You’re putting so much effort into ‘solving’ Adam charts for various currencies … your personal interest in the topic nonwithstanding, this is a great service to the BP community, and I’m one of the people who are grateful for your time and energy.
Cheers,
O.
Dale,
Sorry that was the same one. Maybe coding one yourself is the best idea, but you seem to being doing OK without one at this time. The indication would be nice though. Get some rest & tomorrow is another day.
Ahhh… Now you’ve made me sad this morning!!! I was so ‘touched’!!! That’s the nicest thing anybody has said to me in years!!! LOL!!!
Regards,
Dale.
No problem at all. To be honest (and as I noted): I’d WAY prefer to code something myself ‘from scratch’. There’s just WAY too many pieces of software out there that are ‘wrong’ and I find it’s easier to start ‘from scratch’ than to try to decipher somebody else’s code and see if they’re right or wrong. But hey: that’s just me. If there’s a DIFFICULT way to do things: I’ll be the first one to find it!!! LOL!!!
That being said: I’m STILL not convinced that it’s necessary to ‘solve’ Adam in real time. I think that in all probability, as with any other technical trading system, you’ll STILL get whipsawed more often on the shorter time frames. BUT: I’m going to ‘give it a bash’ using Delta Trading at first (at least I ‘know my oats’ there). If it’s possible and it has merit well, then, I dedicate a fair amount of time to code it for MetaTrader (or BEG one or two people I know to do it that I believe are capable of accomplishing such task). But once AGAIN that being said: I think that ‘solving’ Adam the way I’m doing it now gives you a FAR bigger picture than would an indicator that simply draws a few ‘future bars’.
One thing that’s worth noting though is that even although Wilder DOES INDEED say that Adam SHOULD be time frame INDEPENDENT: ALL of Wilder’s technical trading systems were developed using the daily time frames and most are heavily weighted in favour of the DAILY CLOSE. Whether Adam Theory fits into this same ‘category’ I cannot say for sure. But I’m ‘waffling’ here now I guess i.e. we’re only going to know once we have an indicator to use on the shorter time frames (or some other piece of software MAYBE EVEN using Excel is an option using exported data). Probably a dozen ways to do this really. Let’s see what happens. For now: I’d be quite happy to get into a nice L-O-N-G Adam trade that I can add to a few times over a period of a few months and close out with a huge FAT CHUNK of USD i.e. I’m not one to ‘shoot’ for a few points (pips). Never have been. Never will be. But I think that puts me in the minority here!!! LOL!!!
Regards,
Dale.
Well: here’s the first ‘Adam chart of the day’!!! LOL!!!
It’s the weekly chart for XAU/USD (Gold).
Take a look at my comments on the chart and feel free to ‘chime in’.
Regards,
Dale.
xauusdadamweeklywe20012012.zip (49.4 KB)
Hokay: attached is the weekly chart for XAG/USD (Silver) for the week ended 20/01/2012.
Make of it what you will.
Again: I’ve not done any ‘Adam price analysis’ here for reasons explained on the Gold chart posted for the same period (above). To be honest: it’s a real ‘stretch’ for me to believe that Silver would go THAT low (if you extrapolate the prices) before turning up. Then again: that very statement ‘flies in the face’ of Adam Theory does it not??? LOL!!!
Then again (as I was waiting for the attachment to upload this idea just came to me ‘as if by magic’) there is INDEED ANOTHER way of ‘playing this’ possibly??? Extrapolate the prices out and place an alert at the lowest low (or lowest close) shown on the second reflection chart and just keep adjusting this alert on a weekly basis. IF that price is ever reached (and in the case of Silver for example): wait for the bar to close and go long at market ensuring that your stop is a reasonable distance away from the low of this bar and that you’re not risking more than 2% - 5% on the trade (Wilder WOULD have you risk 10% and with this type of LONG term trade that may very well be allowable given that it’s not like you’re going to running the risk of getting stopped out every five minutes)!!! LOL!!! What’s more: I doubt very much that if one DOES get into a trade like that that it’s going to be the ONLY trade you’re in or the ONLY trading system you’re going to be using. In other words: WHILE this LONG term trade is running you’re BOUND to be trading other instruments using different systems on the daily or shorter time frames so, and assuming you’re profitable, what INITIALLY was a 10% risk on the trade could very well end up being WAY less than 10% over a period of time.
