My reason for my short bias is this market is in a higher TF move off the daily, the OTE up at 3250 in my opinion was not done. I know in ICT’s book he said he was out but my targets are based on inverting the FIB on the OTE (We discussed this a few post’s back, ICT said he would record a livestream vid on the topic). I should say here that I don’t think there is a right or wrong way when it comes to one of the two ways and deriving take profit objectives, I use what has always worked for me. The 200 extension was down at 2600. That coupled with the fact that there would have been stops under 2624 that would have looked attractive.
In a more general sense things in the news have started to heat up with Greece and the like, volatility is picking up and the tone was pretty risk off to me despite the rally Monday/Tuesday (larger picture is risk off across all markets).
I must state that I did not expect Monday to form the high, I thought we would see 2860 and this cost me my one shot one kill this week on fiber. This is why I said to Trint we should not make the mistake of assuming price will go to certain levels, we should trade what we see unless technicals say otherwise. I did however get short EURNZD late NY today which has saved the week for me, this is also a higher TF OTE off the daily aswell as a 1 hour OTE off of last weeks key level 1.6950.
Fiber broke a significant low today making it lowest point of the year, with the Cable far from doing so… I think if there was ever an SMT divergence to pay attention to, surely this would be it indicating we should expect some change in trend soon?
Anyway, this last week has really hit me, ive got some major work to do to myself to keep myself trading with the trend and not against it!
I wouldn’t beat yourself up or anything! To be honest what your trying to do is extremely difficult in that you are trying to pick tops and bottoms in the market.
I honestly don’t know what you know and only about 10% of what Michael knows but in my opinion it is far safer to wait for confirmation on moves. You get in later and all together miss moves but it is far safer.
As for bears v bulls I think it is prudent to look at higher timeframes and decide on a direction and look for trades in that direction. If the market changes direction and the bulls take over than there will be a retest. I can guarantee it so maybe a good idea to try in get in on these retests.
fiber will probably hit the 2500 area. I don’t know if it will bounce or not but this market is falling so hard the last thing I would do is get in the way. If anything I would consider playing a bounce of the 2500 area and in cable maybe I would expect a bounce at the 5650 area and if that area breaks down than a bounce of the 5600 region.
Just my two cents for what it’s worth. I would also like to add that I find everybody’s comments extremely helpful as I incorporate more and more ideas into my analysis.
Thanks,
John
wow my analysis today is very conflicting;) If I wouldn’t see market structure then all those bullish divergences (SMT,stoch, indices, usdx-cable) I would definitely look for longs… I actually even had limit orders (on tiny risk because its counter trend, for the mid figs on both pairs - meant as a scalp) but neither got triggered and started moving up closer to the bigfigs, where I would have considered a short entry… but didn’t reach all the way up again;)
right now, although still too early to be sure, I’d say we might see a SnD today?
I’ll stay flat until I’m less confused;)
edit1: I guess its more clear now;) too bad my limit sell order wasn’t triggered by 2 pips…
I actually havent even looked at the Cable or Fiber this morning… I opened my charts before work and took my first glance on the Aussie and it looked like as clean as a trade can come…
Can’t post charts as im at work, but even got in through pending orders left this morning - Judas swing up and raid the pocket of stops there had lined up, short order triggered at the 0.9780 (inst level), in the daily pivot sell zone (and i think at R1 if i can remember my charts at home correctly). Got triggered right at LO and already taken 1/4 off and locked BE+1 at 30 pips… Planning to take 3/4 off at 0.97 if it makes there…
Still got my short running from yesterday on Cable too…
Hey John… Couldn’t agree with you more to be honest… Looking at the charts the trend is clear, and while it is possible to make money going both ways, why make trading harder than it already is? Trading with the trend has got to be easier than looking for the odd trade against it… I think i needed the last few % losses on my account to realise this…
Im still fairly new to Forex myself, and tbh im glad i can make these mistakes and learn from them while im still running my demo… The last week and a half has been tough on me, was really in a bad mood the last few days just taking hit after hit. Now after glancing at my journal and seeing all my losses came from trying to go long, it seems so obvious what i did wrong…
Anyway, i hope this is my lesson learnt and i can carry on moving forward from here…
This really is a great thread of folks, i haven’t been around as long as some on here but there a great help…
fiber will probably hit the 2500 area. I don’t know if it will bounce or not but this market is falling so hard the last thing I would do is get in the way. If anything I would consider playing a bounce of the 2500 area and in cable maybe I would expect a bounce at the 5650 area and if that area breaks down than a bounce of the 5600 region.
cable did hit 1.5640 and bounced over 40 pips up. I was sleeping but it would have been a simple s/r bounce
fiber didn’t make it all the way down it hit 1.2514 area but it bounced that region for 70 pips so far.
These bounces happen all the time and are a good and easy way to bank pips.
Watch the video that rwhen posted for you… Kill zones are the first tool that you should use when trading ICT’s methods. There are videos for every kill zone (Asian, London Open, Ny Open, London Close). You are in a heap of trouble without this element.
guys it looks like the 2580 line has held on my fiber trade going into NY I’m targeting 2540 for pt1 and 2515 for tp2 and what I plan to do is close 50% at pt1 close 40% at pt2 and let 10% ride and see if we get an even bigger drop overall. Who knows eu could drop all the way to 2150 if selling pressures continue. I’m not sure if I can hold on that long but I am looking at that last 10% as a swing trade.
This is something I will try to do I think overall I will end up giving that 10% back to the market but sometimes I think I will hit a home run.
BTW thanks rwhen19 for posting the video I will definitely watch it earnestly! Thanks also to abrsive for the advice, it’s much appreciated.
I’ve been submerged in AUD/USD and NZD/USD lately. Those markets trend like crazy compared to E/U and G/U. I find there’s a better possiblilty to catch longer moves there. I’ve been using SMT divergence on the trades (so far done in demo). Taking profits at 161 - 200 fib extension. First TP at 30 pips, 30 pips risk. 40% at TP1, 40% at TP2, the rest (20%) trailing under the low of the day (can catch some hefty moves sometimes). So far so good. I will post results when I go live with this strategy because for me Demo trading is not indicative of ANYTHING.
cool!
I think I should also take a look at those pairs eventually… but currently I’m still trying to tame the cable and fiber;)
but thanks for the hint mate!
Trust the day i decide to switch my thinking to shorting the pairs that its better to go long! Lol!
Even though analysis was right, got busy at work, didnt see the reversal and my trade got stopped at BE after being 60 pips up!.. This mornings move down looked so strong so i left limit for TP2 and it never made it…
