Yunny looking at your charts, I’m gona take a guess and say you use Sam Seiden’s supply and demand methods. I’ve got all the webinars in my bookmarks. Might take a look later
Yes, I do but with a little twist from my own. I do not like to follow anybody’s systems or strategies. I take whatever makes sense to me and apply it to my trading 
Of course. I agree. Every trader must have their own edge!
Just opened a ‘myfxbook’ to track my trades and stats. Not sure this is a good idea as it takes data directly from my actual account without the ability to delete less than stella results! LOL!!!
LOL. The answer to that is very simple RC. Just don’t have any “less than stellar” results !!
Hi all,
Greetings from Ireland. HoG I’m loving the thread. Some wonderful insights. We newbies need this type of thread to keep our motivation up as much as anything else. I am following along and I would love to add something of use at some future date.
I definitely think the topics discussed are hugely significant! The pillars of success or potential success in this business. The rest comes down to screen time which is where the topics we all think we know in theory will begin to show themselves in action. On paper they are just ideas, words, terms etc. But used correctly on a chart they are wealth builders.
I really hope we all get there. My own activities currently are concerned with eating up as much chart time as I can get (evenings only sadly). To keep the motivation and knowledge up I like to tune in here. And the last 40 or so pages have been a huge help.
People talk about signal service threads. This to me is way way more valuable than a signal service thread. This is giving us far better signals than simple price directions. This is signalling the way to success.
Thank you all for sharing.
Padraic
Thank you anfearmor for the kind words. I’ve said it many times before, probably to the point where it is now driving people mad when I do say it again, but we have been very lucky in the last couple of threads with the people we have attracted, who have always been polite, helpful and above all else, willing to share when the are asked genuine questions.
As for [I]“adding something of use”[/I], the very second you ask a question, no matter how basic you think it may be to others, you’ve added something of use. No-one in this business is unique in the respect that they are the ONLY person who doesn’t understand something, it’s a complicated game all said and done, so ask questions.
The point of this particular thread was to try and learn, [I][B]“from a new traders”[/B][/I] point of view. I tried to go through some of ICT’s stuff, I tried to go through petefaders stuff and Chris Capre has a price action thread going that I try to look at as well.
All 3 of those guys, imho, post honest valuable information. The only problem I’ve found with them is that unless you have a certain grasp of the theory, and even the terms, names and phrases used, it can run over a new trader quite quickly. Some people have the ability to pick things up quickly, others take a bit more time.
I always thought though that the difference with this thread was, unlike the other 3 examples where you have experienced traders trying to pass on some of their hard earned knowledge, this thread was started by some-one who had just blown an account and was trying to learn by asking questions of the experienced guys.
I have to admit, I like this thread myself. Some of the contributions made by experienced traders, not least of which has been some of the great insights yunny1 has provided, have helped this thread become a nice place to visit.
Having said all of that, I am aware that I have been somewhat MIA this week. Unfortunately family things just take over sometimes and that is what has happened to me over the last few days. Hopefully once we get tomorrow out of the road without any problems I’ll be good to get back to business come Monday.
In the meantime I’ll tell you what I’ve been reading since I’ve been in exile, which again was mostly inspired by a comment made by yunny1 earlier in the week;
Since we already spoke about S/R earlier in the thread, this comment had me thinking, “What EXACTLY IS Price Action?” Is it a formation of candles? Is it a line? What is it? I looked, as I mentioned above, at Chris Capres Price Action thread, which I do ry to read and do enjoy, but pretty soon your immersed in pin bars and rejections with a wee bit of ichimoku thrown in now and again.
Now it’s all very well of me, since I’m a glitzelplanker engineer after all, to tell you the reason [B]your[/B] glitzelplanker isn’t working properly is because you haven’t changed your dooflehanger recently. That’s just plain old common sense to me, me being an expert and all. But unless you know what a dooflehanger is, or that you even have a glitzelplanker in the first place, your gonna get confused quite quickly aren’t you?
So what, in simple terms, is Price Action?
Well for me personally, I think the best example of it was shown recently by RC when he posted one of his charts which simply showed a line chart. No candles, whizz-bangers, (dooflehangers) indicators nor nowt!Just a line that showed what price actually did. Where it went, where it stopped, where it turned around.
I’m guessing from there, we then learn to interpret those moves by means of candle formations, S/R, swing highs/lows, or by any other means [B]YOU[/B] personally prefer.
I know that the length of this post already may dispute my next claim that I am short of time right now and don’t have time to write, or ask, the appropriate questions about price action just now, but I really don’t :).
