The Adam Theory of Markets by J. Welles Wilder Jnr

Beginner Questions
243

Dale,

Yes I try to read everything, but I guess that was a dumb question after reading your post…sorry it seemed to get your panties is somewhat of a bunch. Anyway, my bad. I now have the Adam Theory book, but no surprises as you were kind enough to share the pdf. Now for my view on THE ADAM THEORY of Markets. I have mixed feelings at this time from my chart & yes ( done by hand) Adam seems to have gotten the AUD/USD correct since market open last night, but from my chart on EUR/USD it is a complete miss as this pair has been a steady move down ever since last night at market open & is only just recently started to show signs of moving up. Is this to say Adam will not work? NO. Does Adam have value? Yes.
Now having said that I will keep following along with what Adam is saying on about four currency pairs that I try & follow, but will I trade live with it? Not just yet, but in the future I just might give it a try. Everything I read in the book makes perfect sense & it is only reenforcing what every trader should know, but we seem to forget at times. About the indicator…I have someone looking into it at this time, but that may be a few days out before I get the word on how worthwhile it just might be. It seems at this time it is possible, but just how worthwhile it will be is the question.

Now for Delta discussion…NO QUESTIONS FOR YOU this time, but just my views. I really think Delta is over priced, but since I have not seen it in live action, I am just not 100% sure of that. I am not sure if it can be implemented without the software, but if it could it would probably be worth time & effort. Again, I am just not sure. You can make most anything look good on paper. Theories are everywhere, but putting many to use is another story. At some point I just might sign up for the Delta software for Forex & give it a try for I believe it is the only way to make a determination of it usefulness.

For now I am going to keep following what The Adam Theory of Markets is saying & trade the way I have in the past. No need to change when it is working, but I do like to investigate & research other methods & theories. Another thing I will most likely do & that is to avoid too many trading forums as they can get distracting.

Thanks for your time & willingness to share with everyone & good trades to you in the future.

244

LOL!!!

No ‘panties in a bunch’ I assure you. Well not with YOU anyway!!! LOL!!!

Well look: at this moment we’re just ‘giving it a shot’ really. As I noted: I’ve only done one trade with it and, well, let’s be honest, EUR/USD had been moving down in almost a straight line to it was pretty difficult to ‘get it wrong’ at the ANYWAY given all the ‘issues’ in Europe when I took the trade (and on that trade I didn’t even wait for any of the ‘Clues’ or ‘Rules’ of entry to manifest themselves i.e. I just ‘went for it’ because Adam Theory didn’t show any probable pullbacks that would have had me stopped out). At this moment: I’m still keen to see what happens with EUR/JPY. Put it this way: given how low it’s moved over MONTHS it’s ‘pushing Adam Theory’ to its limits as a test in my opinion anyway. But IF I get what I consider to or believe to be a valid entry signal obviously I’ll post here and then keep updating details of the trade as we go along. I’m STILL not convinced that Adam Theory can be traded on a ‘bar-by-bar’ basis. That’s why I said UNFORTUNATELY it’s been right ‘almost to the bar’ when we’ve ‘solved’ the Second Reflection Charts in our few tests. The PROBLEM with Adam Theory is the LONG wait for an entry signal and the necessity to have REAL wide stops which of course will always limit our trade size but which IRONICALLY is probably the reason it WILL work. In other words: other than something like a ‘flash crash’ the chances of you getting stopped out because of a news data release are pretty slim (on the daily and possibly even on the 4-hour charts). Anything shorter than that and you’re ‘exposed’. I’ve even gotten to the point that when trading the Swing Index System: if there is an upcoming news data release I change my stop and reverse order to a stop order only because I’ve been caught too many times where the spike has executed my stop and reverse order and immediately price has moved right back to where it came from and, well, of course, you’re now on the wrong side of the trade and you’d have to stop and reverse AGAIN at a loss.

