I’m just assuming here… but all the levels where I was looking for shorts (1.59,1.5930) were too close to fair value for my taste… and with the lot sizes ICT is juggling with I would be even more reluctant to enter short before we have reached sell zone on the trinity (If I remember correctly, he stated the same thing on a past video)… not sure if that was the exact reason why he stayed out, but could be a reason nevertheless;) hope that helps?
I’m currently in a bit of a loosing streak (is this the correct way to say/write that in english?;))
so every time I stay flat currently, is actually in my demo-account’s favor at least until I get my mind straight again…
at london open, if there’s a swing down followed by a swing up, how u know which one is judas?? i asked this question because of the latest video at livestream and the one at youtube. the latest video at youtube, michael says sell the judas rally, but before this was a swing down below asian low. but in the youtube video, ,michael looks for a buy in fibre at a swing down at london open. which before this was a swing up that breach asian high.
today fibre and cable is just like a repeat of yesterday,bullish, but then michael has a sell template??
Thanks if anyone can explain to me the two videos…
Just gonna say this. You are looking for same pattern to happen with just one distinctive feature - the judas swing. This WON’T HAPPEN EVERY DAY! Just like any other move in any other pair won’t repeat itself the exact same way. You have to look for more confirmation using other tools, as well as looking where price can go and why… And the last part is the hardest - determing where price will go. Judas is just a way to enter the move before it happened, it allows you with risking very little catch big moves, but it DOESN’T tell you where price will go… Its not like if judas swing is low then it ALWAYS will go high.
As new trader you have to understand more that just judas.
I had the same issue on my fiber trade today - I was too devoted to the 1.3150 level for a short and paid the price. Personally I think that if you look at where price broke down to on Monday, it makes a lot of sense that there would be a fairly strong upwards move from that point, as it lines up with a significant psychological level (on fiber at least), this being 1.3000. Looking at yesterday’s daily candle, it actually doesn’t make all that much sense for today to be a significant sell day directly after such a powerful upwards move. Last but not least, just going on Oanda’s view of market sentiment, it looks like almost 70% of traders are short on the cable - all the more reason to push it higher and higher and higher and higher and higher and higher…
Remember like PipJoker has said, a Judas Swing doesn’t happen every day. You need to know where price is going based on the higher timeframes. If you are looking to sell, then it’s easy to wait for a Judas swing up above the asian range and then selling it at an appropriate resistance level. If you are going to sell but it goes below the asian range, obviously your best option is to stay out of the trade, perhaps getting in later at NYO. ICT mentioned that he is looking for price to break below 1.30 on fiber and also lower on cable. Thus he is waiting for price to climb high enough to form a nice intermediate term high from which to sell - that’s what today was looking like. Whether it plays out, we can only guess
On that note - anyone think cable looks like it’s turtle souping that R2 level?
This is what I am kinda thinking as well. We’ll see what the rest of the day brings and then if everything plays out. Can also see type 2 divergence on the daily of both Fiber and Cable
I shorted fiber too as most of u at 1.3146 in LO. My stop was 1.31740 and on my broker feed the high of the day is 1.31732 and the standard spread is 0.8, so not sure how but got lucky today, the broker spared me, lol
when got back to charts before NYO, price was just below my entry and seeing the PA, I closed for +9 pips profit… phew!
still got short Cable on demo from 5951, might leave it on… I think we’ll end the week lower, but obviously ‘‘they’’ still building a positions, plus a consolidation day was well overdue…
the only thing that worries me re: bearish bias is the swing lows that will form on daily after the close today on both pairs…
I was so nearly stopped out on the fiber today as price got within 3 pips of my stop. I closed my trade at +16pips as there seemed to be not a lot left in the battery past 18:00GMT. Now I’m looking forward to tomorrows LO/NYO to see what opportunities may be presented to us
I am stalking the 5950 and 3150 level for this week to get short…
Obviously we have hit these levels today, waiting for LO to get an entry for a short at the high of the day.
I did all my analysis on the Daily Charts and they are telling me we are going to have lower prices.
Scoping out SMT and USDX Divergence during or before this trade to get conformation.
