Or that of [B]Kockneerebel, Master Tang, Petefader, Simbafx, Gasanvill[/B] ?
Not to mention [B]Rhodytrader, (Honorary FX Member), Tonymand (Honorary FX Member), Tess, Jocelyn [/B].
Don’t worry, you will get there in time!!
We are more mature in our decisions than the young ones!!
These are mostly from the charts that I posted yesterday as I saw the EURUSD developing.
[B]Yes, the trend is down [/B]- I was looking at this last night using the zig zag indicator described in Steven B Achelis’ book “Technical Analysis from A to Z”.
Knowing that the daily and 4 hour are going down, if we used the macro method it would be a simple affair of entering at the extreme green candle (30 min chart) on the right and then riding the trend.
But with the BB DNA method I would have entered long at the extreme green candle (30 min chart) on the lower BB halfway along the chart.
This would be a simple CBL entry, TP1 at the mid BB, TP2 when the candles show signs of disconnection from the upper BB.
Finally, the long red candle is probably a news release.
I don’t understand something tymen, you give an entry on this chart and I agree with that but you say in your last post about “Denise” to not enter in the gray zone, the place where you had take your trade in this chart.
Great info Tymen. Thanks! You have really helped my trading in ways I can’t describe. And yes, you are right. I just took a small “feeler” position short the EURUSD. Note though that there is a monster trendline going all the way back to end of NOV 2009, that I placed my stop across. Whether you use the BB DNA entry method, or just enter off the first bounce off that trendline and put the stop just on the other side of it, the results are almost identical. This is a “confluence” of events. Something a trader’s eye is always on the look out for.
Thanks for posting the charts PTB (I’m trying to figure it out now). That’s the system I have traded for years. Look for a strong consistent trend on the longer time frame charts say 30M, 1H and 4H, move to the short time frames, 1M, 5M, 15M for entry, then walk back up to longer TF’s to manage the trade. The first two parts are easy and can be easily described with the mid BB on higher TF’s and the BB DNA method for good entry on the lower TF. But walking back up the time frames and managing the trade is complex and difficult and I don’t know how to explain it here. I’m not the natural teacher that Tymen is. Staying in the trade while all the long TF candles are going in the right direction is of course important to letting your profits ride. But there are almost an unlimited number of reasons that I will exit a trade early and almost just as many reasons that I will choose to ride out a small retracement. In any case, there is no way that I know of to maintain a very high W/L ratio and obtain a very high Reward/Risk ratio at the same time. So Tymen is correct in saying my method causes more early stop outs, no mater how well it’s managed. As he has implied before, that’s the price of a high R/R ratio and I don’t know of any way to avoid paying that price. I simply use everything I’ve ever learned to minimize that price, and the BB DNA entry system is now an important tool in my kit.
It appears that, despite what I was led to believe, this strategy does not work on anything shorter than a 30m TF - and most probably not on anything shorter than an hourly chart. So, with the stop-losses needed to trade off those movements (30-50 pips), there goes any idea of using larger lots to make significant profits. Those of us with smaller accounts are back to spending countless hours a day at the comp trying to make about $1.37 a day for the next three years of our lives…
Moreover, the risk:reward ratio for most of these DNA trades is often 2:1, or even 3:1, depending on when the candles finally meet all the criteria required to trigger a trade (closing past the CBL, yet having a smaller body, etc.). So this leaves us with an inverted risk to reward ratio - which wouldn’t be so bad if we had anything approaching the 90% win rate we were told from the start. I think many of us have already discovered that - even strictly following the rules as they’ve been set out to this point - our win rates are far, far less than 90% and (in my experience so far) not even 50%.
Sadly, this realization merely matches what I’ve come to painfully learn over the past seven months of trying to succeed at forex: [I]nothing[/I] works. Moving averages, hi-lo breakouts, bollinger band analysis, trading reversals off daily channels, it’s all bunk. In the end, all you end up doing is losing money - and eventually lots of it in big chunks.