And look: back testing Adam Theory should be really easy to do let’s face it (with or without and indicator). I don’t know why we’ve (I’ve) not tried this. I mean: all you have to do is turn the chart scrolling off in MetaTrader, scroll back for a good long period, construct a Second Reflection Chart, and then compare it to what actually happened for the same period. I mean you may find that even although Adam Theory has its merits: the stops will be so wide that you’d need LOADS of capital to make it worth your while to trade it (but if you’re talking about spending money at The Delta Society then I don’t think that’s something that YOU have to worry about)!!! LOL!!!

The Delta Phenomenon??? I may have mentioned this before but I’ve also not heard great reports about it. BUT: those ‘not so great reports (posts)’ have not been written by people who paid their membership fees or were ‘Directors’ so far as I can tell. They’re people who’ve just had the book and lost a lot of money trying to trade it on their own without the benefit of the software and the reports that The Delta Society sends to their members. That’s as far as I can tell anyway.

And I agree totally with your logic and idea of sticking to what you’re trading with now. That’s exactly what I’m doing. I doubt that I’ll ever just ‘drop’ the trading systems that I have for Adam Theory. I see Adam Theory being just another ‘little to no maintenance’ long term trading system that hopefully is going to prove profitable after we’ve spent a good bit of slow testing and observing. Alright: with an indicator and if it proves that it can be profitable on shorter time frames then that’s another story altogether I guess. But as I say: I agree with your ‘take’ on this. ‘Jumping around’ from trading system to trading system is a big mistake that I made many times. If you’re doing well enough and are satisfied with what you’re making: then so be it. If Adam Theory can ENHANCE our profitability: well then ‘good luck to us’. If not: well then ‘nothing lost’. It’s just a fascinating concept to me I guess. Not to mention ‘logical’. If the market is moving in a direction then trade in that direction!!! LOL!!! That’s not rocket science but, as I’ve noted, believe it not, it’s been easier said than done (until now that is anyway)!!! LOL!!!

Regards,

Dale.

245

Dale,

I have scrolled back in time on several pairs & for the most part Adam is correct about 55-60% of the time & that is according to how well the trend is you are looking at. When you see price get flat do a second of that & note the results.
It does have merit, but for me the jury is still out so to speak.

I think we never see much feedback on Delta unless it is negative & your theory is correct…those negatives did not have the software. I am sure there is something missing from the book to prevent a coder from coding the software themselves.
Those that have the software & follow the rules & even follow the rules in the Adam Theory should do well if the Delta Theory truely works as stated.

Have a good week.

246

Good morning.

You know: since my post to you of yesterday something has been bugging the hell out of me and I think I dispensed some ‘not so well thought out’ information. Back testing Adam Theory is NOT quite as simple or easy as I said (I thought) it would be. In other words: it cannot be as simple as going back in time, solving a Second Reflection Chart, and then simply comparing it to the real market movement for that same period. I don’t know if you agree with me but put another way: Adam is ‘dynamic’. It’s constantly ‘on the move’. So unless a person has one HELL of a ‘visual mind’ (not sure what word or phrase to use here): you’re not going to see how you would have managed the trade while it was open. Your statement made about what happens when the market goes flat oddly enough (I believe anyway) actually confirms my belief in what I’m saying now. In other words: Adam Theory, if being solved daily (for example) SHOULD tell you that ‘hey: there is probably a flat ranging period coming up so watch out for this and keep your stop where it is’. What do you think of what I’m saying??? In other words: to back test Adam Theory ‘the easy way’ as I previously suggested would require one to make the assumption that Adam Theory DOES INDEED CORRECTLY PREDICT BAR-BY-BAR or at any given point creates an EXACT mirror image of the market ‘to come’ which we know (as nice it would be though) is just not possible.

Let me know what you think.

