test one two three.
Hmm, I can’t post my message and get 501 method not implemented. 
Predicting one market’s shorter term movement using another market’s longer term trend. Definitely sounds complicated 
Eurusd used to follow the indices but I noticed that in the last 3 weeks or so, this relationship is broken.
No. In my case it’s just plain STUPID (today)!!! LOL!!!
Regards,
Dale.
The SAD part: EVEN I noted this VERY SAME THING not TOO many posts ago (last year)!!! LOL!!! Time for me to ‘wake up’!!!
I think it had a lot to do with today. You know: a NEW YEAR, feeling positive, getting up, cannot wait to open the platform, and then ‘BOOM BOOM POW’ I find out that just about everywhere on the planet (except Europe) it’s ANOTHER Public Holiday!!! MAKE IT STOP!!! PLEASE!!! SOMEBODY!!! So I guess that sort of ‘took the wind out of my sails’. And once AGAIN (as if I’ve not proved this far too many times): NO USA, NO MOVEMENT worldwide (or nothing worth ‘writing home about’ anyway)!!! LOL!!!
Regards,
Dale.
It’s probably because you’re wanting to say something ‘horrible’ about ‘Adam’!!! LOL!!!
Regards,
Dale.
No, I used not even the word BAC, lol.
Dale,
I don’t think the time when you solve ADAM is all that important, because you solve it and project it from the NOW moment, whenever you choose that to be. They way I’m seeing ADAM is that it is an extension of the flow (trend) of the market at the point in time when you choose to solve ADAM. That is why the time segments (hourly, daily, weekly) don’t matter as long as your trade is consistent with that time segment. If you solve it for a daily chart, your trade should be measured in days.
IMHO ADAM is a view of where the market will go, taking into consideration where it has been and the SPEED of where it has been. The faster speed of the market (going up, down or sideways) the more difficult to make sudden and abrupt changes (same as with any moving vehicle).
I like ADAM because of its simplicity. I feel whenever we complicate things too much, we are making them a lot harder to understand than what they really are.
Hello.
Well if nothing else: I hope it’s of value to some and I’m please I ‘uncovered it’ after all these years. I’ve always been one of those people who will buy a book and skip all of the input and advice and ‘go straight for the trading systems’ and if there isn’t a trading system in the book well, then, I usually never look at such a book. Foolish of me really (and I only realised that after a few years of ‘nice juicy losses’)!!! LOL!!! That’s (I THINK) what ‘attracted’ me to Wilder’s ‘New Concepts In Technical Trading Systems’ and his technical trading systems i.e. no ‘flannel’ there boy!!! Just ‘trading system after trading system’. One or two ‘quotes worth quoting’ and a small section on ‘Capital Management’ (which I later found out was a bit deceiving in its wording but not by design i.e. Wilder traded with NO leverage so it was alright for him to talk about MARGINING a percentage of your account whereas I obviously WAS trading with leverage but was still MARGINING the same percentages as recommended by Wilder and, well, ‘the rest is history’ as they say!!! LOL!!! I’ve covered this in detail on my forums though with a big ‘WARNING SIGN’)!!! LOL!!!
As I said: in some ‘nutter’ way it’s like I’m trying to DISPROVE Adam. But it you really ‘strip it down’: it’s doing (or accomplishing) exactly what you guys are all saying. It’s occurred to me that this is the MAJOR difference between Adam Theory and Wilder’s Delta Phenomenon. Wilder’s Delta Phenomenon is INDEED an attempt at “tomorrow’s Wall Street Journal today”. But again: just because it’s TOTALLY ‘over my head’ doesn’t mean it doesn’t have merit. Put it this way: to the best of my ‘digging’ and a slight bit on ‘insider knowledge’ (although not very much at all) there are people making a lot of money out of it (but then they’re paying a lot of money for the privilege too).
