The Trader's Arms 2nd Floor

Nice to see you posting again ST. LOL… met the old ST a few days ago (Roger Moore).
Cheltenham literary festival is in full swing… oh, and Piers Bronson (James Bond/ 007 no less). One of my sons works as a waiter in restuarant just across the road whilst in college and met lots of literary types. 50 shades of Grey he was particulary frank about… told the author it didn’t warm up until about page 120) Every ones a critic, LOL!!! I hesitate, lest I name drop but J K R (Harry Potter books) dined there and he didn’t know who she was! LOL!!! Only realising when the manager pointed it out. She took it well and said it was nice ‘not’ to be recognised and gave him a £20 tip!

Hmm… on to more somber matters. Looking to EU short term its long. But looking to D2 its reaching the high. So on balance, I’m short off around 2950 if it gets that high.

I suspect not accepting a spike high for the all important stops. :smiley: So short off 2931 for a day trade.

LOL!! :18: Of course you can call me that Aesthetic, don’t you know?..I’m Ya Boy !!!

However, on a more serious note, your second point about EU currently showing a Hammer on the weekly chart. Tinypics picture upload service for some reason isn’t working for me right now so I’m having to upload this direct from my pc, hope it comes out clear enough;


This is what I’m seeing on the EU weekly chart. Now obviously the last candle is THIS WEEK’S candle so I take, and yes, it is in the shape of a Hammer, so I take it that is what you are talking about, but that ISN’T a Hammer Aesthetic…do you know why ???..

To be honest RC, I’m struggling to see where I would get involed in the EU at all right now. Mind you, that is probably because I’ve missed the start of any move and now won’t jump in just for the sake of jumping in.

(oh now tinypics has decided to work)

Having said that, I might want to watch New York to see if it takes EU up to 1-30, just for my “mirror” theory. Would probably demo it, just because it ain’t real money, just to see what happens.

But never mind all of that trading nonsense, check you out, Hob-nobbing with the stars.

Hhmmmm, on the subject of Hob-nobs…

Hi RC yes, I’m around - bit of a jolt in my attention as I returned to intraday trading last month, so needed to adjust my routine a little, but I’m around now.

Very jealous of the Roger Moore meeting, I’m a bit of a fan, have seen all his stuff, love that period of British television, might even pick up a P1800 some day. My mother is in Cheltenham and she never mentioned!

Morning! This is an interesting (well, maybe!) thought on EUR/USD that chimes with your chart - we could be seeing the start of a falling channel on the Daily, and my proposed top line, where we might get a reversal, is just above 1.3000 and coincides with the 61.8 Fib level from the recent high to the recent low…


(Now why is that so danged small?! The image interface seems to have changed. The lighter (it’s green) top horizontal line intersecting the wick of the recent green high test is the 61.8 Fib level)

LOL. Ok two things I can think of actually. The lower shadow/wick/pin is not twice the length of the candle body. Secondly its not at the bottom of a down trend so should not be considered?

Not at the bottom of a down move… and together we learn more than being stuck on our own my friend :slight_smile:

Think we may see a test of the 1-30 and the falling down channel soon enough ST.

I just took a demo long @ 1-2978 for no other reason than just to see if the New York session follows the London session.

…Well, obviously it follows the London session, but you know what I mean. Didn’t take this trade on the strength of any candles, any indicators, PA or anything. Took it purely because London moved up, so I want to see if NY moves up.

Wouldn’t follow this strategy in a live account, I’m just interested in this little theory just now. Like I mentioned to RC earlier, that’s what demo accounts are for.

Indeed and me more than you I believe :slight_smile: Thanks

Yep didn’t think it had the legs to get to 1.30. Was too high on the daily as a contra move against the down trend (I’d put current median @ 1.2934). Two short trades opened @ 1.2986 and 1.2978. Will let these run awhile, certainly into Monday and re-compute.

That’s another little theory for my recycle bin RC LOL!

I think your being hard on yourself Hog. One, what your theory shows me is your trying to think outside the box… never a bad thing! Two, its not that far off. If London pushes price decidedly one way, its often the case that New York will push it the other rather than repeat or mirror. But its still far better to drill down from the daily. The daily should give you a clear direction. Then drop down to lower tf’s and resist the contra moves against the daily. Difficult granted when a contra move can be 100 pips but statisically not advised. I have a short trade @ 1.2930 directly off the daily just a little below median which will likely take a few days to play out. Not worried that PA went 50 odd pips against it today on the shorter tf’s as I’m reasonably confident it will play out on the daily south. My two shorter tf trades today were taken off the daily also but very much I would hope on the upper or high side of daily median.