The Delta Phenomenon. I think you’re right about the software to start with. Second (and as far I know): once you’re a member (or ‘Director’) of the The Delta Society they solve Delta FOR you anyway and send you the reports and I do remember reading somewhere that you may receive Delta solved and receive updated reports as the markets move and such subsequent reports will differ. I remember thinking at the time that this sounds a bit ‘hit and miss’ on THEIR part. But in light of what I’ve just posted about Adam: it makes sense to me that The Delta Phenomenon is ALSO ‘dynamic’ and would need updating constant updating and ‘reflection’ (no pun intended) as the market moves. Put THIS another way: if The Delta Phenomenon could predict EXACT turning points on EXACT dates then believe me nobody would trade ANYTHING else EXCEPT Delta!!! LOL!!! Put it this way: I know I PERSONALLY would for sure trade something that told me that on ‘Day A’ price is going to go to ‘X’ and then it’s going turn the next day and go to ‘Y’ etc. etc. etc. LOL!!!

Regards,

Dale.

247

Hey Dale … you’re right, of course: no indicator will ever be able to predict price movement with any accuracy even remotely approaching 100%, no matter how complex or well-defined the underlying calculations are.

The point here, in my opinion, is rather how much potential or capability a given indicator has to approach ‘perfect reliability’.
And from what I know about [I]Adam[/I] so far (which sadly isn’t enough yet by a long way), a well-structured indicator based on this theory would have the potential to be superior to most other indicators.
Hence it is worthwhile to proceed trying to create one. If it was dynamic enough to boast something like a 65-70% accuracy, that’d be one hell of an indicator indeed.

Regarding becoming a member (or ‘Director’) of the Delta Society: what does it take to achieve that? (Or maybe I should ask, ‘[I]How much does it take?[/I]’.)

Cheers,
O.

248

Good morning my good friend.

Welcome to ‘normality’!!! LOL!!! And this being MY thread we can post WHAT the fu*k we like WHEN we like!!! LOL!!!

I agree wholeheartedly with you. This would not even be what I’d consider to be an ‘indicator’. Much like the Swing Index System which is purely based on price (and heavily weighted in favour of the closing price): an Adam Theory ‘indicator’ would definitely be ZERO lag!!! No question. Unfortunately (even although I thought I’d be able to do it Delta Trading) it’s just not possible in Delta Trading. So it’s MetaTrader, or my writing an application, or nothing so far as I can tell and I haven’t spent enough time with MQL4 to be able to code something that ‘at face value’ SHOULD be easy to code but I’m not sure it’s that easy unless you REALLY know what you’re doing and actually understand Adam Theory (I think that’s the problem with that ‘Future Candles’ indicator that’s floating around OR it’s not based on Adam Theory at all).

Membership (or becoming a ‘Director’) of The Delta Society: you’re probably better off sending them an email than asking me. If memory serves me correctly: becoming a ‘Director’ (which really is a lifetime membership ‘with benefits’ so far as I can tell) used to cost somewhere in the region of $30 000 (one-off payment). But I noticed on their website ([U]https://www.deltasociety.com/[/U]) when I looked at it a few days ago that their whole fee structure has changed so take a ‘squiz’ there and see what you think. Unfortunately the costs don’t seem to stop there though i.e. you need to subscribe to a specific data provider in order to use the software as I understand it. One thing that DOES concern me is the ‘hot deals’ and ‘membership discounts’ and ‘tailored memberships’ that are mentioned on the site. I hate to say it but that does make me wonder unfortunately. I mean: if I were to charge $120 per annum for membership to my forums then the only reason I’d ‘drop the price’ or make 1 000 ‘exceptions’ is if I desperately needed the money and was having difficulty in getting people to pay $120 per annum so I drop the price and HOPE!!! LOL!!! Then again: I’ve made it REAL clear that I’m not a good businessman so I could be WAY wrong here!!! LOL!!! Somebody actually told me the other day that $120 per annum (as an example) would drive some people AWAY!!! Because the membership fees were so ‘cheap’ most people would be saying to themselves ‘well this cannot be worth anything at that price’. WHO knows!!! Not I!!! LOL!!!

) WHO
Regards,

Dale.

