The finest in trend trading - DEBUNKED

Beginner Questions
21

everyone sees different trends according to how far they they are zoomed out/in on a certain TF chart. thats obvious, what someone sees as a bull market could easily be seen as a bear market on a different TF/zoom level. this is what probably accounts for a rough trend. if EVERYONE saw the same thing on the SAME TF and SAME zoom level then EVERYONE would trade in the “trending” direction wouldnt they? But, if someone on the daily zoomed out is seeing a downtrend while someone on the hourly zoomed in is seeing an uptrend that will cause a “rough” trend, instead of simply in one direction.

so, depending upon which TF and zoom level your at will determine your current trend. and there are some people who dont even trade with the trend. there are some people who will say the PSAR is giving a sell signal so they sell etc.

trends do exist. but at all different TF and zoom levels. if you are seeing price go down you are observing a bear trend. wheather you call it a trend or not the propper word for it is a trend. Google “trend definition” tell me what you are seeing is not defined by the word trend.

tendency: a general direction in which something tends to move; “the shoreward tendency of the current”; "the trend of the stock market"
course: general line of orientation; “the river takes a southern course”; "the northeastern trend of the coast"
drift: a general tendency to change (as of opinion); “not openly liberal but that is the trend of the book”; "a broad movement of the electorate to the right"
swerve: turn sharply; change direction abruptly; “The car cut to the left at the intersection”; "The motorbike veered to the right"
vogue: the popular taste at a given time; “leather is the latest vogue”; “he followed current trends”; “the 1920s had a style of their own”

So, trends do exist, but the problem is they are completely dependant upon who is veiwing them and at what TF and zoom level, hence instead of 10 bull candles in a row all with no wicks at all, you have a mix of bull and bear candles leading towards a general direction. which is defined as a trend. for every winner there is a loser, if everyone could simply set a guideline such as “Weekly TF zoom level 3 defines the trend” etc. then im sure we would all trade with the trend. but if we all did that we would be unable to trade wouldnt we? if everyone is selling whos there to buy? (in the real market today the people buying against what you would consider the overall trend are the ones who are viewing a different trend, or maybe the PSAR, MA, Bollinger, Stochastics people)

i think you are being toooo literal in the meaning of trend. if you read the copy and pasted definitions of trend you will notice the words “generally” and “tendancy” not the words “definite” “distinct” or “pronounced”.
if you think the definition of trend is something sure fire, without a doubt, then of course a market “trend” doesnt exist. but if you use the actual meaning “tendancy” and “generally” then you can easily spot a trend in the market, while it may be clear to you it may not be to others who are perhaps view a larger/smaller TF and different zoom levels.

besides why should you care if people believe in trends? aslong as your making money, and probably some off of what you consider “myths” you have nothing to complain about, infact your probably better off letting people believe in “myths” so you can buy when theyre selling and vice versa, of course others are probably better off letting you think theyre myths while they drain your account :stuck_out_tongue:

sorry if this post is kinda rambled around i wrote it in only a few minutes inbetween classes.

22

There would be no point in having a forum if that were the prevailing attitude of traders.

Perhaps you would be so kind as to ask Tymen1 the exact same question.

23

Now you are getting warmer.

Price doesn’t look different, where price was looks differently. Let us be precise in our use of language.

Talking about supply and demand is getting ahead of the game, but that’s OK.
[I]
Wouldn’t the higher probability bet be that it would have a tendency to continue in that direction? [/I]

Only to a statistical point. If price is above the weekly open, it may be more likely to go up if it has not gone past a certain point. Once prices reaches a certain distance from the weekly open it is more likely to regress than continue according to statistics. Please keep in mind probabilities can only be assigned where the outcomes are limited like coin flipping and craps and there is a defined beginning and end to the event.

But we are getting away from the topic which is to show “trend” is a myth and only exists in the mind of a trader.

24

That is exactly what I am saying. “Trend” exists only in the mind of the trader. “Trend” is relative. Therefore, “trend” is conceptual in nature and does not exist in reality. If “trend” existed, then a precise definition would be given and all would agree what the “trend” is.

What we can agree on is that if we pick two points in time, we can observe what the price was at each point in time, and whether price is up or down when you compare the most recent price to the past price.

25

There should not be any fireworks. So long as I stay here and Tymen stays in his thread, all should be quiet. However, if Tymen posts in here, I hope the Admins do their job and admonish him if his posts are inflammatory.

26

Ill try and be as polite as possible, but it will honestly be hard because it’s obvious anyone who thinks likes this and spouts this, “trend is a myth,” nonsense either has never really traded, or tried to trend trade and absolutely failed and thus has sour grapes.

My guess would be that someone who thinks like this doesn’t understand that even trend trading needs good entries, because trends always retrace/occilliate within the larger trend. So, just because a trend look short, doesn’t mean you can enter any old time short and be in the pips right away.

Not that I am the end all expert, but I’ve been trading live over two years (actually I think it’s past the three year mark now, but I never acutally marked my live start). ALL of the best trading methods I’ve tried and kept or added to what I do involve trend trading.

