says that stuff like Adam Theory gets overlooked because it’s TOO simple and that the human brain doesn’t feel it worth ‘processing’ (something along those lines). Which is ironic (and true) because that’s EXACTLY what drew me inextricably to his Swing Index System because of its (perceived) complexity!!! LOL!!! Alright that being said: I still believe it’s the finest technical trading system that was ever developed (at least the finest that I’ve found anyway) but, well, Adam Theory, while the difference between the two may be the difference between the sublime and the ridiculous, may WELL turn out to be JUST as profitable (but with far less ‘action’ and MOST CERTAINLY nowhere NEAR the amount of whipsaws).

Just another personal thought that I thought I’d share. I always used to say that ‘New Concepts In Technical Trading Systems’ is like ‘the gift that keeps on giving’ (because every time you read it you find some little detail that you missed before). I’ve a feeling that ‘The Adam Theory of Markets’ is the same ‘deal’.

Regards,

Dale.

226

lol, somebody should point Wilder to these threads … you could make a living from what he’s supposed to pay you, promoting him. :smiley:

227

Well like I said: they (The Delta Society) DID give me The Delta Phenomenon as a gift!!! LOL!!!

But come to think of it: I still think he owes me a couple of thousand given that he NEVER MENTIONED that he traded WITHOUT LEVERAGE!!! LOL!!! So here was ‘uninformed smarty pants’ MARGINING 10% - 15% of his account on a single trade. That can (and did) lead to some SPECTACULAR $ value per pip movement at 200:1 leverage!!! LOL!!! Note: not RISKING but MARGINING!!! The RISK was not QUANTIFIABLE (probably something like 500% on a single trade)!!! LOL!!! It’s called ‘learning’!!! LOL!!! BUT: I forgive him. It was no mistake on his part. In those days: there was none of this 500 000:1 leverage bullsh*t so it’s not something that he had to consider nor worry about!!! So I cannot blame HIM for that.

Regards,

Dale.

228

Dale,

Just had a chance to response to your last post. At this time I am still undecided as to whether The Adam Theory is designed to use in real time, or when you have a reaction to your current position, but I am leaning towards only using it when the market reacts against your current position. Now, after looking at some charts today of different pairs using the acetate method plotting some double reflections it is somewhat evident that Adam could have some merit being used in real-time. By using Adam in real time it is also evident that this could be most time consuming according to the time frame used. Now this is is where a specialy design indicator would come in real handy…hint hint. The indicator would be of great benefit no matter how Adam is used.

I agree Adam has proven on the EUR/JPY pair to work quite well in real-time from what I see, but as you said “is this the exception”, or the rule? That I do not know, but from todays plotting it does appear Adam in real-time can be quite accurate for short quick in & out trading when I plotted some double reflection using the acetate manual method, but are these the exception, or the rule? Again, I DO NOT KNOW, but it looks promising. Most of what I observed today would in real-time have produced an average of 21-25 pips per trade using a average stop of about 25 pips. Now some will say is that worth the risk? For some it would be, but for me I would prefer better. Thats just me.

I don’t think you are making The Adam Theory the magic bullet, but you as well as me & others I’m sure see it has much potential. There is know doubt Adam will keep you in the trend if you follow the rules. Now that is what is keeping me much interested in Adam…its ability to keep you on track with the current trend & its ability to guide you in what to do next when the market is going against your current position. What more could you ask for?

Don’t worry I am about to finish this dissertation of The Adam Theory.

Years ago at a trading expo/ trading conference I happend to have the good fortune to meet a retired grain trader & we got into a nice long discussion about his trading career, trading methods, systems etc. During our discussion about trading methods & systems this trader said there are hundreds of methods out there to trade at this time & all will fall somewhere in between brilliant & worthless. He went on to say the best thing to do was to trade the trend. He also said to focus on what price is telling you & I think that is what The Adam Theory is doing keeping you focused on the trend (price action).
This trader would never really discuss in detail how he traded, but he did say he was a trend trader & he discribed in a different manner what Adam is stating in reference to the hobo & the train anaolgy. So far I would rate The Adam Theory near the brilliant level for its simplicity, clarity & ease of use. Is it going to be 100% correct? Not at all, but what method is?

