Yunni, I think patience can pay.
I also liked to ask before, why is your SL so wide? but if it is that deep, so you can tolerate if price makes a stick there.
btw, can it be true, that Obama asked Eu, to keep Greece in till 6.nov. So we have a time-support-zone now?
My SL is 106 pips because I like to place it behind at least 2 S/R levels (swing strategy) but at the same time I am targeting 300 pips or at least 150 pips if price test the top of the range again…
If price goes against me and I think that price is changing its Bias… then I try to exit at BE or at small loss from any bounce at the S/R levels that defend my trade.
I trade with Oanda so I can adjust pretty easy my position size… my positions range between 0.2% to 1% of my account…
I can have several trades open at the same time in different instruments (my usual exposure to the market is between 3% to 5% of my account)… for example… right now I am long E/U, E/G
and short G/U, G/Y, N/C…
The GBP trades are deep in black… E/U and N/C are hanging around BE
N/C is Nzd/Chf or Cad? (:
and : would you consider to short U/Cad - if I would, my SL would be at about 1.005-7 what do you think?
Hey Yunny… after much chart gazing (is that the same as ‘star gazing’ LOL) I agree, looks like EU PA has found support. So long off 2905 but with a tighter SL @ 2880.
You are right RC… so far PA looks good for longs, although I expect a shake up before an up move…
EU hits my stop, to the EXACT 100th of a pip, not a 100th above not a 100th below, my EXACT level, then turns around and goes long. Officially in the huff today.
Don’t you just hate it when that happens… just a thought Hog… if your happy entering a trade at a given level, try putting up a standard zigzag and setting your SL a couple of pips below or above that level.
It did occur to me RC to have Mrs HoG patrol my stop line with a couple of Rottweilers and a machine gun, not that she’d need them.
Just wondering how I get her on to a chart though :33:
Is a NZD/CAD… not liking the trade right now but I am still sticking to my plan
USD/CAD level i am watching for possible shorts is 1.0070…
What a week this is turning out to be. First trade gets stopped out for a loss when price drops to the exact level my stop was placed.
Now my EU long, that was +70 for one very brief moment today, has just been stopped out for +8 !!
There has to be a lesson in there somewhere. Needed another 20 pips to hit my target, maybe better trade management is needed after viving back 62 pips.
Agreed it has been a rough week. I did get short the bobmaninc last night @ 1.0385. Just went home for lunch to find I am up a whopping 16 pips. Not quite sure this week will be one for the record books
markets are manipulated. noone ever of you felt, that banks influences our view? now I’m coming from a presentation where a big bank forecasted its outlook for the last quarter of the year. excellent. so if I trade upon their views, I 'll be right and they suceeded in manipulating. the free market is dead. and values are just a clue…
Since we have been discussing PA recently and candlestick patterns, I thought this may be of interest just by way of a reminder that things don’t always go the way we hope they will go.
This is the EU Daily chart for the last few days:
So then, how do you like that little collection of failures then??
According to the way I see it, the initial dark cloud cover worked, the piercing pattern failed, the first hammer failed, second hammer failed and the Bull Engulfing is in the lap of the Gods right now due to the Doji that has formed today (albeit today’s candle is not complete yet)
EDIT: In fact, if you zoom the chart out a little, and go back a few posts on this thread, then just about the only thing that HAS worked is yunny’s first level of support around 1-2880/90.
All of which brings me on to my next rant, since the world has treated me so immensely unfairly this week :28:,
A thing that you will come across every now and again, when you are learning, is some smart arse or other telling you that the reason you fail is that you cut your winners short and let your losers run. When what you SHOULD be doing is cutting your LOSERS short and letting your WINNERS run.
Sage advice indeed. But here’s the problem I have with that, today’s trade being my main source of reasoning with this.
I think it was Nikitafx, some time ago, who asked when do you take profit? Meaning, at what point in a trade do you think, “That’ll do me nicely.” and you close out your trade. If memory serves, the answers to that were varied, and quite rightly so. Because there IS NO right answer to that question, there is only YOUR answer to that question.
Take my job for instance, taxi driving. Now from Glasgow city centre to Prestwick Airport, (30 miles), the generally accepted set fare is £60. But even that is a classic case of supply and demand, and here is why. If you come and ask me on a quiet Tuesday morning to go to Prestwick, when I’m sitting about doing not much anyway, I will easily accept £50 to take you.
