i’d go for the 2560. But i don’t normally trade the fiber.
Commercials are looking to hedge their risk in the currency market, so they are not that aggressive like the large specs. Large specs ride the trend in most cases, while the com positioning is good for predicting top and bottoms. Look for extreme commercial position (12M & 4Y), because it likely predicts that a long-term high or low is forming in the market.
Let’s assume a scenario where the coms had accumulated large buy positions during the downtrend of an asset, while the large specs have rided the trend to the downside. When we reached an extreme positioning and a bottom has formed, the large specs want to get out of their shorts, which means they buy the asset.
Guess who’s gonna sell to them? The coms that want to distribute their long positions and take profit as we move upwards. We as retail specs want to ride with the trend that has been established after the extreme positioning. Look for retracements to the downside and an intraday OTE to give us a better entry. Those retracements happen as the market is trying to fulfil the large orders. The large specs are not stupid, if they have to get out of their short position, they’ll try to get a more favourable price than buy (take profit) at a swing high.
I hope this was helpful to you.
Good luck.
ok im short cable at 1.5598,
OTE pattern from fridays high to yesterdays low at 62%,
SMT Divergence between fiber and cable, fiber failed to make a higher high,
we above central pivot
At a key level 1.5600.
the sweet spot on the OTE woud have been 1.5605, but we have already cleaned out the stops above yesterdays highs so i didon’t think we need to go much higher.
fingers crossed, i’m back on 2% risk
looks like i was wrong about the 1.5605 mark, price has now moved up there, giving the actual OTE sweet spot at 70% and more! i’m now less than 5pips from being stopped out, not sure why they pushed it so high
what does crumpy mean?
I’m in there short at 1.55992, thought about holding for the sweet spot, but liked the big fig…hopefully it holds. Bedtime and check back at NY. GL.
Matty
Ok i’ve been stopped out! ICT if you see this please let me know if there was anything i could have done different.
reducing risk to 1% and may try catch something in NYO or tomorrow
I’m still in it but SMT divergence between Fiber and Cable is now gone. Maybe we should use a hidden OTE for a better entry?
Matty
Okay, watching aint gonna help…off to bed.
I’m short GBP/USD at 1.5610, LO KZ, for:
- Big Fig & Natural Resistance
- SMT Div with Fiber
- Turtle Soup (5600+ stops)
- Judas Swing
- Pivot Sell Zone
Stop = 1.5640
Target 1 = 1.5570 - Support
Target 2 = 1.5450 - Support
i have not looked into this aspect properly yet…
but its important that you understand the position of the commericals.
firstly they are they are the big movers of the prices in currency…more so than fundamentals.
for example a japanese company may be selling 10 billion yen worth of cars to america.
this is a commercial transaction.
the people at the company say that if they get the current exchange rate of dollar yen for their cars…they can continue buying the materials to make the cars and continue paying their staff etc…etc…they are not interested in making profits on currency fluctuations…
but the problem is what happens if the exchange rate on dollar yen changes…it may put them in a better position to buy all their resources and pay their staff…or it may put them in a far worse position …in which they cannot buy all the resources and pay their staff.
so what they do is they hedge (they take a position in the market so that they are covered if the EXCHANGE RATE moves AGAINST THEM)…to basically nullify any fluctuations in the dollar yen on their order.
if the exchange rate moves in their favour…they will lose money on the hedge…but make money in the fact that the exchange rate has moved in their favour.
the buyer of the cars also has the reverse position…he is happy with the cost at the current exhcange rate that he is paying for the cars …and will also hedge in case the market moves against him.
these net shorts and net longs are recorded in the cot report.
so the the more trade the commercial japanese company has with america. the more yen the americans will have to buy in order to purchase the cars, and cover market fluctuations.
the more money that needs to be exhcanged gives an indication of economy and also of demand for the dollar or yen.
in fullfilling its orders.
so really its not a matter of that when the commercial traders are selling …that you should be buying…they are selling for a reason…trade.just because america has bought 10 billion cars from japan doesnt mean yen is a BUY.
so when looking at the cot …it is important to realise that you can pretty much forget about the commercials.
you must definitely forget about the retailors…
what you need to focus on is the large speculators…
this is key…
these are the guys that start trends …and so these are the guys you want to copy…so i suppose your right to a certain extent…anyway…its the big moves that count…and i just hope i have given you food for thought …
godda go the market is calling.
so for me its not a key ingredient in trading…as i am a swing trader …and the market swings all the time in short trends and longer trends…even in a downward trend there are swing highs and swing lows…
so cot report may be worth a quick browse on the day of its release to shed some light on potential major market changes.
but the information you need is probably available directly from the price action on your charts…
so keep investigating the cot…but keep a tighter eye on price and what it appears to be doing…
unless you are only trading major trends then maybe the report is crucial…anyway hope this helps.
thankd Matty, i didn’t see the hidden OTE.