Regards,
Dale.
xagusdadamweeklywe20012012.zip (25.4 KB)
Well HERE’S something interesting or dare I say SCARY??? LOL!!!
Attached are the ‘solved’ Adam charts for EUR/JPY, both daily and weekly, for the week ended 20/01/2012.
I’ve decided to (out of necessity really) to increase the canvas size for my apologies to those that have small screens. The point is (as you’ll note on the weekly chart attached here) is that too much data is being ‘chopped off’ on the smaller canvass size that I was using. BY DOING THIS though: if there’s ANY merit to Adam Theory AT ALL then BOY are we in trouble!!! LOL!!! Let’s just say that I SURE DO HOPE I AM RIGHT that Adam has NO ‘predictive’ element to it because IF IT DOES: then you can be SURE that the Mayan Calendar is right and we’re not going to be here comes December 2012!!! Remember: this is (usually) the most closely positively correlated pair with the stock market!!! Just bear that in mind when looking at the weekly chart!!! LOL!!!
The Daily chart is interesting though. There COULD VERY WELL BE a nice short trade ‘just around the corner’. MAYBE THIS ONE I’ll start ‘solving’ daily. What am I going to get for this if I do??? Offers??? LOL!!!
Now on a VERY SERIOUS NOTE:
Take note of the DAILY closing price of the DAILY chart on 20/01/2012 and the WEEKLY closing price of the WEEKLY chart for the week ended 20/01/2012. Would any logical person agree with me that the DAILY CLOSE on a Friday HAS to equal to WEEKLY CLOSE for that same week??? Feel free to disagree with me if you like. But I don’t think I’m THAT ‘dim’ to make this ‘assumption’. Well here’s the thing!!! The DAILY CLOSE shown on the charts for Friday, 20/01/2012 is 99.544. The WEEKLY CLOSE shown on the charts for the week ended Friday, 20/01/2012, is 99.190!!! LOL!!! Welcome to METATRADER my friends!!! LOL!!!
And before ANYBODY goes ‘opening their trap’: it’s NOT Deltastock’s MetaTrader charts!!! (And had this been the case I’d not have posted the error and ‘agreed’ one with the other)!!! LOL!!! I have checked THREE OTHER LIVE TRADING ACCOUNTS at different brokers. The results are identical. Oh I KNOW what they’ve done. They’ve simply ‘added’ SUNDAY’S (last night’s) movements to the WEEKLY charts. In other words: SUNDAY’S (last night’s) CLOSE IS INDEED 99.190!!! Two problems with this: it’s ILLOGICAL AND it doesn’t ‘hold true’ every week (this is the first time I’ve seen it)!!! WHAT A ‘CROCK’!!! LOL!!!
Why don’t you all just stop ‘messing about’, open a DELTA TRADING Account with Deltastock, or a DF TRADER Account with DF Markets, and ‘get with the program’ as it were!!! LOL!!! I mean: I’ve never seen anything so ridiculous in my LIFE!!! (Needless to say: before posting this I checked Delta Trading’s and DF Trader’s data)!!! ROFLMAO!!!
Anyway: have fun.
I’ll PROBABLY ‘solve’ Adam a bit later in the day for Gold and Silver DAILY (I mean I’ve gone THIS far. Why stop now???)!!! LOL!!!
Personal observations on this:
The stock markets (as I’ve noted) have had a GOOD HARD UNJUSTIFIED rally. It makes sense to me that they have to eventually correct and, well, usually, EUR/JPY has the tendency to correct in equal proportions. As I’ve also noted: the negative correlation between the EUR and the major indices that has prevailed for a while has started to return to normal i.e. it appears that they are now (as SHOULD be ‘usual’) positively correlated.
Regards,
Dale.