Next on our list of Reversal Patterns is the Dark Cloud Cover.

It actually did occur to me this morning that when we discussed one candle formations (Hammer, Hanging Man), we never talked about the Doji, which itself is a one candle signal. However on checking through the table of contents in Mr C’s book, I’ve found that he devotes an entire chapter to Doji’s, and it’s variations later on, so just in case anyone is wondering why we haven’t discussed them, we’ll get to them later.

Dark Cloud Cover

The Dark Cloud Cover, essentially is much the same as the Bearish Engulfing Pattern. It’s a two candle formation, it should form at the top of an UP move, but the notable difference is that instead of the second bearish candle completely covering the first bullish candle, the second candle closes more than half way down the first candle but NOT lower than the first candles low:

Hopefully you can make out the patterns from this image

At the first point indicated you can see a definable up move, and at the top of it, a strong green Bullish candle appears. That is then followed by a Red bearish candle, which closes more than halfway down the body of the strong green bullish candle. Again, as with the Engulfing Patterns, the shadows, (or wicks) are not important to the formation, but may give us a place to put stops.

What you will also notice with the first formation is that following the Dark Cloud Cover, price DID NOT Reverse it’s direction, but CHANGED direction.

Remember; A Reversal Signal is NOT a guarantee that price will Reverse, but merely an indication that the direction of price May Change.

On the second pattern indicated, you’ll notice that when the dark cloud cover appeared, it was followed by a Bearish Engulfing Pattern, and then price Reversed.

Mr C’s points that will increase the likelyhood of the Dark Cloud Cover working;

  1. The greater the degree of penetration of the second candle into the first candle, the greater the chance that it is signalling a top.

  2. If the pattern appears at a previous resistance level, it may show that the Bulls have failed to take control of the market.

Another point he makes is about volume on the second candle (increased volume on the second day confirming the reversal) which is a bit beyond our scope just now.

Again though, it is worth remembering that this pattern, like all patterns can fail;

If I was to zoom the chart out from the image above, you would see that these patterns appeared at no important point, or no significant level, in the movement of price. So we need to keep in mind where these patterns appear.

There isn’t a great deal more I can add about the Dark Cloud Cover so I’ll make my summary of it according to Mr C.

  1. The Dark Cloud Cover is a two candle reversal signal.
  2. It should come at the TOP of an UP move to be considered a Dark Cloud Cover.
  3. It is NOT considered to be as significant as a Bearish Engulfing Pattern, but should be, nevertheless, noted as a possible point of exhaustion of the Bulls (people pushing price up).
    4.Like the Bearish Engulfing Pattern, the shadows,(wicks) are NOT important to the pattern itself, but those shadows may give us a good place to place our stops should we take a short position from the pattern.
  4. The degree of penetration of the second candle into the first candle increases the likelyhood that the pattern will “work”

Again, just before I end this, A Reversal Signal is and indication that the direction of price will CHANGE, and not necessarily REVERSE, and they are ALWAYS considered to be more important if they confirm a previous Support/Resistance (Swing High/Low) or other important price level.

Next it’s the Piercing Pattern, (opposite of Dark Cloud Cover) then we’re on to talking about the Stars. OOoohhhhhh!
Personally I’m a Gemini, The Schizophrenic…aren’t we?

We genuinely have no idea why this image has appeared again. Doesn’t appear on the EDIT page.


And were off and running early! :13: Closed out half for 70 pips and stop inside second half entry, so BE plus some (1.2962). Tempted to close out second half as OS on the 4h. Probable bounce @ 1.2911. LOL… that was a big dip. Closed out second half… now long off 1.29 to catch the bounce! Current median on daily now around 1.2925.

You old dog! :35:

The Piercing Pattern

Just as the Bearish Engulfing Pattern is the opposite of the Bullish Engulfing Pattern, the Piercing Pattern is the opposite of the Dark Cloud cover. The Piercing Pattern is a two candle reversal signal that comes at the BOTTOM of a DOWN move.

The criteria for the Piercing Pattern is as follows;

  1. The Piercing Pattern is made up of two candles at the bottom of a down move.
  2. At the bottom of a DOWN move, a BEARISH candle should be followed by a BULLISH candle, which closes MORE THAN HALFWAY up the BODY of the BEARISH candle, but does not close above the body of the BEARISH candle.

Above is an image of the “perfect world” Piercing Pattern. Price moves down, then the Piercing Pattern appears and then price moves back up. Oh how easy this is !!

However, at the risk of repeating this for the 1 millionth time, a Reversal Signal is NO guarantee that price will “reverse”.

