The Return of Alphahavoc II

Hey Alph, I have no idea how you are trading. But I do have a question. on your latest update, how long have you have the Yuppy trade open. And how long did it take for your Positive trades to hit their TP’s.

The Ever Wondering VIPER

1 Like

11 OCT 2018
1227HR SGT

This is the 3rd week! My patience is beginning to run out. I’m giving it my ultimatum. I’m going to set and forget this one now. Just entered a equal lot size position aiming to average it at break even level. Basically, hedging and averaging is really BS. I have to admit it now. It really isn’t my kind of trading. However, i’m going to see this trade thru to the end. I have set the targets at break even level and stop loss at 112.399 . After this trade, i’m never going to hedge and average again. Wrong means wrong, right means right. If my stop loss get hit, i’ll Look for another trading opportunity. I’m really more of a hit and run type of scalper.

0315HR SGT

i just closed my USDJPY trade at 112.450 price level. I have taken another loss. Therefore, i’m going back to demo trades.

However, the problem now is not that i had lost my USDJPY trade.I damn pissed off with myself. It is damn stupid of me to hold USDJPY for 3 weeks just to closed it with a loss. I’m very angry with myself and i am definitely not in the right state of mind to trade. For now, I will trade demo account again.

3 Likes

Damn, now I feel kinda guilty. I’ve been casually browsing your thread for about a week or two, but wasn’t paying close enough attention to see your USDJPY position. If I had known, I could have warned you about the cluster of highly significant resistances around these prices. It was one of the best sell signals I’ve seen in weeks

435345345

I admire your ability to know when to take a step back and cool off. There’s nothing worse than turning a bad situation into a horrific one

1 Like

11 OCT 2018
1500 HR SGT

1643HR SGT

Just added one more GBPNZD position.

1844HR SGT

I have failed to achieve an overall positive result for my demo trades. Thus, i shall continue with demo trading until i obtain an overall positive result before i go Live trading again. Even though i got 3 trades out of 5 correct, overall gain is a negative one.

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Now my youngest son awaits in the classroom for his Nursery Kindergarden graduation performance

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1946HR SGT

Just re-enter another 2 GBPNZD position.

12 OCT 2018
0324 HR SGT

My negative overall streak continues. It seems that my luck ran out. Who says trader doesn’t need Luck. That would be foolish. It is the ability to lose less when we are unlucky and win big when we are lucky that makes a difference in a trader’s career.

I lost another big one on GBPNZD. :man_facepalming:

Just shorted 3 position on USDJPY.

It seems that i’m stuck with Demo trading for the time being.

12 OCT 2018
0838HR SGT

I have added 3 EURUSD long positions.
1st target 116.101
2nd target 116.201
3rd target 116. 301
stoploss 115.299

Update on previous USDJPY shorts
1st target 111.899
2nd target 111.899
3rd target 111.799
stoploss 112.501

1023HR SGT
Update on USDJPY shorts
1st and 2nd target 111.999
2nd target 111.899
stop loss 112.501

1333HR SGT
Update on USDJPY

STOPLOSS adjusted to 112.801

1349HR SGT
One EURUSD hit target,
Re–enter another EURUSD long position.
target 116.101, stoploss 115.399

1403HR SGT
EURUSD STOPLOSS 115.499
USDJPY STOPLOSS 112.501

1416HR SGT
Just closed all my EURUSD long. Re-entered 3 short EURUSD positions.

1434HR SGT

Just closed all my USDJPY position as well. Added another 2 EURUSD short positions.

1442HR SGT

Added 3 long GBPCHF positions.

2 Likes

Very interesting journal, especially the in-between pictures of your family life. Seems as though you are very family oriented, and that’s a good thing to see. Best wishes for future trades.

1 Like

12 OCT 2018
1513HR SGT
Update for EURUSD stoploss level all position downgraded to 116.301

細佬, a question, are you sure the trading system you are using has “positive expectancy”. Also, you have a stop at 1.1630 on the euro/usd??? :scream:

The Ever Quizzical VIPER

image

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I agree with TradeViper,

the trading system you might be implementing might not have a positive expectancy. I noticed you have multiple trades which will enlarge your losses if they go against you.

