The IcYcLoUd TrAdInG SySteM

Just wondering WHY 20 :confused: is the Magic number for the BB’s… if anyone has a theory?

Thanks :slight_smile:

Dobro, you are right. I have done that on the daily also but be careful with the markets not trending because you will get whipsaws up the yang yang. gl

That’s why I use ADX as filter.

Markets are trending the past 2 days so the system works well.
Just make sure to make the trade in the right direction.

I’m currently long EUR/GBP. A late entry but good enough.

heres an “accident” trade that make me ride the waves.

Been busy recently. I working inside bank call DBS if you guys heard b4.

Again a picture tells a thousand words.

Best Reg: Chin Liang


A while back I was interested in this system. At the time I couldn’t figure out why Bolinger Bands would be an effective filter. I haven’t thought much about it lately.

At the time, I thought of doing the following.

When a reverse SAR dot appears, count the number of periods for the [U]previous [/U]run of the PSAR dots. Use that number (max is 20) as the Bolinger Bands parameter for this reverse SAR dot.

This technique seemed to allow more profitable-looking trades than the fixed-period (20) Bolinger Bands permitted.

Just something to look at.

Barry

Chin,
Just wondering why you are short GU? Turned around today and went higher showing reverse SAR but not outside BB. Are you looking for a sharp reversal?
S.

Yes BarryPips, I found your post on the matter :smiley:

IMO, being that the Bolinger bands can act as moving average type indicator, it could act as a filter when using the logic that it’s safer to take trades when price is above or below the ma in relation to the trend, so in this case the price is the dot and ma is the outer bands.

I’m just not sold that the “20” days BB period is necessarily the number that works best :wink:

Further to my last post, I did a little more research on these two indicators and one website made a comment that:

[I]Since Bollinger Bands already take into account volatility and trend, a trader should not use indicators that duplicate this information[/I].

Both the PSAR and BB’s are trend indicators.

It further says that:

[I]Instead indicators that measure volume, momentum, sentiment, open interest are better suited companions for the Bollinger Bands[/I].

So while there has been good results for some regardless, and easily, then hey, why question a good thing, but I think it’s success in those cases is due mostly to the PSAR itself and not so much because the BB is “helping” it to be. But who really knows… :wink:

This is my theory:

The PSAR is the main indicator and we’re just filtering out the bad signals.
The 1st PSAR dot is based on the previous high or low. A lot of traders using whatever system watches this so it may constitute as a good support / resistance level. Some traders also use BB as support and resistance since it’s based on some Standard Deviation from MA. So for a long, if your PSAR dot is below the BB, then the probability of hitting that PSAR in a short time span is actually decreased (out of the volatility range). This lessens the probability of significant and instant fake outs. This does not guarantee a winning trade. But it will keep you in the position long enough to lessen your loss (compared to the original PSAR level) as the PSAR goes closer to the price as time goes by because of less volatility. I treat the BB not only as a technical filter but also a money management filter.

Being mainly a PSAR system, you better be careful in going against the daily trend or trading during consolidations as the PSAR + BB will generate more false signals. So it is up to the trader to decide if one needs more confirmation signals from other indicators or by intuition.

@IcyCloud
I’m based in Singapore as well.

You know guys I’m not sure what parabolic really means as to its mathematical properties but SAR means Stop & Reverse. What better indicator for entering a trade? I guess playing with the settings for backtesting or forward on a demo is good research but my small acct was down $180 a week ago and I have all but $20 back using this strategy as presented in the 1st post. I use ATR for SL & TP purposes only. For “newbies” looking in just give the suggested parameters a good 2-3 week test, I think you will like it and do well. I’m not trying to squelch trying different ideas but the original works just fine. d

Anyway, if you read Nicholas Taleb’s “Fooled By Randomness”… all this justification of technical systems using seemingly logical theories are all garbage and a useless endeavor (as what I did in my previous post). Is it just that we were lucky (Either in finding a trading system that works despite being illogical, or maybe in getting in a position at the right market environment)?

Agreed!..the part about the BB filtering out the bad trades, well it filters out just as many good trades too which sets me bottom lip a quiver when I see that :frowning: …Hit & miss in my opinion.

Also I read that Bollinger Bands can be regarded as one of the “Exotic” indicators, so if it’s being used for S&R levels & MA’s, then one might consider just drawing S&R levels, and adding a MA indicator instead until one is much more experienced with those concepts in general.

Hi dobro
In your post you mention using ATR for SL/TP
would that be a 14 period, also as G/U has an ATR on the 4h of 61
would you just set your stop just below/above this and then look at a TP just above/below

USD/CAD may signal a long in a few minutes. This is an Oanda chart which has 3hr rather than a 4hr - dobro stands by the 3hr, so will be interesting to see how it pans out.


blackdog: My ATR setting is 7 but I may change it to 8. I don’t want a long term analysis, just most recent ranges. If a strong trend is indicated I use the ATR as given; if weaker trend or some choppiness I deduct 10 maybe 15% from the ATR and use that number.

cowaboi: I don’t trade on Fri unless I spot a “Sure Thing” early in the morning - and that is very rare.

Everyone have a good weekend. d

I took the USD/CAD long earlier and closed just now for +70. Should have held longer if following IC’s rules, but common sense prevailed when I saw this was a counter daily trend move, plus it was a friday and didn’t really want to hold over the w/e.


Up about 750 pips on the ej and uj short using the original rules of this system.

Hi hoss
yes good call
I can see the short on the E/J but on my chart the U/J dot seems to be inside the BBs not outside

A/U outside dot on the 4h

I am using FXDD and I had two dots outside the bands on the UJ.


For the heck of it I picked up some usd/cad @ 0.9784 last week and used sar as a stop. I simply placed the hard stop when the sar moves in favor. I think it is up about 110 pips right now and the SAR stop is in profit @ 0.9835.


I don�t know much about the Bbands but it does appear when they get tight that volatility is constricting and a move is imminent. Look at how tight eur/usd bands are getting. Then again my theory could be way out in right field.