For what it’s worth: your first support level (leandar) is ‘all but fu*ked’ at this point (at the time of my posting this anyway)!!! LOL!!!
Regards,
Dale.
By the way:
Don’t be fooled by the little ‘bounce’ off of your first support level (leandar). That’s just Buckscoder and PurplePatchForex catching a few pips off of support!!! LOL!!!
JUST FOR FUN (and for want of something better to do) I decided to ‘solve’ Adam for Silver weekly. But please note that this chart was solved for the week ended 23/12/2011 (last week Friday). Alright: it was still ‘right’ (as is obvious today) but just making it clear that this is not a CURRENT chart is all.
Well: I’m not sure what to say. Silver gowing to THOSE lows again next year sometime??? It doesn’t seem feasible. It’d sure be nice though. Imagine buying Silver at around $8.00 and holding a fairly large position until price reached $50 or more??? LOL!!! That’s ‘retirement fund stuff’ right there!!! LOL!!!
Have fun.
Regards,
Dale.
xagusdweeklywe23122011.zip (29.7 KB)
How many SL hunt in that bounce ?
lol every support and resistance is like coin flip game. Pending Home Sales within 3 min
I dunno. Adam is not that specific nor cares!!! LOL!!!
Regards,
Dale.
It’s the second touche of this support, so it was expected to go a little deeper (some buy orders already off the table). Anyways, nice call so far with your “adamized” shorts. Tho, that was more a cable impulse imho, because yesterday it went short almost half an hour earlier than fiber and it went much deeper imho.
So there is the question: Why does the dollar gain strength now? Because hedgers and banks need to take their profit at years end and that means more dollars in accounts. Hence more demand for the buck. What we have right now is imho nothing fundamental. Just some paper tuning moves and maybe some good opportunities. 
Hi Dale,
According to the book, Adam can be used on any time frame. Do you think “solving” ADAM on one hour chart makes sense? (assuming using the Paint to solve the chart on an hourly basis is not a problem)
Have you tried this before?
Regards,
Well: you’re quite right. According to the book it should be valid for any timeframe but no I’ve not tried it. The only reason REALLY is because I (obviously) have other trades going so ‘solving’ Adam every hour just wouln’t be practical for me given the time it takes.
BUT: I happen to have a good friend who constantly boasts that HE IS THE MT4 MQL CODER OF THE WORLD so I’m going to ask him to take a look at this and see if he can code an Adam Indicator that works in realtime. That would solve the problem. As I noted on this thread somewhere: there are one or two ‘floating around’ but they don’t ‘check out’ (well they most certainly don’t ‘agree’ with my ‘manual projections’ anyway). But: how hard can it be to take the data for, say, the last 14-bars, ‘flip’ them, ‘reverse’ them, and then draw them ‘into the future’??? LOL!!! Put it this way: in all probability you’ll probably find that SHORT of having an indicator you’d probably be better off using the ‘manual’ method i.e. simply print the hourly chart every hour and then add to the ‘transparency’ every hour and ‘rinse and repeat’ every hour???
I posted a link somewhere here (at least I think it was on this thread) to an Adam Indicator for TradeStation but a) it’s not cheap and b) it’s useless for any other trading platform except TradeStation (and possibly one or two that ‘simulate’ or are compatible with TradeStation’s ‘EasyLanguage’).
Regards,
Dale.
Actually using the Paint method that you described to solve Adam is quite easy. If an Adam indicator is available for MT4 would be great! Thanks, Dale.
Great thread Dale! Just read the book and enjoyed the thinking behind it. Thanks for your work and the links. Just working on “solving” a couple of charts and will try to post the trades I make on this thread.
BTW, I looked up Jim Sloman, and he has some very dark video forecasting hyper inflation and a major depression. You can youtube them if anybody is interested.
Comment on the Silver chart… IMHO the silver trade would not be a good trade because according to ADAM it would retrace back - so the proper thing to do would be to wait and see if it follows ADAM. After the retracement would be the good time to go in, but then again according to the book the greatest symmetry is closer to the NOW moment.
Hello.
