The Napoleonic Trading System

Trading Systems Free Forex Trading Systems
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This is my first trading system, so sorry if it is a bit rusty. I hope you all enjoy.

Just a little about me: I am an American 21 year old trader who is about to graduate from the University of Edinburgh, and trade because I enjoy it. I got into trading when I worked at my local Senators Office in Miami last July, and had to collect news data about Latin American and Caribbean countries. There were so many articles about jobs reports, petrobras scandal, etc. This got me fascinated, so my friend from Chicago who invests a lot introduced me to the world of forex. Initially I did terribly as I had no system and lost £900 over in a few days (August 24 lol). Over the next few months I proceeded to make about half my money back to -£500 p/l (February), then I proceeded to lose even more (-£1600 p/l) (February). I was distraught at this point and sad at what had occurred but I didn’t give in. Then I applied myself like a robot, studying everything (books, videos, charts, etc), and I also took a course on international politics of money in University (professor worked for Morgan Stanley). Now I can fully say I am profiting more than I am losing, although I have some long term losing trades I am holding. With this being said my realized p/l is £209 ($304) right now, but it is growing consistently. Here are my rules to being a good trader and having a system. It even got to the point where I recovered £2000 in two weeks even though I proceeded to lose £1300 a week later, although I recovered again. So even though I lose, I lose less than I win.

1.) You do not necessarily need a rigid system as you need room to be flexible and speculative in this market, so throw away those strict systems that provide indicators, and set rules. Why? Because they do not allow you to give market actors enough time to react to their conditions, so I do not necessarily recommend stop losses unless you are too busy to trade. I have never worked in Wall Street, but I use logic when it comes to this.

2.) Support and resistance are very important, as I trade with them. However, you need to give them room to react and should form your own opinion on when to cut losses, depending on how quickly the price drops. If you notice consolidation and lack of movement on the support or resistance, that indicates severe indecision, so use that to stay in the game a little longer. The reason being that market makers may begin initiating a renewed process of accumulation or dumping. What I mean by this is that whenever the market hits a price, unless there is forceful conviction to surpass it, market makers will find a cue to start accumulating in the other direction, as many see the psychological barriers in these levels.

I’ve been in many trades that could have lost much more if I had cut my losses due to a strict adherence of support and resistance, without paying attention to the conviction of price change.

3.) Wicks are extremely important and meaningful. My rule is that in the 5 minute chart, if two wicks of relatively equal length or more form side by side, it is a good indication of a trend reversal. Remember that the wicks have to be indicating the same thing (buying pressure or selling pressure). This may not always be the case and you have to figure out how to apply it, but I think it is a decent tool.

4.) Market openings provide quick ways to get in and out of markets, regardless of exposure. I know most of us don’t like exposure, but we have to learn to get accustomed with it. The first 10 minutes of a market opening are the most important to me and tend to indicate a trend. You don’t have to leave markets after the first hour or so, but I recommend.If market sentiment is positive and you are long on a losing trade, keep it and hope it moves further to the upside.

5.) Beware of the fakie. This is when market makers dump stocks or currencies on the open in an attempt to fake a bearish or bullish trend to trap other traders in. Again, wait about 5-10 minutes after market open and pay attention to the wicks. Market makers love fakies on market open to try to gobble you up!

6.) All time frames are you friend. You have opportunities to trade 5 minute or 4 hour if you want to. I recommend 5 minute for daily traders. 1 minute doesn’t offer a clear picture, but believe me, 5 minute is the best chart for daily movements. 4 hour is okay, but I think you should analyze 4-12 hour charts individually to see if their charts reinforce one another. I feel 5 minute does very well as a standalone but the higher time frame charts offer mixed messages.

7.) Screw indicators. Don’t use them, as they provide mixed signals. If they were really that successful, then most traders would use them all the time. They are not. They are lagging, and ignore fundamentals and the psychology of market makers.

8.) Complement fundamentals with technical analysis. Never separate them. Fuse them together as part of your strategy. People always say that you either use fundamentals or technical analysis, but why not both? They offer great advantages. Especially when trading exchange traded funds, you can use fundamentals to your advantage since a lot of US economic news usually comes out before the stock market open. Think like the market makers. What would they do?