249

Hehe, thanks.
I’ll post anything I like anyway, no matter who the ‘owner’ of a thread is. :smiley:

I agree that an indicator (or maybe we should call it ‘[I]Adam Tool[/I]’) would be quite hard to code; to do this, one would need to have understood [I]Adam’s Theory[/I] fully and completely and be a gifted coder to boot.
Unfortunately, I don’t qualify for either.

I’ve had a look at Delta Society’s website, but will not comment on it. ^^

Cheers,
O.

Edit/P.S.: One needs to be careful not to confuse ‘[I]Adam Tool[/I]’ with ‘[I]Adam’s Tool[/I]’, I guess. :smiley:

250

Dale,
Good morning. Yes you are seeing what I am seeing about The Adam Theory & what its potential is, but I am still trying to decide if it is really worth pushing forward with any further analysis. I am still waiting on my friends decision as to whether he see any possiblity & merit to the coding of an indicator. I think it was Oliver that said, “who ever codes the indicator would have to have a real clear understanding of the theory” & I agree. This person has the coding skills, but will the merit be there. If an indicator could be correct in it signals just 60% of the time you could do well with sound money management…such as what Adam states (the rules). Yes trying to back test Adams is a challenge. Sometimes I see it hit on the money & there are times it goes totally wrong. The trend has a great deal to do with the results, at least that what it seems to me. If an indicator can be coded I will let everyone know.

Delta is very appealing, but it will probably be something I will not dig into anytime soon. There are times when I get on to something I will stop trading & research what I am interested it. I do like looking at new ideas, method & theories. I have a strong interest in Gann & his methods, but have never found any info that truely spells out how he squared time & price. The squaring of time & price is what I would like to discover as it seems to have much merit.

Have a good day.

251

Hello.

Well: I’m going to keep solving Adam (without trading it) as I have been doing (although I’ve been a bit ‘slack’ this week but I’ll get there). It’s the only way to tell really. Put it this way: FORWARD testing it (although that to me is a sort of ‘contradiction in terms’ really i.e. how can you test something that ain’t there YET??? Hence this being the very first time I’ve used the phrase!!! LOL!!!) is FOR SURE going to be easier than back testing it!!! LOL!!!

So of course I’ll keep posting the charts as I’ve been doing. At least that way, over a little bit more time, we’ll have a clearer picture of how we WOULD have traded a few instruments using and see what the end results of such trades WOULD have been (I suppose that IS FORWARD testing is it not???)!!! LOL!!!

I may very well though ‘switch’ to my forums (but if I do I’ll obviously make it clear). Put it this way: by now and with all of our posts on the subject anybody that is interested SHOULD get the ‘general idea’ and at VERY least SHOULD be able to solve Adam Theory or draw Second Reflection Charts??? I mean: the book is downloadable (and hopefully people will take heed of my requests to buy the darn thing if they’re profitable with Adam Theory) so what more is there that can be contributed really??? SHORT, of course, of somebody like you and I discussing where either of us would have entered and why. That type of thing i.e. comparing notes. But for that we need a bit more history I think.

Gann??? Never REALLY put any effort into finding out ‘what is what’. Like anything: I’ve read one or two RAVE comments (posts) and others where it’s been said that his timing JUST HAPPENED to be ‘right’ for the market conditions at the time and yet others where it’s felt that he ‘took his secrets with him’ when he died (and actually I even think I read somewhere that it was not Gann himself but his son that carried on with his theories but still without knowing all of his ‘secrets’). WHO knows!!! LOL!!!

Regards,

Dale.

252

I’m in with the forward testing and will share results as I get them. BTW for some reason Adam Theory makes me think of the Borg from Star Trek - “Resistance is futile. You will be assimilated.” Good luck!

253

Hello.

Well: let’s see where it goes if anywhere.

But as I’ve said: follow Wilder’s ten ‘Golden Rules’ on every single trade (forgetting about Adam Theory) and I’ll bet you that even a dumb ar*e 13 or 26 period EMA system will be profitable over time!!! LOL!!!