Below is an image that contains two Piercing Patterns in pretty close proximity to each other.

In the first of the two patterns, you can see that price moved down, then the Piercing Pattern appeared, but price moved sideways after it.

In the second pattern indicated you can see that although the candles formed a Piercing Pattern, it did not count as a true Piercing Pattern as it did not immediately follow a down move.

Just like the Engulfing Patterns and the Dark Cloud Cover, the shadows, (wicks) are NOT important to the pattern themselves other than to give you an indication as to where you might want to place your stop when trading these patterns.

The Piercing Pattern is less important than the Bullish Engulfing Pattern however it is always worth noting WHERE and WHEN they occur, especially if it occurs at a previous level of Support, or another level of interest.

Not much more I can write about the Piercing Pattern. It comes at the bottom of a down move, it’s made up of a BEARISH candle followed by a BULLISH candle. The BULLISH candle closes more than halfway up the body of the BEARISH candle. It’s importance should be measured in the context of where in Price Action it occurred.

I did think, admittedly only when I was writing this post, that it mat have been an idea to include lines on all images as to where to place stops when trading the patterns discussed so far, just the same way I have done in the first image of this post.

However, rather than go back and drag up all the images again, some of which I’ve actually deleted already, I think it is probably enough to say that the highs or lows of the shadows (wicks) of the candles that form these patterns should serve as a reasonable enough place to put your stops, actually, more likely just a handful of pips above/below the highs/lows.

Do remember though to take note of where all of these patterns appear in the context of the Price Action of the pair you’re trading, as any of these patterns forming at a level which has had NO previous importance may turn out to be nothing more than the market taking a rest before it continues in the prior direction

And just before I go for tonight to start reading up on the “STARS” (and I’m not talking Justin Beiber and Miley Cyrus here), well done Mr Carter for being out of the blocks so fast last night. All you need to do is ask Santa for another 52 Sundays like that next year mate and it’s Havanas all round me thinks :wink:

EDIT; Actually I was just reading back through this and I reckon I got part of the second image wrong. As you can see price was in a down move, and then a Piercing Pattern appeared and price went sideways, but I have labelled it a “Failed Piercing Pattern”. But when you think about it, it didn’t Fail

I’ve wrote a load of times that reversal signals only indicate that the direction of price may change, and I reckon the direction DID change, even for a little while. It was going down, then it went sideways after the pattern appeared. My mistake guys, sorry.

Anyway, as I mentioned in the post above, the next formations to look at are the “stars”. The first ones will be the morning star and the evening star, (essentially opposites of each other) These are our first 3 candle formations.

Then it will be the morning and evening doji stars . More 3 candle formations. (even though Mr C hasn’t got to dojis yet)

And then we will finish the star section with the Shooting star and the inverted hammer, which are single candles.

It takes me a little while to go through it and sort out what I think is relevant because as I have mentioned before, this book was not written specifically or Forex ( my mistake to be honest, I should probably find one that was and move on to that)

I do have a Steve Nison Forex book somewhere on either one of three computers or on one of half a dozen pen drives (oh clutter thy name is HoG) So I’ll dig it out sometime soon and maybe I’ll get on a bit quicker guys. Apologies for the third time in one night !

Shorted EU from 1-30,(just below falling trend line). target 1-2955, stop just above trend line at 1-3020.

+16 as I write, may move stop to breakeven.

EDIT; Moved stop to just under breakeven and just got stopped out. I still think it’s a short though.

Morning Hog… I’ve taken a long off 2986 LOL. BUT… its off the 1h, so not looking for much… probably 1.30 and out. I too will be looking for the longer short entry but somewhere in the area of the recent high (3014) if it gets back up there as missed the entry today. Good hunting!

Morning HoGster!!

For me the picture on EUR/USD is just a little mixed. I like to take my bias from the Daily with reference to other timeframes both above and below. For my money, while I obviously see the trendline on the Daily - it’s a descending triangle to my eye, since you like your patterns these days! So could give a nice downside move in the future.), there was no clear PA on the Daily to short, indeed we just have a series of strong buyer bars with a low test. I shorted the high test of 05/10/12, but would not personally have been interested today. I’m long EUR/AUD, which I’m finding a lot clearer. I see where you were coming from, though, so don’t think I’m knocking - trailing the Stop was certainly a good, conservative play on that sort of chart, imho.

(Glad you liked the video, by the way, I’m a big fight fan (SimonTemplar also rides on CheckHookBoxing!), so it appealed to me. The concept is just like Cool Hand Luke - keep getting up. Most people don’t.)

ST