So if anyone else would like to comment on it feel free. If you enter a search in google for “price action trading”, one of the top returned sites is wikipedia and they have a very interesting [B][I]“page”[/I][/B] about it. To save you all the time of doing the search though, here is the link to it.
Wikipedia Price Action Trading.
It ain’t short, but Ive been reading through it and I’m enjoying it so far. I’m hoping that by next week sometime I will be set up to take the small laptop out in the taxi with me and be able to record some trade entry and exits as I make them. If nothing else it might make for interesting conversation as to the “why” and/or "why not"of actually making some trading decisions.
Hopefully, if this week finishes without any worries, I’ll get that going. So I probably won’t post again this week, the length of this post should be enough to cover my ‘quota’ for a day or two LOL !!
Take care guys, talk to y’all soon.
HoG
I think a thank you is proper from a newbie. Been reading true here like mad trying to learn every little bit. Before making the big step.
Hey Guys,
Here’s a little thought, mostly for the newbies as the experienced guys will probably be aware of a statistic similar to this anyway, but I just “discovered” it for myself just now so you guys that are aware of it will just have to put up with this LOL!! 
trading closed for the week just over an hour ago and since all of the HoGettes were in bed I decided to aimlessly look through my trading charts. Sometimes I use a tool on my charts called ‘Trade Sessions’, which for those of you who don’t know what that does, it simply adds coloured boxes onto your charts to help you distinguish between Tokyo, Sydney, London and New York trading sessions.
It also tells you the open, close, high, low for each session. I would post a chart to show you what I mean but my trading station closed pretty sharp tonight for weekend maintenance so that picture will have to wait.
Looking back through the charts, I started to notice that more often than not, the New York trading session was contained entirely within the London Session. [B][I]Now I’m not saying it always is, it just seemed to be more often than not,[/I][/B] So since I can be quite a boring sort of guy when I really put my mind to it, I decided I would go back 2 years and work out what percentage of days the Euro/Dollar traded outside of the London session range when London closed and it was only New York left open. ( do you see what I mean by that ?)
So here’s the thing, I only managed to go back 78 days worth of data before my trading station stopped for the weekend, but the number of times New York stayed within the london range AFTER London had closed is running very slightly under 80%.
So this means that 80% of the time, when London closes, the remainder of the New York session has stayed WITHIN the London Session trading range. Now that may not mean a whole lot if London closes slap bang in the middle of that days trading range, but if London was to close near the high or low of it’s daily session, it would appear,[B][I][U] USING THE LIMITED DATA I HAVE AT PRESENT,[/U][/I][/B] you’d have an 80% chance price would move opposite to that closing position.
[B][I][U]THINGS TO BEAR IN MIND !![/U][/I][/B]
Firstly, this is only a very limited piece of data, since I only have 78 days to work with. I may well resume this research on Sunday and discover that New York Has a life all of it’s own and my percentages might get blown out of the water. [B]DO NOT[/B] take this as a means to base your trading decisions on.
Secondly, [B]DO NOT[/B] come back to me at any point in the future saying YOU DID take a trade based on that info and it went wrong, therefore your sending a hit man to Glasgow to get me. Although if you ARE sending a hit man, a bit of advance warning would be appreciated !!
Thirdly, and most importantly, if you DO decide to use this info in any way shape or form, research it YOURSELF first. I will continue to do it once my platform re-opens on Sunday, but it’s part of MY research which may or may not turn out to be use[B]FUL[/B] or use[B]less[/B], either way, if I get something wrong in the future based on it, then at least it will be MY mistake based on MY research, not MY mistake based on listening to some taxi driver from Glasgow LOL!!
Anyway, the more experienced guys may be reading this thinking, or knowing even, that this statistic holds no weight over the long run, but at least we’re thinking guys, at least the old grey matter is getting exercised.
Have a good weekend everyone, talk later.
HoG
Good morning all,
First of all I hope my images come out as I planned them. This is my first proper attempt at posting images so please forgive me if it goes down like a lead balloon.
I wanted to share what I was looking at this morning. It is kind of the way I am trying to look at the market. I am definitely not an expert but I am working on improving my market reading abilities like everyone else here.
I should also say it is after the event analysis and I am still working on figuring out the right hand side of the chart 
Here goes.
Basically I try to get the birds eye view and zoom in noting key areas of price action or levels…nothing especially new. But I wanted to share it because I think it brings some of the concepts shared in this thread so far together in some way.