I’m [I]this[/I] close to joining the “forex is gambling” side. I’m really thinking I should just - once a week - take $100 out of my paycheck and just buy a breakout on one of those bollinger squeezes for like $5 or $10 a pip. It’d be just be pure roulette. And I’d bet I’d have just as much success as I’ve had after spending countless hours, entire days, almost every day, immersed in this market trying to make sense of it.
Sorry to bring everyone down by splashing a bunch of cold water on the thread, but that’s just how I feel. Now, if you’ll excuse me, I have to get ready to go back to my miserable, hellish job that I hate with every fiber of my being… :mad:
I’m a little confused about that too - I understand the dangers of making a trade as such but I thought the whole point of our CBL entries was to trade the retracement at the end of a bubble/sausage.
Afterall, the CBL rules were created in order to provide entries/exits for precisely these trades, no?
I’ve been trading relatively successfully (yet to lose a trade - fingers crossed!) using this method, but am yet to catch an O-BB trade.
In looking for an entry into the anticipated post-squeeze trend, the first entry point, marked in green fails to be hit and there is no entry into the uptrend at this point (is this even a valid entry CBL, given that it’s so close to the mid-BB).
Price then goes into a head-fake and BB starts trumpeting. I have marked the extreme candle (second green line) but cannot find a way to enter this trade.
It can’t be classified as a bubble or a sausage, so our traditional CBL entry is most likely invalid?
Also, the BB are trumpeting, so a simple CBL entry doesn’t seem right either?
I’d really appreciate it if you would let me know how you would deal with this situation, Tymen.
I would suggest that to really evaluate if this system works for you as it stands, that some solid demo testing is done prior to going live.
That means logging every trade, recording your thoughts at the time, whether on reflection you actually obeyed the rules as they stand now and all the usual stats (R:R, W/L, SL, TP etc)…
Then after a significant amount of time (give it a month or so - the market is going nowhere) look back over your log and see how the system is working.
I’m not saying it will or won’t work. I’ve not been able to do any kind of demo trading myself for the last week (since the rules were published really) due to work. What it will do is let you practice, get an understanding for how the PA behaves within the rules system, and will most importantly let you see if you’re profitable.
I have to admit, I think 90% win rate is highly unlikely, although I would love to be proven wrong. The system seems to change alot as the thread progresses, for better or worse only time will tell.
Oh nooooo. Don’t go over there. There is no getting back once you go there.
The set-up that I believe PTB saw on the EURUSD 5M chart about 2PM EST is now 22 pips ahead from the entry at 1.3318 It’s now in a bb walk down in the 5M chart. Do we exit now? Heck no! We work our stop down a little and enter another lot. No pain, no gain.
I see a short trade in that squeeze before the failed long trade.
I also think that you could potentially identify a bubble with a contracting opposite BB. However, it can’t be guaranteed as a rule follower so staying out of the market means you break even.
Would depend on how strict you were in your identification of bubble contraction.
My live strategy is quite similar to Graviton’s, actually (although I have nowhere near his level of experience). i.e., look for trends on higher TF’s, drop to lower TF to pick a good entry point, and then scale back up the TF’s to manage the trade. I also have found my best success when I go with ‘gut feeling’ from watching the PA, rather than getting too mechanical in the trades.
Usually, the only reason I drop below the 1H chart is to pick an entry point.
I find the real value in this DNA system is to give more confidence in picking entries and exits, and I seem to get the most out of it when I combine it with my own strategy. It is my own impatience which makes me trade the < 1HR charts with this strategy, and admittedly I’m simply not used the the volatility of the PA on such short timeframes.
I think the point is to be flexible and patient… (and demo EVERYTHING!). I do see a lot of potential in this strategy, and I will definitely stick around to help with testing and ironing out any kinks
To Merchantprince: I know the feeling when this stuff just beats you down. But I’ve had enough longer-term, regular success to know that it’s not gambling. I like to think of it as a game of skill, with an element of chance
Hang in there!
