As to Tyman’s question… I want both at the same time. I think he’ll be showing us how to get both in the upcoming days through a 2 lot system…
OK, just hold the posts for 5 seconds so that I can now answer all the replies.
I am just going shopping, then I will be back full on. 
Sorry Tymen - just a quick post as I didn’t want to miss this one - The math prefers option 1 - which i would go for, however, the idea of taking a profit 98% of the time which would cover the 50% of losers for option1 would have me playing a conservative method of taking first profit 98% of the time and running the second position for the 50% of larger wins. The profits would be somewhere inbetween both options but importantly a graph of equity would show a nice consitant uptrend.
I answer the question asked before the more appropriate one becomes apparent with the benefit of hindsight. I would say #1 because one would need to lose 10 trades in a row to be at a disadvantage (chances are slim). It might mean taking fewer trades because the opportunities for 100 pips profit potential with 10pips loss would be rarer but less stressful for my personality. Isn’t waiting part of the game? Was it in the other thread, I remember Tymen writing and I agree that the trader can be likened to a sniper!
Longest 5 seconds known to man 
My fibs in MT4 has seven lines : 100%, 5 lines, 0%
I have another less known platform which offers only two lines - 0% and 100% by default levels
Just a bit of hyperbole, but I think we all agree with the sentiment being expressed.
Welcome back, Tymen. I hope all went (is still going?) well with the move.
In MT4 you can edit the lines to any amount You want. Just go to the edit screen for Fibo then the fibo lines tab then add or subtract lines, change colors add description.
To put price on the line In description type some spaces, then %$ it will print the price level.
OK, back I am and to answer the whole matter in detail.
Oh, so many posts!!
The original question was meant to say that you had only ONE trade.
A lot of readers assumed 2 trading methods and that is completely [U]my fault [/U]- I did not make myself clear.
Nevertheless, It has been an interesting and prolonged discussion, the best part being that we are free of trolls at this time (I was expecting them to interfere).
It is a rare time in my memory on this forum that we are presently free of these beasts!!
So now - what to make of the posts?
Firstly, my congratulations and encouragement to [B]Didilut[/B].
You, having great trouble with English, are very brave to continue studying from this thread.
I also bring you news that the refugee girl, Grace is now in Valencia, Spain where she is trying to get work. I am constantly in communication with her and she has asked me to send her some money.
Next, my acknowledgement to [B]Graviton[/B].
Your 2 decades of trading experience really show in your initial post which was a pleasure to read.
Your experience puts you in the realm of [B]Rhodytrader (Honorary FX Member)[/B], [B]Tess, Jocelyn, Robert Carter[/B] and [B]Petefader[/B]!!
You have, of course, joined all the mathematicians on this thread in concluding that option 1 was a better long term choice.
Then my thanks to [B]NForex [/B]who did a superb job in trying to analyse the whole matter using 2 contracts and posted several analytic charts. The question assumed only one contract - again my fault for not being clear but nevertheless, [B]NForex [/B]went to a lot of trouble to work it all out.
For those who assumed a long term strategy instead of a single trade, my thanks to all those who did the mathematical calculations.
Those readers being [B]Samys, Master Tang, PTB[/B] (nice comment about the grey hair!! :D), [B]IronHeart, Aarnog, o990l6mh[/B] ([B]Honorary FX [/B][B]Member[/B]), [B]Jack B Pip, Trader Alan, Graviton, Dand[/B] and [B]King[/B].
[B]All the mathmaticians as far as I can remember, came up with option 1.[/B]
Being a maths teacher myself, I deliberately skewed the question this way to try to discern the mathematical people from those who place the emphasis on emotion. 
The discerners of emotions being present in the trade tended to choose option 2.
They were [B]Red Hunter, RenaLa, Ken DoubleU, Merchantprince, MCAWally, [/B][B]Slane, Simonjf77[/B] and [B]Loppan[/B].
Then there were several people, namely [B]JCGibson, Simonjf77, Sijeeva[/B], [B]Gregart, Paulmccarthy, Kudu70[/B] and [B]Amosfella [/B]who opted for a combination of both options in one form or another.
The jury appears to be still out for [B]xXTrizzleXx [/B]and [B]Xelnar[/B].
[B]Mystic [/B]was the first to realise that the question involved just one trade.
From the quality of his post it is easy to see that has a very command of the English language!!
Then [B]Xelnar [/B]and [B]Simonjf77 [/B]saw the one trade too!!
[B][U]My Analysis of the Answers[/U][/B]
I think it would be reasonably fair to assume that if you only had ONE trade, then, faced with these choices, you would choose option 2.
With option 2, your pips, even being less, are at least guaranteed (almost) whereas in option 1, you are effectively gambling in the hope of a much greater gain.
[B]What is most interesting, however, is the division between the two groups of answers assuming an ongoing series of trades.[/B]
The hardened mathematicians go quite correctly for option 1.
The people who can see emotions coming into play prefer the safety of option 2.
Lets look at some interesting points…
To this I would say yes to those who are new traders who need every bit of confidence they can get and also those whose funds are very limited and would get very nervous at the sight of 3/4 losses in a row.