This all sounds so familar and looks just like the setup from last night, Pretty much Identical, so with my luck price will shot up another cagillion pips leaving me in the dust. I guess by doing this and looking at price everyday I am suppost to become familar with the setups…As of right now I can’t even tell if I’m trading forex or stocks or baseball cards…I guess if I keep doing this and watching videos (will be my 5th time watching all videos) everything is suppost to make sense.
These buses are a lot harder to get on then I thought, there seems to be this guy standing in the door way every time I try to jump on and takes my money then punches me square in the face, I know I need on this bus so I will just keep trying, just sucks when he keeps dressing up like a different person everyday…One of these days I will get him or her back…
Once I get my entry I will take screenshot and more detail.
haha yes i know exactly what you feel;)
but I think eventually we will all get it and the london express will be less of a beating and more like a japanese train (and the guys with the white gloves will make sure we all make it on the train by pushing and shoving us in there;))
I really struggle to achieve an One shot One kill trade which is satisfying enough for the whole week…
went short yesterday at NYO and grabbed 0.7% (risking 2% on the trade, 2/3 of the position got stopped out at BE while I was sleeping), although I’m happy for every win, obviously, I would love to see me grossing 3-5% per week eventually - so my one shot one kill trades need to get better
I got 80pips out of the cable yesterday (not bragging I needed it to make up for a horror run) but when everyone else expressed shock at the rally up, I started to wonder what is was that tripped people up or had I completely mis-read the charts and just got lucky so after much head scatching I decided my analysis was made up from alot of different ways of thinking but still within ICT’s methods and tools so here’s how the story unfolded.
Someone had posted that they where looking to go short Cable when price reached a certain level but when I was looking at the chart there was nothing to show bearishness, the flow was still up on the Daily, 4H and at that time 1H (Asia time), market structure had put in Intermediate Term Low on the 4H so I’m looking for a ITH to form next, there was a 4H support level that price just wouldn’t CLOSE below.
Fiber WAS bearish BUT every man and he’s dog was jawboning the EURO problems and “here we go again…”, “Spanish bonds…” blah blah, “Can’t pay debt…”, blah blah, “End of civilization as we know it…” blah blah…
Also there’s how I look at the Traders Trinity, not just as an over bought/sold indi but also as the previous weeks range/candle and being a fractal fanatic (“If you can’t fractal IT then F** IT” is my moto) and most candles will retrace at some point at least a third, 50% or two thirds into the previous range AND we’ve just bounced off the 2 previous weeks Lows …
I refused to buy until price got into the pivot sell zone and in a kill zone (I’m trying really hard to be more disciplined), it just so happened it was at LO that the 38% fib was very near the CPP and price hit the top of the previous consolidation all just before the cable News was coming out.
Target was 10ish pips below Fridays high (remember I’m looking for a ITH on the 4H to form up next so why take the chance that Friday isn’t it)
p.s. The MACD is 40/18. I was toying wih the idea of making some sort of indicator that showed the spread difference of the 40-18ma, LOL then it occured to me what a macd was… DOH!!
They are the TWISTED sisters not the conjoined twins.
They’ve been playing the EURGBP for a while now, I been ignoring the fiber SMT’s and just paying attention to the USDX ones.
Not that it’s help me all that much, so I’m treating them separately atm.
I bagged 40 pips this morning on GU, got in long at 1.59 after the initial drop, exited at 1.594, before the news release, didnt want to hang around for the crazy price action (even though it would have sent it shooting up another 40 pips - but were trading here, not gambling ;))
I still get the feeling we are in for a drop, i think were in some sort of distribution or re-distribution phase… Sitting on my hands now till probably NY to see if i can see an entry…
Yano… I’ve only been learning to trade since about November last year, and have been demo-ing since around February time… At first i thought it was all about learning as much as i can in order to be able to get the right tools to be able to know [B]when to trade[/B]… But, i think over this past week, ive realised its more important to be able to know [B]when not to trade[/B], and to just sit on your hands until the perfect setup is screaming at you with a number of confluences in place…
It’s something which i still battle with to this day if i’m honest, but i think your far better off taking 1 trade a month which your analysis and confluences support, rather than 1 trade everyday where you [I]think[/I] you might be right…
at least until I get my mind straight again…
Am sad 
