could you use some kind of linear curve fitting formula? Along with some method of determining slope to guage strength of trend?
I keep an open mind. And reading both threads with interest.
And used some curve fitting while studying primes. Got some interesting results while trying to come up with a formula for the Nth prime.
Agree with this completely!
And I don’t think Jaquille is extraction. Completely different personality.
Having a winnning trade isn’t just luck, traders who are consistenlty profitable, like me, take trades they know have a set of probabilities in their favor.
Nothing happens exactly the same, but I can say from first hand experience that when I see x,y & z, with particular set ups, the probability of a good entry and a good trade is worth betting.
Do trades always work out to a winning trade? No, but more often than not, yes, in my case. That is part of trading, finding a method that puts probabilities in your favor. Then find good entrance and take profit points.
No, a trader does not control the market. YES a trader controls what happens after entrance. Not the market price movement, obviously, but how the trade is managed. Do, you hold on to a trade for a few weeks because a larger trend is on and you have a good entrance? Do you get get scared and get faked out early because of retrace and take less profit? So, what happens after your entrance is not out of your control.
For instance if I enter a trade thinking it’s a good entry and price reacts badly after entrace, then I may exit or move my SL to breakeven if I’m in profit. I know because of the way I enter it’s probable price will move in my favor quickly, if it doesn’t then I will re evaluate and maybe even exit if I come to the conclusion my guess where the market was going to go, from that point, was wrong.
You set your stop, and you decide where is the best place to take profit if you are winning.
And again, if trend trading is a myth and you have a better way to trade then please share it and make a real point.
[B]No One[/B] and I mean [B]No One[/B] can predict markets.
No statistical framework can change that.
What they can do is gauge probability & risk.
But that’s different.
This is one of the most difficult aspects of trading to accept.
Especially for new people & for people who conceptualize & intellectualize trading in their little compartments.
Trading can be as simple & as difficult you choose to make it.
You’ll probably take a great deal of critisism for suggesting this, [B]but its an extremely useful viewpoint[/B] simply because if you choose to accept that reality, it starts to [B]focus attention on whats actually important[/B].
I concur. It is long overdue.
Trends aside for a moment. You guys have seen my daily hi lo thread where I am only looking at the high and low of the previous daily candle. But you have mentioned using the two day high and low. Is there an advantage to a two day verses a one day high low?
This is not my original thought. I found it while studying.
To calculate the high and low of the day, time frame doesn’t matter because the answer will (should) always be the same.
Statements of fact.
You are using a daily timeframe wether you use the timeframe concept or not.
Luck is defined as getting a favorable outcome when you have NO CONTROL over the outcome.
Yes, you can have the statistics in your favor when you enter a trade but that does not mean the next [B]N[/B] trades will not go against you. You enter based on statistics but favorable outcomes are due to luck.
This does not imply that coin flipping is as good as using statistics that are in your favor. On the contrary, it implies you should use statistics that are in your favor because favorable outcomes are based on luck. That is how you put luck on your side.
Use the 1h TF if you wish.
Your choice, entirely.
It does not matter what TF you use.
Well, they can predict. Whether or not their predictions come to pass remains to be seen. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
Do you see an advantage?
Use your EA’s, curves, statistics to find out.
It’s up to you.
Of course I use the tf that I want and that suits me the most, just like Jaquille uses the 2 day timeframe.
Yes, nice work, TalonD. I prefer statistics to posturing any day.
The 2 day is a mix. You could run an analysis using your same data to determine if two day high/low has a better payout.
One time the two day high/low can be from the previous day. The next time, either the two day high or low can be from the previous day. And the next time the two day high/low can be from 2 days ago.
Yes, if you are saying I am using the high/low of the 24 hour or 1440 minute period that is commonly known as a “day”.
No, if you are saying that is the chart period I am looking at.
But that’s off the topic.
The topic is to show that “trend” is a myth.
Posts should show proof that “trend” exists or that “trend” does not exist.
ur telling me santa isnt real :(? then why are my cookies always gone in the morning and why do i wake up to presents every chistmas :(? LOL
trends do exist, could i tell you where one began and ended or where it will end? NOPE, if i could id b living on my private island right now. i never said you could use trend to profit, i said trends exist. personally i dont believe a trend begins or ends until after the fact. you wont realize the beginning until it has already occured. doesnt mean they dont exist. and if you can spot the beginings then even better, same goes for the ending of a trend
btw try the multi quote tool to the right of the “Quote” option.
If traders can’t agree on the trend then how can it exist?
If “trend” exists then why are the so called experts and “talking heads” wrong so many times?
…does price care about any of the above?
Does price care about begin & end, trend lines, retracements, amount of candles?
Does price care about allowances?
[B]Tonymand[/B] stated the obvious: [B][U]higher highs and lower lows[/U][/B]
What else is there?
Well not that off topic since you yourself use daily data, but you also say it’s timeframe independent.
A day is a day, wether on a chart, or a calendar, or an excel sheet, and what is commonly known as a ‘day’ is included within the concept of timeframe.
Why? Your logic is flawed - non sequitur. A preceding B does not imply A caused B.
You say “trends” exist. If that is the case then post a precise definition of trend.
You say “trend begins or ends until after the fact.” That is an interesting way of looking at “trend”. That begs the question, “Is the end of one trend the beginning of the next trend?” Which will only bring out the “trending or ranging” debate.
Perhaps we should be discussing “Crowd Theory” rather than the existence of “trend” or at least add it to the discussion.