Yes. I really like this analysis. Because i assume we are in the downtrend myself, even tho i couldn’t elaborate on that idea this week. Somehow i got myself into difficult trades and either exited to earlier or entered to soon. And i was looking the whole week to short from 16165 level, i guess i should have looked from the figure. And the level you mentioned (bold) is clear now. I still don’t beleave sometimes that it will reach levels which i have noted
I disagree, but thats just my opinion. For example some indicators, like SMT divergence which happen at the moment are sometimes misleading and you only see that AFTER the fact you traded. Thats why i need information before the move, try to filtrate what i can count and what not. But like i said its my opinion. If looking at history and analysis helps for you then i can only envy you.
Thats too bad due to your work. But i do have the same job actually :)) well i had. I only for half time now, and still, am sitting here instead of working Will be following your indications as now i understood your situation.
I got beat up on this one! hmmm where did we go wrong guys? trading against weekly bias? not considering weekly trinity? or is this just one of those trades where we did the right thing but it didn’t work out?! thats the question i really want to know the answer too
What im kicking myself most about is the fact that i saw the perfect short setup this morning and i didnt take it as i thought its against my bias - which is so far proving wrong unless we have an unbeliavble bullish thursday and friday…
The last two weeks have been good for me, last week i took 4 trades and every single one was a winner, so came into this week so positive only to be gunned down…
Think i need the week off to unwind and get back to it next week with a fresh mindset…
If it helps at all, it has been pretty choppy out there, recently. GBP/USD and EUR/USD have not always shown as much consistent correlation as we often expect them to, I have been heavily favouring my end of day trading and have not bothered with intraday much until things calm down. I think that a large part of it is that in a global recession the market is hyper-sensitive to fundamentals, news releases etc., and it has been a pretty bad time for bad news: Portugal cancelling public holidays, trouble finding a Government that can agree on austerity measures in Greece, French elections giving us a President who can’t make a second term for the first time in over 30 years, the UK coalition having to ‘relaunch’ having only been formed in the first place about five minutes ago, more bad news on mortgage lending, bad construction numbers, plus a US election looming in the background with many analysts thinking that a disappointing President is going to get reelected owing to a weak opposition - there’s a load of other stuff, and I am rambling, but I just wanted to say this: we are in the middle of a sort of perfect storm of factors at the moment that could be designed to leech confidence out of the markets, and loss of even medium-term confidence tends to lead to spiky volatility, moves not playing out as we expect etc. Small move intraday trading is always going to be the first area to be hit by that sort of volatility - as I say, I am currently trading far less intraday and am focussing on end of day, as it is riding the current conditions slightly more calmly. I could go through all the regular advice - only take grade A setups etc. - and it’d be right, but the sad fact is that the market always goes through periods of not behaving as we would like, and we’re in one now in my opinion. Don’t let that undermine your overall confidence - if you have a profitable 2012, you will look back and not care if May was not what you had hoped. There are always ups and downs, and periods that suit a strategy better than others. If your underlying knowledge and execution are sound, then overall it will pay you to stick at it.
Hopefully that was reassuring rather than patronizing, apologies if I missed.
This is familiar - my coach always used to say to me: ‘trade what you see, not what you think’.
Overall, even if I address the market with one idea in mind, if the chart is telling me something else, then I have learned that it pays me to trade it.
No apologies needed ST… I always appreciate the advice and encourging words from the more experienced traders on here, after all, thats why im here, to learn…
I agree, im going to get pushed down a lot as it seems in this game, just need some time to reload and get my mind set right before i start looking at charts again. The last thing i want to do is take 5 steps back and start revenge trading like i used to!
I agree, completly - trade what you see not what you think. And i guess that was my biggest downfall today… In my mind, the short setup i saw today i looked at as a scalp rather the actual move of the day… Guess my bias got the best of me…
Eager to see how the rest of the week plays out now…
Now I can see that going short at 1.6155 was the right one. OTE from yesterday’s NY session high to today’s Asia low plus CPP plus LO KZ plus judas…!!!
But my bias was up up up until we take out 1.62 levels plus Swing formed on daly!!! Hmmmm…
Now I wonder how possible to determine which stops buy or sell to be raided first??? Is there something what ICT has as a hinting point in his bias??? :s
Sensing some frustration and so hoping I can help.
I have been bearish since the 5/01 ITH was made.
At the beginning of the month we hit resistance and made a swing high. This lined up perfectly with seasonal tendencies. Market flows and now the moving averages for the fiber point to shorts. After Sunday’s gap I figured there may be a small retracement so I had one long yesterday counter trend but other than that I’m pretty much looking for shorts.
Someone (Piphanger??) asked how people use the tools for trading confirmation. Here is what I do (I try to keep it very simple):
Kill Zone (London open or New York open for me)
Support/resistance (real and implied, the more the better (aka confluences))
SMT divergence
USDx divergence
If I have all those I will enter a trade at 1% risk. I do not enter if any of these are missing.
Type I and/or Type II stochastic divergence
A/D divergence
If I have any of these two I will bump up risk to 2%.
I use things like pivots and trader’s trinity to get an idea of where price is relative to where it has been and for trying to project where it is going. I do not simply trade off the fact that it is in the buy/sell zone.
Remember I’m just trying to help so here is what I think you guys are doing…you are trying to pick the bottom. Look at last year’s May slide on the fiber, nearly 1,000 pips. With hindsight being 20/20 and if price drops 160 pips do you look to go long because it is hitting support? It drops about 900 pips just off the LTH made 5/4/11.
Obviously every year is going to be different but I think if you guys were trading last year you would be looking to go long because price is hitting support all through the down move. Let it hit support, bounce, form a swing low, confirm with the technicals and tools like COT and seasonal tendencies and then change your bias. Otherwise just ride the trend and try to capture a portion of the 300+ pips we have dropped this month.
Does this help at all? Done trading today so I’ll be on the forums to reply.
BTW, I too find it helpful to post charts of their trading ideas…the only reason I don’t do this is because I’m not good enough at this and the last thing I can do when trading is jump on the forums and post what I am doing Also, I’m not sure how helpful it would be for me to keep posting “looking for shorts, going to look for a judas up in LO and if none will look for something in NYO”.
Hang in there everyone, if I can do it so can you. Most of you are better technicians than I am and I went full time using ICT’s methods last month.
I do analysis of USDx chart and find that, it has crossed the 80.00 resistance level and next resistance is 80.65 ( see the 4hr chart) so there is a huge possiblity other currency to go short. In the mean time Cable is retraceing from 1.6065, so I draw the ffib from low of the asia session to lowest price so far today and place a limit sell order on 1.6100 important level and my s/l would be 10 pip above of asia session low and target is 1.6065. There is two hour left to LC, seems it’s NYO opportunity to go short. Mention able that, Cable & Fiber are short bias and I m looking retracement to go short. If not retrace as desire, no problem, my wkly target 100 pip alrady hit.
There is also one thing on which I would really like to know ICT’s opinion:
Line charts do not always show divergence even though it was in real price action which you could see on bar/candle charts. Which one is more correct to be used for dicision making?
Will be following your indications as now i understood your situation.