In this first image I have drawn 2 fibs on the EUR/USD daily. One is from a more recent high to low and the second is from a larger swing. I like how the 50% level on the larger swing overlaps broadly with the 61-79% fib on the smaller swing. I also like to see the exhaustion candles (red arrows) as they interact with those levels. I also note the recent higher lows (to my eye at least) bouncing up against that 50% level. Seems we are in a slight range currently.
Next I zoom in on the action between 61-79% and I mark the key turning points. I note the key lows and highs. I also see some of the candle patterns discussed by HoG et al forming at these levels. These are the main areas of action I will focus on.
This next image has the levels labeled and also gives a clearer view of the candles. You can see some wonderful formations jumping out at you. The levels are also quite famous ones representing full figures, 20 and 80 levels.
Once I have noted the key levels and candle patterns on the 4 hour I delve deeper to the 1 hour. I’m still not comfortable entering on 4 hour so I like to explore lower TF to see if there is anything interesting happening at those levels marked on the higher TF. Again I see some nice candle patterns at those levels from the 4 hour TF showing me price is reconsidering it’s direction…not necessarily reversing as mentioned but definitely pausing for thought.
Finally the 15 minute. As an example I have zoomed in on the 1.3070 level marked on the higher chart and a nice BEARISH engulfing (I just now see I called it a bullish engulfing…itchy Saturday fingers :)) pattern has shown up right at the level.
Basically, this is how I am trying to look at markets currently. Start high and get significant levels then move lower to fine tune. As I said nothing new. I am definitely no expert. I am currently a part time chart watcher until I can make the leap safely into forex. I refuse to play with money that I don’t fully own. I am just trying to keep things a bit simple having been inspired by some of the greats here.
I hope it was at least a little bit useful to someone and I wish you all a wonderful Saturday. I am off out to bring home some turf (fuel for the fire for people who might not know) as the weather has been kind to us in the West of Ireland today.
Slan go foil
Padraic
Hi HOG
This sounds a bit like ICT’s London closing session trade.
I can’t remember the full details regarding the times etc, but he does mention a counter-trend setup to look out for at a specific time interval. I did trade it for a while, it was more of a 20 pip scalp thing, but it happens around my bedtime so I gave up on it.
What I’m saying is, have a look at that video and see if fits what you are looking at.
Actually ICT isn’t the only one, apparently there is some grandmother in the UK who also “discovered” this and is making some money from it (Well that’s what the marketers said and of course I believe them). So somebody out there is selling a course based on this very same concept. It’s worth looking into if you are awake at that time.
For me the only way I use the time thing is that I try to trade only after 10pm my time, (gmt +8) so that’s about 10 am New York time I think. Just watch your charts after that time and you’ll see what I’m talking about, there’s a surge of liquidity, whether it’s counter-trend or trend continuation.
Anyway, these are just my observations in real time so don’t take my word for it.
Cheers
Excellent posts…
HoG and piptronix, those session close strategies are good usually for a few pips… a lot of day traders liquidate their position at the end of the sessions, giving the opportunity for a nice scalp.
Anfearmor, very good analysis. Once you are able to recognize patterns with those swings, it takes away the uncertainty that traders have about the probable direction of price.
By the way I am long E/U from yesterday. Entry triggered at 1.2904 TP 1.3220 SL 1.2798
I thought I would put this post up as it interested me. It’s good enough advice for new traders to bear in mind.
It was written by one of the FXCM web-site analysts.
Don’t Fall Into This Trap When Using Your Charts
"[I] Since no one has that magical crystal ball that is going to tell us how a currency pair is going to move going forward, all traders use charts to make their trading analyses. The value of charts is that they show us the history of how a pair has moved over time. This history, for example, can show us price levels that the pair had trouble moving up through (resistance) or down through (support). Information such as this is invaluable when determining such things as our entries along with where to place our stops and limits.
When traders however become too granular when viewing their charts and they expand them to the point that they may only be viewing a few dozen or so candles, they lose one of the primary benefits that the chart provides: the big picture.
Let’s take a look at these two views of the AUDCHF Daily chart below…
On the first chart we are looking at 54 trading days of information. Based solely on this amount of data, if you tried to determine the trend on the pair so that you knew if the pair had a bullish bias or a bearish bias to it, what would your answer be? I don’t know about you, but I would be hard pressed to come up with a direction that I could technically justify.[/I]
[I]The second chart on the other hand has roughly one year’s worth of trading data on it as opposed to 54 days. Looking at the “big picture” regarding this AUDCHF currency pair, there is no question about which way this pair has been moving since about the middle of August of 2011. Based on this information we would want to look for buying opportunities on this pair.