The above being said: if Adam Theory even turns out to be a reliable directional filter for what is already a (another) profitable trading system them that’s ‘WAY good enough for me’!!! LOL!!!

Regards,

Dale.

254

OK so I was reading Adam Theory again and the part that I focused on this time was the velocity factor. Currently I was stuck on the symmetry portion. Well I got to thinking about potentially using a smaller time frame to provide a velocity indicator (e.g. use M5 to trade 1H) because looking at EUR/USD it seems if you wait for a big move on the 1H it can almost be over so maybe if towards the end of the candle you could know how fast it was trending you could decide to enter or not. Well the velocity indicator is the lower time frame so why not trade the lower time frame? I guess where I’m going is although Adam supposedly works for any time frame maybe a specific time frame is better suited to FX (is FX a truly free market???). I am looking at the M15 right now and it looks like a good candidate. Sorry for the rambling but this helps me study :slight_smile:

255

Good morning.

‘Ramble away’ if it helps. I know from having other threads that have gone on for YEARS that some very good ideas have just come from ‘ramblings’ or ‘general comments’ and while they may appear to be insignificant at the time, sometimes, somewhere later on in the thread, a sort of ‘ah hah’ moment reminds you of a ‘ramble’ that’s been posted that all of a sudden makes sense.

As a matter of fact I have a bit of a ‘ramble’ (well maybe this is more of a ‘note’) of my own this morning. I have a bad habit of ‘speed reading’ through stuff ESPECIALLY when it’s something that I’m ‘dubious’ about from the start. And that is EXACTLY what I did The Delta Phenomenon when I first received it. I remember thinking to myself: ‘this CANNOT be the same person that wrote New Concepts In Technical Trading Systems’!!! I also have a bad habit of, when buying a book on trading, I skip STRAIGHT AWAY to the chapters where the technical trading systems are detailed (alright at SOME point I end up reading the whole book EVENTUALLY). The point is: that’s exactly what I did with The Delta Phenomenon!!! So last night (for no reason that I can imagine): I took The Delta Phenomenon to bed with me and started FROM THE BEGINNING except THIS time I actually READ the text. Well here’s a ‘revelation’ in and of itself. See below a direct quote from The Delta Phenomenon on about the tenth page i.e. for some reason the intro pages are not numbered.

[I]"HOW CAN DELTA BE USED TO TRADE THE MARKETS?

Although DELTA is not a ‘trading system’ as such, it is the ideal tool for every trader. It doesn’t matter if one is a chart trader, a systems trader, of a fundamental trader, DELTA will become the basis for your decision making. Let’s see how DELTA applies to these three groups of traders."
[/I]
Of course: Wilder then goes to great lengths to explain ‘how DELTA applies to these three groups of traders’.

The point is and as Adam (how ironic) from ‘Mythbusters’ would say: “well there’s your problem”!!! LOL!!!

What I’m saying is that quite possibly this is the very reason why The Delta Phenomenon doesn’t get its fair share of ‘rave reviews’!!! Put another way: this could very well explain why the The Delta Phenomenon ‘naysayers’ make their comments and have lost ‘piles of money’ (which is one comment I remember reading somewhere on FF some time ago on the subject of The Delta Phenomenon). If you go on to read the next few pages: it sure does appear to me that one has to have a decent trading system and The Delta Phenomenon is nothing more than a ‘directional filter’ (albeit an extremely complicated one). What’s more and if you look at the software (examples) (the software that is supplied if you’re a member): I remember thinking (back then when I received The Delta Phenomenon) that aside from some extra ‘thingys’ on the charts there were some little ‘dots’ on the charts that looked SUSPICIOUSLY like Parabolic SAR!!! LOL!!!

