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Beginner Questions
891

Hi Tymen

Im new in forex … But I have finished the school, read this whole thread also read your candlestick pattern pdf.

I want to ask … sorry if this itches you.

This is not about your system … your system looks great and no argue or anything.

I want to know if you have ever tried other systems like ichimoku, thv (found this from other forum), sonic R(found this from other forum).

And hopefully you can suggest me which one Is good for me to try … in addition to your system. Just for comparison sake.

Sorry if this bother u.

892

what you want to see that I lost my money ok I can show you but you claim that forex is not rulette and you can make money on it so show me one - two years every months + % profit…

fxbook it`s nice page to show it :wink:

893

Now that silly gambling question, posted by someone who …I don’t know why they are on this forum in the first place. :confused:

This matter is off topic but I thought I would deal with it anyway, and readers can benefit. :slight_smile:

[B][U]The Question[/U][/B] : Is Forex gambling?

[B][U]Answer [/U][/B] NO

[B]I will offer proof below…[/B]

I suggest 3 criteria for gambling (you will be able to think of more)

  1. There are no goods or services produced - money changes hands only.

  2. One person’s gain is another person’s loss.

  3. Every trial or bet is an independent event and cannot be predicted by pasts bets or trials.

[B]Lets look at a few cases…[/B]

[B]OPENING A BUSINESS[/B]

  1. Goods or services are produced.
  2. No person looses.
  3. If the business is sold and has a good history (goodwill), then there is good reason to believe the new owner will prosper - the events are not independent.

Therefore - not gambling.

[B]GOING FROM YOU HOUSE TO YOUR LETTERBOX.[/B]

(This walk could be dangerous - lightning could hit you, a big dog could eat you, you may be attacked, heart attack possibility).

  1. A service is provided.
  2. No one looses while you check your letterbox.
  3. The possibility of these dangerous things happening is so small as to be negligible.

[B]ROULETTE[/B]

  1. True.
  2. True.
  3. True - people are forever trying to develp systems to beat the wheel but it does not require an extensive mathematical background to look at the 37/38 identically sized spaces on a roulette wheel (note the 35-1 payoff on a single number) to conclude that the game is [U]umbeatable[/U].
    With a 1/38 chance of winning a single number bet and a 35-1 payoff it is easy to calculate the negative expectancy of -5.26.

However, this does not stop huxters from selling systems to gullable people.

The only method that does win is to use visual ballistics, that is visual tracking.
This involves looking at the wheel when it is spun and predicting the correct number by using a method based on the mathematical formulas of kinematics.
You then bet late into the spin.
It is a secret method and highly successful.
You only have to get one prediction in 35 correct to break even.
I usually get it correct about 1 in 7 or 1 in 15.
Sometimes I have been able to get 2 predictions in a row correct.

This, of course, means that you have a substancial edge over the casino.
If you want to know more, here is a hyperlink…

AdvantagePlayer.com: Roulette - Hosted by Laurence Scott

I have used this method and been very successful with it but not with real money because I believe gambling is sinful.

[B]FOREX[/B]

  1. A service is produced. Read the following thread…

http://forums.babypips.com/forextown/20778-ethics-question.html

[B]Rhodytrader [/B]says…

You do realize, right, that the forex market is the basis for global trade? When you participate in it you contribute to the liquidity of the market for the exchange of currencies which is fundamental to the flow of goods and services around the world.

[B]Clint [/B]in his very excellent and authoritative post says…

Speculators, for their part, provide a vital service to the commercial interests by providing ample, round-the-clock liquidity to the forex market, and by assuming currency-risk which the commercial interests choose to shed.

  1. According to the above, not everyone is losing when someone else gains.
    However, traders such as [B]Clint [/B]himself, can correct me on that.

  2. The price action is not independent of other price actions.
    The price of today is directly dependent on what it was yesterday.
    This is true for every timeframe and is rather obvious.

[B]So…according to this
Forex is not gambling!![/B]

894

ye ye tymen1 it is my last post here… If forex is not rullete - somebody should discovered system that make money:) show me that bilionaire on forbes list! or just simply show me your trading stats THERE IS NOT SYSTEM that will make money again and again

and acording to forbes forex is rulette :wink:

895

tymen, I am dont understand how to exit with BB
can you look at the chart please?
the first pierce of the lower BB level by the price action acured at exit 1.
but exit 1 is not good point for exit.
what indicator should I use to exit at exit3?

exemple.jpg700×420 62.4 KB

896

If you don’t spend the time and effort to study the subject then I guess it can be treated as roulette. I been spending a load of money buying books on trading, currency markets and technical analysis for the last 6 months. Must have read like 20 books on the subject. Would like to get the views of Tymen1 and/or other experienced traders what’s the most efficient way to learn. How much time should i spend on reading books/hanging out in forums like this/backtesting trading ideas? 33% on each? Forex trading isn’t popular here in Hong Kong so I ain’t got any trading partners here. :frowning:

897

Well, since its your last post, I will not waste any more time with you!! :frowning:

My brother is a millionare and I …will not tell you where I am financially. (my policy is not to declare anything on a world wide internet).
There are many on this forum who could attest to good earnings consistantly.