But as I keep saying: these are ‘early Adam days’ although I’m fast starting to see the methodology and reasoning behind it. And like I’ve said: even if you EXCLUDE Adam from the book the rest of the book is ‘Gold’ (at least for me).
Regards,
Dale.
Check your wording carefully. I used to have the same problem with the words ‘CD’ and ‘DVD’ (I noted this somewhere before). There’s normally a ‘reserved word’ that the software misinterprets and that’s when you get that error.
Regards,
Dale.
Hi checke,
well said!
Instead of trying to combine the Adam theory technique with the Swing Index System, have you tried just applying the Adam theory technique to two different time-frames (Long and short)? I’m no stranger to Wilder’s book ‘New Concepts In Technical Trading Systems.’ When I was beginning I actually checked out this book from the library because at the time I was trying to “figure” markets out using RSI. I was using an indicator that I didn’t know anything about (What exactly is RSI? How is it calculated?). I read the book only to be left with more questions than answers! (Why is it calculated with only 14 periods? Why does it use the closing price? Why not the high? Why not the low? What about the open?). I even went so far as to modify it only to be left with the same frustration.
The funny thing is that this book seems to completely discredit his earlier book ‘New Concepts In Technical Trading Systems.’ The book isn’t really about prediction its about reacting to what the market is doing right NOW. The Adam theory technique is just giving you the confidence to do it. It’s as if you are on the top of a slide and aren’t sure if you should slide down, Adam is the kid yelling at you, “GO!”.
Good morning.
FINALLY: we ALMOST return to normal!!! US Futures open at 13h00 GMT+2 and ‘life as we (I) know it returns’ thank fu*k!!!
RC64:
For what it’s worth: I’m impressed!!! LOL!!! Somebody that went to the time and the trouble to actually find out about an indicator from the developer of such indicator themselves??? Unheard of!!! LOL!!!
‘New Concepts In Technical Trading Systems’ is the first book I ever bought and Wilder’s trading systems are the only trading systems that have consistently made some REAL money for me (well: as long as I myself don’t ‘mess up’ that is). I too have ‘messed around’ and tried to ‘tweak’ stuff like RSI and ADX etc. but you know what??? It is my belief that there is no test or ‘tweak’ that you or anybody can try that he probably DIDN’T try before publishing his work. A good example and ‘proof of the pudding’: there is a trading system developed by Kathy Lien and Boris Shlossberg called the ‘RSI Rollercoaster’ (a good system, also presented on my forums, and which I’ve traded successfully when I’ve traded it). Problem: it was giving me far too few signals (patience is a virtue that I lack in LIFE not just in trading). So: I removed Wilder’s smoothing. The result: way more signals coupled with a far greater number of breakeven or losing trades!!! Same thing with ADX and any system based on it. Why the 14-periods??? Wilder (like most all other traders and authors on the subject) indicate that any indicator (be it RSI, ADX, moving averages, you name it) should cover one-half the period under review. The only (usual) differences being that some traders or authors will deem there to be 20 trading days in a month (4 weeks of 5 days), Wilder believes that even although not ACTUAL trading takes place that weekends should be included (this is clearly stated in his Delta Phenomenon as a matter of interest), Larry Williams and Bill Williams figure that 13-days is closer ‘on average’ and ‘fits’ ALL months, that type of thing. But then you probably know all of this. I just thought I’d mention it (for those that don’t and have not seen my other posts on the subject). From my point of view: Wilder’s stuff ‘just works’ for me NOW. I say NOW because initially I lost a lot of money with the exact same trading systems but the reason, in hindsight, was MY shortcomings as new trader and as a human being (I hesitate to say a ‘normal’ human being). A fine example: ‘in the beginning’ (sounds a bit ‘biblical’ doesn’t it) I would trade the Swing Index System, stop and reverse incurring two consecutive losses, and then ‘scrap’ the system and look for something else. This behaviour manifested itself for at LEAST one year and probably two. I did the same thing with just about every trading system I tried (and that includes MOST detailed on these forums back then). Only after I ‘lost the farm’ was I FORCED to sit back and ‘assess’ the situation. I was FORCED to PAPER TRADE systems. The strange thing: Wilder’s Swing Index System ALWAYS ‘came out on top’ for me. So how was it possible for ME not to be making money??? ONLY because of ME, NO risk management, and ‘second guessing’ the system by not taking all of its signals because I ‘felt’ that it was wrong. Now: I’ve got no issues taking sometimes five or six consecutive losses in a row (although it doesn’t happen THAT many times THAT often but you ‘get the picture’). But then again: the above (my ‘story’) is ‘old news’. This stuff has been detailed so many times by me most find it ‘painful’ now!!! LOL!!! So moving on!!! LOL!!!