The point you raised about people finding fault, or either keeping silent about different methods such as Adam, Delta & Gann tells me one of two things, they either don’t understand the method, or they tried it & they failed. If they keep silent they may have just found that golden nugget & keeping it to themselves. I think there are many people that have solved some of these methods are are just keeping quite & trading away.

Thanks for your views & any info you share. These are just my views & yes I am probably wrong.

“The Holy Grail In Trading Is The Trader Himself, Not The Method Traded”

229

Good morning.

‘Dissertation’??? That’s a GREAT word!!! LOL!!!

No worries HERE with long and DETAILED and ‘meaty’ posts!!! LOL!!

Do you believe in co-incidence???

I received this ‘Instant Email Notification’ THIS MORNING to an OLD (‘corpse’) thread on ‘that other horrible [B]F[/B]orex [B]F[/B]orum’ (you know: the ‘oh so helpful one’):

Delta Phenomenon - Page 7 @ Forex Factory

I did in fact post on that thread not too long ago (for the reasons given in my post above the post on the link posted above). Turns out: I’d posted on that thread AGES ago too (I’m ‘fintrans’ over ‘there’ by the way i.e. not even sure why I chose a different user name when I joined there to be honest it was that long ago).

Your post is great. Thank you. There’s not much I can add that would be of value to be honest. Other than: don’t worry i.e. an indicator will SOMEHOW be ‘forthcoming’!!! LOL!!!

And about that grain trader??? Again: do you believe in co-incidence??? If he ACTUALLY used ‘the hobo & the train’ analogy??? I’m not quite clear whether he did or not but if he did: what’s the chances of him not having read or knowing about Adam Theory and Wilder’s book??? I mean: it’s not an analogy that would simply ‘pop into your head’ upon waking up in the morning!!! LOL!!!

And while we’re on the subject of Wilder take a read here (don’t be fooled by the title and don’t worry too much about the particular stocks i.e. it’s just the first portion about ADX that ‘puts a smirk on my face’):

7 Stocks In Well Defined Uptrends: 4 To Buy And 3 To Sell - Seeking Alpha

And THAT besides all the other notifications that I receive informing ME (of all people) that Wilder’s RSI is indicating that the major indices are OVERBOUGHT (basically ‘partying on’ like there’s no tomorrow)!!! LOL!!!

I think ‘the old man’ should be KNIGHTED!!! LOL!!! What year are we in now??? 2012!!! 1978??? 2012??? THINK ABOUT IT!!! LOL!!!

Regards,

Dale.

230

Hi Dale,

Is that you on the fintrans member profile?

231

Yep, it is.
Dale is South Africa’s Bruce Willis. :smiley:

232

Dale,

Good morning my friend…at least its morning for me now. The retired grain trader I met did not use the exact analogy as the hobo & the train, but it was so close that when I read it in the Adam pdf I immediately remembered my conversation with the trader. He never really mentioned Adam, but I have a feeling he knew about it. My book should arrive today or Saturday. In the meantime I will keeping plotting the charts over the weekend. So far I am convinced Adam has merit…at least over longer time frames as in the Daily & Weekly, but it sure looks decent on the shorter ones as well.

Later today I am going to email my friend about the coding of an indicator to help with Adam. I will share his view once he responds. Thanks again for everything & have a great weekend my friend.

233

Dunno. Not bad. But I’ve always ‘fancied myself’ more of a ‘Micheal Chiklis’ from the TV Series ‘The Shield’ (best TV Series EVER that’s not a comedy series anyway):

Pictures & Photos from The Shield - IMDb

I think I’m a bit closer to that ‘look’ too now anyway i.e. a little less ‘chubba’ in the face and ‘drawn’ what with ‘all the extra years’ that have been added to my life since that avatar picture was taken ‘all in the name of trading’!!! LOL!!!

I think I have the same temperament too as portrayed by ‘Detective Vic Mackey’ in ‘The Shield’ too. You should be around when a trade goes against me (especially if it’s the Spanish IBEX or the Italian MIB which I have ‘no business’ trading at this stage but hey: I’m an undisciplined greedy human being)!!! Then you’ll ‘get my meaning’!!! LOL!!! Fortunately: nobody has IN PERSON asked me ‘which broker is best’!!! LOL!!!

