Tymen, could you give us some examples or illustrations of the “extreme candle”. The correct “extreme candle” determination seems to be the key to the success of this method.
hi Kockneerebel
I do test of radical method of determining exits with fib that really brings pips now!
If I will make CBL entry it can interferes in my trade even reaching middle band
i still believe even after your remark that I free to ask anything that I would like to clarify or get the opinions from other experienced traders and from tymen Of course
The rectangle is before there is a contraction of the upper BB so you should not be thinking of a reversal or entry yet.
After contraction you could look at the small bodied up candle as the extreme candle, which would require that you use the 1 candle cbl method. It would give a nice entry but you may get stopped out depending on stop loss placement.
If you used the large white up candle as your extreme candle you would use the 2 candle cbl method which would place you entry at the top of the large black down candle…for a profit even though it is quite close to TP1 (30 pips).
I am back.
Please allow for my intermittant appearances.
The pressure of moving is upon me.
It is also affecting the way I post.
[B]PTB [/B]you are quite correct in saying that extreme candle are the success of this method.
We will spend a lot more time on this.
I ask that all readers just explore this method at this moment.
Any trading should be only demo.
The work is not finished yet.
[B]Trader Alan[/B] has posted a chart with a white candle entry.
It is the wrong candle to enter on and would result in a loss since the stop loss is at the bottom of the CBL as before.
The correct entry is at the lowest candle once it is discoverd.
Discovering it is the problem.
Welcome back, [B]Simbafx[/B]!!
Thank you for your answer to Trader Alan.
There are so many posts here, it is difficult for me to answer them all while under pressure of having to move home. :eek:
Yes, this is a valid reason to close.
We could also consider the principle that a trade is not finished until either the [B]stop loss[/B] or the [B]Take Profit[/B] is hit.
In that case, the price action gives the stop loss a close shave but does not hit it.
If you took this approach, then you would win not only TP1, but TP2 as well.
On the other hand, you will also lose more pips when you do indeed hit the stop loss.
Its a case of “what you lose on the swings you win on the roundabouts.”
Whichever approach you take, it must be consistently applied.
[B]Maybe doing without the Fibonacci at these potential loss retracements is better.
Maybe we should stick with Fibonacci only when we are in a winning trade and use it in retracements to determine whether to continue the profit run.[/B]
[B]
I am limited in this area because I do not have the ability to backtest.[/B] :o :o
Would another definition of an “extreme candle” be the lowest extreme candle on a down move or the highest extreme candle on an up move before the price action moves inside the BB?
It’s good to know I am wrong. My hopes are back up again! :)Please feel free to let me know the correct method using my example if possible so I can learn best. (Crawls back from whence I came) :o
The best trades are indeed in the BB walks especially the BB sausages.
NO!!
The highest/lowest extreme candle on a BB bubble is OK.
But in a BB sausage, price action can move inside the BB after a high/low candle several times before the sausage finally ends.
Finding the highest/lowest candle on a BB sausage is easily the most difficult part of this method.
I intend to research this a little more to fine tune this, but I have already done quite extensive research to this end.
[B]Price action can do anything[/B] - and this keeps us on our toes!! :o :o
Changing timeframes does not seem to help in this dilemma.
[U]One fact here is certain [/U]- not to act until the opposite BB starts to contract.
But at this point you still do not know whether the price action is going to retrace (bubble) or continue walking the BB (sausage).
Yes, I agree with you completely!!
At this point lets have another look at a chart to get an overview of how this method works.
Note that the CBL entry method is not included.
The idea here is to get a general picture of what we are doing.
In this chart I am going to omit all those fancy colours in the typing.
It took ages to do and was very labour intensive. :eek:
Here is the chart >>>
In all these trades, the TP1 was set at the mid BB.
The TP2, if reached, was on the opposite BB.
From trade 1 entry, we go past the mid BB (TP1) and hit TP2 at point 2.
This is an OBB (blue) price action, and the trick here is to exit at the end of the lower BB walk.
Trade 2 hits only the mid BB. (OM price action, TP1 only).
The price action does and RO action (red) in returning to point 3.
Trade 3 is identical to trade 2.
Trade 4 (OO price action, pink) collects TP1 at the mid BB and TP2 at point 5.
Trade 5 is identical to trade 4, except shorted.
(It looks like there could be another trade between 5 and 6, being an OM trade to the mid BB only).
Trade 6 is identical to trade 4.
Trade 7 is a failed trade!! - we have a loss!! :eek:
Trade 8 is an OM trade collecting TP1 only. The price action retraces to point 9. (RO price action - red. This is not traded).
Not including the bit in the brackets, we have…
4 cases of TP1 + TP2.
3 cases of TP1 only.
1 loss. (2 contracts)
That is, 4 large profits + 7 small profits + 2 losses.
The 2 losses are approximately = 2 small profits so in total we have…
Grand Total = 4 large profits + 5 small profits.
So you can see that we have a very high win/loss ratio!!
OK, more from me tomorrow.
Please post your anomalies in the meantime!!
Mickeyl177, why dont you repeat your question??
Glad you posted this I have been trying to respond but I can’t get the link from photobucket to work it just says invalid file I’m trying Imageshack.
By jcgibson at 2010-04-14
Finally it worked I guess we don’t use the manage attachments any more ::eek:
John
OK, great stuff so far, Tymen. I am absolutely loving it!
I ask nothing more from you than you please continue at this brisk pace. I am awaiting the chance to take this Live with the greatest anticipation.
Make that two of us
I copy and paste the IMG Code from photobucket into the body of the post. I pulled my hair out before I figured out that we should not use the “manage attachments” button. But my posts do not have the enlargement (not that they need it) feature. How do you get that? I do like that feature when others post a chart and have a long explanation…I am able to detach the picture and put it on another monitor (I have two monitors). That way I can look at the picture on one screen while reading their explanation on the other…saves me from having to scroll up and down.
Nice work Tymen,
I can see all the parts coming togeather now, and I like what I see.
I’m on holiday tomorrow for 2 weeks and it seems I’m going to miss the best parts.
I don’t know if I want my hotel to have internet or not, because if it does I’ll be spending too much time looking at charts and reading this thread instead of enjoying the Cyprus sun.
Well either way, I look forward to how this thread develops in the next 2 weeks.
Thanks again,
Simon
Hi tymen and all hard workers
working on charts I have an reflexion about an big candlle actually on audcad in M30, and find for be sure to decrease in M15 for see 2 candles than 1 in M30, maybe an way
cheers