Well you’re right about the Silver trade (chart) checke. The whole idea about Adam is to first find a possibly entry point and see where the next projected pullback is going to be. If that pullback is to a point where it would be past your entry price then you’d have to stay out and wait until projected pullback would not pass your entry point. That’s in my own ‘lingo’ but I think you understand what I mean. And you’re right: the greatest symmetry is closer to the NOW moment so ideally it would be great to ‘solve’ Adam every day just after the close. Only problem with that is TIME!!! I could only do that at midnight GMT+2 and trust me: I cannot see straight at that time of night anymore!!! LOL!!!
Anyway: attached are the Adam charts (daily and weekly) for EUR/USD for the week ended 30/12/2011. It sure looks like there’ll be an ‘ever so slight’ movement upward and then ‘down we go again’. WE SHALL SEE!!! LOL!!!
Regards,
Dale.
eudailywe31122011.zip (31.6 KB)
euweeklywe30122011.zip (37.4 KB)
Happy New Year everyone (I’m not starting another thread for that)!!! LOL!!!
Attached is the Daily Adam Second Reflection Chart for Silver for the Week Ended 30/12/2011.
At this stage, and given that at this stage I’m creating these charts manually, I’m wondering about the merit of bothering with the Weekly Adam Charts. Any thoughts???
I’m not trying to ‘convert’ anyone here but this chart is quite something to ‘behold’. Had one been ‘solving’ Adam quite a few weeks ago it’s pretty clear that one would have gone short and where your stops would be now i.e. profits would already be locked in and not to mention the fact that at no point was the trade every showing a loss. Hmmmnnn…!!! LOL!!!
.
And by the way (for the ‘naysayers’): this doesn’t fall into the category of ‘hindsight’. The short trade to which I refer above IS what WAS (if that makes sense) i.e. there’s no ‘optimisation’ or ‘curve fitting’ or ‘bullsh*t’ involved here!!!
For those interested: once again ‘enjoy’.
I’m now going to ‘solve’ Gold Daily too and let’s see what the coming week brings.
Regards,
Dale.
xagusddailywe30122011.zip (44.3 KB)
Well: here’s the Daily Adam Second Reflection Chart for Gold for the Week Ended 30/12/2011.
Regards,
Dale.
xauusddailywe30122011.zip (41.9 KB)
Happy New Year to you too! And eveyone on this thread!
Great job with the charts Dale, appreciate your effort very much.
regards,
Hello.
Thank you for the ‘wish’.
And it’s my pleasure (the charts).
To be honest: in some strange kind of ‘nutter’ way I’m trying to prove what I perceived to be possible ‘mumbo jumbo’ WRONG!!! LOL!!! But every week when I ‘solve’ those charts, ‘put them together’ with what I read and hear, and go BACK in time (as IF I had been ‘solving’ Adam a few months ago): well it’s getting a bit hard to NOT believe that there’s at least ‘something’ to them. I’m ‘digging deep’ into trying to understand ‘market psychology’ and I’m beginning to form an idea and opinion as to what that ‘something’ is which I’ll share with everyone after a reasonable period of time and testing has passed (if I’m right of course)!!! LOL!!!
Regards,
Dale.
Happy nye to you Dale and everybody!
Well, the tricky thing with Adam is where the breakout occurs. It all depends on the right application. And, even then you will have losers sometimes. Just think of it:
You have a hs pattern or double top. You apply Adam at the seen neckline. It’s the same scenario like with the general rules of hs pattern trading. Tho, there are for sure events where you have a loser. No matter if with a hs setup or then with Adam, because the rules of them are in this case identical.
Cheers!
Oy.
Happy New Year to you too. I did send you an email but I’ve a strange feeling you didn’t receive it (because I’ve sent one or two others to other people and I know they never received them and same thing with text messages today)!!!
Adam Theory??? Well: maybe you’re right. I mean: it could just be another (easier for someone like me) way to trade chart patterns maybe. You know: something similar to the ‘placebo effect’. Who knows. But I’ll tell you this much: if ‘something’ happens with BAC then there can be NO doubt that the ‘something’ to which I refer indeed exists!!! LOL!!!