You are right about about Adam contradicting stuff in New Concepts. To be honest: I was ‘horrified’ when he mentioned RSI in The Adam Theory of Markets!!! I know the point he was trying to make but RSI if used CORRECTLY is and forever will be a very good indicator (once again: if used CORRECTLY)!!! LOL!!!
I did note on this thread: Adam Theory was the ‘last thing from my mind’ when I read this book. It was more the logic and insight and the ten trading rules that ‘spoke’ to me. THEN: I thought let me try to use Adam Theory as a sort of ‘directional filter’ for my Swing Index System trades (in an effort to eliminate at least SOME of the whipsaws inherent in the system especially on the shorter timeframes and in a market that is not trending) (and unfortunately ADX is VERY slow at indicating the beginning of a range and the beginning of a trend although it’s ‘without fail’ very good at indicating the end or a pause in an existing trend oddly enough). Thus far: I don’t believe that you can ‘mix’ the two together. The Swing Index System ‘reacts’ WAY faster to changes in market direction in spite of the whipsaws. In other words: even although Adam might be indicating the a downtrend is continuing and you’re trading the Swing Index System taking only short trades because of Adam then oddly enough your amount of losers will INCREASE because Adam take a long time to confirm the change in the trend. I suppose in a very ODD way: the Swing Index System accomplishes EXACTLY what Adam Theory cannot i.e. it’s quicker to ‘see’ the reversals ALTHOUGH they may NOT be valid AS YET. Does that make sense???
So to ‘box this all up nicely’: I trade (mainly) the Swing Index System. Adam Theory at the moment is nothing more than an ‘experiment’ and a ‘nice to solve the charts for fun over the weekend’ type of thing. AT THE MOMENT mind you. Thus far: Adam ON ITS OWN is proving to be profitable and ‘right’. But that’s only based on backtesting it for the past few weeks, possibly a month or two, and to be honest, the Swing Index System would have gotten me in short on the same instruments at roughly the same time ANYWAY. The DIFFERENCE being is that with the Swing Index System I would have been whipsawed at LEAST once on Gold, Silver, and EUR/USD (which are the three instruments that, a you can see, are what I’m concentrating on with Adam Theory at the moment). So to anyone reading this thread thinking I’ve found the elusive and ‘hidden’ ‘Holy Grail’: I doubt it at the moment (that’s if it even exists at all which I doubt too)!!! LOL!!!
But as I keep saying: time will tell. One thing I CAN say: this short EUR/USD trade that I ‘just went for’ (as in your ‘GO’ statement) I’ve not had to even ‘touch’ once or worry about. Every day it’s ‘just there doing its thing’. Could I (as in ME) actually TRADE like that for any extended period of time i.e. no ‘action’??? I doubt it. But I can see the merit (if there IS merit in Adam) of opening some L-O-N-G term trades on an instrument and simply letting them ‘do their thing’ while using the Swing Index System for ‘normal’ trading (and to keep my brain occupied)!!! LOL!!! That’s the TYPE of ‘ideal situation’ that I would LIKE to see ‘play out’.