I learnt my mistake and have adopted a swing trading approach since I have outside obligations in life now and keeps my life balance without overdoing. :smiley:

細佬, I finally figured it out. After looking closely at the charts you are using, I realized you are using the GFK Forex Indicator. I would strongly recommend you stop using this, it has not helped your trading. I compared where it has you entering on my charts and is has you entering in pure chop, and ignoring the mini and micro trends that a short term trader needs to be able to identify. Your practice of giving yourself a “TimeOut” when you have negative trades would be valid “IF” the system was valid, it is my belief it is not. Also the "TimeOuts should be based on breaking the rules, not the performance. Now this having been said, I don’t know two things, are you holding longer than you should and does the GFK require messing around with stops.

I still have a ton of EOY paperwork to handle tonight and tomorrow, but I might have some time to throw up some charts later this weekend.

The Ever Coaching VIPER

3 Likes

I guess not. Have been loosely entering my position. Last week, my will to wait for setup seem rather weak. Will buck up this week. Fortunately, i’m demo trading at the moment.

You are spot on. Somehow, i wasn’t really in the mood to trade. The Risk management part was rather underrun.

Noted.

I was sort of taking it easy with my demo trade last week. After i hit one small chunk of losses with my USDJPY live trade last week. I was quite angry. There was actually a point in time, when i could have gotten out with a small lost, but i hesitated and decided to hold it out till i hit my stop loss. I refuse the opportunity to bail out because, i’ll have to punish myself and go back to demo trading, so i decided to hold it out or closed it at break even level. Price decided to go for my stop loss. After that, i was frustrated and loosely entered all my demo trades. Later on, when i saw my demo results was so bad. I felt zapped of energy, my motivation to push myself for better results was lost.

When i loosely entered my position for my demo trade, in my mind, i was thinking this " Let’s test my luck, i wonder if i will be lucky. " Well, i got my answer.

I will attempt to perform well on my demo this week. Stay tuned.

In a nutshell, I got emotional when i lost one live trade. Thereafter, i was attempting to get lucky with my demo trades so that i could go back to live trading again. All my demo trades was loosely entered. When i saw my demo results was so bad, that further demotivated me to continue trading.

I’m beginning to realise that my mental state of mind often fluctuates between very rational and irrational state. I’m starting to become more aware of my own behaviour now. It seems that there is no control. After a period of being cool and steady, somehow i need to behave destructively, otherwise i will feel very nervy. After behaving badly, only then could i return to behaving rationally. That’s me. I wonder if it is the same for everyone else. When i’m behaving irrationally, it would be wise to stay out of live trading. In the past, i wasn’t aware, i thought i’ll be able to control my irrational state and i tried very hard to control it, but the harder i attempt to control the beast, it just got worse.

I think it is important for everyone to find a means to vent their frustration when they are feeling down, and only return to live trading when the mental stability is back.

After noting down all of my thoughts in babypips, i felt better already! I’m attaining NIRVANA! :sunglasses:

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I will be taking part in Dukascopy’s weekly FX contest soon. Thus, i have decided to create a demo account just for warm up. The contest structure seems to have changed. It seems to only rate the contestant purely by PnL basis.

Nonetheless, I will also continue to managed my previous demo account as well, and once i managed to achieve a positive result. Only then will i allow myself to touch my Live account again.

However, the Dukascopy’s FX contest now require us to trade a live account instead of demo account for their contest. Thus, i will be transferring $500 USD into the contest live account to compete with other contestant.

Over the past 2 weeks, my deliberate attempt to force myself to trade demo seems to have empowered me in terms of curbing my trigger happy fingers.

Anyway, here is my 1st trade for the contest warmup demo account. I decided to go long for NZDCHF with 0.05 lot. Per pip is ≈ $0.35 . The stop loss level is about 30pips away and projected targets level is about 10pips away. 30pips is about $10.50, and that is about 2.1% of my $500 USD equity. Let’s hope i will be able to maintain my rational state of mind throughout the contest.

As demonstrated by the chart above, prices of NZDCHF is trading above EMA200 (blue line), trading above the red line (daily open). My impression on NZDCHF is bullish.

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Thanks Alpha!

I have noted down this adaptation of yours and will effect it immediately I go live.

Imagine you had not gone back to Demo, all of those Loosely entered trades would have been on your live account. I think it’s called “Revenge Trading” and a good way to avoid that is going back to Demo.

I think I will open another Demo Account and treat the first as live just to implement this.

Once again Thank you!!!

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Yup, imagine that. I wonder how much i would have lost. Trading demo does reduce the stress significantly. It takes time to heal psychological trauma. While trading demo, my rationality slowly recovered. It also gave me time to review my strategy and further improve on it.

