The Inner Circle Trader's Millionaire Traders Guild

Larry’s work is what I cut my teeth on early on. I liked his style of teaching and trading. I have always said he has a wonderful toolbox of technical tools and concepts but he really doesn’t use them as he should. I am about to state something and it might come across as egotistical or pompus on my part… but here goes.

I think I have surpased my Mentor. I prove and you all prove as further evidence… that we “deluded folks” do in fact find Support & Resistance with Fibs… and we do in fact identify when the market will turn on the basis of time and price ratios. If Larry would trade his early work and not create so many new gimmicks for books and seminars… his track record would be better. He admits he is not a great Trader… where we differ… I have given freely what you all will need to be great Traders.

Larry… if you are reading this… I respect you… but your record will be demolished by Inner Circle Trader. Enjoy your reign while it lasts… old friend.

:wink:

I couldn’t agree more! I am very much looking forward to Modules 3 & 4 of the coming series. Thank-you again for all of your hard work.

Regards
Ali

The top one is ICT’s subscription feed, the bottom one is PerfCharts - StockCharts.com - Free Charts

Where are the first 2 modules, Alishijo? Did I miss something?

ICT… You can’t imagine how much I’ve looking forward to these. By the looks of it, you’ve completely surpassed anything I might have imagined.
Thanks for all your hard work, it’s invaluable.

Hi Pippard…

These were my reasons for setting my pending order yesterday morning for going short on the fiber:

  • Daily + 4H market flow bearish
  • Overbought stoch going into LO on the 1H, plus lead to stochastic divergence (someone let me know where i can find all the terms for the type 1, type 2 divergence as im still confused as to which is which - i just know a divergence when i see one! lol)
  • Pivot Sell Zone + R1 (i think our pivots may be different)
  • HTF OTE, 62% was in confluence with the 1.258 (inst level) - When i set pending orders i usually set them non aggressive ie - at the 62% retracement line to ensure i get entry instead of missing the move)

The NY rally up to provide the SMT divergence just felt more confirmation of the short, seemed the Fiber was stuck in that small range distributing…

And some charts i drew up…



The grey box shows the OTE area drawn from the two arrow points

Hope this sums it up… :57:

Hi Mike,

Here goes… When you have some time I’d like to show you where you’re not using one of your tools correctly and you have one tool missing, and improve your trading. I want to share it with the wider audience but want to veto, refine and channel it through you.

Howard.

:13: Please share…

When reading Larry’s book, I think it was chapter 14 he mercilessly ridicules fibs which he titles “the fib of fibonacci”, support and resistance levels, chart patterns, pivots etc. for me it showed Larry’s lack of understanding to certain areas of technical analysis. I can see where you ICT came in and filled the gaps, connecting the missing links. As Alishijo said earlier, Larry has had a horrid time as of late. I can testify to that and I will say that his recent poor performance further opened my eyes to what is showed here in this thread. When you really get down into the content of this thread it does not take long to discover the power of these tools. I will be the first to admit that I am not always in agreement with ICT and some of his teachings and I must stress here SOME, or the way he went about one or two things but as with any mentor or teacher, things will be questioned and as they should be, but at the end of the day that will never take away from what has been shared here. In fact your job should be to further validate these tools and find what works for you and just by going through that process things will be bought into question. That is learning.

Personally for me my most prized possessions are inter-market analysis and fibs. These two concepts on a solid framework of time and price theory (Support and Resistance levels, time of day, daily & weekly opens, knowledge of stops,sentiment, price patterns, higher TF moves and a good dose of logic). This is how I assembled my method using what has been shared here. It has been a one and a half year process of backtesting, researching and swapping between various tools to get here where I am today. It has been a long and hard road. There is still some way to walk but the road will always be walked on, there will always be ongoing research and discovery. That is a part of this. There will always be those who claim success when there is none, they are not hard to spot or those who try to invalidate these tools but at the end of the day you need to stick to your guns and follow the process.

I think something that is not touched on often enough in here is positive thinking and this is probably the reason a lot of members of this thread have gone through quiet patches. The amount of negative energy put into this thread is ridiculous. Often by just reading this thread I find myself going on an emotional roller coaster. Before you even embark on this journey you should get your mind right first because you will be put to the test.

