The FX Market Is Crazy These Days. How Did You Handle It? :-)

The market is crazy these days. I believe that the solution here is proper lot sizing. How did you handle it guys? :slight_smile:

Risk management is always king above all the charts etc

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Indices observing, and taking part on consecutive 1M or 5M bar moves, keeping an ear always open for market driving news cause they overrule especially in this situation technical signals.

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Nobody is forced to trade on any day when a central bank is making a surprise (but predictable) interest rate cut, borders are being closed and governments are in crisis meetings - its like trying to board a train when it is not stopping at your station - and if you do get on, how do you get off?

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The market is merely reacting to an increase in risk swings - mostly not a time for TA but then that’s not my focus I suppose.

I went long dax yesterday morning but there was no TA involved - just an analysis of risk sentiment based on news and the bond market.

Many guys view the market as crazy all of the time :slight_smile:

Edit: btw here was what I saw last morning:

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Great point! :slight_smile:

There is no such thing as ‘the market’: there are many markets. For currency traders it is not even comparable, as ups and down are a good thing, whereas stock markets tend to view anything but a.linear,.steady.uptrend as a risk. . . which means that there is no one-size market and traders from.different markets.want.different things.

The only thing that all markets may share.is.when a big move.from.risk-on to risk-off happens globally, but again, for currencies it does not always pay to read too much into these flash-panics…

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The first week of the crisis for me was amazing. But even for an experienced trader like myself I got a little carried away by week two and made a few impulse decisions.

I’m still up big, but those few rash trades made me think twice, and realise that you never quite master the psychology part of trading.

Technically, for the style I trade the past few days have been really boring. I need short daily bars and low volatility for my low risk set ups.

But all were getting is 1000 point swings on the Dow.

Personally I think the fear is well out of control, both in terms of markets AND the general public.

Im really missing some good old brexit related stories.

Thank God I live in Thailand where we use bum guns on the toilet, no need to hoard rolls and rolls of paper.

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Stock market panic is over-stated by attention-grabbing headlines. The Dow has got to about 28% down in the last month but is now just about 22% down at worst. In the global financial crisis in 2008 on the other hand, it fell by 53% (though that fall was spread out over about 5 months).

I don’t watch any business/economic news on TV - the objective of TV journalism especially is to attract attention, not to inform - getting the facts right is nothing to do with anything.

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I changed the title into “FX” market to make it clear that I am referring to the forex market. :slightly_smiling_face:

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You’re long DAX :expressionless:
I hope you get out without too big a loss. This isn’t going to be over for months yet.

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The social implication is what’s causing this. People are already panicking and staying home, not spending money. This is at the very start of the pandemic. Without a mass produced vaccine, we’ve got months to go until the peak is reached. Thousands of small to medium sized businesses are going to be closing from lack of income. People won’t be able to afford mortgages and rent. Rent and property prices will come down. Millions of people globally will lose a significant amount of their income this year, less money into the economy, less profits, lower stock prices. The longer this lasts, the wider the implications for the economy.

Stopping the virus seems absolutely futile. China seem to have managed it and Italy are trying. But it only takes another break out and all that pain was for nothing. The way it spreads, it seems highly likely that these countries will see further outbreaks.

Most of the big economies have barely recovered from 2008.

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When I say ‘small’ that means for short period of time - in that instance only until the US market takes over - then the US10yr and US stock market become the leader.

If looking at EU stock market - they only lead when the Yanks are still asleep :slight_smile:

Which post? - i haven’t deleted a post in years

Btw - if you check the date and time of my’buying a small on dax’ you will note that it was March 13 UK morning.

Here is how the dax performed rest of the day following that:
DaxMar13th

Also worth noting - the turning point - doji or whatever it’s called - that’s when the US wakened up. :slight_smile:

Sorry, I’m tired and being peevish.

The sharp bit will be short, but most of the major economies aren’t in any better shape than they were in 2008. It could well be decades to recover and the government borrowing is going to put many countries at 150%+ debt vs GDP.

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Trading for a day isn’t analysing risk sentiment though, it’s just catching a retracement from a big move. Probably short sellers closing their positions. The market is 100% risk off and heading that way.

US waking up certainly mixes things up a bit. So does London. There used to be a thread on here that showed all 3 trading times which was most bought and sold. It was very interesting to see that the sentiment was different in each zone, probably for business reasons, but it made me very aware that at certain times you need to be careful. Today is a good example, the blue line marks London open, up trend for 10 hours goes completely the other way

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I seldom use 15 min charts but a little thing I picked up some years ago re ftse and timing.

Often around 8-9 am price will change direction - so if in the later part of Asia the futures are headed up then watch will price turn - usually does.

Edit: uk time

Another edit - just remembered posting about this back a few years:

I usually stay away from trading, but I still analyze the market and try to find only A+ setups.

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Nothing much. Just watching contagion again and again and again and again and again. Weirdly accurate, that film is :slightly_smiling_face:

Though I’ve short the EUR, AUD and XAU. So let’s see how it all goes

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