So let’s just ‘give it time’. But of course: let’s keep the discussions going too. Although let’s face it: Adam Theory is quite possibly the simplest thing in the world really if you REALLY think about it. Put it this way: the HARD part about Adam Theory would be writing an indicator for it!!! LOL!!!
Regards,
Dale.
Good morning.
FINALLY: we ALMOST return to normal!!! US Futures open at 13h00 GMT+2 and ‘life as we (I) know it returns’ thank fu*k!!!
RC64:
For what it’s worth: I’m impressed!!! LOL!!! Somebody that went to the time and the trouble to actually find out about an indicator from the developer of such indicator themselves??? Unheard of!!! LOL!!!
‘New Concepts In Technical Trading Systems’ is the first book I ever bought and Wilder’s trading systems are the only trading systems that have consistently made some REAL money for me (well: as long as I myself don’t ‘mess up’ that is). I too have ‘messed around’ and tried to ‘tweak’ stuff like RSI and ADX etc. but you know what??? It is my belief that there is no test or ‘tweak’ that you or anybody can try that he probably DIDN’T try before publishing his work. A good example and ‘proof of the pudding’: there is a trading system developed by Kathy Lien and Boris Shlossberg called the ‘RSI Rollercoaster’ (a good system, also presented on my forums, and which I’ve traded successfully when I’ve traded it). Problem: it was giving me far too few signals (patience is a virtue that I lack in LIFE not just in trading). So: I removed Wilder’s smoothing. The result: way more signals coupled with a far greater number of breakeven or losing trades!!! Same thing with ADX and any system based on it. Why the 14-periods??? Wilder (like most all other traders and authors on the subject) indicate that any indicator (be it RSI, ADX, moving averages, you name it) should cover one-half the period under review. The only (usual) differences being that some traders or authors will deem there to be 20 trading days in a month (4 weeks of 5 days), Wilder believes that even although not ACTUAL trading takes place that weekends should be included (this is clearly stated in his Delta Phenomenon as a matter of interest), Larry Williams and Bill Williams figure that 13-days is closer ‘on average’ and ‘fits’ ALL months, that type of thing. But then you probably know all of this. I just thought I’d mention it (for those that don’t and have not seen my other posts on the subject). From my point of view: Wilder’s stuff ‘just works’ for me NOW. I say NOW because initially I lost a lot of money with the exact same trading systems but the reason, in hindsight, was MY shortcomings as new trader and as a human being (I hesitate to say a ‘normal’ human being). A fine example: ‘in the beginning’ (sounds a bit ‘biblical’ doesn’t it) I would trade the Swing Index System, stop and reverse incurring two consecutive losses, and then ‘scrap’ the system and look for something else. This behaviour manifested itself for at LEAST one year and probably two. I did the same thing with just about every trading system I tried (and that includes MOST detailed on these forums back then). Only after I ‘lost the farm’ was I FORCED to sit back and ‘assess’ the situation. I was FORCED to PAPER TRADE systems. The strange thing: Wilder’s Swing Index System ALWAYS ‘came out on top’ for me. So how was it possible for ME not to be making money??? ONLY because of ME, NO risk management, and ‘second guessing’ the system by not taking all of its signals because I ‘felt’ that it was wrong. Now: I’ve got no issues taking sometimes five or six consecutive losses in a row (although it doesn’t happen THAT many times THAT often but you ‘get the picture’). But then again: the above (my ‘story’) is ‘old news’. This stuff has been detailed so many times by me most find it ‘painful’ now!!! LOL!!! So moving on!!! LOL!!!
You are right about about Adam contradicting stuff in New Concepts. To be honest: I was ‘horrified’ when he mentioned RSI in The Adam Theory of Markets!!! I know the point he was trying to make but RSI if used CORRECTLY is and forever will be a very good indicator (once again: if used CORRECTLY)!!! LOL!!!