Seeing how a pair has been moving over the longer term and with a “full view” can definitely resolve some questions.
Once the longer term charts have been checked out in an expanded view and the trend has been determined, then and only then is it OK to “get granular” and check out the shorter time frames and “expand the view” of all the charts for more detail if needed. The shorter time frames and the expanded chart views on their own, without getting the bigger picture, can oftentimes be misleading.[/I]
[I]Here is a general breakdown on how far back a trader should look on some of the more popular trading time frames to obtain a good “feel” for how the pair has been moving…
15 Minute Chart: 3 - 5 Trading Days
30 and 60 Minute Charts: 2 Weeks
4 Hour Chart: 4 - 6 Weeks
Daily Chart: 1 Year"[/I]
—Written by Richard Krivo
A couple of things I’sd like to get through before we get started this week, so here goes.
First one is simply the image I spoke of earlier regarding trading sessions, this is all the trade session tool does for anyone that doesn’t know, i simply places coloured boxes on your screens to highlight the different trading sessions (London, New york etc
I have london in green in this chart and new york in white. As you can see it clearly shows at a glance if new york traded inside the london range or outside of it.
Incidentally, I’ve went back to the start of 2012 and the percentage of trading days that new york has traded inside london this year, ( taken from 207 trading days ) is 68%.
New York has moved outside of the London range 32% of the trading days so far in 2012. May well go back and do 2011 and will have a look at the ICT video piptronix.
Second point I’d like to make is regarding the actual entry point of a trade, more to the point, where is the actual entry point?
Take this chart with the morning star pattern highlighted, (actually it’s the same picture as above just with the trade sessions removed. Anyway, if you were to act on the morning star and go long, what point would trigger you into the trade?
The break of which level would convince you to pull the trigger? Or does it depend on more than just the simple break of a level on a candle formation? If so, what?
I’m looking over the daily and weekly charts yunny trying to work out what made you put your entry trigger for 1-2904, but I can’t work it out. I hesitate to say it’s a good entry though in case I give your trade the kiss of death but I do think it is a good entry, just can’t figure out why you chose that specific number.
EDIT: Did you trigger from the 4 Hour?? That looks as though it could give that figure
Finally, just before I do get on with this week’s trading, it’s time for this…
WHattup, WHAttup, WHATTup, WHATTUP…It’s Ya BOY !!
Here is a link to a recording made by a guy named Napoloeon Hill. For those who don’t know, he was tasked as a young man by Mr Andrew Carnegie to discover what makes successful people successful. Napoleon Hill spent the next 20 years doing that and truly was the guy that gave birth to the whole Tony Robbins, Eric Thomas, Zig Ziglar self motivation industry.
I don’t think youtube will allow this to be embedded but it should direct you to the youtube site so you can listen to it. I must warn you though, it lasts over an hour and is only one of a series of 9 videos that combine to over 10 hours of listening.
I now have these on my iTouch, they’re not as soulful as Otis Reading, but I think they may do my soul more good in the long run.
[video=youtube_share;hdb3Xt5zkSI]http://youtu.be/hdb3Xt5zkSI[/video]
The London Close is a “generic” Session Window that provides opportunity to scalp a few points/pips depending on the asset class you trade.
The lady you might be referring to that sells a course on it is Shirley Hudson… and she learned it from Chris Lori, who unfortunately does not get credit as her source.
I learned it from George Angel in 1995 in his SpyGlass LSS seminar. It is the end of the New York AM Trend in SPOOS [S&P 500] Trading. The time of day lends well in Forex as you can imagine… the UK boys are closing up shop at this time and it provides a number of opportunities per month.
Now go get em desk jockies around Amercia! :57: [Just have your email window ready to toggle if the Boss approaches]
I can see what your seeing Yunny. But I have been selling into the 4h pull backs on the daily down trend last week. As yet I see no concrete confirmation that PA has turned bullish on the daily… not to say it won’t… just that I don’t see it yet. If we get a convincing and lasting break of 2954 then maybe. Until then I’m selling the 4h rallies.
Yes the trigger was the 4H chart (see the chart below)
We are in a consolidation period, then the logical trade is to sell top of the range and buy the bottom… maybe I am a little too optimistic with my target 
On friday E/U posted a nice pin bar, let’s see if it holds… I am expecting price to test again at least the 1.31 level