Ironically: it (the avatar picture) was taken three years ago about two months after my ‘spectacular wipe-out’ so where the ‘look of satisfaction’ comes from I know not (if memory serves me correctly there was a lot of Captain Morgan ‘flowing’ at the time so that could explain it)!!! LOL!!!

That’s why I ‘bang on’ about the fact that even if I made a $500 000 profitable trade TODAY I cannot ‘buy back’ six years of my life so I guess I have to settle for a ‘Beast’ (an ‘Obama Car’) or two (and the rest)!!! The only thing it’s been good for is the waistline!!! LOL!!! Or rather the fact that actually I NOW DO HAVE a waistline!!! LOL!!!

Regards,

Dale.

234

Dale,

I also have the Delta book, but I don’t think solving how to actually put Delta to use is an easy task. I have read it several times, but just cannot get my mind around it. What level have you reached with it?

The Adam Theory is simple & easy to understand, but the problem for most & including me will be to follow the rules as stated in the book. As you know I am already wanting to use Adam intra day & maybe I can, but it probably is more suited to longer term…at least Daily charts.

I have notice when I plotted a second reflection that the lines on the acetate will not always follow along with the bars on the chart, but will sometimes move up slightly when the bars are moving down, but Adam seems to eventually get back with what the chart trend is showing. It this common? Have you noticed that as well? I quess what is important is what eventually happens & whether Adam showed the correct direction of the trend.

I will let you know what interest my friend has in coding an indicator for Adam. He should respond back by Saturday.
Have a great weekend.

235

The Delta Phenomenon??? I got as far with it as noted on the link to that thread on Forex Factory. As I noted in a previous post on THIS thread (do you ACTUALLY READ previous posts on this thread before posting just out of interest sake??? LOL!!!): I think that anybody that has JUST the book and not the software and the input and guidance and support from The Delta Society is just LOOKING for trouble (unless, AS I STATED PREVIOUSLY, you have a ‘Wilder mind’)!!! LOL!!!

I don’t QUITE know what you’re saying about your acetate charts ‘not always following along with the bars on the chart’. The ONLY thing that comes to mind is that maybe MetaTrader, like Delta Trading, is changing the scaling of the chart every time an old bar ‘drops off’ and a new bar is formed. That COULD be why. I don’t have that problem because the way I’m solving Adam: I’m working with two identical charts so even IF the scaling has changed since I’ve last solved Adam it makes not different to my Second Reflection Charts. I’m just guessing here. I THINK in MetaTrader you can STOP if from automatically changing the scaling by setting upper and lower limits but I’ve never played around with it. That COULD be your problem. Remember: Wilder only worked on PAPER charts so once a chart was drawn it couldn’t change or ‘re-scale’ itself to be a ‘best fit’ on a computer screen. That’s the only possible reason I can think of for your having an issue.

BUT NOW MY FRIENDS: AN INFLECTION POINT!!! LOL!!!

I’ve been keeping a ‘keen eye’ on EUR/JPY as you know (daily). As of RIGHT NOW (if it CLOSED RIGHT NOW) two previous lows would have been taken out and, in all probability, you’ll get a small gap down at the open on Sunday night. So ALL THREE ‘clues’ are there right??? UNTIL you apply the Adam Second Reflection Chart!!! THEN you have to ask yourself ‘do I want this trade today’. And the answer the way I see it is a definite ‘NO you don’t’!!! Not at this time.

The ‘conundrum’: if EUR/JPY closed NOW it would be a valid signal to go short (well at least to place an order to go short after the close of today’s bar) as per Wilder’s (MY???) Swing Index System. That being said: if you know and understand the Swing Index System you will ALSO know that the signal that it would be giving would quite possibly result in a reversal of the price (long story and you need to understand the system). And HERE my good friends is where we’re (I’m) going to ‘run into trouble’ with having this thread HERE and not on MY forums i.e. it’s a ‘conflict of interest’ as it were which I didn’t think would end up being the case. Put another way: when I started this thread my intention was to make people aware of the book and Wilder’s insights and ‘pure’ logic and NOT to ‘promote’ Adam Theory as a trading system but this thread has sort of ‘taken on a life of its own’ which is NOT A BAD THING. It just leaves me with a dilemma.

