The Dream of being 'Full Time'

Hi everyone!

Long time lurker, first time poster here.

I’ve decided to finally ‘get serious’. I think that keeping a public journal will force me to to analyse my decisions, self-critique and ultimately help me become the best trader I can! Here’s to hoping that works!

So, a little background about me. Opened a Demo account about 8 years ago, worked out well and I thought “wow, this is easy money”. Progressed onto Live and promptly blew the account, wiping about £2k in the process.

I had just graduated university at the time & £2k was a seriously big deal to me. Despite the poor outcome I was determined that this Forex game was something I could teach myself - I was profitable on Demo so what’s the difference? Spoiler alert - the difference is (mainly) psychology.

How to learn? How to improve? There’s SO much rubbish on the internet from so many ‘proven’ traders. I decided the only way to really get in on the action was to see how the professionals do it first hand. Of those intervening 8 years I have worked more than 6 in the financial services sector in the UK, the last 4 of which have been spent at a Tier 1 international investment bank. I’ve tried to learn everything I can to be consistently profitable.

I now have a strategy manually back-tested from 2016 which provides for a consistent annual profit with a Risk of Ruin of just 2%, which decreases as the account grows. Note that I say Annual Profit, not Weekly, not Monthly - Annual - There will be bad days, there will be bad weeks there will even be bad months (on average 1 - 2 per year). The point is at the end of the year, overall, it will be in the positive (ranging from +80% to +380% in the years tested).

Here’s a small sample of the back-testing monthly totals (hopefully it loads properly, if not I’ll try to fix it later).

Now, sorry everyone, I wont be sharing my actual strategy here; I’ve done the hard work to learn and make it work - you can too. I once spent a looooong time scouring for profitable trading journals with the aim of copying. It never worked. You need to find something that works for you. This journal is for me - I’m selfish like that. It’s to make sure I am justifiably following my system.

That said, I will be posting illustrations of my trades, my equity curve etc etc and if you can work out how it works then kudos to you. It’s not complicated. From my time at the bank I’ve found that the best systems are boring simply, what’s difficult is to have the discipline to be consistent in your analysis and execution.

Anyway, I digress. I will aim to post at least once a week highlighting the equity curve and any trades taken that past week. Based on interest and my own schedule I may increase the frequency and we can see how it goes.

I will be trading purely on the daily time-frame, account starting size will be circa £10k,1:30 leverage. Trades will be placed upon NY close and reviewed in the hour prior to the next NY close. They may be closed then, or kept open depending on certain conditions.

I think that’s enough of a text wall so far! In my next post I will try to post some trades which occurred over January / Feb this year and where the account is at currently.

4 Likes

Intersting introduction. I look forward to following your progress.

@Pip-Pip-Away Well done! Keep it up! :+1::+1:

So, after writing a huge post I’ve discovered that new users can only post 1 image per post. Frustration incarnate.

I’ve split the entries up below.

Ok so, as promised here’s a little background on the account - it’s only been open around a month and I haven’t really been giving it the attention it needs (hence this Journal - and hopefully the kick I need to keep focused)

We’re currently at £10,475 as of today

image

A couple of trades taken in the past month - note shots are on the hourly chart for ease of viewing.

Long EUR/NZD on the 20th Feb @ 1.6924, closed same day @ 1.7029 (+£547)

Long NZD/CAD on the 4th Feb @ 0.86181, stopped on the 6th @ 0.8581 (-£214)

Hedged the above short on the 5th @ 0.86 & topped up a little when price retraced to touch entry. closed on the 6th @ 0.85773 (+221)

Long CAD/JPY on the 12th Feb @ 83.086, closed on the 18th @ 82.537 (+£1039). Extremely annoyed at myself for this one. Should have kept it open but got greedy when I passed the 1k mark. Hopefully this journal cuts that behaviour out.

Currently only 1 trade open (which is likely going to be a looser). We are long AUD/JPY @ 74.35, 74.108 & 73.564 (scaled entry). currently sitting as per below

Bit risky going bullish on AUD… but well, I thought AUD/USD is reaching an area likely to cause a (brief) retrace coupled with JPY’s inherent weakness and what ‘seemed’ to be a lull in the Coronavirus was a good opportunity for some pips when combined with the technical. Based on the news overnight from Italy on the COVID-19, I think this is going to open with a gap down and see a renewed JPY bull run for a bit, awk well, can’t win them all and I may be pleasantly surprised.

Shall update during the week!

Also - apologies all, I’ve just realised the chart pics don’t really give any info re the price / symbol etc. I’ll work to give better screens going forward.

That actually is perfectly true, and quite profound that two traders looking
at the same chart are not seeing the same thing!

Psychologist’s ink blots indeed

Start of the week and not much to report - no trades currently open.

AUDJPY went south as feared after the gap open, positions stopped out for a reasonably big loss.

Currently flat for Feb, with the above having erased previous profits. Demoralising, but that’s ok; first time in 3 years AUDJPY has failed, was bound to happen sometime. Sods law that it happens as soon as I start this journal!

We will see if any opportunities present themselves during the remainder of the week. Sometimes not being ‘in’ is the hardest trade decision to make.

A couple of opportunities made available last night at the close.

Short USD/CHF
Long GBP/USD
Long AUD/NZD

Currently per below:

Over the past 4 years, AUD/NZD has given a win rate of just 67% with the average looser costing more than twice the return of the average winner; entered with half the standard position size accordingly.

The USD/CHF & GBP/USD gave

73% & 70% win rates respectively so standard lot size entry.

Busy couple of days for my system; quite a bit of whipsawing but hopefully that’s cleared up today.

Only 1 of the previous 3 trades worked out.

GBP/USD stopped for -120ish pips
AUD/NZD stopped for -32 pips

We went the other way with the GBP on the 27th for a small +60ish pips

We closed half of the USD/CHF for +66 pips and moved the SL to break even

At the close yesterday we went long EUR/JPY @ 120.543 and were stopped out overnight for -62

We also went long EUR/USD @ 1.1ish, big trade, 2 lots. Mentally very difficult to justify given the 1.1 level, USD recent strength and EUR weakness. But well, with just 3 loosing trades in the past 3 years on this pair - need to trust the system.

So this morning before I head off to work this is our open positions and where we stand

End of a week, end of a month - so how did we do?

the EUR/USD long was closed just before the close on Friday for £450 net

Still have the USD/CHF short open, sitting at +£410, SL moved to just above the 9.7 resistance zone as we had decent buying pressure around 9.64 - would not be surprised to see a bounce early next week.

I’m not going to show the equity curve for Feb as the account has been using this strategy and testing another. The other hasn’t worked too well so the curve would not be representative. March will be a full month using only this strategy for the purposes of this journal.

For the Month of February we got a grand total of, wait for it, £103.18 profit.

But that’s ok, according to the back testing this happens a few months out of the year:

March will hopefully be better, and I will be able to display the actual equity curve as I wont take any trades outside this system - promise.

Mid-day update on the 2nd March

Still have half of the original usd/chf short going. Currently at +£800. Set a TP at 0.951. Purely because its due a rebound after dropping so far. Might manually close if its starting to look bullish. SL will continue to be moved down at resistance on the 4 hr chart.

We have two eur/jpy shorts open from last night,
1 at 119’ish and another at 120.20 ish (limit order entry). Currently sitting at -£480 & +£420 respectively.

Will check in tonight at the close to see where we are at.

I can’t get excited that more and more traders are beginning to take trading so seriously and initially build the right format of work, which can really bring results. Keep it up, you have a huge potential to become a real professional.