For example today I put a trade long on the dow after GDP came week and unemployment claims went down. Why? Because it impedes a rate hike in June, but also signals economic resilience. We all expected GDP to suck, but a strong labor market is important because it is the only thing that is solid in the US. It’s truly the best of both worlds. Especially since a depreciation in the currency would help stocks like Apple which tanked.

9.) Analyze each financial instrument individually and note their correlation to other instruments. USD/Yen correlated to Nikkei. Eur/USD sort of correlated to Dow. USD/Yen inversely correlated to Gold. Etc.

I hope this helps. I can write more if you all want. :slight_smile: This is my first guide so I am sure it is rusty.

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  1. The thing is if you do not set-up precise stop losses you will let yourself too much room for arbitrary trading. Plus you can’t really know what your Risk to Reward ratio is. Mental SL is okay but again if you are not scalping you need one in my opinion. You have to accept losses. The main psychology flaw of traders is because they can’t affort to lose mentally. So they do all this over trading and revenge trade thing.

  2. Seems that you are describing stock trading behaviors. Doesn’t really work like this in the Forex. Forex are about pairs and there is no centralized institution.

  3. Again stock trading logic. In forex this is not necessarily the case.

  4. Sounds like there is a conspiration but okay

  5. I personally use multi timeframe. Spotting on 30 min and trading on 1/5 min.
    I upvote the 7th point.

  6. Assuming you are trading CFD with your DOW I recommend using DAX if you trade a the market opening. They move in correlation. The Dow has just more volume during NY session while DAX has more of it during EU session.

Generally speaking people struggle to master technical analysis alone, if they add the fundamentals at the top it will be a complete mess.

Thank you for sharing.

Also feel free to check these videos I’ve made about chart reading.

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There are plenty of strict systems with no indicators at all. I make my full-time living from them.

You’ll change your mind about that one, the first time you have a momentary power-cut, computer error or other kind of disconnection from your trading account during a trade, and suddenly lose half your account. At least, I [I]hope[/I] it will only be [I]half[/I] your account.

It costs nothing to enter at least a “disaster stop” automatically, with every single trade you ever make.

What’s the one thing you’re going to have, when you’ve got someone who’s “very good in a crisis”? The answer is “a crisis”. :wink:

With absolutely no disrespect implied at all, I’m afraid it looks from some of your conclusions like perhaps you don’t yet have enough trading experience to have developed a valid sense of “logic” around these subjects. The “practicality” part is still missing from the theory, at the moment.

I prefer to trust a proven, reliably tested, volatility-dependent parameter, rather than my own opinion on a trade-by-trade basis: that makes it objective and never emotionally dependent.

I suspect it’s the “so” part of that sentence that’s invalidating it: to me, that’s a reason to close a trade. If there’s consolidation, my reason for having entered the trade is no longer valid. I can always re-enter, of course.

I don’t quite understand what you’re talking about, there, but I strongly suspect that it’s a generalised “trading markets-related” observation that actually has comparative little specific significance to the [I]forex[/I] markets.

Haven’t we all? But that in itself is only one part of the story, isn’t it? What actually [B]matters[/B], without cherry-picking evidence to substantiate your perspective, is [I]whether your relative losses from having done that on some occasions are greater or less than your relative profits would have been on other occasions[/I], if that were not your policy. Only painstaking, meticulous, objective and methodical analysis over a statistically significant number of trades can answer that for you. The outcomes and therefore whether your suggestion is valid or not will be very different, under different methodologies. (Whenever I’ve done that, myself, the conclusions have reliably and consistently pointed in the opposite direction to the one you’re suggesting.)

If that’s a way of saying “highs and lows are objective, whereas opens and closes are arbitrary and trader-parameter-dependent”, then I agree with you. But that’s why I prefer to trade from bars rather than from candles. Both give the same information, of course: the open, high, low and close over a specified period, number of transactions or trading volume; the difference is that bars visually accentuate the objective, market-determined aspect while candles visually accentuate the subjective, observer-dependent parts.

