The Forex Portfolio - How to Gain Consistent Profits by Staying in the Market 24/7

[shofouforex]

Also, this week is when I started back on my live account full time and stopped trading in my head like I had been for the past few months!

[Sweet_Pip]

Sweet Pip

Out of interest, what is your selection criteria?

I do a strength analysis on each currency and rank them between 0 (weakest) & 7 (strongest). Then I select pairs that have the weakest/strongest currency relationship. So GBP was ranked a 0 and USD was 7…which meant I would look to go short on GBPUSD. I have only been looking at pairs with currencies ranking 0-2 with those ranking 5-7…which gives me about 9 pairs to work with. That’s the first step.

The second step would be to select from those 9 pairs, the ones that are trending according to their strength with HH/HL, or LL,/LH… So GBPUSD should show price trending down…and then for them to be in the correctio phase …a pullback up to a fib level.

The third step, is to wait for a bull or bear candlestick to signal the end of a correction phase to enter.

So by that time I’m down to very few pairs to choose from…lol. However since many pairs are correlated, maybe that’s just the way it is. If you get off the train early, you may have to wait awhile to get back on…especially on the longer timeframes.

[IyaJenkei]

I’ll post some stuff about my losses over the weekend. Right now I’m down about 2% of my account realized. But I have a positive 5% in unrealized gains. my big winners I’ve let run and I’ve cut the losers pretty quickly(after about 60 pip). Some of the reason is because of uncertainty after price has moved. I looked at the charts again and thought why was I “long/short”. Which could be because I was to hasty to be in the market. Also from the commercial side it seems we are in a turning point and even seasonally. I dont have a direction on the GBP JPY NZD. just because they seem so iffy to me right now.

[mozdef]

…
At today’s London fix, 16:00 GTM, I closed all my orders with a 05.4% gain. During the week there was over 02% draw down, so don’t be fooled in thinking it’s “RISK FREE”.

Interesting results dpip and thanks for posting. Logically there should be an equal chance of the reverse happening ie. during the week you were up by 2% but ended up finishing the week in 5.4% drawdown. Or is there a real edge to looking at last week’s trading to give you a bias which would make this scenario a less probable chance of occurring hence being ultimately profitable? I would like your thoughts on this.

It seems to me the most important part to this “basket” strategy is bias while being very forgiving in your entries. This is similar to Cyco’s thread with the only exception being that he uses a mechanical strategy for entries/SL/exits etc. He has also been pretty successful which lends additional credibility to this whole “diversifying” thing! Count me in on the MG99 bandwagon, will start demo testing next week!

[krannin]

I started the MG99M yesterday and is too early to said if I have to cut the losses. I have only 8 trades open but my mayor loss is in the USD/CAD I’m going long with -30 pips but I hope it get better on Monday. The other trades are a mix of gain and losses but their are ±10 pips, it’s doesn’t bother me yet

Here is a screenshot for the USD/CAD

[rynlds2]

ahem…:8:…well I didn’t have a great week but not all is lost yet.

It seems I don’t have enough trades open to call it much of a portfolio so will have to maybe loosen up my selectivity criteria a bit.

I’m right there with you. This week hurt me. I’m too selective and only pick the ones that are FAR into their move so some seemed to turn on me in a bad way and fall of the table. Then my second issue comes in, I hold the losers too long thinking its just a retrace and it’ll go back in my favor. Still improvement to be made on my part. The methodology is solid, just poor instincts on my part. I’ll post results and a chart or 2 of my losers tomorrow. I’m glad I had the week I did. Very humbling after my first week. I’m about 7-8% down in realized and about even in unrealized. I’ll work out a few things and try to turn things around next week!

[jimbo79]

If the previous week’s candle was a strong bull candle, I entered a market buy order.
If the previous week’s candle was a strong bear candle, I entered a market sell order.
If the previous week’s candle showed indecision, lack of conviction. I passed and did nothing.

Did you maybe do a fast test if you’d look at weekly TF but not just last week’s bar but last 2 or 4 bars what a change that would represent in amount of pairs traded and effect on profitability of your pairs?

Just asking this cause what if you have a monthly uptrend but last week’s price was retracing or even reversing but if you just look last week’s bar you won’t know that and bias would be then downtrend when we’re still in monthly long uptrend?

[DonKabe]

Interesting results dpip and thanks for posting. Logically there should be an equal chance of the reverse happening ie. during the week you were up by 2% but ended up finishing the week in 5.4% drawdown. Or is there a real edge to looking at last week’s trading to give you a bias which would make this scenario a less probable chance of occurring hence being ultimately profitable? I would like your thoughts on this.

There is an edge, especially when the market is trending. Of course there will be weeks when the market shows a strong and solid up bar but then the upcoming week happen to be a retracement. Hopefully that won’t happen on all pairs at the same time, otherwise it’ll be a losing week.

I think that this method would work best if the trades are being closed at a predetermined % gain. We would still have a chance to have a positive week even if the market doesn’t go in the intended direction. Sometimes we’ll see ourselves beeing in the positive in the beginning of the week but in the negative in the end of the week. So by closing at a predetermined % we’ll hopefully be in profit either way.

Last week I traded this method and my equity was up 20% at the highest point. I closed all trades yesterday with a 12% gain.

[somerandomusername]

They cater to the sad and lonely people out there.

[d-pip]

mozdef & jimbo79,

To be honest, using the previous week’s candle was just a quick fly-by-the-seat-of-the-pants way for me to start playing with mg99’s portfolio method. So don’t make the mistake of thinking the idea is a well thought out, researched, back-tested method for long-term trend trading. LOL!

