The finest in trend trading

[o990l6mh]

It appears that, despite what I was led to believe, this strategy does not work on anything shorter than a 30m TF - and most probably not on anything shorter than an hourly chart. So, with the stop-losses needed to trade off those movements (30-50 pips), there goes any idea of using larger lots to make significant profits. Those of us with smaller accounts are back to spending countless hours a day at the comp trying to make about $1.37 a day for the next three years of our lives…

Moreover, the risk:reward ratio for most of these DNA trades is often 2:1, or even 3:1, depending on when the candles finally meet all the criteria required to trigger a trade (closing past the CBL, yet having a smaller body, etc.). So this leaves us with an inverted risk to reward ratio - which wouldn’t be so bad if we had anything approaching the 90% win rate we were told from the start. I think many of us have already discovered that - even strictly following the rules as they’ve been set out to this point - our win rates are far, far less than 90% and (in my experience so far) not even 50%.

Sadly, this realization merely matches what I’ve come to painfully learn over the past seven months of trying to succeed at forex: [I]nothing[/I] works. Moving averages, hi-lo breakouts, bollinger band analysis, trading reversals off daily channels, it’s all bunk. In the end, all you end up doing is losing money - and eventually lots of it in big chunks.

I’m [I]this[/I] close to joining the “forex is gambling” side. I’m really thinking I should just - once a week - take $100 out of my paycheck and just buy a breakout on one of those bollinger squeezes for like $5 or $10 a pip. It’d be just be pure roulette. And I’d bet I’d have just as much success as I’ve had after spending countless hours, entire days, almost every day, immersed in this market trying to make sense of it.

Sorry to bring everyone down by splashing a bunch of cold water on the thread, but that’s just how I feel. Now, if you’ll excuse me, I have to get ready to go back to my miserable, hellish job that I hate with every fiber of my being… :mad:

Well, since you opened your heart you’ll have to put up with my thoughts on your situation.

I sense that you’re looking to forex as “the way out” of your current job, life, whatever. That will not work. Success and happiness breed more of the same and vice versa.

Look hard in the mirror and ask yourself what you can do TODAY to increase happiness in your life - and then DO those things. I think you may be surprised by finding that one positive change is often followed by another and another and the wheel starts turning in the right direction.

Only a person in balance, in my belief, has any chance with the markets.

And if your account isn’t large enough to trade with bigger stops and longer time frames, switch to Oanda or another micro/nano lot broker and trade as if your account was 1M $ while you build your account up by compounding as well as depositing as a reward after profitable months.

Forex isn’t gambling but it can play hell with your psychology. I think we both know what forex actually is: a business. You can succeed but it will take hard work in many areas. If you give up you can be sure of one thing - you won’t succeed in forex…

Good luck John!

[cordite]

Hey Ironheart,

I’ve been doing 12 hour shifts for the last 7 days, so not had a chance to do any kind of demo trading.

I have been able to follow the thread and practice on internet charts, but demo trading of course really tests the mettle (as the pyschology kicks in).

Looking forward to getting a chance to try the system out properly. I’ve decided to break it down though, so BB squeeze is one system, bubbles/sausages another. I’ll evaluate how each works then see if they’re worth combining, trading alone or just not working for me.

[didilut]

Hey guys, can someone help me out with the following trade:

In looking for an entry into the anticipated post-squeeze trend, the first entry point, marked in green fails to be hit and there is no entry into the uptrend at this point (is this even a valid entry CBL, given that it’s so close to the mid-BB).

Price then goes into a head-fake and BB starts trumpeting. I have marked the extreme candle (second green line) but cannot find a way to enter this trade.

It can’t be classified as a bubble or a sausage, so our traditional CBL entry is most likely invalid?

Also, the BB are trumpeting, so a simple CBL entry doesn’t seem right either?

I’d really appreciate it if you would let me know how you would deal with this situation, Tymen.

Thanks.

Ironheart hello, I do not understand very well what is the problem of entry for this trade …
If I understand you want to go along, then you simply place a buy stop at your green line with mid BB TP1, TP2 has opposite BB and if you operate like myself with opening of 3 batches let you run the Lot 3 on the sausage to an exit as seen previously.

[Graviton]

There she goes, breaking below the squeeze on M15
Price at 1.3288 quit now? Did Charlie Daniels quit when he broke a fiddle string? Heck no. Now 32 pips ahead or so.

[Graviton]

so I’m watching eurusd trying to break below a squeeze on the M15. This time of day, it’s like watching grass grow.

[IronHeart]

@didilut

Ironheart hello, I do not understand very well what is the problem of entry for this trade …
If I understand you want to go along, then you simply place a buy stop at your green line with mid BB TP1, TP2 has opposite BB and if you operate like myself with opening of 3 batches let you run the Lot 3 on the sausage to an exit as seen previously.

Hey didilut, the problem I had with identifying a long entry is the fact that the BB cannot be identified as a squeeze nor a bubble/sausage…

I ended up not trading this pattern.

The 2 trades I made today were the following two charts:

EURUSD 20M:

USDCHF 20M:

Both were reasonably profitable but didn’t hit TP2. Horrible R/R on both though! Might not have been worth the risk in retrospect.

Tymen mentioned earlier not to take these retracement trades, which confuses me, as I thought the whole point of our CBL entry strategy was to trade the retracement.

I’ll keep testing/demoing various currencies/indices/timeframes to see how well this system works all around.

[jcgibson]

Hey guys, can someone help me out with the following trade:

In looking for an entry into the anticipated post-squeeze trend, the first entry point, marked in green fails to be hit and there is no entry into the uptrend at this point (is this even a valid entry CBL, given that it’s so close to the mid-BB).

Price then goes into a head-fake and BB starts trumpeting. I have marked the extreme candle (second green line) but cannot find a way to enter this trade.