P.S.
NOT that I believe this to be necessary (because it SHOULD be ‘common sense’) but JUST in case: do not consider any of this as trading advice first of all. Also: whatever I post here insofar as trading is concerned is always posted in my PERSONAL CAPACITY and has NOTHING AT ALL to do with Deltastock (nor DF Markets) or my relationship with them. And IF you decide to trade based on any of my PERSONAL insights and lose money: then do NOT ‘come after me’. I’ve got nothing so save your legal fees!!! ON THE OTHER HAND: if you MAKE money based on any of my PERSONAL insights then I want HALF!!! OK??? OK!!! LOL!!!
eurjpyadamdailywe20012012.zip (32 KB)
eurjpyadamweeklywe20012012.zip (33 KB)
Dale I agree starting from scratch would be the best way to go. I am waiting the arrival of the book & in the meantime will follow along on the thread. Have a good day.
Haha, I either crack you up in the mornings, or make you cry … maybe I shouldn’t post anymore before lunchtime, so as not to endanger your breakfast digestive process. 
And I’m sure you’ve received a lot of nice comments and praise for your posts, Adam and others.
Comparing the average length of a dpaterso post with that of most other users here, your post count should be 10k, too, hehe.
Cheers,
O.
Nah. Don’t worry about it. I don’t eat breakfast anyway i.e. my ‘breakfast’ consists of two Red Bull ‘clones’ (‘cheaper’) and two headache powders and then I’m ‘good to go’ until dinner time!!! LOL!!!
What do you think of my ‘gloom and doom’ analysis of EUR/JPY??? LOL!!!
By the way (and to anyone and everyone else that MAY be following this thread):
Don’t get TOO ‘carried away’ with Adam Theory. Don’t simply dismiss the OTHER stuff in the book. In my honest opinion: Wilder’s thoughts, input, opinions, and logic are worth WAY more than Adam Theory itself.
Regards,
Dale.
Dale,
When looking at the charts you post I am seeing a red vertical line & to the right of that line what looks like price bars continuing on into the future…is the what direction price should be going based on the Adam Theory? I am I understanding that correctly? If not please set me straight. Thank you for your help in understanding this.
Hello.
The red lines on the chart (all of them) are merely lines that I draw within MetaTrader. I use these lines to ‘align’ the actual chart with the second reflection chart is all. Basically: the vertical line is just placed on the bar of the last day / week and the two horizontal lines are simply placed at the high and the low of the last bar at the end of the day / week. I then save the chart twice (changing only the colour upon the second save to yellow). Then I call up the second save, ‘trim’ it, and ‘flip’ it both vertically and horizontally, and then save it. Then I create a new blank image (canvas), ‘paste’ the first (green) save (chart), then ‘paste’ the second (yellow) save (chart), and simply use the red lines to ‘align’ the saves (charts). That’s all the red lines mean. Nothing else. The actual chart (history) is shown in green and the second reflection chart (Adam) is shown in yellow.
Does that make sense (all of the above done in PC Paintbrush by the way)???
If not: ask again and I’ll try to explain it another way.
But as I said BE CAREFUL with Adam Theory. I really don’t think it was meant to accurately pinpoint exact prices and turning points (as with The Delta Phenomenon). I’m not saying that it DOESN’T have any ‘predictive element’ to it (which I know is probably contrary to what I’ve noted before) otherwise why would we even bother with it. But by my saying that it has no ‘predictive element’ to it: what I probably SHOULD be saying is that it’s not, as I’ve noted, ‘predictive enough’ (for want of a better phrase) to accurately pinpoint exact prices and turning points. Read and understand the book again. Adam is about the ‘NOW’ moment. What are the markets doing ‘NOW’. It’s a bit of a difficult concept to grasp really. I mean: we’re looking at the ‘NOW’ moment BUT we’re ALSO looking for a ‘FUTURE’ ‘reaction’. Study the charts in the book and you’ll see what I mean.