It’s based on a simple concept I use in my intra-day trading, Intra-day I have seen an edge when I determine my trend bias using the previous week’s candle, the angle of the 60 period moving average on the 4-hour and 10 period on the daily. Does that same edge work for long-term trend trading, I don’t know, it’s still a work-in-progress

Interesting results dpip and thanks for posting. [B]Logically there should be an equal chance of the reverse happening ie. during the week you were up by 2% but ended up finishing the week in 5.4% drawdown. Or is there a real edge to looking at last week’s trading to give you a bias which would make this scenario a less probable chance of occurring hence being ultimately profitable? I would like your thoughts on this.
[/B]
It seems to me the most important part to this “basket” strategy is bias while being very forgiving in your entries. This is similar to Cyco’s thread with the only exception being that he uses a mechanical strategy for entries/SL/exits etc. He has also been pretty successful which lends additional credibility to this whole “diversifying” thing! Count me in on the MG99 bandwagon, will start demo testing next week!

You can bet your last dollar if it was real money I would control the risk. Maybe check the daily candles as mg99, or an ATR based SL, count-back-line SL, fixed amount SL, something along those lines. But no way would I let it run all week without some safety valve in place.

[B]Did you maybe do a fast test if you’d look at weekly TF but not just last week’s bar but last 2 or 4 bars what a change that would represent in amount of pairs traded and effect on profitability of your pairs?[/B]

Just asking this cause what if you have a monthly uptrend but last week’s price was retracing or even reversing [B]but if you just look last week’s bar you won’t know that and bias would be then downtrend when we’re still in monthly long uptrend?[/B]

Yeah, I think so. There is a thread buried in the babypips archives that presents a simple two candle break method. 301 Moved Permanently

It’s a method I like and use on the 4-hour time frame. Something tells me it would be appropriate to use with the weekly candles along with mg99 portfolio concept. Maybe a topic for future discussion, method and system.

[somerandomusername]

Is there any software out there that would allow to run some backtests on these strategies?

[hellogoodbye4201]

Is there any software out there that would allow to run some backtests on these strategies?

You would need to quantify everything in the [I]system[/I] but this is not a system, it is a methodology and therefore will be nearly impossibly to quantify. If you can modify it into set rules you could test it.

Essentially a methodology is discretionary which isn’t possible to code unless made into a system with set rules.

[somerandomusername]

hellogoodbye

You have a valid point. I was wondering what impact different selection criteria would have on the overall methodology, say the difference between using last week’s candle to get a market bias v a defined period moving average as d-pip suggested. I’m not much of coder and can see that probably wouldn’t translate into an electronic system.

[Sweet_Pip]

hellogoodbye
I’m not much of coder and can see that probably wouldn’t translate into an electronic system.

Phewwww…glad to see that got nipped in the bud…lol. It’s so refreshing to not see something go through the stages of automation.

[somerandomusername]

Sweet Pips

I’m too much of a control freak to hand something over to some form of bot. I was just seeing if I could “juice” the results, honest!

[Sweet_Pip]

Sweet Pips

I’m too much of a control freak to hand something over to some form of bot. I was just seeing if I could “juice” the results, honest!

Sorry, I didn’t mean to single you out…I’ve just seen so many threads where ultimately someone (myself included) tries to automate it all and the rest of the thread focuses on that, so it was nice to hear that hopefully won’t happen.

[somerandomusername]

Sweet Pips

No worries, I didn’t take it that way.

[rynlds2]

Here are my sad week 2 results. Still working on the skill of exiting losers as you can see, a couple ran a bit on me. Hopefully week 3 will be a little better. There’s entirely too much red on this post…

[B]Week 2 start[/B] $49,074.33

[B][U]Open[/U][/B]
AUD/USD Short @ 1.02179 +11.3 pips $30.25
EUR/JPY Long @ 121.138 +67.1 pips $358.65
EUR/USD Short @ 1.30426 +19.2 pips $191.65
NZD/CAD Long @ 0.85061 -38.5 pips $-186.48
NZD/CHF Long @ 0.77595 +17.0 pips $182.76
USD/CAD Long @ 1.00850 +182.6 pips $871.70
USD/CHF Long @ 0.92807 +146.6 pips $779.78
[B]Total[/B] +405.3 pips $2,228.31

[B][U]Closed[/U][/B]
AUD/CAD Long @ 1.04368 +20.0 pips $117.46
AUD/NZD Long @ 1.23159 +24.5 pips $101.95
CAD/CHF Short @ 0.91320 +31.8 pips $143.91
CAD/JPY Short @ 89.334 -95.0 pips $-520.56
EUR/AUD Long @ 1.28499 -80.1 pips $-417.21
EUR/CAD Long @ 1.34673 -118.1 pips $-573.84
EUR/CHF Short @ 1.22770 +50.0 pips $267.51
EUR/USD Short @ 1.32738 +150.0 pips $750.45
EUR/USD Short @ 1.30650 -80.3 pips $-400.90
GBP/CAD Long @ 1.56304 -200.6 pips $-974.69
NZD/JPY Short @ 75.634 -90.1 pips $-500.13
NZD/USD Short @ 0.82441 -45.0 pips $-237.00
[B]Total[/B] -432.9 pips $-2,243.05

[B]Account Balance[/B] $46,831.28
[B]Available Equity[/B] $49,059.59
[B]Week 2 Totals[/B] -27.6 pips $-14.74

[hellogoodbye4201]

Sorry, I didn’t mean to single you out…I’ve just seen so many threads where ultimately someone (myself included) tries to automate it all and the rest of the thread focuses on that, so it was nice to hear that hopefully won’t happen.

“Good news everyone,” he said in a sarcastic tone, “I’ve began coding MG99’s methodology into an EA!”

[somerandomusername]

And an EA is what exactly?