I did note on this thread: Adam Theory was the ‘last thing from my mind’ when I read this book. It was more the logic and insight and the ten trading rules that ‘spoke’ to me. THEN: I thought let me try to use Adam Theory as a sort of ‘directional filter’ for my Swing Index System trades (in an effort to eliminate at least SOME of the whipsaws inherent in the system especially on the shorter timeframes and in a market that is not trending) (and unfortunately ADX is VERY slow at indicating the beginning of a range and the beginning of a trend although it’s ‘without fail’ very good at indicating the end or a pause in an existing trend oddly enough). Thus far: I don’t believe that you can ‘mix’ the two together. The Swing Index System ‘reacts’ WAY faster to changes in market direction in spite of the whipsaws. In other words: even although Adam might be indicating the a downtrend is continuing and you’re trading the Swing Index System taking only short trades because of Adam then oddly enough your amount of losers will INCREASE because Adam take a long time to confirm the change in the trend. I suppose in a very ODD way: the Swing Index System accomplishes EXACTLY what Adam Theory cannot i.e. it’s quicker to ‘see’ the reversals ALTHOUGH they may NOT be valid AS YET. Does that make sense???
So to ‘box this all up nicely’: I trade (mainly) the Swing Index System. Adam Theory at the moment is nothing more than an ‘experiment’ and a ‘nice to solve the charts for fun over the weekend’ type of thing. AT THE MOMENT mind you. Thus far: Adam ON ITS OWN is proving to be profitable and ‘right’. But that’s only based on backtesting it for the past few weeks, possibly a month or two, and to be honest, the Swing Index System would have gotten me in short on the same instruments at roughly the same time ANYWAY. The DIFFERENCE being is that with the Swing Index System I would have been whipsawed at LEAST once on Gold, Silver, and EUR/USD (which are the three instruments that, a you can see, are what I’m concentrating on with Adam Theory at the moment). So to anyone reading this thread thinking I’ve found the elusive and ‘hidden’ ‘Holy Grail’: I doubt it at the moment (that’s if it even exists at all which I doubt too)!!! LOL!!!
But as I keep saying: time will tell. One thing I CAN say: this short EUR/USD trade that I ‘just went for’ (as in your ‘GO’ statement) I’ve not had to even ‘touch’ once or worry about. Every day it’s ‘just there doing its thing’. Could I (as in ME) actually TRADE like that for any extended period of time i.e. no ‘action’??? I doubt it. But I can see the merit (if there IS merit in Adam) of opening some L-O-N-G term trades on an instrument and simply letting them ‘do their thing’ while using the Swing Index System for ‘normal’ trading (and to keep my brain occupied)!!! LOL!!! That’s the TYPE of ‘ideal situation’ that I would LIKE to see ‘play out’.
So let’s just ‘give it time’. But of course: let’s keep the discussions going too. Although let’s face it: Adam Theory is quite possibly the simplest thing in the world really if you REALLY think about it. Put it this way: the HARD part about Adam Theory would be writing an indicator for it!!! LOL!!!
Regards,
Dale.
Hi Dale,
I solved Adam on the H1 and daily chart of EURUSD. Daily chart show EUR is going down but H1 chart shows EUR going up to levels beyond the prediction of daily chart. Seems like there is no confluence here. Am I doing the right thing or have I misunderstood the application of Adam? I am confused. Should I just stick to the time frametime I am trading (i.e. daily) and solve Adam on daily charts and that’s it. Appreciate your opinion. Thanks.
regards,
Hello pipsaday. I know I’m not Dale but your observations are correct. If you are using the daily as your higher timeframe and the hourly as your lower then if there is no confluence between them you would be standing on the sidelines.
Hello.
