You are taking that example as general, what OI means is that there is interest in the current move, if the market is bullish and OI is increasing the move will be sustained, conversely if the market is bearish and OI is increasing it will continue bearish.
I have 1.2760 marked on my chart for a while now, so that would line up with your 1.2750 level, give or take. As for today, I was eyeing up the 1.2930 (as I had this level pre-marked and it also coincides with the OTE on the 1H and 4H charts of the newest swing), but Iām not so sure weāll hit that high. Good test for the patience
As for the Cable, thinking of shorting from the 1.6030 level for a scalp (but i probably wont as i made my weekly 30 pip goal yesterday), but as for the longer term, Iād like to see a pullback to 1.6080 before getting in for another short, or even 1.6150ā¦
I entered G/U @ 1.60200 short and E/U @ 1.28870 short and now am at work and so at the mercy of the market - no chance to move stop or close order until about 5 hrs from now.
This is a interesting topic that i have been trying to understand. Why is there open interest? If there is buying itās long. If there is shorting itās short. I still dont understand what open interest means.
Does it mean the difference between short and long positions because someone is buying the opposite of your direction?Is this contracts that arent open yet?
As I understand it open interest is relative to the total positions open. So it can be tricky to interpret. For instance if today 100 long positions and 50 short positions are openā¦open interest would be 150. If tomorrow there are 100 long positions open and 100 short positions open ā¦ open interest would go up to 200. If the day after all long positions are closed and only 100 short positions remain open ā¦ open interest drops down to 100.
So as I understand it you cannot do much with open interest alone, one would need to identify why open interest has incresed/decreased. Take note of the change in long and short positions and also notice what PA is doing in the meantime.
Re. the OI discussion I use the position of commercial traders as itās a bit easier to understand and therefore to take guidance from. My understanding is that if commercials are extremely net short or long we might expect a mirrored reversal in the futures in question. For example if commercials are looking āextremelyā short (i.e. versus their position over the previous 12 months lets say) then we might expect a fall in the currency they are short. If you look at the cot report for the British Pound right now youāll see comms are extremely short positioned.
My own understanding is:
OI is comprised of longs and shorts, you donāt have to compute that again, as there is a short for every long and vice versa .
An increase confirms the prevailing trend, a decrease warns of its deceleration .
Havenāt been here for a while. Iāve changed my ways quite a bit over time and now trade using a combination of long term and intraday trading. I combine concepts of ICT (who I thank for learning everything I did) and VSA (which I learned on my own). In regards to CoT, I have been short GBP/USD for 2 weeks now and am constantly being shown just how powerful this report is. If you want to get seriosu with it, I highly recommend you read: Larry Williams - Trading with the Insiders (Secrets of the CoT report) as recommended by ICT. (That book is gold!). Also, the following link that I will post is an interesting read and very useful for doing back testing in CoT data (it basically letās you chart CoT reports in MT4): Meta COT Project - New Horizons for CFTC Report Analysis in MetaTrader 4 - MQL4 Articles
Now, I still have much to learn and also Iām recovering from a large drawdown since I started on my live account. Basically one trade went wrong when I didnāt place an SL (woke up at 4am to trade London open and was half-asleep). The next day I took a 12% hit. Got swayed from trading ICT methods and got in a drawdown of 20%, now Iām back up -12%. Trading isnāt easy but I feel Iām much more of a complete trader now and I can āpredictā what will happen in the coming weeks.
So a big thx to ICT of course and I hope I can give back to the community that has helped me so far and God permitting be back in the green soon. Ciao.
Ok here is me trying to apply only what Michael teaches to EURUSD. Iāll go over each time frame I looked at explaining what I saw. I have not deleted my S/R lines from all time frames so sorry for the mess on the higher ones. Feedback is always welcome! Although I am just focusing still on what is in the lessons and nothing else.
Price is still very high. It has reacted at a previous high and appear to be moving down to the resistance of the large range turned support would be my guess. My CCIās are currently over sold however market flow appears down so it not really an indication of anything.
Market structure has broken down. So a fibb has been drawn on the move downwards. I will await price to come up to the OTE (and previous S/R) then look on smaller time frames for a break downwards to enter short.
Price was also at the 161 extension which was in confluence with a previous low in september. Price was bellow the monthly pivot and hovering around the monthly mid pivot. CCI was also over sold.
I took these confluences to mean that it was a possible area for a retracement possibly up to the OTE I am anticipating.
Hourly Chart:
Price hit the second weekly support pivot point. Another confluence to look for a buy counter trend.
15m Chart:
On this chart I was looking for significant breaks to market structure in favour of the move upwards that I believed there were multiple confluences for on higher time frames.
At the time there was a range developing through out the asian range. I marked this with the yellow trend lines.
Price broke up in London open which to me was something that looked exactly like what we have been taught in regards to the fractal nature of forex and market structure breaks.
On the five minute a fibb is drawn on the move upwards that broke the market structure. A trade is then entered at OTE. This trade is counter trend so its a scalp! I set 66% profit at 100% retracement and left the rest for the 4 hour OTE I mentioned earlier. Just in case!
Price reacted at the 127 and 161 extensions which is pretty cool.
Edits:
Also you can see the smaller OTEās on that tiny move upwards all of which would have worked to jump into the trade. Honestly that last video on the fractal nature of forex was very cool.
Yesterdays move down has the OTE zone (61-79) at the 127/161 levels from the move up. In hindsight that would of been a good exit point. Also again pretty cool how the levels match up.
I think for the most part unless your analysis correlates with someone your going to have a hard time finding accurate critics. Iām tired now Iāll look later.
I notice that Cable has twice bounced off of the weekly trinity 161.8 extension. Could this be the first sign of the long resumption? This area is also the ote when taken from last months lo to hi. Food for thought? Now looking for a HTF fractal low to turn Tuesdayās fractal low into an interā.
Had to wait a bit longer, but today at LO the trade was triggered.
There was SMT divergence between EU and GU, entered at 1.2850 institutional level and just got out because we are at the 79% rectracment (1.2930) of the swing from the 8th oct to the low of today.
Bagged a nice 80 pips.