But ALSO again remember: this is MY interpretation. I could be WAY ‘off the mark’. Who knows??? Maybe one COULD trade Adam Theory ASSUMING that it’s actually ‘predicting’ what’s going to happen tomorrow. But Wilder DOES note that Adam is NOT TOMORROW’S Wall Street Journal TODAY!!! LOL!!!
Regards,
Dale.
Dale,
That is a very good explanation & I understand it. I think it would be better for me to read the book…which it is en route at this time, then start to ask more questions & trade ideas with you & others.
It seems if it about the now it will focus on keeping us in the trend day by day & not focus so much on the predictions for the next day. Thanks again & let us know how the indicator developement goes.
My pleasure.
Well you have the .PDF while you’re waiting. So far as I know: the only thing you DON’T get with the .PDF is that sheet of ‘acetate’ (we call it something else here but I cannot for the life of me think what it’s called) and a felt tipped pen (which I think you need to buy)!!! Just make sure it’s not a permanent marker felt tipped pen would be my recommendation!!! LOL!!!
Quite honestly: using that manual method (Wilder’s method) MAY JUST be ‘the ticket’ for the shorter time frames as odd as that may sound. I mean: all you have to do is print out a chart with prices and grid lines every hour and simply add the most recent bar to the ‘acetate’ chart. I’ll tell you it’ll be one hell of a lot quicker than ‘saving and colouring and cutting and pasting and creating’ AND you’ll have the Y-Axis prices showing all of the time too. The ONLY thing you’d have to be careful of: I’m not sure if MetaTrader automatically adjusts the scaling of a chart depending on the bars being shown in the current chart window. I know Delta Trading DOES (unless you turn it off but it automatically gets turned back on when you open the chart again).
Regards,
Dale.
Dale, I will download the pdf this afternoon & see what I can learn while awating the book.
Dale,
I have just finished the first read of the pdf & I must say it most thought provoking. It has opened my eyes to a different way of looking at the markets & I have been at this trading business for many years. Today I will read it again & then try to put it on some charts. It really looks so simple, but that remains to been seen.
On the last charts you have posted for the EUR/USD what do you see ahead for that pair? From the Daily & Weekly you posted it appears to be showing more downside movenment then up.
Going back to the Future Candle indicator & looking at the GBP/USD it appears it just might be plotting close to the price at 14 candles ahead. At approx 3:15am est the indicator was showing a projected move down to about the 1.5556 & price has just pushed through that level hitting a low of 1.5534. Maybe worth taking another look at, but I still say creating another indicator of your own might be better. From reading the pdf I believe an indicator can be coded for Adam Theory that will plot it correctly.
From my first reading of the pdf, one thing is clear & that is focusing on the NOW is the most important thing a trader can do to better his results.
Thank you again for your help, views & comments.
Dale,
Just an update of sort on the Future Candle indicator & GBP/USD. As I stated in the last post GBP/USD did move down as the indicator said, but it has now moved up again & that is what the indicator was showing. Don’t really know how to read this, but does seem to have some merit. Would I trade from it no, but I am going to keep an eye on what it shows next & will update you in the next 5-6 hours. For now I cannot see a way to back test the indicator & if we could do a back test that might shed some light of it usefullness.
Hello.
Well I’m pleased to ‘hear’ that you seem to have the same ‘take’ on the book as me. I mean: it’s JUST SUCH ‘common sense’ and in all probability it’s stuff that you (and I) ALREADY KNOW (or KNEW ALREADY but somehow it all got ‘clouded’ with all the other nonsense that’s ‘shoved in our faces’ on a minute-by-minute basis) (I’m talking about the REST of the book here by the way i.e. not Adam Theory itself).