However, if you ask me on a Saturday night, when it’s easier to find Lord Lucan and Shergar than it is to find a taxi in Glasgow, we ain’t going for £50 that’s for sure, not in my taxi anyway.
Now the point of that is that some drivers will still demand £60 even on a quiet Tuesday, and criticise the driver who does it for £50. But it’s NOT them doing it, it’s me, and if I’M happy with £50, then what does it matter what other people think?
So this takes us back to the “How many pips is enough” question. Sure, you should let your winners run, but you CAN’T let them run blindly, as was the case with me today. Let me show you what I mean.
This is the EU 1 Hour Chart from today.
I let my trade run because I had a specific target in mind (1-3040). I opened my EU long at 1-2950 and at one point was approx 70 pips up. And while I am at work I don’t have a good way of keeping an eye on my charts, I can only really check the prices.
So knowing I was +70, hoping for a final target of +90, what was the best way to manage the trade? Where should I have moved my stop to so that I locked in some good profit, but still allowed the trade room to play out? Well that was the point of telling you the taxi story, that’s the personal choice bit, that’s the bit where there is NO one correct specific answer, it’s up to you.
But there are, in my opinion a couple of things to bear in mind when trying to make that decision.
First one is price action itself. In the 1 hour chart above, had I been able to see the doji that had formed rough at 10:30 am, I may well have been thinking I’d better keep an eye on this and placed my stop at the low of the doji, or even on the 1-30 figure.
So to bring the “let your winners run” thing back into the conversation then YES, DO let your winners run, but ONLY if price action TELLS you that they WILL continue to run in the first place.
The second thing to keep in mind is a little more of the personal choice. Owing to the fact that trading demo lacks the feeling you get when you trade live, I stuck $50 dollars back into my account so I could trade live again. Why only $50 you may ask? Well the answer to that is that I really don’t want to commit any larger some until I feel as though I have a better grasp of what I’m doing, but I do want to trade with real money, hence $50
But today’s trade, at 10 cents a pip in a micro account, was almost $7 up at one point. Now that is roughly 13% of my entire account balance right now. Ok, ok, I’m the first to admit, we’re not talking about a huge some of money here, but we ARE talking about 13% of your entire account balance. Why wouldn’t anyone just take that? Who makes 13% of their entire account on one trade?
I guess the point I’m trying to make is this, if you are in a trade, a winning trade, and your profit from that trade is a reasonable, or makes a decent % gain to your balance, and PA is in any way, shape or form doubtful, just take the bloody money, regardless of whether it still hasn’t reached your TP, just take it, bank it and move on. Your in this for you, no-one else, so if YOUR happy, that’s all that counts.
This IS different from taking your profit the very second you go 1 pip up mind you, that’s a different thing, that’s just called panic, and yes, I HAVE done that too !!
And that is what I call wisdom.
Excellent post.
Thats a very interesting post Hog. When is enough, enough? Yesterday I was reading the stats of an outstanding ex institutional trader. Guess what his average trade in pips was? Suprisingly, just 14 pips! Not much granted, but they soon add up. I personally took heart from this revelation as I will habitually open two equal size lots at the start of every trade. As soon as I’m in the plus side by 10-16 pips I will always close half and let the second half run some. But there again not by alot. Take my last trade off the EU low. I closed out half at plus 16 and the remainder at 38. Then PA as you have stated went on much higher.
You remember I opened that ‘Myfxbook’? It was specifically to track my initial one lot of two lots close out at 10-16 pips (on average) as I have never bothered to track this one of two trades in isolation as I use it primarily as a buffer on the longer second half of the trade. So far (6 days including today) 13 trades all winners for 182 pips. (I can post up the results if in doubt). What I’m suggesting is sometimes even a small ‘enough’ is well… enough? LOL
An update:
(sorry for some spelling in the image…)
http://i1086.photobucket.com/albums/j449/yunny11/eurusd165.png
Agreed Yunny… saw the weekly go negative last Thursday and pretty much figured the previous 4h upmove was a last gasp and went short off 2963. See no reason yet to change that opinion… H1 through H4, daily and weekly all short as of 21:00 GMT Sunday.
… I would really like to see the strength of the dollar, because it’s good for the world, but is it really good, that it is strengthening now because of the elections? …