Not only is that the end of the weekly range but on GBPUSD we’ve hit a resistance and have a top SMT divergence between the highs of London and NY Open. So a possible move down on GBPUSD and so the high for the week being today is pretty likely.
I did not see the OTE on GBPUSD that came about in NYO because I was watching EURUSD with keen eyes.
Also what time period are you guys using as London open I’m using 7:00 to 9:00 GMT so I entered a little earlier. The 7:00 to 9:00 I got from one of the old PTC videos from 2011.
Hi Pete (just a guess?) - what time frame are you using for the bonds to spot USDx divergence and are you getting a constant live feed? I use Bloomberg and Barcharts but have to keep updating to get latest data. Guess I could buy it.
I use 15min all round for quick view of day’s action, the divergences are clear on 1 hr also, did’nt post it last night but noticed another USDX div with bonds as I was posting, this showed bonds continuing lower, making a lower low yesterday aftrenoon whereas USDX had stalled, I wrote on my USDX chart - ‘has to fall to here to catch up with bonds’ - sure enough that’s exactly what happened this morning.
I suspect, like many of ICT’s tools this is powerfull though it takes practice to get to spot the divs - the downside is getting the feeds - I use charts with ETX live a/c for bonds and usdx - their charts are quite good for short term futures -but no volume or oi etc. unlike barchart ( I use those for longer term view).
If you find a spreadbetting co that have good charts it can be cheaper to open a ‘dormant’ live a/c than paying a monthly fee.
I was having a think about stop hunts, judas swings and turtle soups. I struggled to fully comprehend them from the videos and so I’ve tried to explain them to myself a little more. It’s purely hypothetical and really just random musings I had looking at charts and trying to think of reasons behind what I was seeing. But none the less it’s helped me get my head around some of it and what exactly to look out for so I figured I’d share for fun. Let me know if its complete and utter nonsense.
Anyway i’ll copy and paste from my trade journals “Random thoughts and explanations” section lol.
Stop Hunt Hypothesis:
For the explanation I will use examples of stops placed after buys. Price has been moving upwards and there is a clear low where stops would reasonably be placed.
When buys are stopped out this means that the buying positions are closed which is the same as selling. These stops would in this hypothesis create downwards “momentum” proportional to the buying pressure following that point. How much exactly is unknown.
So as stops are taken out you could expect a small move down beyond that nest of stops.
Evidence of buys:
If true then when price reaches a position where stops would be triggered but fails to react and push downwards further this could hint at money being put into the market with buys. Preventing the sell from the closed buys at the stops from pushing price downwards. This could be seen at these levels with candle wicks entering stop zones then the candle heading back up.
Chain reactions:
It’s possible that if there are multiple lows near to each other which all hold stops that price could be pushed lower and lower knocking out the nested stops simply from the downward momentum caused by the stop’s being triggered which would push price further and further downwards triggering the next nest of stops and so on. Until there is an area with no further stops in reach.
Further Reasoning:
Professional traders all use stops. Some leave them at break even others bring them further up as price moves. So they shift their stop up with each higher low.
Why does this matter? The lows nearest to price would logically have the most stops resting under them due to traders that entered there and those that moved their stops higher combined. This means that as price breaks these stops then they release more selling pressure than those further away.
Judas and Turtles:
As price has broken down triggering the buy stops selling the pair and the end of the chain reaction is reached or simply no other stops are near; then this is a logical point for professionals to buy as price has been brought lower through stops being triggered rather than an actual change in professional traders position bias. So as the trend resumes its direction they can hop on the move with a decent entry having bought low.
Now I was watching the picture you posted: doesn’t get the market structure broken on the downside, suggesting perhaps to look for an OTE in the expectation of lower prices? Just like, for instance, in the screenshot ICT tweeted on Nov 21 about USDX h1? I don’t get the difference: would you mind explaining?
perfectly unlucky week for me. missed entries by less than a pip, got stopped out by less than a pip, didn’t reach my tp by less than a pip (sorry if i’m annyoing you with this, just wanted to share it with someone and get it off my chest) and yesterday i couldn’t trade because of work, would have gotten perfect entries on fiber and cable, with all TP’s hit. now i’m pretty much at 0% gain/loss this week. could well have been +8%. even if i did not make that profit, i know that i’m really really close to my final goal. everything just seems to come together and finally after almost 2 years of forex trading and learning i feel like i can do it and make it as a trader. i had so many ups and down like everyone in this business. there were so many times when i had a bad run, then i changed something and had a (lucky) good run and made some profits for a couple days or max 2 weeks. then i thought “hey, i got it now”, but i had no F*****g clue. i’m glad i was like that, because from that experiences i learned to be calm and not too enthusiastic about some good trades because another “bad run” was always around the corner. this time, however, it feels so different from the other times. i think it’s mostly because of so much better and for me more suitable risk management. i always had risk management, but not as good and as fitting as it is now. investing only around 10 to 15 pips (for a total of less than 1% risk) for most of the times three targets at 20, 40 and 70 pips or so (really depends on some factors, so this is just an average), and setting position to break even after the first 20 pips. even after this week, where the market was totally making fun of me and mocking me i did not lose anything. and even if i did, it would not have been more than 1%. i feel like the stuff i incorporated and tweaked in my trading over the last 3 months or so led to… how do i say it… like everything important and everything of value that i’ve learned (which is 90% ICT stuff) over the years by reading, trading, failing… just everything is melting together and forming a big new piece. ICT added some material but also the heat for the melting process. so once againg, for the 100th time: THANK YOU!
You know, in babypips school there is a few words like this…
Make pips
Keep pips
Repeat it.
I was looking back for last 8 months in my trading and find that I can make pip but can not keep it. Due to our ignorance/understanding the market, again we give those pip to the market. So I asked myself which trades made my pips and which took away? And find a very true answer. Those were with HTF made pips. And for HTF I had to wait for a specific trade setup. On the other hand those were impatiently traded turned in to the loss. For example look in to the last week Fiber (see the chart).
We need some strict rules and more import to follow those strictly to be successful. Akeakamai said well, “missing by a pip or two is like, just a few pips away to be perfect”. I managed those sparing the spread during the limit order.
TopFroxx, I think it’s only a few days more to see the light, you are progressing right way. Well done, you are doing good.
I found this thread a couple of days ago and watched some videos.
They are awesome. Very informative and these videos are far better than anything else out there.
Michael must have spent hours and hours to make these vidoes for us. Thank you so much. I really appreciate it.
I am excited to learn from you and with other members here. When I competed to watch all videos, I will join you guys. I may have lots of questions, though.
See where we were today.
