The Return of Alphahavoc II

[Trendswithbenefits]

@alphahavoc, I see you have decided to utilise… an MA Slope Oscillator (with Signal)… makes the chaotic mess of candles and glut of MA’s on the chart look far to complicated for mere mortals to choose a definite market direction…

Backtest how much more profitable you would have been just trading off the Oscillator’s arrow signal…

Just have to tweak the periods and MAType to get a smooth accurate colour change (ie: EURCHF)

So, so simple…

Buy the way… Alpha unfortunately overlooked sharing this great Indicator with all of us so I have added the link FREE download.

[alphahavoc]

26 SEPT 2018
1853HR SGT

Today, I managed to bag 52 pips with my 4 demo trades. I got 4 out of 4 correct. I shall proceed to Live trade soon.

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26 SEPT 2018
2332HR SGT

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[TradeViper]

細佬, welcome back.

A few observations.

1. You need to wipe the slate clean and start over. Learn to read what the market is doing, not what you think it will do.

2. Confirm your context. Whatever that system is that you are using did not keep you out of those bad Yuppy trades, you need to learn how to read patterns, and overall market direction. A good trader can out trade a “system” anyday.

3. Get a handle on your emotions, if you are doing this for any other reason than to make money, you will fail.

4. Leverage: trade at the us$ equivalent of .01, until you have at least 6 months success, I would normally recommend 1 yr, but since you have been bouncing around here a bit the 1 yr may not be needed

5. 3.5 % on all trades as an aggregate

6. Your hedging concept is not done in the professional world, it is worthless.

7. Stop trying to reinvent the wheel, learn about the pair you are trading, watch it till you understand how it moves.

8. Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your
   own.

   Knowing is not enough, we must apply. Willing is not enough, we must do.

   “Showing off is the fool’s idea of glory.”

   “A quick temper will make a fool of you soon enough.”

I strongly recommend taking all of those indicators off of your charts, then put only one, LRC set at 22, and then just watch until it makes sense, and you can see the moves. practice drawing trend-lines and channels until you see them in you mind without drawing them. Then work on drawing levels till you can see them the same way as the trends. Start with a daily fractal, and work down to 15min, identifying trends and levels. This is a good base for attempting more advanced techniques.

The Ever Aware VIPER

“Fear comes from uncertainty; we can eliminate the fear within us when we know ourselves better. As the great Sun Tzu said: “When you know yourself and your opponent, you will win every time. When you know yourself but not your opponent, you will win one and lose one. However, when you do not know yourself or your opponent, you will be imperiled every time.”

PS algos

WTI Algos Confused Despite Surprise Crude, Gasoline Builds

[alphahavoc]

27 SEPT 2018
0227HR SGT

It seems that i’m off to a good start! My 1st 4 live trades managed to hit my targets.

@TradeViper

A few observations.

You need to wipe the slate clean and start over. Learn to read what the market is doing, not what you think it will do.

Confirm your context. Whatever that system is that you are using did not keep you out of those bad Yuppy trades, you need to learn how to read patterns, and overall market direction. A good trader can out trade a “system” anyday.

Get a handle on your emotions, if you are doing this for any other reason than to make money, you will fail.

Leverage: trade at the us$ equivalent of .01, until you have at least 6 months success, I would normally recommend 1 yr, but since you have been bouncing around here a bit the 1 yr may not be needed

3.5 % on all trades as an aggregate

Your hedging concept is not done in the professional world, it is worthless.

Stop trying to reinvent the wheel, learn about the pair you are trading, watch it till you understand how it moves.

Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your

own.

Knowing is not enough, we must apply. Willing is not enough, we must do.

“Showing off is the fool’s idea of glory.”

“A quick temper will make a fool of you soon enough.”

I strongly recommend taking all of those indicators off of your charts, then put only one, LRC set at 22, and then just watch until it makes sense, and you can see the moves. practice drawing trend-lines and channels until you see them in you mind without drawing them. Then work on drawing levels till you can see them the same way as the trends. Start with a daily fractal, and work down to 15min, identifying trends and levels. This is a good base for attempting more advanced techniques.