And of course there’ll be losers. That we know without a doubt. I suppose it’s one of those things that will work for some and not for others maybe??? It’s like the ten trading rules in the book. I’ve read those same rules or been told those same rules in different ways by different authors and by different people but it’s maybe just the way that Wilder writes that ‘gets through to me’. Same thing as Fractals maybe??? Bill Williams calls them Fractals, Wilder calls them HSPs and HIPs or LSPs and LOPs. See my point???
All of that being said though: for the first time (and this is the theory and opinion that I was alluding to earlier on) I’m taking FIFTY steps back and looking at a chart and thinking about what EXACTLY IS a chart??? What is it telling me??? Now that might sound TOTALLY ridiculous coming from me at this late stage of the game. But it’s like one of those things that you KNOW but you don’t THINK about. Take the Gold chart for instance. At any given point in time the chart will be telling you what PEOPLE are prepared to pay for it and how high they’re prepared to go. So maybe Adam Theory (as simple as it really is if you REALLY look at it) is a way to gauge or project when those SAME PEOPLE are prepared to start buying again (given the same emotions etc. that ‘come into play’). Like BAC??? We KNOW it’s ACTUAL value is not reflected by its current stock price but PEOPLE are not prepared to pay more than what the current price is. Maybe Adam Theory is some sort of ‘application’ of the ‘for every action there must be an equal and opposite reaction’ (something like that). Who knows??? I’m probably not making much sense here (and I promise you I’ve not been at the rum since Christmas)!!! LOL!!! Put it this way: I don’t think that there is anything ‘magical or mystical’ about this. Maybe you’ll understand what I’m trying to say and explain it in a more eloquent way.
One thing that I’ve noted though: it DOES seem to be able to keep someone like me ‘on course’ i.e. trading WITH the market as opposed to against it in a sort of ‘forcible manner’ if THAT makes sense. Which is something I’ve been meaning to note since I read the book and started posting about it. There are more than a few posts noting something along the lines of that if ‘the WORLD’ is net short EUR/USD then it’s time to go long. Well: ‘the WORLD’, I can only assume, would include the so-called ‘smart’ or ‘big’ money would it not??? So why would a trader want to go AGAINST ‘that lot’??? That’s the point Wilder makes in his book (about the hobo and the train). The only way I can ‘marry the two’ different opinions is that going AGAINST ‘the WORLD’ would be the short term trader whereas the ‘go WITH the WORLD’ would be the long term trader. I’m not sure here either really in what I’m trying to say. I haven’t got this all ‘neatly tied up in a package’ yet I guess is the problem but I’m sure I’ll get there!!! LOL!!!
One thing I’ve found astounding though are some of the Bloomberg statistics for 2011. I mean there’s one fund manager who’s Gold fund is down by something like 800 MILLION USD. I mean: how does that happen??? One assumes that by the time somebody is put in charge of that kind of money they’ve learned ALL the lessons. But apparently not. I mean: whether it be Wilder’s Swing Index System or Adam Theory (or probably a half-a-hundred other trading systems) and given the knowledge that one would ASSUME that such an individual has that should be a, say, 700 MILLION USD PROFIT by going short (leaving space at the top to confirm the reversal or the correction hence the 100 MILLION USD difference in my figures). And what’s the bet that the same individual will buy more Gold when it starts to turn again. That’s (in our terms) the same as ‘adding to a loser’ is it not??? Or am I oversimplifying things here???
Then again: maybe I’m OVERTHINKING EVERYTHING here. LOL!!!
Put another way: anything that gives me a ‘reliable probable’ direction of the markets, tells me when to move my stops, and roughly where to put them??? That’s good enough for me. And, well, for me: that’s what Wilder’s work gives me whether it be Adam Theory or his technical trading systems. Or maybe I’m just ‘growing up’ and no longer try to ‘squeeze’ or ‘force’ that ABSOLUTE VERY LAST POINT (or pip) out of the market.
Regards,
Dale.
Thanks Dale! No emil here.
