apparently there is still selling pressure in the market cable made a new swing low but fiber didn’t
if the 2740 region holds for eur/usd than I would consider longs but if it breaks than maybe there will be a retest of the 2640 area. I’ll have to wait and see what transpires during NY
Hi everyone,
I just wonder how far can fiber continue to go lower with that COT data showing Commercials extreme long positioning for the last 8 or more years??? Should we just expect the possible reverse and ITSL or LTSL formation on fiber very soon?
Hey JS88.
Where do you get your COT data? The commercials have certainly not been net long for 8 years. In fact, they were heavy net short May 2011, right where the high was put in.
Hey everyone…
First trade of the week and took a hit to my account today… -1.5%
Today was actually the setup i was waiting for since pretty much LO on Monday… It played out today, but as i had a busy day at work, was all done by pending orders and i think that was my downfall (as price is still yet to go the other way to prove me wrong)
Took a long fiber today, took a non aggressive entry at 1.276 but got stopped out at 1.274 (in hindesight, a tight SL…)
My reasons this morning for placing the pending order:
Anyway, kind of bummed out that i got stopped out, especially if it does go up as i thought it might…
Me = Gym, pound out some frustration
Account = Reduce to 1% risk and look for my next setup tonight 
On the plus side, i feel this week ive had a bit of a breakthrough - as in i haven’t really felt the urge to be in a trade everyday… I stopped looking for a setup everyday… Instead im picking a setup, waiting for it to unfold and then going with it… Yesterday i was actually happy to stay flat as what i had planned hadn’t shown on the charts…
Anyway, tomorrow is another day…
:57:
EDIT: Looks like my trade never would have really worked out, really did feel like my analysis for it was sound and it should have moved up a little - but the market obviously wont care lol!.. Time to figure out where i went wrong!
Sorry, but here must be some misunderstanding. For sure i’m not saying that SM are net long for 8 years. What i mean is that SM net longs extremes are at levels never seen during long period of time. For example last time Commercials long extremes were on May 2010 and now they are twice higher. Just look at chart.
COT EUR.bmp (736 KB)
The trades I took in LO today on AUDUSD and NZDUSD:
Reasons for short:
-price been going up for past 2 sessions, so at least retracement expected
-1H overbought oscillators (W% R and Stoch)
-price above Asian Range low and above the EST opening price
-price overbought on Daily and Weekly Pivots
-SMT between the pairs and USDollar in LO(see pic.)
-HTF OTE on AUD
-Aussie hit a Key HTF level (0.9925)
-Judas Swing Up to clear stops above AR
All ingredients for a lovely short was present and the news expected for GBP in LO was the catalyst for the drop.
Entries: 0.9924 and 0.7660 respectively
Covered Aussie short just below the asian low for 37 pips and Kiwi before the 0.76 fig for another 51 pip profit
Did not scale out (and did not hold portion for NYO), due to lot size issues (trading min lots), thats why closed first trade earlier, kinda scaling out.
total for the day: +88 pips, risking 1% (on ~26 pip SL) combined. R:R= 3.4
that with yesterday’s scalp brings my weekly profit to 5.52%, which is my goal pretty much.
Posting this not to show off or brag, but to demonstrate that ICT’s tools [B]are working[/B] (as always have been) when used correctly. It is all in our heads guys, success and failure. Tame your demons and world is yours. We have the treasure map, but is up to us to find the treasure, Michael can not help here.
GLGT!
Sorry, I did misunderstand you.
What’s that tell us then? Possibly long term turning point in the market…Maybe in June when seasonal tendencies show the Cable often rallies.
Find out soon enough I guess.
I was thinking that it would be great if ICT could give some of his ideas on this issue in his next market review video.
Well it looks like last Thursday’s low held eurusd today but that 2680 area is also showing resistance. Price will have to go somewhere. For now I am only focusing on eur/usd. In my opinion this pair is the most predictable. I still have so much to learn so my analysis has all kinds of holes in it.
One thing I am comfortable with is key price levels like session hi/low s/r ets… So I work with that. There was a strong move down towards the 2650 area about 2 hours ago (4:00 est) I think this was a bank move but I could be wrong. I am always suspect of late big moves like that. Could they have driven price down to get a better price to buy at??? It seems like it but it gives us a good low to look at. To me that 2650 area is of great interest, If we break lower than that than I would be eying the 2540 region but no matter what it does I would anticipate a nice bounce at that level so I will be looking for buying the bounce and than maybe getting in at some sort of ote but at that distance I don’t know if it would take a couple of days to unfold.
(hypothetically speaking) Once it hits the 2650 area and assuming the 2680 area is the high for the day, it would have to bounce around 30 pips and that would give me a decent ote entry to go short based on the asian high
so that is my long scalp short trade set up that I am eying for tonight into tomorrow.
Any input would be great. Veterans of this method be gentle I’m still learning and honestly I haven’t even looked at pivots or some other factors.
so looking at the dollar index usd made a nice new high but eu and gu have failed to make a new low. I think they will drop big time tonight but I’m just trying to grasp the divergence thingy.
Anyway if there is no retracement than there will be no trade. Even that last blue candle from my chart above closed down.
I remeber Michael saying something that was obvious but wise about a bearish market has candles that close lower than there open so if that’s true than shorts might be a good play. Price is already 42 pips lower than it’s open but London could change all that (but I doubt it)
okay so i got in short at 1.2680 ote entry
Why did you place your fib on that red candle? That wasn’t a swing high. Wouldn’t you want to go to a lower time frame for your entry? And also wouldn’t you want to be trading in the kill zone LO or NYO? Just some thoughts.
It would look like more of a swing on a different timeframe, such as 15-5 min. Price had consolidated where he started the fib, price dropped and was now moving back to that consolidation.
Hey guys, I took a nice short today at LO. Pretty much caught the high of the day. This is the first time I have ever done that… pretty stoked about it. If you are interested you should check my thread out. I posted the trade as well as some pics of fib extensions that would have nailed the low of the day(I closed earlier). The fib sometimes creeps me out with its accuracy. haha
http://forums.babypips.com/show-me-money-daytrading/44564-ode-journey-2.html
Ok someone please mistake me if im wrong…
I also spotted this crack in the usdx correlated pairs:
According to Michael’s example in the correlation video, the USDx making lower lows, and the cable failing to make higher highs, indicates bullish in the USDx which means bearish for cable… So in this example, the inverse has happened, the USDx has made a higher high, with the cable and fiber failing to make a lower low, should this not indicate bearish USDx action, and bullish cable and fiber?
Someone please mistake me if im wrong…
wow these moves seem to happen later and later during the day…
maybe I need to start drinking red bull again and keep staring at the charts until after 1800GMT;)
was able to catch the LO short on cable and bagged 75 pips (scaling out along the way, and started on 0.5% risk)
I’ll be stalking for the rest of the week and only enter if the charts are shouting at me…
happy hunting
cheers
I see what you’re saying Sanj but being a bit wary on NetDania I was looking at LL’s (lower lows) on the USD and LH’s on the currencies from the start of the day today (11pm yesterday - midnight GMT) to 7:40am GMT this morning.
Thats exactly what i was thinking yesterday. It seems LO+NYO combined moves smaller range than NYO alone (of course along other, not major markets).
USDX made HH,fiber and cable made HL =>bullish divergence.
How I am seeing things this morning. I pray things work out better than yesterday.