Ask yourself “how bad do you want it”?
How Bad Do You Want It? (Success) HD - YouTube

My personal favourite quote
"most of you say you want to be successful, but you don’t want it bad, you just kind of want it, you don’t want it badder than you want to party, you dont want it as much as you want to be cool, most of you dont want success as much as you want to sleep!"

“When you want to succeed as bad as you want to breathe, then you’ll be successful”

[I]Will Smith shares his secrets of success[/I]
Will Smith shares his secrets of success - YouTube

I realise I have veered somewhat off track here, so to conclude the points to my post. I truly believe this method surpasses any method out there, get your hands dirty by putting in the chart time and go in with a positive attitude and hope to surpass your mentor:54:
(On a side note it would be nice to see how ICT put this method together, I would like to know what concepts where expanded and built upon and how this method was essentially assembled from the ground up. Something like [I]the history of the ICT method[/I], it has also become our method and I would love to know where certain parts originated from. I think that would make for a good read purely from an informative point of view).

Can we have a live meeting or similar sometime? I’d prefer to work with you with a chart and step you through what I’ve noticed.

I’m heading out for a while, boyfriend duty, but I’ll keep tabs on the forum to firm up a time if you agree to some time this weekend.

Well, I have become quite frustrated at trading recently and went back to backtest what is one of the more widely followed methods here - that is ICTs trading method. Backtesting is quite difficult because he uses SMT, which is not really avaliable for backtesting with USDx, so the trading was solely limited to trading off fractals, daily support and resistance and OTEs. I only tested 5 months manually as it is very time consuming to do.

Basically entries would be based upon

  1. Long if daily fractals (based upon 2 daily candles) was up
  2. Short if daily developing (based upon 2 daily candles) was down
  3. Entry taken on a nested OTE (OTE within an OTE) at exactly 72%
  4. Stop loss was 2% for 30 pips
  5. TP was 2% at 30 pips for half and then b/e, and rest of profit to be taken at 90 pips (so a partial win was 1%, full win was 4%)

This might be quite surprising, but I didn’t actually perform that well:

June 2011 - 6 trades - 6% gain
July 2011 - 11 trades - 20% gain
Aug 2011 - 17 trades - 13% loss
Sept 2011 - 8 trades - 2% gain
Oct 2011 - 3 trades 0% overall
Nov 2011 - 7 trades 6% loss

Dec 2011 (no trading due to holiday and low volatility)

So basically over 6 months that is 7% gain which is obviously massively frustrating. One of the more obvious things that occurs just upon backtesting is that the OTE area is wide - about 20-35 pips from the 61 fib line to the 79% line, so it is really the difference between winning 4% and losing 2% - a difference of 6%.

If anyone has any better results using these methods, please could you share how you acheived them, because these are not really my ideal results - I will never get where I want to be with results like this.

Your results are not A typical.

Pick a month from your sampling and we will compare. 17 trades in one month is not what I teach… Had to add that here.

Give me a post with entries and why…

:57:

For me personally, i quite like the idea of the divergences - be it USDx or SMT between Cable and Fiber…

I wonder if being able to use this effectively when backtesting will give you a better success rate in your losing trades - or better yet, [I]keep you out of losing trades…[/I]

I think the concepts here are great, but only once i start applying a bunch of them together. I dont think you need every tool in the box to be consistently profitable, but at the same time ‘i dont think your gonna build a table with just a screwdriver’

I dont think any trade will ever be a sure thing, but the more confluences you have, the greater the chances of success. There are a lot of concepts which are easier to try and learn and apply forward testing in a demo. I’ve had a rough couple weeks, but that’s not because what i have learnt has necessarily been wrong, its been me that has been hindering the use of the tools and concepts shared here…

The other day, i missed a trade because my entry was off by literally 1/2 pips, i then watched it drop about 30/40 pips in about 15/20mins. I would have literally grabbed the peak. A trade like that tells me my analysis was spot on, and the analysis i applied there had an edge - and i think more or less the things i have learnt have all been from here. There are loads of other users which are having great success. As ive said before, i dont think theres anything wrong with whats being taught… Its only us that is holding us back…

Just my 2 cents… :57:

Michael, I just wanted to say thanks a ton, since moving into discretionary trading, you have made me go from lost to “seeing the light”, my account is up over 24% this month alone due to some of your very simple concepts. I cannot thank you enough for what you do, as none of us can aptly put into words how gracious you are.
God Bless You and Your Family!!!

