I’m also trying to be wary of the Big OTE that Hat trick mentioned yesterday.
Hat trick did you go long yesterday at 1.5400? just wondered
Tycoon,
Could share a screen capture. I’m more visual of the OTE and reflexion
MT 
I was also eyeing the OTE at the 1.5480 today to go short - off the 1H chart… If the fiber played out in a correlated movement, it would have provided a bearish SMT also - and i would have looked for my other criteria to be met too…
Tbh, nothing real clear as of yet, looks like i may be done for the week… When we have days like this when PA just seems sloppy as hell is when im glad im trying to keep out of the intra-day garbage (no offence to anyone who took a trade :p)
Also aware of the OTE which the cable is currently working within, but personally, it goes against all my rules trying to buy into such a bearish market… Market structure and MF on the major daily and 4H remain all bearish - so any rallies in price ill be looking for short entries until we get a real change in sentiment…
:57:
I just went short at 1.5482. 25pip stop loss. At lot of reasons why. It does feel weird though because i feel like i’m trading against todays trend.
I’ll post my analysis later today because i’m at work now, fingers crossed.
Hmm, weren’t enough of my criteria met for me to jump in on that - plus SMT between the two says my better entry should have been in the Fiber…
Im looking at the 4H OTE on the cable which is the area of around 5507-5537…
Regardless, good luck bro !
I have also jumped in cable short at 1.5495. Stop is set at 10 pips. If we go hier I would prefer to re-enter At 1.5525. 4H OTE from yesterday’s high plus trinity level.
GLGT.
Sorry. 1.5525 is OTE from Wednesday’s high to yesterday’s low.
Was long cable at 1.5425 (long story - should not have been there) was ready to bail at 5450 but held out -.
I live on a land border between euro/gbp, very aware of that cross nuances, when I see a sudden move in cable the first thing I look to is the Eur/Gbp, this tells me whether the move is pound related or not.
Look at today’s sudden move up in cable on a 15m - 2 large bull candles from 11.15 gmt, now look at Eur/Gbp, 3 bear candles - the first one started 15mins earlier than cable - this told me the move was pound buying so I held fire, I had a 15mins heads up.
Also notice the pin bar in Eur/Gbp at 11.45, this had begun to form BEFORE cable had topped.
I do’nt trade Eur/Gbp but I always keep it on mt4 for use on the stf, can give a great heads up.
No, I am done for the week. Depending on what happens today and Monday I will be looking for a OTE on the 15m to 1hr charts to go long. If it doesn’t play out on Tuesday I’ll sit on my hands. I am hoping for a decent bounce from that 1.5400 level today and Monday and look for the retrace in the middle of next week.
Have a great weekend and rake in the pips!
Oooouch! that was a painful loss, got stopped out by 1pip! i wonder if it will continue lower.
Hi Peterma
This looks like a great strategy for heads up moves in GU and EU but when you look at the PA on GU EU and the EG cross, EG made a move down at 11.00 (gmt), GU makes a slight move down and EU makes a bigger move down = > so looks like EG is moving due to Euro selling initially (at 11.00). Then at 11.15 EG makes another down move EU creates a pin bar and GU makes a big move up - so you now know its GBP buying. But I’m struggling to see how it gives you a heads up as the moves take place at the same time? Hope I’m missing something here ?? Whatever - this is a timely reminder to keep an eye on the EG cross when either Fiber or Cable makes a sudden move.
Thanks for the info peterma.
I look at OTE differently not from previous swings made I do it via current completed swing pending correlations are correct and things in asian look setup for it.
I look for during the LO session and KZ for a judas swing to occur then I measure it with the fib and look for my OTE
I’ve got a break, so i thought i’d post my analysis and get some ideas on what I could have done to improve the trade.
Reasons for short on the cable at 1.5482
Kill Zone NYO
OTE from yesterdays high to low.
OTE lined up with a previously noted key level, 1.5480.
Divergence on the Stocastics (Type 2)
Divergence on the A/D.
Fractal Formed on daily chart with a 3 bar pattern when the 18 was below the 40 on the Moving Average.
SMT divergence with the Fiber.
Daily and 4hr market flow was down.
Above central pivot.
I would have taken the trade with only a few of those but i seemed to have so many line up that i thought it was a very likely winner, or at least take first profit and move to break even.
Criticisms that i can see.
We had just bounced off the 1.5400 which was a higher time frame OTE, as mentioned by Hat-trick
Stop could have been 30pips.
Should I have waited for the figure to enter maybe.
Was I just unlucky with my stop, price has now moved 25pips south of my entry which would have meant i could have taken half off and moved to break even. hmmmmmmm
here are some views on the charts and analysis that i was looking at.
first chart, A/D divergence and entered soon after we went oversold on williams % R, with the OTE.
Second chart shows the type 2 divergence, with the OTE and key level noted.
short term trading strategy in play, fractal formed.
SMT divergence between Cable and Fiber
I couldn’t save this chart but i think its pretty clear if you look at your charts
All constructive criticism welcome!!
Or Vote lol
1) Good analysis but Unlucky 2) Dumb Move
i was long euro…profits taken. 100 percent.
Well done for making a profit today Brink. Have you posted analysis on this trade previously? Was it a intraday scalp? Be good to here you’re analysis with entry and exit points.
Can we have your analysis with chart please?
Switch to 5 min chart to see better, cable stuck in a 20 pip range, pp giving support but lower highs and price drifting lower, hence my readiness to bail.
By 11.25 cable still not out of range but at the top of it’s london range now to bail from my cable long (since I’m actually bearish in the first place).
Before I do I’ll check fibre and EG.
I see that EG has made a determined push down - so to check is there pound buying or euro selling - check fiber.
Only one bear candle at 11.00, push down long since stopped - has to be GBP buying so hold on bailing - now watch EG
11.45/ 11.50 railway tracks - move on EG over, same tracks on cable - now I bail and happy (despite the fact that I had marked 1.5549 as target (July 6 high london)which I see has been hit )
This afternoon everything back in sync.
I have noticed that the EG cross more relevant in london mornings - my theory is that traders in US view the gbp and euro with the same risk level - hence the correlation, whereas European traders do’nt, hence you can get sharp moves without the correlation - only a theory.
Tbh bro, if a trade meets all your criteria tick boxes to go in, and it doesnt go your way, its just one of those unlucky trades… I’ll only ever say a trade is a ‘dumb move’ if im taking it and it really doesnt fit my criteria…
The only criticism i could really give in your trade is that the while the SMT you pointed out was clearly there - it indicates the Fiber was the weaker pair as it failed to make the higher high. Not saying there was a clear entry on that, as i still dont see one looking back and it wouldn’t have really worked in out… But generally, as were taught entries are better taken in the weaker of the pairs…
now i am short cable going for about 20 pips
based on candlesticks and price action only…charts are bare.
Thanks peterma for the further explanation - 5m chart makes it clearer. The way I use EG (although not as often as I should) is to look for S/R levels on EG to see where EU and GU might go. For example if we are coming down to a strong support level on EG I use that fact as an indicator on possible EU strength and / or GU weakness and visa versa.
Have a good weekend.
right that will do me…about 14 pips is another nice profit …mustnt be greedy
its like having an ATM in my office…
the terms candy and baby keep springing to mind.
he he.
if anyone did jump on this trade and are still in it .advice would be to get out at latest 1.2220.
im already out…but after there may be pusing your luck a bit…
or take most of profit there