The Ever Aware VIPER

“Fear comes from uncertainty; we can eliminate the fear within us when we know ourselves better. As the great Sun Tzu said: “When you know yourself and your opponent, you will win every time. When you know yourself but not your opponent, you will win one and lose one. However, when you do not know yourself or your opponent, you will be imperiled every time.”

Thanks Viper. I’ll constantly remind myself all of your advice. I’ll re-look Linear regression Channel from a multi timeframe perspective as well.

27 SEPT 2018
0310HR SGT

My 5th USDJPY trade hit target as well. After hitting my target, price promptly retraced back to my entry point. I’m entering another long position again.

[anon58863749]

@TradeViper Excellent observations, analysis and senior’s friendly advice.

[alphahavoc]

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Trade review 26/27 SEPT 2018

My Total 0.01 lot Long GBPCAD had an average price level at 1.70878, hit target at an average price level of 1.70740 (+38.9pips), Maximum drawdown reached 1.70740 (-13.8pips). Risk : Reward ratio 1 : 2.81 , I have highlighted the average positions level with blue horizontal line on the chart above.

My Total 0.01 lot Long USDCAD had an average price level at 1.29710, hit target at an average price level of 1.29850 (+14pips), Maximum drawdown reached 1.29600 (-11pips). Risk : Reward ratio 1 : 1.27 , I have highlighted the average positions level with blue horizontal line on the chart above.

My 0.005 lot Long USDJPY at price level at 112.923, hit target at price level 113.051 (+12.8pips), Maximum drawdown reached 112.900 (-2.3pips). Risk : Reward ratio 1 : 5.56 , I have highlighted the average positions level with blue horizontal line on the chart above.

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[TradeViper]

多謝 S.

The Sometimes Offshore VIPER

[alphahavoc]

27 SEPT 2018
0357HR SGT

My current USDJPY Trade is hedged between 112.693 and 112.768 with a floating loss of -23 pips (≈ $10.48).

Linear regression channel on both 15min and 30min charts are showing bearish momentum. However, Regression band are showing mixed sentiments on both 15min and 30min charts . I would stay out of USDJPY trade for the time being.

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27 SEPT 2018
1908HR SGT

27 SEPT 2018
1942HR SGT

I just entered a 3rd Long 0.005 lot GBPCAD at 1.71505, target 1.71661, stop loss 1.71199

Use of leverage : 4%

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Trade review 27 SEPT 2018

My Total 0.015 lot Long GBPCAD had an average price level at 1.71581, hit target at an average price level of 1.71798 (+21.7 pips), Maximum drawdown reached 1.70740 (-15.9 pips). Risk : Reward ratio 1 : 1.36 , I have highlighted the average positions level with blue horizontal line on the chart above.

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28 SEPT 2018
0121HR SGT

28 SEPT 2018
0800HR SGT

Both of my GBPUSD and GBPJPY Shorts managed to hit 1st target. Current Buy stop order for both remaining GBPUSD and GBPJPY Shorts were adjusted to lock in profit at close to break even level.

Use of current leverage : 3%

GBPUSD look rather sluggish, i decided to closed position manually. My buy stop order for GBPJPY was changed to a stop loss order instead at 148.501, locking in profits at close to break even level.

Use of leverage : 1%

28 SEPT 2018
0909HR SGT

2 more 0.005 lot GBPJPY shorts were entered at 148.410 price, 1st target 148.299, 2nd target 148.199, buy stop orders at 148.501

My latest two short 0.005 lot GBPJPY just got hedged at 148.501. I have merged both 0.005 lot short GBPJPY into one short 0.01 lot GBPJPY. Currently, hedged at 148.510 with a -10pips floating loss (- $10.54)

28 SEPT 2018
1200 HR SGT

Just added 2 Short 0.01 lot GBPUSD at 1.30770, 1st target 1.30699, 2nd target 1.30599, stop loss 1.30901

Use of leverage : 6%

Took my 1st hit of the week, i had a total of 0.02 lot short GBPUSD opened at 1.30775, hit stop loss at 1.30901. My lucky streak just came to a halt. The most irritating part was that price hit my stop loss, promptly reverse and hit my 1st target. My stop loss was too tight.

As i had promised to myself, i shall go back to demo trading, obtain a positive result, before i return to live trading again.