It can’t be classified as a bubble or a sausage, so our traditional CBL entry is most likely invalid?

Also, the BB are trumpeting, so a simple CBL entry doesn’t seem right either?

I’d really appreciate it if you would let me know how you would deal with this situation, Tymen.

Thanks.

IronHeart

On your first trade you should have been on a short from the top BB.

That trade is still in play until it hits the Lower BB or turns back on you.

The second trade you have the proper CBL you just needed to enter after the 2nd up candle.

John

[Graviton]

Thinking ahead. Looking at M30. Is that a squeeze on EURUSD M30 forming? Maaaaabe. Wax on, wax off.

[Graviton]

Getting a glass of good wine. I can out-wait whoever is on the other side of this trade, if I just have a glass of good wine. It’s a waiting game.

[didilut]

Well, since you opened your heart you’ll have to put up with my thoughts on your situation.

I sense that you’re looking to forex as “the way out” of your current job, life, whatever. That will not work. Success and happiness breed more of the same and vice versa.

Look hard in the mirror and ask yourself what you can do TODAY to increase happiness in your life - and then DO those things. I think you may be surprised by finding that one positive change is often followed by another and another and the wheel starts turning in the right direction.

Only a person in balance, in my belief, has any chance with the markets.

And if your account isn’t large enough to trade with bigger stops and longer time frames, switch to Oanda or another micro/nano lot broker and trade as if your account was 1M $ while you build your account up by compounding as well as depositing as a reward after profitable months.

Forex isn’t gambling but it can play hell with your psychology. I think we both know what forex actually is: a business. You can succeed but it will take hard work in many areas. If you give up you can be sure of one thing - you won’t succeed in forex…

Good luck John!

Hi O990l6mh , I agree with you on the psychological conditions of trading, and maybe our friend MerchantPrince just needs a little support, and as you did (according Tymen earlier:p), must move to higher TF and no longer want scalping at all costs …
I use 30 minutes, 60 minutes and 4 hours, with results honorably trying to fully understand the trend …
In any case I support and encourage MerchantPrince persevere in the path that shows Tymen:)

[cordite]

IronHeart

On your first trade you should have been on a short from the top BB.

That trade is still in play until it hits the Lower BB or turns back on you.

The second trade you have the proper CBL you just needed to enter after the 2nd up candle.

John

I’d say that a short entry isn’t there going short on that first trade. No candle draws after the CBL that is smaller than the extreme candle, so no indication to enter. If it was a squeeze this wouldn’t matter.

I haven’t looked at the 2nd chart yet.

[hachiko]

Trading lots of other stuff, but since PTB saw this eurusd trade, thought I’d walk you through it.

sometimes you can win by just doing nothing.
sometimes you get paid for being more patient than the guy on the other side of the trade.

I really appreciate your commentary on the trade. Not sure if this was your live or demo account but I am glad to hear your description. Maybe PTD & your kind self could work together to place this info on a chart.

I have also found in my short period of trading that managing a trade is very difficult. This has happened to me many time - I will have a multi-pip profit only to watch half of it evaporate; so next time I will pull out of a trade on a retracement only to see the price take off again.

The things you have done, like scaling in as the trade goes in your favour and scaling back out if the price retraces are techniques I have only just discovered. I first read about them on Tess’s old thread.

Thank you again,
hachi san

[Graviton]

eurusd price now 1.3288 again. Quit now? Did the Americans quit when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Heck no. Up 38 pips. This trade is going right along with the picture I had in my head. I’ll quit when it strays from that picture. Up 42 pips now. Dropped SL to 1.3306. Sold another lot at 1.3285 price now at 1.3280

[Graviton]

Now price is breaking out of the squeeze and diving lower. Not sure how far ahead I am, way ahead. There will be plenty of time for counting, after the dealing is done.

[o990l6mh]

Did the Americans quit when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

Fell asleep during history class did you???

[Graviton]

Price is now bouncing off the 30M bottom BB. Not what I had in mind.

[Graviton]

Took 33 pips profit off the first lot. Setting SL to break even on the additional two lots.

[didilut]

@IronHeart

Hey didilut, the problem I had with identifying a long entry is the fact that the BB cannot be identified as a squeeze nor a bubble/sausage…

I ended up not trading this pattern.

The 2 trades I made today were the following two charts:

EURUSD 20M:

USDCHF 20M:

Both were reasonably profitable but didn’t hit TP2. Horrible R/R on both though! Might not have been worth the risk in retrospect.

Tymen mentioned earlier not to take these retracement trades, which confuses me, as I thought the whole point of our CBL entry strategy was to trade the retracement.

I’ll keep testing/demoing various currencies/indices/timeframes to see how well this system works all around.

I took the graph EUR / USD TF 1hour, look how easy it is.
I think keep it simple and flexible with the rules, and especially check the trend on a higher TF, this thread is not called “the finest in trend trading” while listening to our mentor and all follow the trend!! !

[hachiko]

Sadly, this realization merely matches what I’ve come to painfully learn over the past seven months of trying to succeed at forex: [I]nothing[/I] works. Moving averages, hi-lo breakouts, bollinger band analysis, trading reversals off daily channels, it’s all bunk. In the end, all you end up doing is losing money - and eventually lots of it in big chunks.

MP,
Don’t give up! I suggest you have a look at o990l6mh’s “My Trading Log” thread. He has a day by day description of his journey from a novice trader into his current state. Start right at the beginning and watch the transformation. It is an excellent story and one I wish I had read prior to going live last year.

[Graviton]

Now I wait, again. I’ll either stop out BE on the remaning two lots and pocket 33 pips profit, or it will go lower and I’ll trade it till it quits on me. Ummm, good wine.