Well this is what I saw…bearish for currencies for the moment at least. Any one else like to comment.
Courtesy of NetDania btw
I am really new to this thread and ICT’s methods as a whole, so don’t take anything I say as criticism just my way of learning.
I also would not have taken this trade because it was not in a Asian Close, LO, or NYO “kill zones”. While market flow (Lower low fractals on daily 4h and 1h) was down price was not in the sell region of the daily pivots.
So in my eyes price was near a lower support which may still hold, in the buy zone of the pivots and not in a kill zone.
Also in a down trend price appears to move upwards (Correct? May have misunderstood) in the first sessions forming the daily high before the days trading takes price downwards.
Also I remember hearing in a video and reading in the thread that the days that follow a large move generally do not have such a large range downwards so selling after a large move downwards the day prior is not advised.
Thats is why I have made no trade today so far. I am watching 1.2738 for a sell in NYO if price would go up that way. After NYO though I don’t see any other entries on eurusd.
I am still in the early days of learning how to trade this way, I am not having problems staying out of trades but still don’t know half of what I am looking at! Well practice makes perfect! It’s still all looking randomly chaotic for me.
Personally, after yesterday’s failure for EURUSD to bounce around the 1.2680 mark, I see it reaching for 1.2530/60 (1.2500) this week. At this point I will look for an oversold bounce to the 1.2910 area with perhaps a move up to 1.3000 before fresh supply arrives to resume the decline and re-launch the USDX recovery.
Edit: I’m remaining out the market awaiting a sell opportunity in the coming days/week. I was anticipating being bullish but then the EURUSD failed to recover at 1.2680.
Commercials increased their longs with more than 30% in last two weeks!Small speculators are in extreme net short with -45.964 contracts.Who`s gonna win? 
I’m already blown out the market…
After my thoughts of bullish for foreign currencies this morning… Cable made an early break out of Asian making LL and Fiber failed to make the same break…
Cable went back up and came down providing what i thought was OTE, entered long at 1.574 (support level?)… Felt i had:
- Time of day
- Pivot buy zone
- SMT divergence
- OTE
Stop 10 pips below my fib line (1.5425)… Result = -1%
Reducing risk to 0.5%…
Market is really doing its number on me this week… :56:
Was expecting more of a risk-on rally (and still a chance we could get it, EU Summit later?) with a final corrective risk-off approach in mind taking us down to mid-june possibly…? (when Greek elections are finally held).
I went short EUR/USD at LO OTE 1.26744 (2680 - key resistance, institutional level, H4 MF down), took 50 % off near 1.2635 and I have the remaining 50 % running with a stop at 1.2660.
I think you folks are being blinded by your bias.
Sanj we are in a sell programme, look at the high made yesterday London open. Cable went higher, Fiber failed to do so. You need to consider trend when taking divergence into account. In the current environment divergence on the highs is a lot more valuable than divergence on the lows. You have a high made on Tuesday, confirmed by divergence and you have been told the weekly high or low often occurs at this time of the week, why then try buy wednesday? We fell off the table overnight, that is a pretty telling sign on its own. Yes you are trading at a key support level but this is now the 2nd time the respective levels are being tested, the OTE’s fell through after a small bounce yesterday, you should expect the low to be tested and possible get in on a turtle soup entry if you retain your long bias.
I have said on this thread so many times, you will see divergence on larger swings but they often become void especially when that divergence is against the trend. Far more interesting to me is the weekly divergence on the highs between cable and fiber. Why? because it is with the trend.
Piparush. The commercials can maintain extreme longs for extended periods of time. They are also not ALWAYS right. Further study is required here. You are also completely ignoring market structure.
Commercials net long in a bull market is completely different to them being long in a bear market.