My apologies for my abscence. I’m busy ‘nursing’ an account back to ‘health’ after opening gaps on US Indices and one EU Index that opened for trading ‘late’ i.e. the SMI only opened on Tuesday morning and the US Indices only opened at 13h00 GMT+2 yesterday and played ‘catch up’ to the EU Indices that opened on Monday like ‘normal people’ so of course all of THESE indices, which I just HAPPENED to be short on at the close on Friday, gapped up in a fashion that was ‘heart attack stuff’!!! And no stops would have helped because they would have been slipped ANYWAY. Anyway: it’s something I’ll be detailing on my forums (and here probably although it’s not REALLY such a ‘big deal’ on FOREX let’s face it)!!! So I’m ‘concentrating hard’ right now is all hence my abscence. But “I’ll be back” soon enough (I’ve alread managed to recover a good deal of the gaps so shoud be ‘done’ by today)!!! WHAT a BEAUTIFUL start to my ‘positive New Year’!!! LOL!!!
To answer you question(s) quick:
I don’t think that there is any merit in solving Adam for different timeframes and looking for confluence. I don’t think you’re goind to find it happening too often. As with any ‘indicator’: while the long term trend may be down or up there are shorter trends down or up on the same instrument on the shorter timeframes. Now SOME may say to look at the LONG term trend (daily, weekly, or monthly) and only take short term trades in the direction of the longer term trend. I don’t think you can apply that to Adam simply because Adam is ‘closer’ the the ‘NOW’ moment on a particular timeframe BUT IRONICALLY is also very slow to CONFIRM the change in direction of a trend. That’s how I ‘read things’ anway. Input anyone??? RC64???
Once again: my apologies but for the next day or so I’ve got my own ‘problems’ to worry about. At least I can say well: “it’s just the markets” i.e. it’s nothing that I did wrong etc. LOL!!! One thing that does amaze me though: the markets are more fickle than woman!!! On Friday night: ‘the Euro was going to cease to exist’, ‘the end of the financial world was nigh’, ‘Europe was going to fall into the sea’ (which is why I kept my shorts)??? What happens??? Most of the EU Indices open for trading on Monday morning as if there isn’t (and hasn’t been) a problem in the world!!! LOL!!!
Sorry but there’s only one word I can say and that is ‘FU*K’!!! LOL!!!
Chat later.
Regards,
Dale.
Hi RC64,
Thanks for your comments. Maybe I’m confusing myself with different timeframes. I re-read the book and it said to solve
Adam according to the timeframe of trading. So if I’m using daily timeframe, I should solve Adam using daily chart.
Actually I’m trying to solve Adam using the hourly timeframe to see how successful the trades would be. So far no entry signals for EURUSD.
Have you tried on smaller timeframes other than daily/weekly?
Regards,
Hi Dale,
Thanks for your input. Best of luck to you! Come back to the thread asap.
Regards,
Dale:
Sorry to hear about your gap troubles. If the occurrence of gaps can have such a catastrophic effect on your trading style/plan then why not close your positions at the end of the day or week!? Are you worried that the train will leave the station without you? It’s funny how you mention that the fundamentals seem to mostly be negative on the euro and yet the euro is going up! Good thing we aren’t using those fundamentals to try and predict what the euro SHOULD do and just trading what the euro is doing NOW!
The Adam theory technique’s ability to confirm the change of trend is dependent on how many days you are using to draw it. Does this sound familiar? (It’s like any other indicator! :o) The problem is that the time it takes for a trend to change isn’t constant. Sure would be nice if it was!
Pipsaday:
I don’t personally use the Adam technique (I actually don’t use any indicators at all! :o) What I’m saying is that the technique is just as good if not better than any other type of indicator/tool because its simple! By using two time-frames with this indicator/tool all you are attempting to do is increase your probability of a win. For example, If you are using the daily along with the hourly then you would only take your trades in the direction of the daily (only buy or only sell) but enter them and manage them using the hourly. The book is a good resource but I personally don’t consider it perfect (is there really anything perfect?). Trends exist on different time frames, by using the two you are just trying to not be that kid trying to go up the slide when everyone else is coming down! (ouch!) Does this guarantee that you will never be that kid? Nope, but that’s why you have a stop-loss to protect you from falling too far!