28 SEPT 2018
1538HR SGT
Demo trades

Shorted 2 position of GBPUSD, 1st target 1.30599, 2nd target 1.30499, stop loss 1.30901

28 SEPT 2018
1647HR SGT

I managed to score 2 wins for my GBPUSD demo trades. I’m returning to live trade again.

1759HR SGT

Just enter a 3rd 0.01 lot long USDJPY.

29 SEPT 2018
0110HR SGT

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Trade review 28 SEPT 2018

My Total 0.02 lot Long USDJPY had an average price level at 113.455, hit target at an average price level of 113.528 (+7.3pips), Maximum drawdown reached 113.316 (-13.9pips). Risk : Reward ratio 1.90 : 1 , I have highlighted the average positions level with blue horizontal line on the chart above.

Trade review 29 SEPT 2018

My 0.02 lot Long CADCHF at price level at 0.75494, hit target at price level 0.75541 (+4.7pips), Maximum drawdown reached 0.75460 (-3.4pips). Risk : Reward ratio 1 : 1.38 , I have highlighted the average positions level with blue horizontal line on the chart above.

[Arobun]

Sad to hear this ugly losses Alph. It must be extreme frustrating experience. I know you, you’re human, you make mistakes but you never give up and a very good helper.

When you bump to my silly baby journal, you became my first favourite trader here in Babypips, ever.

The Ever Loving Arobun.

[alphahavoc]

No worries, that was just my last error. I have move on already. And because of my final glitch, i installed a risk management plan of going back to demo trading the moment i hit ONE loss. I had this thought in the past for a long time, but never execute it. I’m finally doing it this time round.

By the way, it appears to me, you are quite a talented scalper. Just a word of caution, you may want to work on your Max drawdown versus reward. You are trading without a stop loss. That’s how i snapped the last time round.

Eventually, you will encounter a huge Max drawdown beast and all the positive pips will go down the drain in an instant. The last time round i also have this refusal to accept that i was wrong in my analysis for EURJPY, which contributed to my downfall as well. I was like a stick in the mud.

There are 3 ways to handle drawdown.

1st is a tight stop like 1:3 or 2:1 risk reward ratio. ( easiest )

2nd is a stop loss like 1Atr or 2Atr away, complement with a bit of averaging to mitigate risk.

3rd is a hedge position at say 0.5 Atr or 1Atr and releasing it appropriately at a certain time price level. ( The hardest skill to acquire )

[alphahavoc]

This is one of the most valuable moment of my life. Having Lunch with my parents. I hardly have time to catch up with them nowadays. Now, my only wish is for them to see my success in Forex trading. Time is seriously running out for me.

[Arobun]

Aww, thanks for your compliment. I never thought I’m that good.

I’m glad how you’re ready to back up soon without fear of losing further. Love that courage.
I appreciate how you noticed my weak points, drawdown is so bad in the last two trades and ofcourse that’s without SL as usual. I can’t believe that it’s 17 green bucks in the row without SL since beginning except last open trade but it will be just fine looking in next week according to my mind with bigger chart.

I know I can’t handle or alive when I go live that way. I’ll make plan for SL and TS order soon after I earn more knowledge in pipsology.

You know I just merged your solutions of my drawdown to these three beautiful faces: easiest solution must be from you (love you for that), hardest solution must be from your father. And your mom, yeah, gentle push.

[alphahavoc]

My Risk : Reward ratio for the week is 1 : 1.39

(Data obtained from my Daily Trade review summary)

My Profit factor from a daily perspective is
( 34.07 + 68.74 ) / ( 25.85 + 0.24) = 3.94

Maximum drawdown is from my 0.02 lot Long USDJPY on the 28 Sept 2018 .
-13.9 pips ≈ $24.48

($24.48/ $2168.18) x 100% = 1.11%
( Using account balance from 27 Sept 2018 )

Current equity gain is 3.71%
( Based on starting balance on the 25th Sept 2018 )

1st OCT 2018
0835HR SGT

Visited the Doc this morning, diagnosed with food poisoning. Having fever and tummy ache now. Last night, i attended my friend’s wedding dinner. It was the grandest one i have ever attended. There was 120 table, more than 1000 people. The food was amazing. Due to my greed, i ate too much. Now, i’m suffering the consequence of my action. On my way home, i entered a scalp trade. Rain or Shine, the fight continues.

