The finest in trend trading

You need to zoom in to see cross. Here is the same chart zoomed in to the last three candles. Use the tool I circled in red.

Also, it is not officially a cross until that candle closes, which will be at 00:00GMT. You would not enter until that time at the earliest.

Hi friends,
a few noobish-questions from me:

1. So i have to choose a home-, a trend- and a timing chart.

Understood so far. :slight_smile:

Question is: Is the 30 minute chart already too ā€œcloseā€ as a home chart?
I would have to choose sth like the 10 minute chart or even closer as my timing chart. This would give me too many ā€œwhipsawsā€ (wrong signals), right?

2. So today i took a trade. (GBPUSD)

I picked the following charts:
Home= 30 minutes
Trend= Daily
Timing= 10 minute (but i wasnt sure how to use this information)

Trend chart showed a good downtrend. (see attached picture)
So i looked for short trades.
Corrects so far?

I looked at the home chart (30 minutes) and saw a SHORT-signal.
At point A.
Only one candle later i got stopped out at point B.
:eek:
Hum but looking at it now there actually isnt any SHORT-signal.
Okay then i see my mistake here.
Maybe i was WHISHING to see a signal there :smiley:

But a few candles later I get a SHORT-signal which would also have been stopped out.
Question is: Am i generally missing something?

I see some Doji-like candles.
They usually show an indecision of the market right?
So i should have waited for a better signal?

3. Whats with something like point C?

The MMACD just touches the 0 line.
Question: Could i use this as a valid SHORT-signal in this case?

:slight_smile:

Great lesson today Tymen1!



I think everything looked good right up to this point:

The entry was valid, but I exited to early. The MACD doesnā€™t cross back until the fifth candle.

Here is how I would have executed the trade. I would enter once the candle closes that confirms the MACD zero line cross going down. Then I would have exited once the MACD crosses the zero line going up. I would have taken a loss of 34 pips + spread. So I would have done it a little different then you but I still would have taken a loss.

3. Whats with something like point C?

Letā€™s look at point C zoomed in:

So I would have not entered being that the zero line was never crossed. However, we know that MACD would move faster if we where to look at a shorter time frame. How about changing to the 20 minute chart:

Now we are looking good. I entered those two trades (demo accont) and got 60 pips. Now I should point out that there is a third entry there that would have resulted in the loss of about 8 pips; I was busy and couldnā€™t take that one. Still would have ended up with more then 50 pips of profit.

So my point is if you wanted to take the trade then looking at the shorter timeframe would have given you a good signal. Tymen recommends not looking at anything shorter then the 20 minute chart however. I used the four hour chart as my longer time frame.

Not every trade is going to work out, a good strategy makes money in the long run not every trade. If you look back at the 30 minute chart you can see that in the previous MACD cross down there were plenty of pips to be made.

[B]T[/B][B]hank you very, very much BlackSwan. This made many things clearer to me![/B]
:slight_smile:

I was stopped out because i was using a StopLoss 300 pips away.
Do you also use a StopLoss?

I remember something beeing said about a safety StopLoss for the case that technical problems show up. How would i actually set such a StopLoss?

tymen, great thread, followed it from day oneā€¦thanks alot for taking the time to try an help peopleā€¦

guys like you are rare in this world and deserve everything they want from life.

i am quite new to forex so i doubt i can contribute much to help others, so this is why iā€™ve been quiet so far.

BLACKSWAN: in your last chart i dont understand why you entered the trade the 2nd time when mmacd had not crossed again?

i also wanted to ask you tymenā€¦do you just use mechanical systems to determine when to enter and exit a trade?..or do you also apply touch and feeling when reading the markets??..like instincts etcā€¦

thanks

Take a look at post number 855, this will answer that question.

I like where this is going. Dr Alexander Elderā€™s key system (an author who has had a big input to my trading) is the triple screen system - higher timeframe - trading timeframe - entry timeframe and he does very well by it.

It is easy to get lost in one timeframe, and need to keep in mind the big picture/trend as well as the fine detail/retracements to win pips and win more pipsā€¦

Interestingly I do know that there are people who successfully trade as low as 1m using BB reversal candles. Using the right entry signals there is big potential on that timescale. Itā€™s choosing the right pair and the right time for trading when it is most fluid and relatively few whipsaws.

Enjoying the thread and expect it will add a lot to my trading knowledge.:slight_smile:

The biggest problem for me to use this method on 15m tf is sometimes the mmacd seems to be crossing the 0 horizontal line but then it goes back ā€¦ then iā€™ll lose about 10-20 pips on this kind of trade.

any tips on this?

check previous posts on TFs - lowest mentioned was 20min before you see too much noise with signals. as signal noise is in an issue, we filter it by using a top down approach with the tfā€™s, not down up.

ie. signal on the high TF matching signal on lower TF - enter if rules (yet to be fully released) met - ignore opposing signals on lower TF as these are not used for exits - exits currently mentioned involve touches of Bolinger Bands

regards,
dan

ps. experts out there correct me - just my understanding thus far

First suggestion would be to trade on a higher timeframe. Tymen recommends 20 minute or higher. This helps with whipsaws, but even on a higher TF the MACD can quickly cross back. If that happens you should exit, some small losses happen but you should be able to make it up with bigger wins.

Iā€™m pretty sure Tymen has more to say about how to stay out of whipsaw trades.

It seems to me that A problem - though perhaps not THE biggest problem - is trying to trade with parts of Tymenā€™s system without having had the whole system revealed. Stillā€¦I hope you are being profitable with what you are doing.

aha! All clear now thanks black swan!

It would be nice to add BB to the charts displaying in the posts 251,291, 294 to see how the price behaves inside BB and see the reason of exit after a second retracement candle

thank you BlackSwan,
i dont think I can fix internet. :frowning: Is there a way you can attach the video to the thread as you did with MMACD code compilation explanation?

We have reached page 100 and I have had visitors!!

Big party!! :stuck_out_tongue:

I am bit wobbly woo right nowā€¦arms sore from lifting party stuff!! (glug glug glug) :smiley: :stuck_out_tongue:

Nice bax choco latesā€¦

Sorry not fit to do anything for 24 hourssā€¦

Nice partyā€¦hic

Ahhhhhhā€¦plopā€¦zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

HaHa If anyone deserves a party it is you, Enjoy

Iā€™m guessing we will see you Monday then:)

Enjoy your weekend:D

Hahaā€¦Donā€™t drink and trade, could be dangerous

I certainly hope it isnā€™t the last weā€™ve seen of him till Monday. It seems we are close to a denouement to our tale and it would be a shame to wait another four days(!) to hear how the story ends.

Besides, no trading on the weekends, great time to learn.


		John (Merchantprince)

[I]ā€œNobody can be exactly like me. Even I have trouble doing it.ā€[/I]

Hello Tymenā€¦started following your post a few days ago and have read it through AND printed it! It is like reading a good mystery novel with little nuggets along the way leading to ā€œwho-dun-itā€. Iā€™m a fresh & new toddler in Forex and this has been a great education so far. Thank you so much for the time you have put in. I opened a demo account in GFT and have all the 3 charts set upā€¦

What Iā€™m not clear on is which time frame to look for the MMACD crossing. I understand the longest time frame is our overall trend indicator so not that one. Is it my hourly chart? or does the MMACD need to be crossing on both hourly and daily to trigger an entry?