Didn’t think we would hit it today, was hoping for feedback before we did, but I’m going short at 1.2488, I know its short term counter trend so wont risk more that 15 pips…
Finally we bust through previous months highs and touch the 1.5800 level. I’m hoping seasonal tendencies stay true and it kicks of a good month bullish in september!
Only word of advice I’d give, if your aren’t riding that moving train upwards, id get the hell out of its way!.. Too many times ive been burned trying to catch tops and bottoms… Id wait for some confirmation of the bears taking over before trying to short this… Although we are in a wider daily OTE area, there is nothing that says it has to stop and bounce here… Id atleast wait for the power of 3 on the daily before looking for a short…
Again - dont take my word as the be all and end all…
One thing i will advise though is to use the forum as more of a help when you want to learn where you went wrong - to see the other side of the coin which you may be blinded too…
Otherwise do your own analysis and formulate your own opinion. Too often then not little comments expressed in the forum can sway your opinion - its why i choose to follow but stay out more now…
If you feel you have the analysis behind it, go for it, then share your success or mistakes later, the open postings will help you learn
This is what my chart basically looked like when I woke up at 11 am. I took the screenshot at 12:20 PM or so. I plotted the fibs and entry zones at midnight. Kill zones are green.
Now if I were actually awake for LO, I wonder if I would’ve thought that initial swing up to be a Judas? Price bounced pretty convincingly off of R1, but then moved into the short-term OTE and took off.
I wouldn’t have traded NYO or LC.
Not sure I would’ve traded LO either.
Expansion days like this always throw me off, which stinks because they are the most profitable days.
im looking for a raid on stops at 1.5885 its a previous S&R also a reflection entry from the most recent 4H swing and real close to the 62% retracement to get short from that big swing. just some food for thought. but im long until then :D. hopefully tomorrow/tonight gives me my trade. good luck guys.
posted Aug 16 when price was at 2350
I am learning to anticipate where price is trying to reach to using ICT’s teachings - the big problem is staying focused on that and not being swayed by press stories of impending break up of the euro - read such a story this morning and immediatly became bearish - forgot all I had learned, forgot my last post, discipline out the window and I go short at 1.2386 simply because it was Tuesday (thought high of week, bearish) and expected bounce off short term resistance.
I am learning the difference between gambling (trading with a hunch) and disciplined trading - grrrr.
Yeah, ive learnt not to base trade decisions on forum conversations after 8yrs of trading shares, took me a while and some big losses to learn that one…
My trades are very small at the moment, so am willing to take a few more risks, still waiting for the retest, although not sure it will happen today… Will post what happens… If anything!
Out of curiosity, why would you presume the initial move up is a Judas? The way were taught to know if a move is a suspect judas is to confirm with SMT/USDx divergence - was there any at the time to support this?
HTF direction is primarily bullish, im not saying todays range expansion was expected, but a move to the upside to take out the clean pocket of stops was long coming…
No problem… But yeah defo worth noting, SMT and USDx divergences are golden for picking out the weaker / stronger pair and identifying whether a move is a real move or a sucker Judas play…
Something ICT said in his new York session video around the 46 min mark. Your tools will keep you out of trades. Thats what happened last night :-D. I’m feeling really confident lol.
Hey ICT, sorry for the late response. As far as VSA working or not working with your concepts, I don’t see why not.
Figuring where price will go is like solving a mystery. The more information you have the better. Sometimes many things fit together like a puzzle, so the likely hood of particular move is high. It would be interesting to have a discussion about how it would work together, but since we don’t really know each others method, it would be kinda hard lol. I would assume some people around here are already combining the two.