What I’m saying (again) is that I believe that anybody that just ‘rushed out’, bought The Delta Phenomenon, and expected to be ‘told’ that ‘on this day at that time then this is going to happen’ and based trades on this premise??? I’m figuring the end results, given the wide ranges and margin for error, resulted in VERY VERY LARGE ‘crocodile tears’!!! LOL!!!

I’m NOT going to try to find The Delta Phenomenon somewhere for download and then upload it to my forums but at some point today I’ll scan these few intro pages and upload them (I don’t think there’s anything ‘wrong’ in my doing ONLY that) and you’ll ‘get the picture’.

Anyone interested (in the meantime i.e. I have a few other things to do this morning quick) MAY JUST want to look up somebody by the name of ‘George Marechal’. He produced a 15-year forecast for the Dow Jones Industrial Average for the period 1934 to 1948. The chart is presented in The Delta Phenomenon on the sixth page. His forecast is ALMOST IDENTICAL to how the Dow moved during that period. The ‘catch’??? His forecast was produced in 1933 and the original still exists to this day (somewhere)!!! Wilder believes that he, although possibly unknowingly at the time, had ‘discovered’ The Delta Phenomenon!!!

I really thought that above was worth mentioning.

I’m AM NOT saying that I believe that Adam Theory falls into the category of NOT being a ‘trading system’ at all. I believe they’re two different ‘animals’. But I also believe the above SURE was ‘worth a mention’ as noted!!!

And MAYBE that’s why I had to read ‘New Concepts In Technical Trading Systems’ +1 000 times before I ‘got it’!!! LOL!!!

Regards,

Dale.

256

Mr Joshua,

Since I starting reading that pdf the Dale provided, the 15M tf has been my main focus as I am a short term trader. The Adams Theory is suppose to apply to all time frames, but it seems short is somewhat better. You my friend have discovered one of the keys to its usefulness & that is the short time frame with focus on volocity. The gem of the theoyr is going to be the volocity & following the rules. I devoted about three yours yesterday trying to back test the theory on three pairs & going weeks back in the past & coming forward. The results are mixed with about 50% being way incorrect.
I guess with sound money management that is not a bad rate, but for me a number near the 65-70% would be much better.
As I stated earlier the slope of the candles or bars has much to do with how the second reflection will match up with future price. On some second reflections the candles didnot line up for about the first 15-20 bars, then thye all started to line up almost prefectly & mabey that is how it is suppose to be, you know…nothing is ever 100& in this business.

To sum it for me…The Adam Theory has merit, but I see it as another tool to add to the box. It should keep you in the trend, but the short time frames seem to be the best. The 15M & 30M would most likely be the better ones. Over the next few weeks I will keep doing second reflections & see how it all plays out. May 50% accuracy want be too bad after all. The volocity & the rules are the keys to the theory.

Thanks for sharing your views & I think you just might be correct.

257

Dale,

Since I enjoy investigating new methods & theories I am going to give the Swing Index on your site a look. BTW I think you have a nice site setup, but traders are just not aware it exist. Wilders theories have merit, but it is finding that merit that can be elusive. I have heard that Sloan has another theory call the Ocean Theory. I have not looked into it, but reviews are mixed & apparently he is keeping this one to himself as Wilder does not seem to be in the mix this time. Maybe one day I"ll look into the Ocean Theory, but for now am staying focus on my method, Adam & taking a look at the Swing Index.

Have a great day & may the pip flow your way.

258

Chaps,

So I stumbled onto this thread yesterday. Dale, whilst you have no idea who I am, I feel I know you already having read so many of your posts here. Anyway, after the first few pages of posts in this thread, I had curiosity and motivation to read the book. So that’s what I have spent literally all last night and today doing.

And what a read it is…very thought provoking…

It has given me several thoughts going forward, which If I were to put in one post, would be too long. I will get to them though. My first question to you guys is, what are you using to do the projections? It looks like you are just doing it manually (with screenshots and mspaint (or similar) to do the projection), but I see there was talk of an indicator?