I’m going to say that again: All of my personal methods involve trading based on the larger trend.

I am consistently profitable and my equity curve steadily grows.

To put in more in money terms, from a micro account that I started about a year ago with $300 dollars, every week I regulary make between $100-$500 a week in profit.

If trends were some, “myth,” or dubious concept perpetrated by brokers and those selling courses and books, there is no way I’d be as consistent as I am.

I would have to have the biggest streak of luck in history. As, anyone will tell you that has traded for more than a few weeks, you can trade on dumb luck and bad entries for a while and get some wins, but your luck WILL run out, and your losses will start to outstrip the winnners.

1 Like
27

if trends didnt exist we wouldnt be argueing about them right now. the word trend was created to show exactly what they represent. this is the same for fashion. once in a while you will see someone stuck in the 80s. you were correct in your first 3 sentences. simply because something is relative does not mean it doesnt exist. how can that even make sense? its relative therefore it doesnt exist? ur talking nonsense right now and i really dont get what your saying. ur right in the fact that trends, all over the globe, in financial markets or fashion or anything else, are all relative, but, they all exist. if they didnt exist they wouldnt be called trends. if a wall was relative would you say it didnt exist? according to what you just said you would so go find a relative wall and trying walking through it, better yet try running through it LOL.

i think you need to change you arguement to “trends are relative” instead of “trends are relative therefore they dont exist”

28

Do you really want to head down that path? Is it necessary?

Trading should be about make money aka profit. Anything else is a distraction. Either one can show how to make money trading or they can’t. All the rest is posturing.

29

ThePhoenix:

Don’t you realize every time you win it is luck? If you can’t control the outcome, it is luck. If you believe otherwise, you are deluding yourself. The market does not care what the reason is you entered a trade in a particular direction at a particular time with a particular position size. What happens after you enter your trade is out of your control. Your goal after you enter a trade is DAMAGE CONTROL until and unless the market moves in your favor giving you a chance to profit. The same pattern may appear in the market but what happens next is not guaranteed.

30

Actually, there is space in a wall. And certain things can penetrate a wall like SOUND! But that’s way off topic, even though I did broach the subject of quantum physics.

Actually, your argument “if trends didn’t exist we wouldn’t be arguing about them” can be extended ABSURDUM to include Santa Claus, the Easter Bunny, the Tooth Fairy, Big Foot, Unicorns and God. If they didn’t exist we wouldn’t be arguing about them. Based on your logic all 6 exist. Once again, let us be careful to be precise in our use of language.

Let’s look at “trend” from another angle… if trend exists, can you tell me where “trend” exists in the moment and where it will end precisely? If you can’t then how can you use “trend” to profit?

31

Is the “trend” down? Does that me we should trade short? For how long should we trade short?

32

Was that your final answer? Or do you want to make that lifeline call now?

33

Doesn’t the fact that “trend” is discussed as short term, medium term and long term make it suspect? Short is what? How short is short? How long is long? Talk about relativity!

34

The shaded area is between the 2 day highest high and 2 day lowest low (not including the current day). If price hits one of these lines, it is a break out trade. It will either be a winner or a loser. No one knows in advance. Based on statistics, this trade can be profitable.

There can be no debate( given we use the same data ) on where the lines should be placed. The 2 day highest high and 2 day lowest low are absolute and not relative. They are also time frame independent. This makes them real as opposed to conceptual. Though one can argue time is both conceptual and relative thus making the lines relative, but that’s back to quantum physics and beyond the scope of this thread and forum for that matter.

35

Is "trend’ really your friend?

36

Which way should I trade if I want to trade with the trend?

37

The answer to that question is another question.

How long do you want to be in the trade?

38

I understand you use daily data, am I right?

39

And no opinion about it.
Because the 2 day highest high and 2 day lowest low are an expression of price.

Price does not know trend.
Price goes up and down.
No more.

40

I agree 100% that trend is an arbitary concept, but its still a useful concept nevertheless. Take a bunch of completey random entries and retrospectively assess them against a longer timeframe trend. You’ll probably find that up to 80% of the winning trades where taken in the same direction as the longer term trend, and 80% of the losing trades where against trend. If your smart enough to be able to define the longer term trend in real time (and even the most basic TA will allow you make a reasonable estimate) then if your sensible about trade management and postion sizing, thats a licence to print money without even getting smart about identifying an entry trigger.

Lets also not forget that markets have a tendancy to move further and for longer than simple probability theory suggests (and this happens in nearly any arbitary timeframe that you care to analyse). Its the behaviour of market particpants that lead to this phenomena.

Markets can be predicted at least within a statistical framework and there are basic techniques that can certainly contribute to an edge. Having said that, I do think that your belief that he outcome of a single trade is down to luck is a tremendously useful concept. It is possible that a single market participant placing a trade can result in you experiencing a gain or loss. That particpant may not even be making the trade for speculative reasons.

You’ll probably take a great deal of critisism for suggesting this, but its an extremely useful viewpoint simply because if you choose to accept that reality, it starts to focus attention on whats actually important.