Well, I guess I understand the theory behind Adam and I’m not thinking it’s the same like pattern trading. This was just an example. My point was to prove it’s important when to apply it. If you’d apply it directly after a breakout and if it’s trending then you could for sure make money. Albeit if you apply it too late, say after the trend happened already, then you buy too late and maybe close to a reverse. It makes no sense then anymore to wait for a trend extension. To speak regarding trains, that would be you jump on a train from N.Y. til L.A. at say Vegas and would hope it goes til Tokyo, lol.
Hi Dale
When you said this…
"One thing that I’ve noted though: it DOES seem to be able to keep someone like me ‘on course’ i.e. trading WITH the market as opposed to against it in a sort of ‘forcible manner’ "
a little light bulb came on. you realize what Adam reflection is doing don’t you? Forget price for a moment, forget fluctuations and swings and just draw a trend line, now what does it’s reflection look like? Trend up or Down either one? What would a market reversal look like in a reflection? It would look like a loss. It would look like the reflection failed. The reflection is a trend following tool. And following the trend is what Adam theory is all about isn’t it?
It seems to me that all the Adam theory simply does is take the current trend that is in place and continues it. Looking at it as a method of determining what SHOULD happen seems to be against what the book is about. The book emphasizes that a trader should be trading based on what IS happening and not on what they think SHOULD happen. If price is trending UP then its going UP, if it’s trending DOWN then its going DOWN. This is definitely a good read, ironically it comes mostly from everything else in the book.
Geez!!! There are people ALIVE today!!! I’ve never in my life seen forums as quiet as they have been since yesterday!!! LOL!!!
I THINK I understand what you’re both saying. I THINK!!! LOL!!! And I THINK that you’re both right too!!! LOL!!!
Maybe I’m using the wrong words e.g. ‘predicting’ or ‘prediction’ or ‘should’. As you quite rightly state RC64: Adam Theory is about WHAT IS and not what traders THINK SHOULD happen. You too TalonD. Quite correct. But YOU of all people know how useless I am at spotting support and resistance or drawing trendlines!!! LOL!!! Maybe (as I said to Buckscoder): Wilder’s ‘approach’ to things just ‘works’ for somebody like me is all. Something like ‘a Wolf in Rottweiler clothing’. Does that make sense??? LOL!!!
A CLASSIC AND FINE AND EMBARRASSING EXAMPLE:
In ‘my little trading world’ there are only a few indices open for trading today. The DAX being one of them. I’ve been sitting watching the darn thing for hours (or had been anyway before I went to take a nap because I was getting so bored) just going up and up on the 1-hour chart. What have I been doing??? Instead of ‘just going long’ (which is EXACTLY what I would have done had I been ‘solving’ Adam hourly which I don’t believe to be possible if done manually): I’ve been sitting waiting for a short signal from Wilder’s Swing Index System!!! What else can I say??? I’m an idiot. The point is: Adam (for WHATEVER it is) will keep you trading WITH the market and not AGAINST it (except at tops and bottoms and, ironically, that’s exactly how the Swing Index System works anyway)!!! If it (Adam) accomplishes NOTHING else: it’s still worth ‘something’. And here I call myself a ‘trend trader’!!! LOL!!!
In my own defence however (it’s OBLIGATORY for me to note this of course to protect my own reputation): Adam Theory is NOT what ‘grabbed me’ at first. It was the sheer brilliance and yet simplicity of Wilder’s logic that ‘spoke’ to me (after a PARTICULARLY bad trade I might add). Only AFTER I’d read the whole thing a few times did I decide to just ‘tinker around’ with Adam Theory!!! LOL!!!
BUT: you’ve got to be careful with this too i.e. ‘mixing’ two things together. I FELT or THOUGHT that the DAX SHOULD go DOWN not UP because WHY??? Because I’m SHORT EUR/USD based on Adam Theory!!! Had it not been for Adam Theory: there would have been no question about my taking a long signal on the DAX (using Wilder’s Swing Index System). As contradictory as this may sound though: remember that my EUR/USD short is based on Adam ‘solved’ for the daily and weekly timeframes whereas I’ve been looking at the DAX on the 1-hour timeframe. Just making this point to ‘complicate matters further’.
Regards,
Dale.