Did you get in at the figure?
i could have waited for sweet sspot OTE at 1.5605, which would have kept me in because my stop was 25 pips.
yeah i can see the smt divergence is now gone…maybe thats why they were pushing it up so they could both clear out the stops from yesterdays highs.
… i really want to know from ICT if i was unlucky or if i missed something, i really thought it was a good trade, annoying when you’ve just gone back up to 2% a trade. Good lucky Matty!!!
nice one FXcro, much better entry than me, this could be the difference between me getting stopped out and you having a winning trade. I agree with the target of 1,5450, i think i posted about this target yesterday too. good luck mate!
the fiber still in the short position- tuesday is basically the loudest day…dont think its bullish…but its always possible.
GBP inflation report and public borrowing coming up… itchy to enter short before it’s released… wouldn’t it be great to have insider-friends to know exactly what will be released? 
edit1: even without an insider friend I decided to take the plunge and entered short at 1.5620 sl at 1.5655 but I will most likely have to punish myself later on when writing this trade in my journal (winner or loser) since I entered without OTE confirmation - one of my rules (and I don’t do hidden OTEs just yet as I didn’t study them enough yet…) AND I most likely felt it was time to enter a damn trade after being flat for more than 2 weeks now…which is BAD BAD BAD!
I did decide to enter the trade on 1% risk instead of 2% and I’ll move SL to BE a bit earlier than usual (closer to 20 pips instead of my usual 30…)
the way it looks right now I might be able to move to BE soon;)
edit 2: public borrowing release was not enough to move it… i guess they are waiting for the inflation report…
edit 3: note to self: I don’t need to be angry while watching the wrong pair moving… since SMT would have clearly indicated the fiber not willing to go higher and YET I decided to short the cable…
edit 4: SL to BE at +20 (since High impact news make me nervous hahaha)
edit 5: stopped at BE, no loss and some experience gained… see y’all at NYO;)
This unexpected high could be a sucker punch, GBP news events at 9:30 & 10:00. I suspect price will get driven down to collect all those stops from Asia high to yesterdays low
Ok,let me try this:
Large specs are trend followers and Comm are trend enders.Large specs are right on a trend but wrong on bottoms and tops.Commercials buy on a downtrend and sell on an uptrend.Why?Because they buy increasingly cheaper and sell increasingly more expensive.We need to look at Commercials at their extreme net long/short.When Commercials are at extreme net long/short a bottom/top COULD be just around the corner.Why I said “COULD”?Because:
School of Pipsology-“every market top or bottom is accompanied by a sentiment extreme, but not every sentiment extreme results in a market top or bottom.”
How`s that?Commercials are buyers on a downtrend.They buy what?They buy old shorts or they buy new longs…so we have 2 cases on an downtrend:
1.comm net short-comm buy old shorts(they are covering old shorts)=>their shorts decrease=>OI decrease
2. comm net long-comm buy new longs(they open new longs) =>their longs increase =>OI increase
- After this downtrend, when their shorts decreased,if comm will open new shorts(their OI increase) but the price remains in range,this results in a bearish signal and I`ll look for OTE sell signal.
- After this downtrend,when their longs increased,if comm will cover this longs(their OI decrease) but the price remains in range,this results in a bearish signal and I`ll look for OTE sell signal.
BOS=buy old short(comm are covering old shorts)
SN=sell new(comm open new shorts)
SOB=sell old buy(sell old longs,comm are covering old longs)
BN=buy new(comm open new longs)
I`ll put another 2 cases: comm net short/long on an uptrend.They sell here new shorts(OI increase) or sell old longs(OI decrease)
Sorry for my english !Critics and comments are very welcome!
Please read Larry Williams “Trade Stocks And Commodities With The Insiders - Secrets Of The Cot Report”
and watch Larry Williams - The Future Millionaire’s Trading Course part1-4
Only really decided to peak in now as all risk off the table for me… Aggresive action this morning!
Honestly kind of surprised to see most trading the cable, the fiber was the pair unable to make the higher high and therefore the weaker pair which as far as i remember means its the best one to short…
The divergence i was focusing on is still holding strong, look at the Friday highs on the the fiber, and compare to the same swing on the cable… Cable made the higher high and fiber was way off…
Took an early OTE fiber this morning, entry was a little crappy @ 2513, took a 20 pip SL which to be honest just hung on by about 3 pips - got lucky, need to really ensure that it shouldnt come this close in the future…
Took half off at 30 pips - 2483, lock BE and planning to hold for daily range… If NY entry looks decent i may add another 1% position on, but NY may well tag my inital trade out at BE due to my bad entry…
Anyway, see how it goes…
Goodluck everybody else :57:
SanJ You really are the star pupil, I noted the weaker sister comment on one of the market reviews but did not pick up on it until your comment here - to my cost i might add. another great trade by you 
Made a complete mess of my trading this morning, was short cable and booked profits (small profits!!) when i saw it retracing a small bit. Need to stop micro managing my trades and just let them play out. It also looks like SanJ is right. Fiber was the better option this morning given it was unable to make a higher high. On my hands til NYO
GLGT