Anyway: what’s going to be interesting is what happens now. Is this just a little bit of ‘nerves’ that caused the Dow to pull back today and will it continue to rally on Monday??? If the daily EUR/JPY Adam Second Reflection Chart is correct (and I know that the Adam Second Reflection Chart for the Dow is ‘pointing to the stars’ at the moment) then a lot of (new AND some BIG players also i.e it’s not IMPOSSIBLE that we know more than them just by the way) traders are going to get ‘caught with their panties down’. WE SHALL SEE!!!

The point is that EITHER the Swing Index System is right and it’s going to be a short trade ‘in the coming’ OR it’s WRONG and there is a nice whipsaw ‘in the coming’. This is going to be GOOD. And believe it or not: I’m starting to see a very distinct similarity between an Adam Theory entry point and a Swing Index System entry point. BOTH await a breakout if you REALLY think about it (alright: with the Swing Index System I don’t bother with that i.e. if there’s a signal I take it with one or two minor ‘nuances’ that I take care of).

The amusing part of this: isn’t just too funny how the mind works (and probably why we all fuk up from time to time). I was beginning to worry, when looking at a monthly chart of EUR/JPY in MetaTrader, that this pair is VERY low and we SHOULD be looking for a LONG trade as opposed to a SHORT trade. It’s ‘TOO LOW’. Does that statement ‘ring a bell’??? In other words: my BRAIN is telling me that even if the Dow keeps going up it’s GOING to ‘tank’ at some point and bring this pair down with it. BUT: this pair is SO LOW so HOW is that possible. Well the answer lies in ‘the bigger picture’. Take a look at this TEN YEAR chart of EUR/JPY (below). Sure looks to me like it’s got PLENTY of room to go down not??? How does it go??? Nothing is TOO HIGH to BUY and nothing is TOO LOW to sell. Not the exact words I know i.e. not using the words ‘cheap’ or ‘expensive’. This REALLY is ‘something to think about’ and could be a TOTAL ‘mindshift’ (or 'mindfuk’ whichever you prefer)!!! LOL!!!

eurjpy10yearfromxe.jpg646×700 58.9 KB

The point is: when you take a look at the BIG picture then all of a sudden it doesn’t look ‘TOO LOW TO SELL’ now does it.

Regards,

Dale.

236

Hi,
I was looking at the daily, h4 and h1 chart of EURJPY. Attached are the “solved” charts. It seems to me that there is a confluence that price will dip to around 100.25-100.472 and then rally up. Looks like there is a short term play here (as you know I am a short term player; mostly on H1 charts) before it takes a dive.
Am I making sense here? Would like very much to hear from all of you. Thanks.

Regards,

eurjyp_270112_daily.pdf (18.8 KB)eurjpy_270112_h4.pdf (22.8 KB)eurjpy_270112_h1.pdf (21.7 KB)

237

Dale,
Thanks for the link to the book it was an interesting read. I have sit down with a few charts to see if it could be applied. I guess it would take more effort.

238

Hello.

I looked at your charts EARLY this morning but had to go out to do some things so sorry for only responding now.

I see where you’re coming from and what you’re looking at. My only comment is that you’re looking to trade Adam in real-time ignoring the ‘Clues’ or ‘Rules’ for entry. Unfortunately: thus far Adam has almost ‘to the bar’ ‘predicted’ the most probable direction that the market is going to move in and has been ‘right’. I say ‘unfortunately’ because MAYBE JUST MAYBE this is not always going to hold true. In other words: Adam is going to fail more often than not if I’m right by saying that one has to wait for at least two of the ‘Clues’ or ‘Rules’ to be evident before entering.