I won’t argue with you about that one (but [I]most[/I] participating members of this forum will!). :19:

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lexys, what is your system/strategy? Mind sharing?

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I’m a price action trader. I learned the methods I ended up adapting and using from reading books by Joe Ross, Al Brooks, Bob Volman and others. So - with apologies - although I’m generally looking for “breakouts of recent support/resistance” (and often “second breaks”), I don’t have one simple/set strategy that I can set out succinctly, at all. Far from it, in fact.

But, to summarise: I usually trade 3 days per week, taking about 100-120 trades per month, overall, from relatively fast-moving intraday charts, and all my trading is dependent on technical analysis (just without using indicators). Not very helpful at all, I’m afraid. :8:

6

Here is your P/L that you stated in your post and a chart for visualization purposes.

-900
400
-1100
1404
2000
-1300

I understand trading can have large variances, but this is just purely gambling on tilt. My blackjack “career” is more stable than this. Before giving out advice, you may want to make sure you’re actually consistent first.

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Dude this isn’t accurate at all. My p/l is positive. When I said I recovered £2000 it was from my initial losses. Then I lost a bit, then I recovered that. I’ve been consistent for the past few months which is why I am posting this. I don’t get all this backlash when I am just sharing tips that have worked for me over the course of the year.

Don’t diss my credibility when I have been trading for a year and have a positive p/l. Please just don’t.
I’ve traded over a year using many systems and found that this works and makes me consistently profitable. I don’t like people who act patronizing to me when I am just sharing an opinion so please get off my thread. Unlike many traders I had the courage to offer my winnings over time to show the progression in my strategy. I didn’t use the same type of strategies I do now and they are consistent. I don’t appreciate being called a gambler when I dedicate so much time to researching forex strategies, technical analysis, and fundamental data.

I dramatically changed my strategy in March and it is consistent and profitable to me. I have gained much more than I have lost with this way of thinking.

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I completely disagree. Market makers have the same strategies for everything. A lot of my friends work in Goldman Sachs so I am not just taking things out of my arse. I also never said not to take losses. I take losses all the time, but I am asking that you allow room for trades to develop.

9

You dissed it for yourself, by introducing yourself as a 21-year-old student and then saying “It even got to the point where I recovered £2000 in two weeks even though I proceeded to lose £1300 a week later, although I recovered again.”

I nearly stopped reading your post after that sentence, thinking “Another weird gambler” (and I wish now that I had). Perhaps you genuinely don’t realise that that’s how you come across, but [I]that’s the way it is[/I].

I don’t like people who present themselves as a weird gambler and then object to others giving their opinions in response.

And it’s [B][U]NOT[/U][/B] “your” thread.

You don’t own it just because you started it. It’s a forum, and people [I]will[/I] give their opinions. Some will be [I][U]really[/U][/I] tactful and friendly about it, as I was, above, in pointing out how much I disagreed with most of what you were saying. Others may be a little more outspoken. Deal with it.

Don’t try to censor them. “Please just don’t”. :stuck_out_tongue:

1 Like
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The chart I made shows the net profit/loss between the periods of time you outlined in your first post. P/L is the net gain from one period to the next. What you were talking about is your account balance.

I hope you realize the chart you uploaded shows the [B]exact same thing[/B] mine did, just in a different format. Mine is a P/L chart, while yours shows balance over time. Take the sum all the values (-900 + 400 - 1100 +1404 + 2000 - 1300 = 504) and you get your current balance. I gave you the benefit of the doubt and got a current balance of 504, while your balance shows 250. Just further confirms my earlier statements.

Here’s a simple explanation, in case you didn’t understand:

You seem to think trading for a year makes you an expert all of a sudden. Time doesn’t mean anything, your bottom-line is what matters. To be frank, your current P/L is luck based. You can leave the roulette table positive one day, does that mean you’re always going to? Your sample size is also incredibly small.

As for the principles you outlined, they’re either extremely absolute or things that any trader with a few months of experience would have read online.

All I’m trying to do is make sure beginners reading this don’t get steered in the wrong direction.

