The finest in trend trading - DEBUNKED

Beginner Questions
23

Now you are getting warmer.

Price doesn’t look different, where price was looks differently. Let us be precise in our use of language.

Talking about supply and demand is getting ahead of the game, but that’s OK.
[I]
Wouldn’t the higher probability bet be that it would have a tendency to continue in that direction? [/I]

Only to a statistical point. If price is above the weekly open, it may be more likely to go up if it has not gone past a certain point. Once prices reaches a certain distance from the weekly open it is more likely to regress than continue according to statistics. Please keep in mind probabilities can only be assigned where the outcomes are limited like coin flipping and craps and there is a defined beginning and end to the event.

But we are getting away from the topic which is to show “trend” is a myth and only exists in the mind of a trader.

24

That is exactly what I am saying. “Trend” exists only in the mind of the trader. “Trend” is relative. Therefore, “trend” is conceptual in nature and does not exist in reality. If “trend” existed, then a precise definition would be given and all would agree what the “trend” is.

What we can agree on is that if we pick two points in time, we can observe what the price was at each point in time, and whether price is up or down when you compare the most recent price to the past price.

25

There should not be any fireworks. So long as I stay here and Tymen stays in his thread, all should be quiet. However, if Tymen posts in here, I hope the Admins do their job and admonish him if his posts are inflammatory.

26

Ill try and be as polite as possible, but it will honestly be hard because it’s obvious anyone who thinks likes this and spouts this, “trend is a myth,” nonsense either has never really traded, or tried to trend trade and absolutely failed and thus has sour grapes.

My guess would be that someone who thinks like this doesn’t understand that even trend trading needs good entries, because trends always retrace/occilliate within the larger trend. So, just because a trend look short, doesn’t mean you can enter any old time short and be in the pips right away.

Not that I am the end all expert, but I’ve been trading live over two years (actually I think it’s past the three year mark now, but I never acutally marked my live start). ALL of the best trading methods I’ve tried and kept or added to what I do involve trend trading.

I’m going to say that again: All of my personal methods involve trading based on the larger trend.

I am consistently profitable and my equity curve steadily grows.

To put in more in money terms, from a micro account that I started about a year ago with $300 dollars, every week I regulary make between $100-$500 a week in profit.

If trends were some, “myth,” or dubious concept perpetrated by brokers and those selling courses and books, there is no way I’d be as consistent as I am.

I would have to have the biggest streak of luck in history. As, anyone will tell you that has traded for more than a few weeks, you can trade on dumb luck and bad entries for a while and get some wins, but your luck WILL run out, and your losses will start to outstrip the winnners.

1 Like
27

if trends didnt exist we wouldnt be argueing about them right now. the word trend was created to show exactly what they represent. this is the same for fashion. once in a while you will see someone stuck in the 80s. you were correct in your first 3 sentences. simply because something is relative does not mean it doesnt exist. how can that even make sense? its relative therefore it doesnt exist? ur talking nonsense right now and i really dont get what your saying. ur right in the fact that trends, all over the globe, in financial markets or fashion or anything else, are all relative, but, they all exist. if they didnt exist they wouldnt be called trends. if a wall was relative would you say it didnt exist? according to what you just said you would so go find a relative wall and trying walking through it, better yet try running through it LOL.

i think you need to change you arguement to “trends are relative” instead of “trends are relative therefore they dont exist”

28

Do you really want to head down that path? Is it necessary?

Trading should be about make money aka profit. Anything else is a distraction. Either one can show how to make money trading or they can’t. All the rest is posturing.

29

ThePhoenix:

Don’t you realize every time you win it is luck? If you can’t control the outcome, it is luck. If you believe otherwise, you are deluding yourself. The market does not care what the reason is you entered a trade in a particular direction at a particular time with a particular position size. What happens after you enter your trade is out of your control. Your goal after you enter a trade is DAMAGE CONTROL until and unless the market moves in your favor giving you a chance to profit. The same pattern may appear in the market but what happens next is not guaranteed.

30

Actually, there is space in a wall. And certain things can penetrate a wall like SOUND! But that’s way off topic, even though I did broach the subject of quantum physics.