I hit target!

I can’t take it anymore. My tummy hurts like hell. Just finish taking my medicine. I’m going to take rest now.

1st OCT 2018
2150HR SGT

Just hit my targets at 1.15949

1st OCT 2018
2354HR SGT

[TradeViper]

Alph, Rule #125 “You can’t make a deal if you’re dead.” Rule # 126 “never trade while you are sick”

The Ever Navigating The Great Material Continuum VIPER

[alphahavoc]

No worries Vipe,

I have been sleeping all day. Fever has come down a bit.

Just closed out my hedge position Long GBPJPY from 148.50 at 148.555, +4pips. Holding my short GBPJPY with target at break even level, 148.389, stop loss set at 149.301. The Stop loss for my Short EURUSD were downgraded to 1.15101

2 OCT 2018
0101HR SGT

Just added another 0.012 lot short EURUSD, target 1.15599, stop loss 1.16101

2 Oct 2018
0701HR SGT

stop loss for EURUSD upgraded to 1.16201

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Took this while i’m having breakfast. The kind of scene that keeps me moving forward.

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2nd OCT 2018
1145HR SGT

I removed the stop loss at 149.301 for my 0.01 lot short GBPJPY, and change to a buy stop order at 148.801 price level instead.

For my 0.022 lot EURUSD entered at 1.15963 price level, i downgraded the stop loss level from 1.16301 to 1.15901. To protect profit at close to break even level.

I had another 0.012 lot EURUSD entered at 1.15700, i removed the stop loss at 1.16301 price level, and changed it to a buy stop order at 1.15901 price level.

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Trade Review 2 OCT 2018

My 0.022 lot Long USDJPY at price level 113.778 hit target at price level 113.811 (+3.3pips), Maximum drawdown was 113.757 (-2.1pips). Risk : Reward ratio 1 : 1.57 , I have highlighted the average positions level with blue horizontal line on the chart above.

My 0.01 lot Long GBPJPY at price level at 148.507 was manually closed at price level 148.555 (+4.8pips), Maximum drawdown was hedged with a short GBPJPY position at 148.389 (-11.8pips). Risk : Reward ratio 2.45 : 1 , I have highlighted the average positions level with blue horizontal line on the chart above.

My 0.01 lot Short GBPJPY at price level 148.389 was closed at break even price level 148.389 (+0.7pips), Maximum drawdown was hedged with a Long GBPJPY at 148.507 and additional drawdown up to 148.720(-33.1pips). Risk : Reward ratio 47 : 1 , I have highlighted the average positions level with blue horizontal line on the chart above.

My Total 0.088 lot Short EURUSD had an average price level at 1.15901, was closed at an average price level of 1.15782 (+11.9pips), Maximum drawdown reached 1.16110 (-20.9pips). Risk : Reward ratio 1.75 : 1 , I have highlighted the average positions level with blue horizontal line on the chart above.

My 0.012 lot Short EURUSD at price level 1.15701 hit target at price level 1.15599 (+10.2pips), Maximum drawdown was 1.15800 (-9.9pips). Risk : Reward ratio 1 : 1.03 , I have highlighted the average positions level with blue horizontal line on the chart above.

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My Long Short hedged GBPJPY from last week finally ended on a positive note, Long GBPJPY gained +4.8pips, Short GBPJPY breakeven with +0.7pips

My USDJPY hedged positions is still open at the moment, as USD is still strong with no signs of weakening yet, thus no opportunity for me to release the hedge.

2 OCT 2018
2127HR SGT

2148HR SGT

My NZDCAD trade doesn’t feel right. I’m upgrading my buy stop order to stop loss order at 85.101 price level.

2238HR SGT

I’m removing my sell stop orders for CADJPY as well, and setting a stop loss at 88.099 to accommodate room for drawdown.

2328HR SGT

Just closed my Long USDJPY hedge position at 113.596. My short USDJPY targets at break even price level. A buy stop order for USDJPY is set at 113.801. A 2nd short USDJPY was input at 113.624 as well.