That ‘Future Candles’ Indicator??? Well: by all means experiment. I know FOR SURE that it’s not producing an Adam Second Reflection Chart though. BUT let me say THIS: this TYPE of ‘idea’ (Adam Theory) is not UNIQUE to Wilder. Somewhere on this thread I posted a link to some or the other blog where a guy is selling an indicator for TradeStation. I think it’s on that blog where there are links to other indicators to be used in a similar fashion and if I’m not mistaken some of those indicators are based on the work of other market technicians. So for all I know: that ‘Future Candles’ Indicator may be based on somebody else’s work which MAY TOO have merit. I cannot say for sure nor judge. OBVIOUSLY I’m ‘Wilder biased’. As I’ve noted on this thread; my entire trading career (ALMOST six years and ONE MONTH now i.e. I looked for my very first trade placed in some records the other day so I know) has been based on his trading systems and AS LONG AS I MYSELF DO NOT MESS UP they are profitable. So why should I doubt his later work??? See my where I’m coming from???
For fun:
My first deposit (3 December 2005): $1 067.80.
My first trade: long USD/ZAR.
My first result: -$14.94.
A few more trades (Gold and USD/ZAR only) within 10 hours of my first deposit and then margin called leaving $197.55.
It was exponentially downhill from there for at least three years!!! LOL!!!
Actually it’s not funny AT ALL!!! BOY: if ONLY I could go back to THAT day with the knowledge that I have now (and of course with the cash, access to credit, and assets that I had back then)!!! Come to think of it: if ONLY I could go back to THAT day knowing about THIS SITE: things would be a WHOLE lot different!!! Then again??? Actually not!!! It took me longer than three years to actually UNDERSTAND risk and money management let alone IMPLEMENT it and that IN SPITE of me signing up here in 2007!!! BREAK EVEN POINT AT THIS STAGE: around $500 000 (and that’s before we allow for inflation, price increases, and the rest)!!! LOL!!!
And when I read the above to check for spelling and grammar only one word comes to mind: ‘WHY???’!!! ALL THAT WAS REQUIRED was Wilder’s work and insights, an honest broker (OBVIOUSLY I didn’t start trading with Deltastock otherwise things may not have turned out THAT bad THAT quickly), and IRONCLAD RISK AND MONEY MANAGEMENT DISCIPLINE (and worse still: I had ‘New Concepts In Technical Trading Systems’ before I opened my first position but took two years to actually READ the darn thing as opposed to ‘scanning through it’ on occasion usually after a few thousand USD ‘down the tubes’ after a good few consecutive losses or margin calls)!!! The ‘ANSWER’ to the ‘WHY’??? ME BEING TOO FU*KING ‘SMART’ FOR MY OWN GOOD and thinking that my PCs would become ATMs if I traded every two minutes!!!
(I have NO IDEA why I’ve posted this to be honest but I’ll leave it here as both a REMINDER to ME AND A WARNING TO OTHERS)!!! LOL!!!
Right: BACK TO THE ‘NOW’ MOMENT!!! LOL!!! Let me see what’s happening with EUR/JPY ‘just for fun’!!! LOL!!!
Regards,
Dale.
Hi AceTrader,
I used Paint to solve Adam on the hourly chart for EURUSD and compared it with Future Candles (downloaded from forexfactory). The candles from Future Candles are different from the candles solved manually. You can try it with GBPUSD. I think the result should be the same. I think it is safer to solve Adam manually in our tests.
Regards,
Hello.
I have to agree with you (although as I noted in my previous post the ‘Future Candles’ Indicator MAY NOT be based on Adam Theory at all). In addition: I’m still not convinced that Adam Theory can be traded in ‘real time’ (not sure if that makes sense). Wilder notes in the book that you don’t have to ‘solve’ (whatever word he used) Adam every day (but can if you want to he says). It’s only necessary to 'solve Adam when there is a ‘reaction’ AGAINST your position. That’s how I understand it anyway. In other words (and using EUR/JPY as an example): there’s no point in my ‘solving’ Adam until a downturn occurs. Only THEN can one asses whether you ‘want’ the trade etc. and only THEN can one asses whether or not Adam ‘predicts’ (not a good word to use but you know what I mean) another reaction against your POSSIBLE newly opened position that would be HIGHER than your opening price (well: I’m looking for a short trade on EUR/JPY using Adam Theory).
Comments??? Input??? Like I said: I ain’t no expert on the subject myself!!! LOL!!!
Regards,
Dale.