When I first started trading I punched $600 losses into my account on a regular basis.
But then I was a bit of a wild guy.
I have always believed in going right out on a limb!!
Back in my earlier days I used to go hang gliding and I made a habit of jumping off high sand dunes and regularly crashing my aircraft. Not so funny landing upside down all the time, especially when you are harnessed in!!
My forex trading got the same treatment when I started!!
Today I am much more polished and markedly more conservative!!
We are on terrafirma - and the more firma, the less terra!!
I know the danger of losing your money and I fully understand the need to have a highly rated win/loss ratio.
1 Like
Well, Tyman, I kinda thought you wanted only one answer, BUT, I like having my cake, and eating it to… I like both…
If forced to pick one option, I’d go with option 1. But you’d have to have a gun to my head to get me to take only one when there is even the remotest possibility of having both…
So, gun to the head for only one option pick is option 1…
[B]Maybe this post sums up the whole position best…[/B]
This is what I am inclined to think too!!
A start out would dictate the use of option 2.
But when you are financially secure, you could choose option 1 for greater profits while putting up with the frustrations of 3/4 or more losses in a row.
[B]But wait a minute!![/B]
If you had a system which had such a high win/loss ratio would you not work it at a much higher lot value?
That is, would you not exploit that advantage for all that it is worth?
What do readers and prospective new traders look for on this forum in the way of a trading system.
Something that is complex - NO.
Something full of indicators - maybe.
Something with a high risk/reward ratio - most new traders do not understand the term, let alone realise its significance.
But what happens when a system with a high win/loss ratio comes along - people gravitate to it like bees to a honey pot!!
I proved this conclusively some time ago when I scored 2000 posts.
I then posted a hoax system as a joke and called it the greatest winning system ever.
Now just about everyone on the forum jumped on the bandwagon - except a few experienced traders who did not want to be embarrassed!!
So I think we can conclude this exercise at this point by saying that a high win/loss ratio system is the best confidence booster that there is!!
If we have such a system, then we can trade larger amounts and compound our profits!!
[B]This is certainly the way to go, and with that final comment I now embark on continuing this thread by showing you how we develop our system to a win/loss ratio of about 90% or more!![/B]
At the outset I say that we will also try to improve our risk/reward ratio as well.
But I think we should realise that my above example was rather extreme - a risk/reward ratio of 1:10 is a very rare thing indeed.
Much more common is a 1:2 or 1:3 ratio.
With a win/loss ratio of about 50/50, such trades can get you into trouble very quickly without astute money management.
So we will work on the win/loss ratio now and look again at the risk/reward with the Fibonacci method - [B]the retracement value I used was the 38.2% level.[/B]
It was some time ago that I was reading my copy of John Bollinger’s book “Bollinger on Bollinger Bands” that I happened on some sort of discovery.
I remembered what I had discovered and in the days afterward I looked further into this and discovered even more and the outcome was quite startling!!
[B]Yes, I had made a discovery!![/B]
Whether it is new or others knew about it I do not know.
What I do know is that this stuff has never before been made known anywhere.
And it is the stuff from which a 90% or more win/loss ratio is generated!!
I put it to extensive tests and it passed with flying colours every time!!
This amazing method was rock solid and did not fail.
[B]What is it?[/B]
[B]It is the DNA of the Bollinger Bands!![/B]
And with that I am going to stop and leave you in suspense right here!!
After all, its past my bedtime!!
Night night - have fun speculating!!
damn i was away this weekend and missed all the fun!
i was about 12 pages behind so i read the exercise thread and thought, option 2 would have been better, but only becuase of the confidence it would give a trader…
losing 50% of the time would be too much of a rollercoaster for a guy like me, and havng 3,4,5 in a row would seriously test your emotions…frustration could creep in…and that could make the problem worse.
i think we need confidence as traders, and that comes from winning.
i do have one question: if [B]H4[/B] was my home chart (and was on an uptrend) and i had drawn my CBL based on a downtrend, in [B]H4[/B], so waiting to go long…but on the [B]daily[/B] the currency pair was on a overall downtrend…would i still enter this trade? or must there be an agreement on both the daily and the H4?
in my experience there must be an agreement between both time frames thus making it a safer trade, but im not so sure how to approach this based on your method tymen.
thanks
Now we have to get serious, Tymen you are not the youngest anymore. I think you have to stop sleeping, think what happens if (lets be frank) you croak?
Then we are all sitting up the creek without a paddle.
Example 1: The older you get, the less time you have, the longer you should stay up and enjoy.
Example 2: The older you get the faster you should drive since you have less time to go anywhere. I vote for speed-limit plus age = Total Speed.
:eek:
Made me chuckle, this!
Well, we are speculators, so yes, we will probably speculate.
I feel like Frodo in Lord of the Rings. What a journey! Hope you sleep a bit cooler now Tymen. Till it be morrow.
This thread only gets more and more interesting…
Incidentally, I am currently reading the same book as mentioned. Wonder if I can finish the book, work out the DNA and post it before Tymen wakes up!
Jokes aside, Tymen, my hats are off to you. I humbly await the treasure you are about to reveal.