While i was doing demo this time round, due to rrram2 influence, i attempted my way of contrarian trading and it went well. The result look so nice. My mind become even more cool and rational.

Anyway, my curfew is over. I managed obtain a positive result for my demo account. Thus, i’m back to live trading again. At present, i’m managing 2 account, one is my contest live account, and the other one is my original live account.

I think USDZAR is bearish so i’m shorting it.

Upon entry i managed close one of my shorts for around 200pips. price quickly retraced, i shorted again aiming for another 200pips on USDZAR.

Just downgraded my USDZAR stoploss to 14.25100

I managed to hit target for one of my USDZAR shorts. Price retraced and i shorted again aiming for about 150pips.

0103 HR SGT

Just downgraded my NZDCHF stoploss to 0.65899

0119 HR SGT

Just shorted a GBPJPY position. Based on the chart below, i believe GBPJPY is bearish.

2 Likes

Do you have selected pairs you look at, analyse and trade? Or do you just look at multiple pairs and trade any opportunity seen?

I need to know you share the pair signal on start of london open time or new york open time ?

My pair selection is based on Dennis’s idea of SW pairing chart. I look for a currency that move up or down in rank and pair it with currency that move up or down in rank in the opposing direction. After i have selected the currency pair that i want to trade, i use technical analysis to interpret if that particular pair is doing a pullback or trend continuation. After which, i will decide if i want to counter trend or follow trend. Normally, if i interpret prices as doing a pullback, i will counter trend trade, and if price is in a trend continuation phase after a breakout. I will use a trend following system to time my entry.

However, instead of using JPY as the common denominator, i use USD as the common denominator and rank them accordingly. The reason why i use USD instead of JPY is so that i can easily add 4 other currency into my SW chart.

Namely, TRY, MXN, ZAR, SGD .

Below is a screenshot of my SW chart.

There are various ways to interpret the chart. At present, i’m still in the mist of optimizing my way of interpreting the SW chart. I’m still experimenting as per se. The hard part is not the chart construct, it is the accurate interpretation of whether a currency is going up or down. Sometimes, the ranking of SW chart and technical analysis simply doesn’t tally. Which explain why i counter trend till my account got busted. It seems to still best to just follow the trend. We can only make our best attempt to interpret the market, when market trend gets choppy, every interpretation just get baffling.

If you follow my thread, you will realize that i’m a pretty hardcore trader. i’m basically trading every market session 24/7. In Singapore, my evening time is around New york and London overlapped session. I usually do my pair selection around that session. Most of my signal is after the closing of London session. I have a day job, thus i can only do my technical analysis during the evening timing.

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Here’s is an update on my progress,

Previously, i busted my $500 account. I reloaded a $2000 on the 25th Sept 2018. My equity grow from a starting balance of $2065 to $2525 on the 10 Oct 2018. After that i was stuck with demo trading for a while. On the 17th Oct 2018, i transferred $500 to my Dukascopy’s Live FX trader contest account. I sustained a huge -$233 losses from my USDZAR trade on the 17th Oct 2018. Needless to say, my contest account also went into the red on the same day. For my contest account, the day end balance was $430. Today, i managed to re-gained my losses from GBPJPY short trade.

Current live account balance : $2231
Current contest account balance : $510

Net profit from my starting balance of $2065 to date were,
(2231+510) - 2065 = $676
(676/2065) x 100% = 32.7%
(my current equity gain since 25th Sept 2018 till 18 Oct 2018)

Today was an quite emotionally turbulent day for me. Yesterday, i lost a huge chunk of my money due to USDZAR trade. Based on my previous self-imposed trading tilt breaker rule , i was supposed to trade demo if i were to lose One trade. But, i was in a contest and i don’t want to lose. My mind was torn apart as to whether i should continue trading or not. Eventually, i gave in to the Devil and continue to trade both of my live account and contest live account. The excuse i gave myself was technically the GBPJPY short seems too good to give it a pass. GBPJPY did crash today, and i’m glad i didn’t stop trading today.

On hindsight, i just realized it was damn troublesome to keep login in and out to enter trades on both account. I need to seriously give some thought over this matter.

It was fortunate that my SW chart didn’t fail me today. Very Lucky… I’m glad Lady Luck is on my side today. I sincerely thank the Great Heavenly forces up there giving me the chance to recoup my losses from the USDZAR trade. :bowing_man:

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My personal live account portfolio statement is above

My contest account portfolio statement is below

Below is a sceenshot of my current ranking in Dukascopy’s Live FX trader contest.