My Results - The Rise and Fall:

I started following ICT’s methods last fall. I was unemployed most of 2011, and became interested in trading currency last July. Around August / September, I found ICT’s original lessons on-line, and had started a small account with GFT. In the fall I brought my account (deposited) up to a little over 5K. Shortly after, Michaels holiday videos started coming out and I began to feel a little more confident. In late January I started a new job, armed with an iphone application and a laptop. From February to April I was able to make $1,400 from the 5K by making small trades (1 to 3) per week.

Towards the end of April, I was riding high, and then I lost self control. I started shorting the pound this one week (the week it went over 1.62) and kept increasing my lot size. None of these trades were made for any other reason than thinking that the pound must be reaching a high, and no real risk management was used, no analysis, etc.

I lost all the profit I’d made in a few days (approx 1400) and had to take a couple of weeks off from trading. It is amazing how sitting and analyzing highs and lows, looking at pivots, fib extensions, TT, etc can get one so in tune with the market. Am now getting back up on the horse that thew me (as I stood jumping up and down in the saddle with a blindfold on) and made 2.2% this (easy) week. A great way to get the trading mindset back is to go back and re-watch the ICT videos.

I want to be a sniper, sitting hidden, and waiting for the opportunity to strike with one or two bullets per week. The bright side is that I have only blown up profits, not initial investment. The down side is that it took time and effort to make those profits, and they were not lost after analyzing good trading opportunities that lost. I gave back that money by acting compulsively. Every trade from now on will be documented with the answer to: Why am I making this trade? How will I minimize losses? I realize that trading is not easy, but it is very doable if someone enjoys the time they spend leaning and doing it.

Ok, after been trading the ‘‘ICT method’’ [B]only[/B], since the beginning of this year (5 months now) on a small live account, I think it is about time to post some results here.

Trades Stats:

Equity Curve:

Weekly Breakdown:

Monthly Breakdown:

Again, this is live account with all emotions related to it.

As you can see, my R:R Ratio is simply tragic, the accuracy too, these are the two points I need to really work on once master the proper risk and trade management.

Will start with this last week. as you can see this is my best week since mid February. 3 trades, 98 pips, +5.52% added to the account. first it was scalp on Monday (+10 pips in the end, dont ask, lots of mistakes there). then on Tuesday shorted Aussie and Kiwi for another 88 pips, have the trade review posted few pages back, wont go over it again… lots of mistakes on this ones too, mainly not willing to let the profits run, down to the huge drawdown I had the recent weeks and the rush to bag the profit while there… The thing I’m really proud of this week is after achieving these results on Tuesday, I managed to sit on my hands and protect the gains made.

As you can see the highest point on the equity curve was +41.2% and that turned to be most disastrous week in my trading so far… after being 7.1% up that week closed on -0.5 (week 8). I was really shocked how profits slipped through my fingers (just when I thought ‘‘I got it all figured!’’) and you see the consequences the following weeks… and months… Still trying to figure what exactly gone wrong that week, all I can tell you is, I did about every possible mistake in trading you’ve ever heard off… I moved the stops away, I overtraded heavily, I doubled up after loss, I tripled up (yep) after loss, lots of revenge trading, tried to force my will on the markets, to prove my analysis are correct, and so on and so on… list is endless…

Took few weeks off here and there (where the % is zero on table) to clear my mind, placed a single trade here and there, but was completely in the claws of the mighty ‘‘fear’’ and closed even a winning trades (these was few anyway) at BE or few pips positive. at some point was looking for any excuse not to trade (too busy at work, etc)
Then what I did? sat on my a$$ and watched every piece of video Michael produced so far like million times on loop… will watch one video until I get really sick of it and then will move to the next one, made a lot of new notes, revised the old ones, spent countles hours on charts, lots of screenshots, etc… Just want to tell you everyone that the answer to every question you havent even thought of yet is already there in the videos… especially the live sessions with the famous ‘‘ICT rants’’ these are simply priceless.

I really wanted to post my results when get to that equity high again, but here it is cant wait to share… and really hope I am now on the way to consistent and profitable trading and wont go off course again.

