Stock market panic is over-stated by attention-grabbing headlines. The Dow has got to about 28% down in the last month but is now just about 22% down at worst. In the global financial crisis in 2008 on the other hand, it fell by 53% (though that fall was spread out over about 5 months).
I don’t watch any business/economic news on TV - the objective of TV journalism especially is to attract attention, not to inform - getting the facts right is nothing to do with anything.
The social implication is what’s causing this. People are already panicking and staying home, not spending money. This is at the very start of the pandemic. Without a mass produced vaccine, we’ve got months to go until the peak is reached. Thousands of small to medium sized businesses are going to be closing from lack of income. People won’t be able to afford mortgages and rent. Rent and property prices will come down. Millions of people globally will lose a significant amount of their income this year, less money into the economy, less profits, lower stock prices. The longer this lasts, the wider the implications for the economy.
Stopping the virus seems absolutely futile. China seem to have managed it and Italy are trying. But it only takes another break out and all that pain was for nothing. The way it spreads, it seems highly likely that these countries will see further outbreaks.
Most of the big economies have barely recovered from 2008.
When I say ‘small’ that means for short period of time - in that instance only until the US market takes over - then the US10yr and US stock market become the leader.
If looking at EU stock market - they only lead when the Yanks are still asleep
The sharp bit will be short, but most of the major economies aren’t in any better shape than they were in 2008. It could well be decades to recover and the government borrowing is going to put many countries at 150%+ debt vs GDP.
Trading for a day isn’t analysing risk sentiment though, it’s just catching a retracement from a big move. Probably short sellers closing their positions. The market is 100% risk off and heading that way.
US waking up certainly mixes things up a bit. So does London. There used to be a thread on here that showed all 3 trading times which was most bought and sold. It was very interesting to see that the sentiment was different in each zone, probably for business reasons, but it made me very aware that at certain times you need to be careful. Today is a good example, the blue line marks London open, up trend for 10 hours goes completely the other way
One annoying factor I have noticed concerns my long-term trades. These typically rely on entry if going long at breach of a lower daily high, with a stop-loss at that day’s low. Recently the daily ranges have been so wide that tactic would have entailed a capital risk of just too high a percentage of my account, even at minimum position sizes.
This is keeping me out of some good opportunities but I’m not going to change strategies just for a one-off bonus.
I’m just studying the market. in times of panic like these, not negotiating can be very profitable. today open a position in aud / usd after days of study and observation.
Low risk, risk what you’re willing to lose. If you’re on demo, great time to see how your analysis holds up. Also a great time to see how breaking news affects the market. Psychological teachings, for free. You just watch the charts.
And with all of the central bank action, wow, lots of analysis to read and digest. Crappy time in the line of existence, but you make as best you can out of the situation.
Yes, I have noticed the same thing. An approach I often like is to look for a more elegant Entry on a lower TF - there might be a nice cycle on the 240 or the Hourly, enabling an Entry half way up the Daily bar or something. Sorry, I know you know this stuff - just rambling really - but really am here just to say that yes, I have seen the same thing. I’m happy to cover a big spread if I am planning to hold a trade a while, but I wouldn’t at the moment so am not doing it.
In terms of a wider response to the thread - am basically sitting out at the moment, I don’t trade crises. Patience aided by all six of us being isolated at home for the next few weeks (eldest son, 15, has a persistent cough - schools have benched us).