Trint- Assuming what the market will do is a mistake that will cost you many missed opportunities. In a general sense I think it is good to be intouch with fundamentals and news. You need to develop a “sense” of what you expect the market to do overall but don’t develop expectations of what price SHOULD do. I try to limit this to risk on/risk off. Rather trade what you see. I made that mistake this week, I thought we would see 2860 as the high this week but looking back 2820 was a perfect 78.6 OTE.
Take this as constructive criticism.
Someone asked where I drew my fibs. I drew them based on the start of the new day and the asian high.
As for divergence I will still have to study that. I saw usdx makeing fresh highs I viewed that as bearish for foreign currencys but the fact that fiber and cable (at that point) failed to make lower lows was confusing. I am still trying to decide who leads who its like which came first the chicken or the egg?
Anyway I do appreciate everyone’s input.
As of this morning I see that eur/usd has made a lower low so I am still bearish
Thank you,Shaun,but I didn`t say today will be a buy day :).I said a bottom can be just around the corner.
Perhaps what I should have said is that I’m guessing/having a hunch at what might happen in the near future. When viewing the markets I’m of the opinion that anything can happen and that every moment in the market is unique and that it may make opportunities available to you according to how you setup your entry/exit strategies.
Went down the route of trying hard to continually understand what moves the market in a lot of detail at first but realised this search for knowledge was in fact down to my own reluctance initially in accepting I could be wrong in a trade.
Im not going to attempt to argue with anything you have written - simply because you are right. My attempt to keep trying to go long in this obvious market is what has lead to what looks like to be my first losing month after a couple good months…
However, not to continue to badger on with my bullish trend… I understand that in such a bearish environment such as this, divergences of swings based on a 5m/15m/1H and 4H can and will become void due to the trend. But is the idea of the whole ‘SMT Divergence’ tool not to see major change in market trend? And again, while i agree the lower TF swings will become easily void, the divergence and break of swings which happened today surely can’t be avoided to show some indication towards some bullish action…
Cable n Fib…
Fiber broke a significant low today making it lowest point of the year, with the Cable far from doing so… I think if there was ever an SMT divergence to pay attention to, surely this would be it indicating we should expect some change in trend soon?
Anyway, this last week has really hit me, ive got some major work to do to myself to keep myself trading with the trend and not against it!
Any comments, of course welcome…
Personally I am far more interested in this
With that said the divergence you have noted is viable and this is the reason readers of this thread get confused as to what divergence to use. I go with the trend. The divergence I have noted is “confirmed”. Price has made a high and is falling off from a higher TF OTE. Your divergence will become of more interest to me when cable falls down to 5600 inside OTE, and when we down there at key support 5600 and we get smaller TF divergence confirming the level, I would then buy. If that OTE fails I would then write off the bullish divergence at that point. We might get a small tradable bounce from the OTE to go long at 5600 but as to how far price will rally? I don’t think anybody knows.
Who’s gonna win?? ME
Hi guys. I’m still alive.
Had a lot going on. I changed jobs in mid-March and needed to reset myself.
I used to get to my old job around 915am ET, and I was getting into a routine to set my alarms to trade LO in the middle of the night, then get some more sleep before awakening for my day.
My new job, I get to work a little after 7:30am ET. Given the earlier wake up time, I needed to focus on really learning the NYO session as I can take the first 90 minutes of work to explore and trade the NYO period.
I setup a new demo account to learn the NYO session and after trading that up about 25% over 5 weeks, started the process to go live. I went live this week.
It actually went live last week, and in anxiousness to get started immediately took 2 losses on Friday. So been wrestling with fear this week.
The amount deposited was a small amount, and certainly isn’t something that would impact me really if I lost it all, other than bruised ego and not really another chance due to needing to keep my wife on board.
I took a third loss in a row on Monday. Entered a LC trade, thinking we had the high of the week put in on Monday morning. Entered short on E/U at the bottom of the AR from Monday. Had my stop resting a few pips above Monday’s AR high. Well darn it…price went up, cleared stops where I was sitting then dropped.
Sat out yesterday. Didn’t find a trade I liked.