I know 24.5% is not a huge return and impressive result (especially when with these tools a lot more can be achieved, a LOT MORE), but hey, still better return that any bank can give me on my money. And I’m glad I did all these mistakes early on and got them out of the way (hopefully) so the path to success is all clear now.

Good Luck and Good Trading!
Nick

p.s. every comment, critic or question, most welcomed.

Hey!

Nice post. keep em coming :slight_smile:
One thing tho. Dunno if u realize it or not, but your yearly and monthly and weekly goals don’t add to the same % gain at the end of the year.

  • 240% yearly translates into 240% yearly
  • 20% monthly translates into 890% yearly !!!
  • 5% weekly translates into 1146% yearly !!!

That’s because of the compounding effect.

although what you say is true. I think those goals are spot on. They are more realistic and leave wiggle room for inevitable drawdowns. I dont think even ICT himself has not had a loosing week this year. So if you dont leave room for it then you are setting yourself up for failure. At the very least disappointment.

man, 20% from the start of the month to the end of the month are still 20%, this is what I’m calculating, the change during every month, of course in money this will be different amounts every month… same for weekly, not so sure about what equals yearly, but I’m quiet happy with 240%! :slight_smile:

ROI calculating the actual gains from the beginning of the year until today.

Yep although its nice to fantasise that you will win 1% every day without ever getting it wrong, it just doesn’t happen. Problem with that translation is that it basically assumes a 100% win rate, with no losing streaks. I’m not sure that anyone in the history of trading has achieved that.

Anyway, I have gone over August trading as requested ICT - there’s lots of images here. Actually if I go over it with a more discerning eye, August turns into a +3% month - although I am sure there is any backtesting hindsite bias here to cause that difference - initially I just tested it as I would trade by pressing F12 and advancing the chart, and originally it was a -13% month.

Trade 1 - taken as market flow was down off a daily level, so there was an OTE area for shorting. Judas over asian range, just above previous days highs. And entered on a nested OTE. Unfortunately next was a further stop hunt up taking out the stop.
Trade 2- same day, took the same trade off a nested OTE on the same set up. Perhaps could have held the trade lower - but took standard r/r. Of course I could have held until LC and done a lot better.

Trade 3 and 4 -again, similar set up, bearish market flow, OTE for a judas above asian range into M1(between pivot and R1) Also previous days asian range low.- entered twice and got stopped out as it boosted up to R2.
Trade 5 - R2 coincided with an ote of the entire downmove. Entered during NY session, partial profits and it then moved up to take stop at b/e.

Trade 6 - market flow now made fractal low, and flow is bullish from a daily level. Taking a nested OTE long at S1 with confluence of asian range low and consolidation at NY session. Get whacked out almost straight off on large move down.
Trade 7 - flow still bullish, NYO moves down to ote confluence with daily pivot - take partials before price moves down to take break even stop around LC.
Trade 8 - continuing with bullish flow, OTE on nested ote from midpoint between pivot and S1, taken out with move down to test previous days NY low.

Trade 9 - continued bullish flow, NY OTE from total bull move midpoint between S1 and S2 - partials taken, before stopped out
Trade 10 - continued bullish flow, NY OTE from prior day, midpoint between S1 and pivot - partials taken before stopped out
Trade 11 - continued bullish flow NY OTE from total move up at S3 - partials taken before stopped out

Hello Everyone…
Wanted to give an update on live trading. It has been up and down at one point up to 9.5% overall but experienced a 25% drawl down a month back because of being too aggressive and over trading. Win rate has actually improved to 43% so it seems 50% is more likely my true profitability number.

I collected myself a few weeks ago and have since regained 6% of drawl down. This puts me only down just over 9% from break-even using reduced risk money management and scalping when price is nowhere near major market support or resistance. Micheal’s next series is very timely.

Question for Micheal:
At what point do you throw out your longer term analysis of the market and reevaluate bias?

This is what really caused most of my drawl down by not admitting that I was wrong in my overall analysis. I think the answer is I should have cleared all my limit order setups after I took the first week of losses. It really would not have been that bad if I had not missed three or four nice weekly swing trades by only few pips of my limit orders. I really just need to tighten things up a bit and I will be back in the green again.

Cheers…