I love doing these and then getting them all wrong, but you’ve got to have a target you want to be ready for.
That’s the EURUSD 15m chart, as I said, the daily timeframe looks bearish to me, we’ve had a Judas swing from yesterday’s resistance area during the Asian session, so if we are bearish, there is no need to go up there again, there is confluence at OTE area - OTE + resistance + Pivot+TT.
High or Low volume pinbars at that area on the 5m and 15m, will probably clinch it, but I will be keeping an eye on my Oscillator too, but not for divergence (because it don’t exist :D).
I think im gonna have to sway a little with Squidge with this one PPF… Not in terms of price predictions, but just general direction… I agree short term we are looking bearish, but i think the higher time frames at the moment are looking bullish…
Since the break of that purple line, market structure on the fiber has indicated a bullish structure… This to me was then confirmed when the move down was pushed higher once price reached its OTE - the blue area shown above…
Since then, longer term price has been printing higher highs, and higher lows again showing bullish market structure. Therefore any move from price to the down side i would consider it a longer term Judas to allow me to get back in sync with the higher time frame…
So the two wider OTE’s im looking at now are drawn from these swings and indicated by the blue areas:
These should be longer term areas where i would expect a bounce to get in long… I thought we could see that yesterday in a smaller OTE but think may have jumped in too early and closed me position at more or less BE… Think we need a further retracement down before hopefully seeing some upside movement…
Oh and the 1.2223 level - more or less the 1.2220 institutional level i would say is definately a level i would be looking for some sort of reaction in price - be it a bounce or a break through and then retest as resistence on its way down…
Guess they arent done with the longs lol i really was thinking short this week. anyway entered long at 1.5645 and i have another long entry sitting at 1.564 not sure if itll be filled tho. Confluences are judas swing, killzone, reflection entry, turtle soup, and a bullish stochastic divergence on a 1H chart, also around a previous support and resistance level 1.5640, also 4H market flow has been bullish, pivot by zone. Also been looking into VSA and there was a lot of buying into that initial down bar on a 15 min chart and the next bar was an up bar with little volume.
ICT thank you man you really got to me from that first post in your old thread to every video you’ve made it’s like you’re talking right to me. I’m not out of the trade yet so this may be premature lol. But you got me disciplined, focused, and confident. Not erratic(like I was) and I didn’t know what I was doing just kind of feeling and guessing now I have a plan and it includes risk management lol and I can anticipate instead of react. Thanks for the keys to that door, it’s like you gave me a seed to a money tree: D and I’m growing it lol. After 2 months of your voice almost nonstop I think I’ve advanced. I feel like I’ve made a turning point or real advancement in my trading tonight. Not just in my analysis but in my attitude I was calm. And it hasn’t just been tonight I really stay in control of my emotions even when a trade goes against me I understand that there’ll be others and that losses happen.
In a couple of years I’d really like to have drinks and just shake your hand Michael.
I expect you appreciate the following, but for the benefits of newbies, it’s not about being wrong or right, it’s a about having a potential target area, the behaviour you expect to see when you get there, having a trading plan and executing it.
Its still completely possible, but i try to think of these levels as reaction levels instead of support and resistance. Support i think too easily makes people presume it will stop price at that level and move the opposite direction. But how i see it, its a level where i expect price to react to, and that could also mean breaking through the ‘support’ and retesting it as resistance before continuing lower… But as you said, time will tell…
I’m in the same trade Iyajenkei got in at 1.5648 cable be interesting to see if it bust through the previous highs from earlier in the week i’m up 50 pips so far gonna take some profits and let the rest run. I also have been following ICT for the last few months and i too have really improved out of sight in that time.
Thanks again Michael maybe we can all have an ICT reunion once a year at a predetermined destination that would be awesome!! In the mean time i will keep listening to your voice michael even though it sometimes has a tendency to put me to sleep… not making fun of your voice but i think you would make a good sleep hypnosist or maybe i should just stop watching your video’s late at night haha!
So I’m looking at the move that happened today on both Fiber and Cable, and I’m trying to see if I should have seen this coming. At the moment I just can see anything other then SMT divergence (Cable USDx)
The Cable has been held up the last 3 days, while the Fiber has gone down, I see this as accumulation of the Cable. I drew a fib from the TT fair market value (1.5623) to the high on 8/14. The gave me an OTE of 1.5650, which also happens to be a stop raid area, as well as mid fig, S1, prior S/R, & weekly CPP. I’m not exactly sure if my fib was correct, but as ICT recently said, play with the fib and see if there were reactions at points along it, which there were. A better fib placement was probably the 1.56 level, but on Monday when I drew the fib and marked my spot, it was much more clean than after the spike up on Tuesday
There looked to be a turtle soup raid on stops @ LO below 1.5660 on the Cable, the Daily S2 Pivot came into play as support on my charts. Also appeared to be a short term, double hit, type-2 divergence on the Stoch (one from yesterday hourly and one today 15min). ICT might dislike me for saying this but there was trendline support from a rising trendline starting the 2 Aug, drawing a fib from the retest of that support line on the 10 Aug to the high on the 14th would’ve highlighted the 62% where price moved up from today.
Needed to squint to see a 200% for today’s target projection from yesterday and even then it was bunched in tightly. Does a 62% reflection pattern from yesterday qualify or does it need to be in the sweetspot (70.2%)…?
Very interesting how the daily chart was looking primed for a fractal high on both cable and fiber, and yet price flew upwards today I think that’s where you’ve gotta look “deeper” to understand where price is going… i.e. Yields on treasuries, higher TF market structure and COT Also USDX hitting a higher TF OTE of course! Combine that with some divergence between EU and GU, hit the pivot buy zone and Bob’s your uncle!
I think that’s where you’ve gotta look “deeper” to understand where price is going… i.e. Yields on treasuries, higher TF market structure and COT 