My first thoughts were also to knock up an indicator to plot the projections, so if I get time over the next few days, that’s what I’ll do. It doesn’t strike me as being that hard, it’s just finding the time to do it. I figured once that is done, it should make it quicker to work with, so working on the 1H timeframe becomes more realistic.

Ultimately though, as you guys are doing, the only thing to do is to test it out…

259

Jedster,

Welcome to the thread. Yes the Adam Theory is thought provoking & eye opening in many ways. Just the rules are good one their own. Now what to do with it is the question. As you have read in the thread several here have done some second reflections & mine are showing about 50-60% hit. If you can code an indicator to do the second reflections that would be a hugh plus. I have someone taking a look at coding an indicator, but he is busy with outside obligations for now, so he is unable to do it. I have noticed that the slop of the past trend has a bearing on how the second reflection is turning out. See what you see when you plot them. I am doing the manual reflection with acetate. Thanks for joining in & best of luck with the indicator.

260

Its funny. I’m just watching a webinar and the guy is talking about s/r and how it might line up with a fib retracement level.

He just said “[I]All these signals to get into a trade are that much better if they come around levels where you are expecting the market to turn around[/I]”.

Now, no disrespect to him,what he is saying is all perfectly sound, but having just read Adam (so it is relatively fresh), it completely flies in the face of Adam. Couldn’t be more the opposite…

I think, like the book says, a lot of this is a mental issue. If you want to embrace this, you have to give up all those preconceived ideas and surrender to the market.

This is not going to be easy…

261

Ok, very interesting. So I’ve knocked up a quick version of the indicator to check the maths is ok. It has a few drawing issues, but immediately I can see that when you apply the 2nd reflection is crucial. I need to go back and re-read what the book says about when to start doing the 2nd reflection. For example, I just took the AUDJPY (no particular reason, I just had the chart there) and applied the reflection to the current daily chart. This is what I got:

AJ reflection.jpg700×299 26.3 KB

It tells us there could be some congestion with some resistence around the 82 level, but then straight up to the mid 84’s.

I then shuffled the reflection back a few days to see what it would have looked like if I did the reflection earlier. This is what it looks like with the reflection from 29th Jan.

AJ Reflection 29 jan.jpg700×363 27 KB

This matches exactly the last few days. Ok, it is just a few days, however, both these charts are indicating that the AJ could be looking to go upto the the 83.5 - 84 level within the next 10 days or so. Of course, if the BOJ intervene then that will help…

Hope the screen shots come out ok. Note that charts are the same, it is just the 2nd is a little more zoomed in than the first.

262

So I started to play a bit (straight after the previous post actually, and before fixing the indicator!). I went back to mid November and plotted 25 days ahead. I guess a bit like back testing. It “predicted” a fall to aound the low 74’s/high 73’s after about 11-12 days, and then a rise up to the 80 level after about 22ish days. Sure enough, a low of 74.7 came in after 9 days and then up to the low 80’s after about 16 days. So almost spot on.

AJ Reflection 11 nov.jpg700×411 33.2 KB

So that took us to around the 7-8th ish of December.On the 8th there was a big move down so I plotted another 25 days ahead:

AJ Reflection 9 dec.jpg700×414 35.1 KB

This predicted some lows ahead around the low 77 area and then a steep rise.If I was long, I think I would have moved my stop up to 76.

The low was hit, but it went no lower, and then the rise started, but ran into some sideways movement. Ultimately, the high point was achieved. Timewise it wasn’t correct, but certainly no more lower lows were posted, so any stop under the 77 level would not have been hit.

As mentioned in the previous post, timing of the transformation could be crucial. In some cases shuffling by even a day or two gives a completely different path. I was obviously playing here with the benefit of hindsight. Doing it “live” will be completely different. That is why, I now need to go back to the book to see when to do it. And I thought it was all fresh in my head…nope…

On an asside, I notice that the png’s are being converted to jpg’s when being uploaded. I think I might start posting links to the images as the fullsize png are much better to see (and ironically the filesize smaller) than the jpg’s.