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19 OCT 2018

0217HR SGT

0225HR SGT

Just upgraded my stop loss to 1.75810. Reason is due to my prior experience with NZD pairs, which i often encounter widening of spread issues during Sydney market opening hours. I added 20pips buffer to my stop loss.

0727HR SGT
Due to an increase in daily volatility. I upgraded my stoploss price level to 1.76110 ( Wednesday Daily HIGH )

1054HR SGT
Every trade is going according to plan. Lady luck is once again on my side. :innocent:

1413HR SGT
THAT’S IT ! I’M DONE FOR THE WEEK. ALL POSITION CLOSED.

Below is a screenshot of my personal live account portfolio statement.

Below is a screenshot of my live fx trader contest account portfolio statement.

Below is a screenshot of my current ranking for the contest.

The prize money for 4th and 3rd placing is only $10 difference. I’m not going to make any more trades today. Hopefully, no other contestant can overtake my Pnl% .

It is a LIVE account trading contest. i doubt anyone will be crazy enough to take high risk approach for just a mere $300 top spot position.

Furthermore, the contest ends tonight.
" A new Contest takes place every week and lasts only one week, starting market opening on Sunday 21:00/22:00 GMT until Friday 21:00/22:00 GMT (summer/winter time). "

I’m second place now!!! :joy:

CD1V1 and Dukfxx continues to fight for top spot and they crashed! :joy:

Please continue to stay down!

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2200HR SGT

Chill time. Now that i don’t have to trade. i wonder what i should do. Everyone have gone to sleep in my family. Now i set up my laptop with some coffee and biscuits. It is so quiet, i rarely have moments like this. It felt so good. Some peace amd tranquility. Hopefully, it can last this way till morning. Nevertheless, i’m still on standby for the hospital, upon activation, i will have to rush back for work.

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Damn! i’m back to 4th position. I’m not going to trade. These guys can go fight all they want. There is no point in fighting till the last moment. I still think it is best to quit while ahead. 7 hours and the contest ends. Profitability is never guaranteed in the short run. We need still Luck to emerge the winner end of the day. The way i see it. Obtaining 20% gain on a LIVE account in one week is extremely hard to achieve. Gaining more than that will require the trader to risk even more. We are talking about live account here. This ain’t no demo. What are these guys thinking? I thought i have control issues. I guess it is not only me. Lucky for fx211pips, he has already chill out. His chart line is all flat… :rofl: If only my USDZAR trade had turn out well 2 days ago. i might have overtaken him.

2 Likes

can you tell me how can I follow your signals as I am from pakistan and singapore is 3 hours ahead from our timings is there not any possibility that you send me your signals too via pm or some other medium ?

Hi manzour,

Forex trading is not as simple as you think. If you are not a trader, even by following a profitable trader’s signal does not guarantee you profitability. There are many aspect to profitability. Money management would be one major aspect to being profitable in forex. I’m a discretionary trader, i may change my opinion of a trade in a moment’s notice and i may not be able to signal anybody in time. I believe following another’s signal can be more harmful than following one’s own trading plan, because only you will know what you are really doing. Nobody will understand your strategy better than your own self.

My trade journal in babypips is for the sole purpose of doing self reflection for myself. Please do not follow my signal blindly. Sometimes, i don’t even have time to update the journal due to my busy schedule, and when i do update my edited stoploss, it may already be too late for anyone to follow.

Nevertheless, i usually will have an opinion of a particular pair at around the closing hours of London session. My opinon will last till the next US session opening hours. You may take reference from my trade at your own risk. I not charging anyone for a fee or anything. Please use your own discretion, when following my trades, and follow it at your own risk. I don’t want to be responsible for your losses.

As i’m typing away, i just Long a USDCAD trade for my contest account, despite all the big talk about not trading anymore. My itchy finger simply can’t stand staying on the sidelines. It is handling a drawdown at the moment. Now i can only pray. :sweat:
" May the forces be with me! "

I am really thankful to you for your kind and most importantly honest reply and I already know forex is not the easy game and also following the some one else signals is also not going to be a winning game but still based upon your result I want to hear your opinions on your trades that what you are planning to buy or sell today in UK session or in USA session and I will just take your consideration by accepting the outcome with a hope you can understand me.
As I am lacking in technica analysis and I will be really helpful to you if you can guide me on that which I know is also not going to a easy task or can be learned in 24 hours or so