2358HR SGT

My two 0.005 lot short USDJPY has been merged into one 0.01 lot USDJPY, targets at break even level 113.121, 0.01 lot buy stop order in place at 113.801

3 oct 2018
0103HR SGT

i just cancelled my buy stop order for USDJPY and placed a stop loss order at 114.101 instead.

3 OCT 2018
1348HR SGT

One of my NZDCAD shorts manage to hit 1st target earlier. I had a feeling that USDJPY and CADJPY might be correlated, and when checked the correlation chart from myfxbook, i realised that they 92% positively correlated. Thus, having one short CADJPY and long USDJPY is not going to get me anywhere. I need to make a choice and decided to hedge my USDJPY once again. According to the 15mins chart, CADJPY appears to be more bullish than USDJPY.

3 OCT 2018
2247SGT

My Short NZDCAD positions manage to hit both 1st and 2nd target. Long CADJPY position just hit 1st target, now awaiting to hit 2nd targets. I downgraded stoploss to 88.499 as well.

4 OCT 2018
0408HR SGT

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Trade Review
4 OCT 2018

My Total 0.024 lot Short NZDCAD had an average price level at 0.84437, was closed at an average price level of 0.84291 (+14.6pips), Maximum drawdown reached 0.84727 (-29pips). Risk : Reward ratio 1.98 : 1 , I have highlighted the average positions level with blue horizontal line on the chart above.

My 0.012 lot Long CADJPY at price level 88.780 hit target at price level 88.972 (+19.2pips), Maximum drawdown was 88.467 (-31.3pips). Risk : Reward ratio 1.63 : 1 , I have highlighted the average positions level with blue horizontal line on the chart above.

My 0.012 lot Long CADJPY at price level 88.781 was closed at price level 88.882(+10.1pips), Maximum drawdown was 88.467 (-31.4pips). Risk : Reward ratio 3.10 : 1 , I have highlighted the average positions level with blue horizontal line on the chart above.

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0450HR SGT

Just added a 3rd NZDCAD short.

0500HR SGT

Woah! At 0500HR SGT, the spread for NZDCAD suddenly widen by about 17pips. Luckily, i was watching over my trades. I quickly removed my stop loss.

One of my NZDCAD position managed to hit 1st target. I have also adjusted my stop loss to 0.84601 level, so as to have some buffer for widening of spread phenomena.

Wow, this is a realization moment for me on why we shouldn’t use tight stop loss, if it is not a scalp trade.

0525HR SGT

Just downgraded my stop loss for NZDCAD short to 0.84301, with consideration for widening of spread.

4 OCT 2018
1454HR SGT

Both my NZDCAD position are closed at 0.83699

My fever came back, my nose is like a running water tap. I’m going to stop trading for now until next week. Tomorrow’s NFP day, i don’t really want to get involve.

Currently i only have a long and short USDJPY Positions in perfect hedge, which i will deal with later on.

4 OCT 2018
2330HR SGT

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Trade Review
4 OCT 2018

My Total 0.066 lot Short NZDCAD had an average price level at 0.83876, was closed at an average price level of 0.83742 (+13.4pips), Maximum drawdown reached 0.83948 (-7.2pips). Risk : Reward ratio 1 : 1.86 , I have highlighted the average positions level with blue horizontal line on the chart above.

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5 OCT 2018
1509HR SGT

Both of my AUDUSD and NZDCAD positions managed to hit 1st target, the remaining AUDUSD and NZDCAD are still in progress, and going for the 2nd target, Stop loss were downgraded to book profits for my remaining positions as well.

5 OCT 2018
1724HR SGT

My remaining NZDCAD was closed around break even. I decided to close out my remaining AUDUSD position as well. Currently, my remaining position was the USDJPY hedged positions from last week. Which i’m determine to close on a positive note. Current use of leverage is zero%. I will do a trade review later tonight. Right now, I’m still feeling sickly, i visited my neighborhood doctor again and he gave me a stronger version of antibiotic, i hope i can recover by tonight, because tomorrow, i will be attending a market insights conference 2018 at suntec convention centre as an audience. I hope to learn something from it. Below is a screenshot of my result so far.

5 OCT 2018
2336HR SGT

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Trade Review
4 OCT 2018

My Total 0.028 lot Short NZDCAD had an average price level at 0.83676, was closed at an average price level of 0.83600 (+7.6pips), Maximum drawdown reached 0.83774 (-9.8pips). Risk : Reward ratio 1.28 : 1 , I have highlighted the average positions level with blue horizontal line on the chart above.