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Austerlitzer,

Whatever you want to say to me, you can say it on this thread. You don’t need to send me a Skype request to talk in private. I’m not looking for a fight, just saying it how it is. Judging from the replies of other members here, I’m not the only one thinking the same thing. Even if I am a bit more outspoken than others.

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I’ll have to agree with clarkfx and lexys

13

I’d say come back in 3 months with a not blown account and we’ll talk
Don’t trust anybody on wall street

14

I think the kid has potential, you guys don’t even wanna know how I spent my time at 21 lol

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thank you. that means a lot. I don’t understand all the sharp criticism without substance people are posting here (specifically those two people). I’ve never stated Im an expert and just posted a friendly thread with honest results. I was trying to tell them that I have only used this system since March and it has been producing results for me over the past 2 months. I just wanted to share and be positive. They think I gamble but I take an entire day of research and analysis before making trade decisions. right now on a trade Im about to cash in at least 60 pounds so I don’t think it’s luck based considering I am using different financial instruments. Anyway thank you and always welcome constructive feedback.

16

Does that include my ex girlfriend too? Please. Half my school is going to finance. I am not blind to how the market goes. I have not blown my account in the past 10 months and forsee that I shall not do so for another 10 months.

Sad because I lost 1300 on shorting the Nikkei because I thought the boj wouldnt do anything. I panicked and withdrew but I ended up being right and would have profited by now with a p/l of 1000 pounds or more. I admit my mistake but emotion took over me in that instant and I am not ashamed to admit that it was a mistake.

17

Oh well you obviously are if my system is the only one you criticise with no substance when you have hundreds of others that dont even offer evidence on returns and rely on a lot of indicators. At least I emphasized the importance of price action and support and resistance. I thought that’s what you technical traders drool over.

I’ve found your criticism unwarranted acting like you are the guru of trading. Please. Ive actually taken the time to sit down, read books, talk to investment bankers on strategies, and am being mentored by my friend who is consistently profitting and has never run a negative p/l. I will take their word over your patronising persona.

18

This is exactly the idea of being on tilt. And to believe you were actually “right” after the fact.

Don’t worry you’re not that special. I criticise anything I see that makes no sense.

Although I’m not a huge fan of indicators, they do have a place in some individual’s trading plan. Used correctly (and with confluence), they can be effective in the right market regime. Ex) Identify range/consolidation in the 4-hour timeframe on any pair, apply a RSI(2, close) on the respective 15-minute, you’ll find tops/bottoms 75%+ of the time. Just need to know what you’re doing, if someone were to run a MACD, it probably wouldn’t be as effective. I won’t explain why since I’m sure you’ve had extensive experience with indicators.

Again, the absoluteness of your opinions are telling of your trading experience, or lack thereof.

You say that like others haven’t invested time to their studies? You’re the only one who has taken the time to sit down, read books, talk to investment bankers on strategies (I laughed at this one), and got mentored? Who are you trying to kid. I’m not the one talking like a guru, you’re the one coming on here acting like a child prodigy and expecting people to treat you as such. Your superiority (perhaps Napoleon is a better word) complex is showing and it’s what will hold you back. If you cannot take any criticism in this field, you won’t make it very far.

I’m making sure new traders, who will just about believe anything nowadays, don’t form false opinions and bad habits because of threads like this. You’re entitled to your opinions, and I assume you’ll stick to them adamantly. But I am entitled to mine.

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Nobody’s questioning that: he’s 21, a student, educated, intelligent, articulate and interested in trading - [I]clearly[/I] he has potential.

But in my opinion he’d also be well advised to accept that if he comes to a trading forum and lays down his own rules for trading, when experienced traders who’ve been making a living this way for many years disgree with many of them, we’re probably going to say so; there’s not much point in throwing toys out of the pram when we do.

Sorry if it sounds “harsh”, but that’s how forums work, and it’s part of their value to aspiring traders, too.

20

I atually checked the fundamentals on the boj and technicals on usd jpy to determine that trade. My original plan was to hold since I anticipated a test of 17000 but never past the previous march high.