Actually, your argument “if trends didn’t exist we wouldn’t be arguing about them” can be extended ABSURDUM to include Santa Claus, the Easter Bunny, the Tooth Fairy, Big Foot, Unicorns and God. If they didn’t exist we wouldn’t be arguing about them. Based on your logic all 6 exist. Once again, let us be careful to be precise in our use of language.

Let’s look at “trend” from another angle… if trend exists, can you tell me where “trend” exists in the moment and where it will end precisely? If you can’t then how can you use “trend” to profit?

31

Is the “trend” down? Does that me we should trade short? For how long should we trade short?

32

Was that your final answer? Or do you want to make that lifeline call now?

33

Doesn’t the fact that “trend” is discussed as short term, medium term and long term make it suspect? Short is what? How short is short? How long is long? Talk about relativity!

34

The shaded area is between the 2 day highest high and 2 day lowest low (not including the current day). If price hits one of these lines, it is a break out trade. It will either be a winner or a loser. No one knows in advance. Based on statistics, this trade can be profitable.

There can be no debate( given we use the same data ) on where the lines should be placed. The 2 day highest high and 2 day lowest low are absolute and not relative. They are also time frame independent. This makes them real as opposed to conceptual. Though one can argue time is both conceptual and relative thus making the lines relative, but that’s back to quantum physics and beyond the scope of this thread and forum for that matter.

35

Is "trend’ really your friend?

36

Which way should I trade if I want to trade with the trend?

37

The answer to that question is another question.

How long do you want to be in the trade?

38

I understand you use daily data, am I right?

39

And no opinion about it.
Because the 2 day highest high and 2 day lowest low are an expression of price.

Price does not know trend.
Price goes up and down.
No more.

40

I agree 100% that trend is an arbitary concept, but its still a useful concept nevertheless. Take a bunch of completey random entries and retrospectively assess them against a longer timeframe trend. You’ll probably find that up to 80% of the winning trades where taken in the same direction as the longer term trend, and 80% of the losing trades where against trend. If your smart enough to be able to define the longer term trend in real time (and even the most basic TA will allow you make a reasonable estimate) then if your sensible about trade management and postion sizing, thats a licence to print money without even getting smart about identifying an entry trigger.

Lets also not forget that markets have a tendancy to move further and for longer than simple probability theory suggests (and this happens in nearly any arbitary timeframe that you care to analyse). Its the behaviour of market particpants that lead to this phenomena.

Markets can be predicted at least within a statistical framework and there are basic techniques that can certainly contribute to an edge. Having said that, I do think that your belief that he outcome of a single trade is down to luck is a tremendously useful concept. It is possible that a single market participant placing a trade can result in you experiencing a gain or loss. That particpant may not even be making the trade for speculative reasons.

You’ll probably take a great deal of critisism for suggesting this, but its an extremely useful viewpoint simply because if you choose to accept that reality, it starts to focus attention on whats actually important.

41

could you use some kind of linear curve fitting formula? Along with some method of determining slope to guage strength of trend?

I keep an open mind. And reading both threads with interest.
And used some curve fitting while studying primes. Got some interesting results while trying to come up with a formula for the Nth prime.

Agree with this completely!

And I don’t think Jaquille is extraction. Completely different personality.

42

Having a winnning trade isn’t just luck, traders who are consistenlty profitable, like me, take trades they know have a set of probabilities in their favor.

Nothing happens exactly the same, but I can say from first hand experience that when I see x,y & z, with particular set ups, the probability of a good entry and a good trade is worth betting.

Do trades always work out to a winning trade? No, but more often than not, yes, in my case. That is part of trading, finding a method that puts probabilities in your favor. Then find good entrance and take profit points.

No, a trader does not control the market. YES a trader controls what happens after entrance. Not the market price movement, obviously, but how the trade is managed. Do, you hold on to a trade for a few weeks because a larger trend is on and you have a good entrance? Do you get get scared and get faked out early because of retrace and take less profit? So, what happens after your entrance is not out of your control.

For instance if I enter a trade thinking it’s a good entry and price reacts badly after entrace, then I may exit or move my SL to breakeven if I’m in profit. I know because of the way I enter it’s probable price will move in my favor quickly, if it doesn’t then I will re evaluate and maybe even exit if I come to the conclusion my guess where the market was going to go, from that point, was wrong.

You set your stop, and you decide where is the best place to take profit if you are winning.

And again, if trend trading is a myth and you have a better way to trade then please share it and make a real point.