My Total 0.028 lot Short AUDUSD had an average price level at 0.70863, was closed at an average price level of 0.70633 (+23 pips), Maximum drawdown reached 0.70915 (-5.2pips). Risk : Reward ratio 1 : 4.42 , I have highlighted the average positions level with blue horizontal line on the chart above.

My 0.005 lot Long USDZAR at price level 14.79478 hit target at price level 14.82023 (+254.5 pips), Maximum drawdown reached 14.77442(-203.6 pips). Risk : Reward ratio 1 : 1.25 , I have highlighted the average positions level with blue horizontal line on the chart above.

My Total 0.01 lot Long USDSGD had an average price level at 1.38195, was closed at an average price level of 1.38252 (+5.7 pips), Maximum drawdown reached 1.38172 (-2.3pips). Risk : Reward ratio 1 : 2.47 , I have highlighted the average positions level with blue horizontal line on the chart above.

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[alphahavoc]

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Today, I finally got to meet a Legendary trader of our times, Daryl Guppy!

[Big_Boss]

Still rockin’ that huge moustache

[anon46773462]

Hope it is you lecturing there next year @alphahavoc

[alphahavoc]

Hope it is you lecturing there next year

Very funny…

[alphahavoc]

9 OCT 2018
0031HR SGT

9 OCT 2018
1747HR SGT

Today was a super busy day for me, i barely had time to catch my breath. Anyway, Update on my GBPCAD and CADJPY position from last night. I manage to hit targets for my GBPCAD positions. Unfortunately, i conceded 2 losses for my CADJPY position. It means i have to punish myself and go back to demo trading for a couple of trades.

I decided to continue shorting CADJPY. I believe CADJPY is still bearish. Below are my demo trades for CADJPY

9 OCT 2018
2023HR SGT

I do not know why, but i’m still not in the mood for live trading yet. Maybe, it was due to the hectic work at my workplace today. I haven’t been able to calm myself down yet. Since i’m aware that i’m still psychologically and emotionally perturbed. I shall continue with my demo trades. Just Longed 2 GBPCAD positions. I did managed to hit my 1st target for one of my short CADJPY position earlier.

9 OCT 2018
1131HR SGT

I managed to keep my own promise to myself this time round. I went back to demo trading and made 4 trades, and got 4 trades out of 4 trades correct 100% win. I’m going back to live trading now.

Below are my current positions. I just Long 3 GBPCAD position with 3 targets in mind. On top of that, i managed to closed my USDJPY short at break even price level with a 1 pip profit, and i also added a new Long USDJPY position as well.

What amazing luck i have now! Just as i was posting my results in babypips, 2 of my GBPCAD position hit my 1st and 2nd target almost instantaneously!

Actually earlier, right after i saw that i got 4/4 trades correct. I knew that i was lucky and i can even feel it. I was contemplating whether i should have increased my position size more aggressively, but i decided to hold myself back and stick to my original plan of keeping the use of leverage within the boundaries of 15%.

2359HR SGT
Here’s my new update,

0105HR SGT

Just Longed another 0.02 lot GBPCAD aiming for a 8pip profit.

10 Oct 2018
0231HR SGT
Just got emotionally perturbed… I decided to add another total of 0.04 lot Long GBPCAD of and aiming for a quick hit and run of about 7 or 8 pips profit target.

Use of leverage 22%
I failed to contain my greed.

10 OCT 2018
1127HR SGT

Managed to hit target for lastest GBPCAD positions. Just downgraded my stop loss for my remaining GBPCAD positions to 1.69799

10 OCT 2018
1403 HR SGT
Just hit target for my 0.02 lot GBPCAD. Ptice retraced and i quickly re entered another 0.04 lot GBPCAD aiming for 5 pip gain.

1410HR SGT
i managed to hit target and decided to closed out my remaining GBPCAD positiom as well. Now i only have USDJPY position left running.

1823 HR SGT
just merged 2 of my 0.01 lot USDJPY LONG positions into one 0.02 lot USDJPY LONG. targets at break even level.