5% of traders in forex are very successful and continue to be so.

[B]Forex is not easy but it is not roulette!![/B] :stuck_out_tongue: :smiley: :wink:

898

There is nothing wrong with exit 1. It would have made money and would have been following the suggestion of exiting when the price actions extends above or below the BBs. What I would have done would be to either exit, or place a stop close to the current price which based on your chart I would have been stopped out with a gain before exit 2 or 3. This could change as Tymen revels more of his strategy.

It’s important from a physiological point of view that you base if your exit was good or bad on if you followed your system and if you made pips. It doesn’t matter where to price action goes after your exit you should not let this influence your next trade, unless of course you have enough backtested data to make a change. What a rookie trader will do is say that well I got out to early on my last trade so I will hang around this time, and of course the price action will go against you but you’ll end up with a loss.

899

Of the ones you quote, I have studied the ichimoku in detail but I found that I am not really a fan of it.

I am more of a short term trader.
I am a fan of trend trading.

No, I have not tried a whole range of systems, though I have looked at many.
I am more stable - it does not pay to be a forex gypsy.

Sorry I cannot recommend anything - everyone’s personality is different.
What I like, you may not like.

900

Thank you for that good answer, [B]TraderAlan[/B] :slight_smile: :slight_smile:

[B]
Would like to get the views of Tymen1 and/or other experienced traders what’s the most efficient way to learn.[/B]

The best way I know is to get a good all round education on the subject covering every aspect.
For this you do the Babypips school. :slight_smile:

(As a school teacher, I would say that!! :stuck_out_tongue: )

901

Thank you for a great answer to [B]RenaLa’s [/B]post, [B]BlackSwan[/B]!! :slight_smile: :slight_smile:

I will have much to say about BB exits when we get there.

902

OK, a short break for dinner and a walk of my beautiful ginger cat, [B]Sweetie[/B]. :smiley: :smiley: :smiley:

He is angry with me because he is bored and want to go for a walk. :smiley:

Now please try to hold off on the questions so that I can post… NEW MATERIAL!!

903

you cant show your stats because this is world forum and terorist or others can see it of course! but because of that you want show as system that is making money because some terorist can use it to make money :smiley: and kill many peoples

904

thank you BlackSwan :slight_smile:
actually, I was thinking of any sings of the trend continuation …

tymen must have a clue :wink:

905

I do not want to waste any more time with you. :frowning:
You think that forex is gambling.

So why are you here on this forum?
I strongly suggest you go elsewhere - before you become a nuisance here and then a troll. :frowning:

906

Forex is like gambling except if you study it and understand the math behind it you can control your odds. Proper R/R with strict rules for entering and exiting…but what do I know I am as new as they come…

907

Count me among those who’d rather this thread get back to covering the strategy rather than retarded discussions of forex vs. gambling, endless computer programming issues, etc.

There’s a gem of a strat here and I for one would very much like to get to the heart of it without additional delays. :wink:

~ John (Merchantprince)

[I]“Nobody can be exactly like me. Even I have trouble doing it.”[/I]

908

^^^
Word…Back to school please…

909

My sentiments exactly, Merchantprince!! :slight_smile:

And that exactly what we are going to do, starting with a continuation of the analysis of a chart that produced very poor pips.

Remember this chart? >>>

1024×640

Lets see what happens when we add the Bollinger bands and the MMACDnew.

910

The reason why the odds are stacked against you statistically in roulette is there are actually 38 numbers on the roulette wheel, so the odds of you getting the right number are 38-1 but if you do win the roulette pays at 36-1

This means the house has an advantage over you.

Forex is very differnet, the price can do only 1 of two things, it can go up, go down.
Unlike roulette the price action is not random it is driven by known factors. Trading forex while having access to facts and figures related to market forces, would be like playing roulette with a magnet attatched to the side of the roulette wheel, we would know if the magnet is on, the odds are much improved for the ball to land on certain numbers, enough to tip the balance in our favour and you would see casinos going bust all over Vegas.

Now if the roulette player is playing on a wheel weighted by a magnet, but he does not know where the magnet is, he would be like the forex trader who has not learned how to use the tools at his disposal, even though they could both be playing with vastly improved odds neither of them is, and both of them are going to lose.