Good morning, this is a tough call for me.
Fibre took out some stops last night. So are we going higher. But for some reason i think we are in a bearish situation.
I think we broke market structure with the stop raid. .2830 is a short area i think.
Good luck everyone.
Believe it or not I think break even after a year - is fantastic -
there are a couple things I think - -
1 - you will simply gain more by keeping at it - -experience is a huge key
2 - one of the latest videos - showing the fractals - and market structure - I am taking this one to heart and actually
mapping only the daily and 4hr charts - every time there is a (I label 1,2,3 for daily and 4,5,6 for 4hr chart) market structure break -
EVERY time - then measure the 65-80% fib retrace of that point if and when price gets there- what happens (almost always)
I guess I say this cause just last night - I had marked a 65-80% level for another short - and price got to that point -but was WRONG -
I looked at maybe WHY - - well - it just so happened there was a fractal low - - where market structure did break for long entries- - so my bias SHOULD have been long
Sorry for the basic question - but I donât know - so I need to ask -
What do you and or what does ICT teach as the fair value range?
I assume something like in the case of trinity the 0 to r1 and s1
or
If fibo speaking between -50 and +50 fibs???
or
If price is sliding down - some sort of channel - ?
is/was there a video on fair value?
Thanks
See post #5467
Thanks
Thanks TommyL
:60::60:
Have same problem as Woolo has. The only difference is Iâm paying real money for learninig. lost significant amount for doing what I shouldnât do. Missing good discussion on current situation and next steps using ICT tools. Also would appritiate sharing by constant profitable follovers of ICT their views on whatâs going on and next steps before LO, NYO and LC.
all the best to all,
Beginer.
Hi PT. I like your comment, but I want to make sure that I am understanding what youâre saying. I think youâre saying that when there is a swing on the 1D or 4H, that exceeds the previous swing that was going in the same direction, we expect an OTE to occur (continuing in the direction of these swings.) Is this right? Could I ask which pair you mean? I think youâre talking about the Fiber 4h where structure was broken to the upside around 1.2830, and then retraced down approximately 67-70%, before banging up for like 100 pips. Is that correct?
I have been only studying Forex trading for almost three weeks now. Most of that time has been spent reading and watching ICT videos. Frustration has set in that I am understanding the material well enough but failing to make that knowledge useful in actual demo or real trading.
It made me stop and question if I was spending my time wisely with ICTâs material. Almost everything he has talked about I see is in sync with other reputable sources of Forex knowledge, so I am relieved that I havenât been wasting my time.
One of ICTâs most recent videos helped me understand how I should be approaching his material. ICT made it clear that doing large number of trades a week was not his goal or the point of his material on Forex trading. ICTâs techniques are focused not on maximizing profit, but maximizing effort versus reward.
This is all my opinion and donât want to put words in his mouth, but ICTâs material isnât really meant to be something that is âbetterâ than other Forex trading systems. It is meant to be a long term goal of whatever Forex trading system one develops for oneself. Large scale market understanding that will allow a Forex trader to maximize their time and not necessarily profits. I feel that ICTâs main point of this huge amount of material is to show people how one can eventually get to they point in their Forex market knowledge where one put only a small amount of time into their trading and have a huge reward for that effort instead of sitting glued to the screen every day making large numbers of trades.
Studying smaller scale Forex trading techniques now is my primary focus with ICT still being a large part of my Forex studies. I am now treating ICTâs material as a long term goal and no longer as the âbest systemâ to study. ICTâs techniques really require one to be 100 percent solid across a wide range of Forex concepts or they arenât going to be effective. And that is going to take a long time to get to that point.
ICT* bro, ICT⌠
Thank you. Fixed.
This is in no way intended to be offensive or directed towards anyoneâŚ
Whatâs with this entitlement complex, trading is difficult, effort and time spent spent doesnât automatically mean the market will reward you with success and riches.
Give the market respect and by that I mean patience, discipline and an open mind that the market can and will do anything. It is up to you as a trader accept, adapt and trade to the ever changing conditions. It doesnât owe you anything just because youâve spent x amount of: time, energy, lost money, sweat and tears.