The above being said: what you’re ACTUALLY looking at is a perfect Swing Index System trade. You would already have been in long from the first upturn and by now would have moved your stop and reverse order (or just a stop if you wish to trade in one direction only WHICH, as I noted, is what I was hoping Adam would ‘iron out’ for me) to the point that you indicated on the chart. Basically though (and ignoring the ‘Clues’ or ‘Rules’): there are no projected probable pullbacks against your long entry price as I see it so you COULD ‘just go for it’. IF YOU DO then my best advice would be to start trailing a stop the moment such stop is locking in profits (the low of the previous bar less ‘a couple of pips’). I’d say that’s the best way of ‘attacking’ Adam if you’re not going to wait for the ‘Clues’ or ‘Rules’ to be evident before entering. And I have to admit it IS tempting. No question about that based on what we’ve seen THUS far anyway. Put it this way: you’re breaking the same rules as I break with the Swing Index System. With BOTH: you’re SUPPOSED to wait for a breakout (at very least). I don’t do that with the Swing Index System which is probably why I get my ‘ar*e whipsawed’ more often than I’d like. So from THAT perspective: you’re doing the same thing as I am doing i.e. following the system but not 100% ‘to the letter’ and thus the chances of you getting whipsawed are far greater is all.

That’s about as much as I can say really. As I said: it SURE DOES LOOK TEMPTING. But you know what??? I’m going to leave it to YOU to test!!! LOL!!! Let us all know what happens. I could be miserable because I missed making some money. You could be miserable because you’ve lost 2% of your account (or whatever it is that you’re risking). One thing you can be sure of: you’ll NEVER hear the words ‘I told you so’ from me. So don’t ‘sweat it’.

Regards,

Dale.

239

My pleasure. Read it. Then read it again. Go away. Do something else. Then read it again. As I’ve noted: it’s like ‘the gift that keeps on giving’. Once again though: don’t dismiss the REST of the book and concentrate JUST on Adam Theory. While Adam Theory REALLY HAS ‘behaved’ like TOMORROW’S edition of Wall Street TODAY I’m not sure how long this is going to ‘hold true’ and only time will tell (and I’m hoping it’s not going to take a good few account wipe-outs to prove whether I’m right or wrong either)!!! LOL!!!

And do note: I’ve only used Adam Theory on ONE trade myself (a LONG short EUR/USD trade which turned out perfectly but I ended up having to close it to cover YET ANOTHER ‘mess up’ of mine but had that trade still been open I’d now be looking to add to what was already a SIZABLE position WITH profit locked in BUT ‘one profitable trade doth not a trading system make’). All I’m saying is that I (as in ME) at the moment are simply ‘solving’ Adam and waiting to see ‘what is what’. As I’ve noted: I don’t think you can ‘beat’ Wilder’s Swing Index System. I see Adam Theory as EITHER a ‘filter’ for the Swing Index System OR as a LONG term trading system (those trades that can run for months on end, adding to the position, and never being exposed to a loss, but patience is the key with those types of trades). But that’s just me. I could be wrong. Other could be wrong. For all I know: we could all be RIGHT!!! Now wouldn’t that be something.

My ONLY and BEST piece of advice (not Adam Theory specific): WATCH YOUR RISK MANAGEMENT. That is ALL that counts. Don’t be ‘tempted’ because, for example, Adam Theory has been ‘right’ a good few consecutive times, that you can now ‘take a chance’ and accelerate the building up of your capital in one WHOPPING trade (‘just this one time’). That ‘logic’ has caused me more ‘grief’ than you’ll every understand or know. That’s why I keep ‘banging on’ about Wilder’s ten trading rules!!! FOLLOW THOSE RULES AND YOU CANNOT FAIL (even with a HALF decent trading system). But break ANY ONE of them: and YOUR TIME WILL COME!!! Somebody here actually started a thread the other day I noticed. It’s title was something like ‘Money Management’ or ‘Risk Management’ IS ‘The Holy Grail’. IT IS. Of that there is ABSOLUTELY NO DOUBT IN MY MIND.

Regards,

Dale.

Edit:

And if you read it, like it, and trade Adam, take your profits from that first trade and BUY THE BOOK!!!

240

Thanks Dale, for your comments.
Let me digest. You’ve written quite a fair bit.

Regards,

241

Hello other Adam enthusiasts (thanks to Dale for pointing this book out). I was just looking at two of the candidates for trade of the week and found it interesting that they are to go [U]short[/U] the EUR/USD. On the charts they provide with they’re setup and reasoning it appears the EUR/USD is going up but since it is approaching resistance, etc. it [B]should[/B] go down. Sounds like something straight from the pages of the book. It will be interesting to watch these trades play out this week.

242

Yeh. It’s a bad habit of mine!!! LOL!!!

Regards,

Dale.