Went short in NYO today. Entered at 7am ET in an OTE from AR high to the low from LO. Price did go up an came within 3 pips of stopping me out for a 4th straight loss, but price reveresed and now sitting in my favor significantly. Scaled more than 50% out of the trade so far, but letting some ride to reach an extension of the TT for this week. As I type this, my equity is close to getting me back to breakeven from opening my account.
I’ll be around and post some more. Just more restrained at work and less time to focus on it as I used to have in my old job. I haven’t even had time to watch and of ICT’s videos since he’s been putting them back online. Part of that is intentional as I’m trying to develop myself into an independent trader and trying to not be influenced by others.
Catching up on recent activity on the thread, I wa surprised to see quite a few looking to go long today or recently. Today is the 5th day in a 5 day fractal formation on the daily. Looks like Monday’s high will become the new fractal high to start referenceing swings from. And we are clearly in a sell program. Even though at the buy zone of TT, and buy zone of pivots…saw today as a clear short to setup market structure to continue lower. Just my take from today’s analysis.
Right, so im trying to change my mindset for the moment to a bit like PipHanger… Im only focusing on shorts as ive had a bad week and its purely because my trades are focusing on going long…
So with that in mind, i took my first trade at NY… Shorted the Cable at 1.5728… Sitting on just under +40 - locked break even and taken profit… I will let the position run as for the first time in a while for me [I][B]im trading with the trend![/B][/I]
Needed this really, little morale boost after the last couple hits…
:57:
Hey LTPP
Glad all is well. Am sure you will get on track soon also in NYO and your live account will pass the wife test!
Looking forward to read your posts and best of luck for your new job.
hi people
Again i speak to you all, cause I see to many people strugling with the same mistakes BIAS BIAS BIAS… guy and gals please read the market… we can be in a Short Bias and still profit with long trades … the market doenst move only in one direction only… you guys need to take pressure off and learn to feel the market study his ways and moves how it reacts to certain levels give importante to the intraday HH and LL those are key levels to pull fibs and try to sort out entry points
like today i got 2 trades one still open one on euro entere .2660 short with a 30 pips SL and TP was sitting on .2600 this one was hit in perfection i was eating lunch and didnt move the TP so i could get more pips on the move but were 60 pips RR 2.1 so GOOD one there
also i have other trade still open on pound .5723 SL 30 pips and TP is siiting on .5660 i’m already BE and considering close the trade…
also i’m at camping and on vacation so i dod not over analised all trades taken this week no losses and 5 trades this week so far…
i’ll try to post images later ok.
the images speak for them self’s
Triple top on euro intraday imediatly rejected
and the open trade on pound
on pound a perfect entry as stated
and the history of the week.
hope i could help you guys…
sorry if the images are poor not a expert at this.
PS - just for the record we broke the low off 2010 august on euro we are now fighthing lows of september 2008
Wondering if you can explain alittle more detail on why you thought the market high for the fiber was on Monday. I find it interesting that there realy is no real reason to think that it was. The market could have gone up from that point, and that could have been the low.
Trying to understand your thought process.
Thanks
Remember we are playing probabilities. With a high probability, we know the high or low is usually put in by Tue LO. That doesn’t mean only at Tue LO…just that by that time we can reasonable expect that (sometimes it’s hard to know if its the hi or low until we have hindsight…but that’s a different question)
Right now we are in a clear push down sell program. Who know how far it will go. What we do know is the past few weeks have been stron bearish moves. And last week the high was on Sunday, and the week before, the high was on Monday.
The one thing that did give me puse was the possibility of Friday’s low forming a fractal low. And IIRC, market flow was bullish on the 4hour and hourly.
To me…it was understanding we are in a sell program, and we had price retrace back close to the 18MA. Price had gotten away pretty far below the MA…so a retrace back towards it is going to happen. I thought it was reasonable to look at the retrace back towards the MA and start setting up the new fractal high to reestablish the sell program.
Make sense?