This is really interesting, and Iâm sure others have noticed this and mentioned it. I just noticed and thought Iâd point it out. I think a some are seeing that the latest stuff on market structure helps to tie things together. I built a historical 4h chart of the Fiber and ran a fib from a May 2011 high of 1.49, to one of the ITL at July 12 2011, 1.3840. Now look at the extensions 127% 162%, 206%. Even as recently as eight days ago, we see incredible support and resistance, from these fib levels that are well over a year old. Some of this is due to the fact that fib levels and s/r work, which is why we consider them to be tools. But the fact that this fib (and iâm sure other significant historic ones) is still providing s/r seems really wild
Sorry if someone pointed this out already, I think itâs pretty interesting. I have to look at more older fibs
Great tweet today from ICT on market structure & ote on the USDX - as they say â a picture can paint a thousand wordsâ.
Woolo, I have had the same problem with OTE vs Reflection - decide itâs going to be ote and bet your bottom dollar itâs reflection.
One tool I have introduced and still testing is the usdx triad divergence involving the US Bonds and fibre, so far 4 out of 4 correct.
It reduces the number of entries but I hope to get better at spotting the divergences quicker.
the 4 out of 4 does not include one happening this morning - note that USDX made a significant higher high than yesterday, bonds were not interested - and had actually turned before USDX - I take this a judas rally on the USDX with no legs for a reflection so OTE is on (high of Nov 16 to low of 19th or 20th).
Just a thought 
Thanks for the feedback everyone!
It is truly appreciated. I like the method your using hopiplaka, I can see everything you see. I noted the same market structure break and using the fractal breaks/ranges on the 4h charts almost exactly as perchtird describes and with reference to COT, OI, USDX structure, interest rates and commodities on the higher timeframes concluded that this recent move up may just be a retracement higher in a longer term downward trend (October-Novemember leg).
No matter what approach I am using though I am still wrong half the time, or more often than not I will make a bad entry. For example yesterday I thought that the EURUSD had completed the retracement as price had reached a resistance level marked on the 4h chart supported with a whole number and a 61% OTE from a 4H move, so then during the asian range price broke bellow the previous days entire range. Which signalled the reversal for me. The 4h fractals were broken down and the bottoms of the previous days 15m market structure were also broken. I got in the market at 10:00 GMT at the 61% retracement. This trade was a loss as price then continued up and broke out the highs.
This pretty much sums up my average days trading. Iâve done the analysis and reached a conclusion but my entry is wrong half the time. Iâve made some really good trades taking massive moves from 4h highs to lows. But my entries are wrong so often that it cancels out my gains.
Part of the reason I will never give up is I am quite accurate with calling longer term highs and lows. All due to the material here I know roughly where and when they will be but not to a degree of accuracy to actually trade those time frames. Iâm off by a good 100 pips of so each time but I predict the moves correctly more often than not now. I just cannot enter the trades without loosing on the smaller time frames.
My entry anticipation/analysis sucks lol
In the fractal analysis video on the training series ICT said that the last video is going to cover how to actually get into trades during the individual sessions. Iâm really looking forward to that because that is what is killing my profits.
woolo,
Sounds like you are doing very well considering how many years ICT has been learning and developing his skills. And compared to the huge percentage of people donât even bother to learn the basics of Forex trading and blow their accounts within a few days of weeks and give up.
Pardon me for giving advice and only having a few weeks of Forex training, but it seems like you just need to supplement your large scale ICT style trading with more short term local price action style trading where many people make a very good number of pips a week. And as you continue to sharpen your large scale ICT style trading accuracy draw down smaller scale trading.
You say the recent move up is the retracement of the october-november swing.
Have a look at the following picture. I have marked several orange lines from several swing points.
Also, Iâve included 2 fib extensions both from the swing low of last week, and yesterday.
Now, because market structure was broken, you would look for longs until the retracement is complete.
If playing the weekly range, and the low was formed yesterday LO, where do you think price will try to reach to.
At the moment the weekly range is 130 pips, on average itâs 200 pips lately.
This putâs us at the 1.2920-1.2940 region. Todays top ADR is 1.2928
If looking at this picture and you know MS is up, would you still look for shorts, or are you anticipating a judas swing down to get in on the bull trend.
You see, a nice OTE in LO, out of asian range and back in.
First TP was the orange line in the picture. Would have netted you 35 pips
Thatâs 140 pips for the weekly range, I think weâre done for the week given thatâs Thanksgiving
Excellent stuff good sir! 
Thanks!
A ideal scenario for me would be a retracement to the 1.2780 area (possible weekly low on monday? ) and than all the way up to the âFinal take profitâ extension of the first swing that broke market structure (i.e. 1.2980 region), which is also an area of interest (see orange lines, the OTE from october to november as mentioned by Woolo)
