The Trader's Arms 2nd Floor

Beginner Questions
975

Haven’t looked at any other comparisons JL, it may well be the case that you could pick a completely random 1 hour candle and this would hold true for any of them.

That said, the winning % figures posted previously were over the whole year of 2011 using the same point in time every day. Right now I’m going through each trade to see what, if any, the actual profit would have been. I’ve only got through the first 100 trades so far (just under half of the year) but as it stands the profits so far go like this;

7-8am 10 pip trade…+ 455 pips
7-8am 15 pip trade…+ 435.6 pips
8-9am 10 pip trade…+ 297.1 pips
8-9am 15 pip trade…+ 304.3 pips

Now if those figures were to hold true for the second half of the year AND for the year 2012, I would be tempted to give it a go on the basis that it has a history of being profitable. I would probably test it live for a while also, which is what I am doing as of Monday and linked it to MyFxBook for you all to see.

Time of day may well have nothing to do with it, like you said, it may well work with any time of day, but this is the time I’m testing it on and if it works well…I dunno mate, I’d just be tempted to give it a go live.

There probably is some way of refining it, but that is another test going forward I reckon, it’s all about building your own little edge.

Marakesh wasn’t really an option anyway mate, as has been discussed on this thread before, I’m Scottish, add the sun to that and you’re asking for trouble

976

Trade closed at 1.3150 ( it is the starting level of possible demand + it is friday, locking profits to avoid unpleseant surprises over the weekend )

Pips gained: 420

R/R: 1:6

Strategy used: you already know :smiley:

977

Awesome Yunny!! Your approach and ability to see the big picture really is great. I saw a couple of daily bias’s this week, but you see the real market. I’m officially a stalker… but a failry nice one.

978

First sorry for the late response…

I asked because you said you want to do this for a living, I am not going to deter you from day trading but I want to point out that day trading is one of the most stressful types of trading, you will have to be glue to the screens… stalking for one opportunity to enter the market (and yes I know you can limit your trading to LO and NYO), here is some advice from the SEC about day trading Day Trading: Your Dollars at Risk

Day trading is an extremely stressful and expensive full-time job

Day traders must watch the market continuously during the day at their computer terminals. It’s extremely difficult and demands great concentration to watch dozens of ticker quotes and price fluctuations to spot market trends. Day traders also have high expenses, paying their firms large amounts in commissions, for training, and for computers. Any day trader should know up front how much they need to make to cover expenses and break even.

and here some funny pics about it:




So yes I recommend swing trading to begin with, maybe the gains come slower but it easy to adjust your trading to the market conditions.

PS No, I am not full time trader yet… but getting there.

979

WHAT!?! All this time I’ve thought you were a full time trader lol.

980

I’ve never said that… But if you want I can say I am a full time trader who makes millions and owns a vault full of weapons :smiley: :smiley:

981

I kno you haven’t. But you did say you read every thread on here and FF. I thought you said that anyway. And just how professionally and simply you trade I assumed.

982

Ok, first of all let me say that I think I have worked out how to add the Myfxbook link. This should take anyone, assuming anyone is interested, to the Myfxbook record of the 7-8am and 8-9am candle breaks test.I will explain exactly what I am going to do with this as there is something else I need to explain afterwards.

HoG’s Myfxbook

I will ONLY be making 2 trades on this test each day. I will be trading the break of the 7-8am EUR/USD 1 hour candle (in whatever direction it breaks) and I will also be trading the break of the 8-9am EUR/USD 1 Hour candle (in whatever direction it breaks)

In each case I am only looking for 10 pips from each trade and out. Unfortunately the way things are right now I don’t have the luxury of time to sit and let the trade play out longer if price action suggests it will run longer than 10 pips.

I will not be testing the 15 pip trades. This in a way is a bit of a shame right now because the break of the 7-8am candle 15 pip trade is so far showing the second highest return from the back-testing. But again, I just don’t have time to get on with it all right now.

In each trade I will only be trading 1 lot, which works out on this demo account to a value of £0.86. Target will be 10 pips, stop loss will be the other end of the candle that was broken, regardless of how many pips that involves.

As you will see if you visit the Myfxbook page, the starting balance for the whole thing is £1000.

HoG’s MyfxBook

Now here’s the other thing I have to explain. I won’t be on the thread until after the 8th of March now. I have to study the other stuff I am supposed to be studying and the thread and the back-testing recently is taking up way too much time.

I had hoped to have the back-testing profit results for 2011 done by today, but I forgot my trading platform closes down for weekend maintenance and I can’t get at my charts until tomorrow. That means that the results wouldn’t get done until Monday
at the earliest and I really do need to get cracked on with the other stuff.

If I get some spare time in between I’ll do a bit at a time and try to post the results, but failing that this will be my last post until March sometime.

I don’t think there is anything else I need to add right now. If the test in Myfxbook crashes and burns in record breaking time then it’s back to the drawing board (again).

Cheers gang

HoG

983

I’m wishing you the very best of luck. With everything :slight_smile:

984

HoG, I remember you saying that you’re doing a H&S course, maybe Neebosh, anyhow I know it’s intensive so wishing you well.
It’s a good area so stay focussed :slight_smile:

985

Nebosh NGC exam on the 8th March peterma. Don’t think I’ll pass it as I signed up to the course a bit late to get through all the work. Not too fussed though as long as I pass the June exam and that will get me on to the University course starting October.

Thanks for the support though guys

986

I’m kind of curios as to why? Why the university? Why not focus that time trading? Just curious.

987

Well gentlemen, I went through all 96 pages of this thread and it has been a wonderful read. HoG’s great posts, Yunny’s elegant trading, ST’s words of wisdom…all much appreciated.

Hope you are all doing well and we can get this thread’s quality back up to previous standards.

Best of luck for your exam HoG!

I’m throwing in a chart from my swing trading thread just to get some discussion going. I am trying to implement a somewhat similar approach to Yunny.

1024×432

988

I’ve just caught up with this thread as well. Thanks HoG for taking the time to start this thread and teach a lot of good stuff. I’ve been a follower of ICT’s stuff pretty much since I started getting into trading and, although I like his tools, I can see how it comes across as pretty complicated.

I love the simplicity of the trading methods discussed in this thread. Yunny and ST especially, you’ve made me realise it’s much clearer and simpler watching things unfold on the daily and 4H charts as opposed to 1H and 15M. And you both really do a good job of explaining stuff to beginners reading this thread.

One thing ICT taught that might cross over into longer term EOD trading is the COT report. Do any of you guys pay any attention to that? Right now the GBP/USD COT report shows that commercial traders have the biggest long position since March 2012. So could mean they’re expecting GBP/USD to turn around now, but, then again, it could be weeks until the reversal takes place. I guess it’s the newbie in me thinking it would be nice to buy now and hold it all the way back up to 1.62!

989

Welcome to bp BearMark,

For awhile I studied and played with the COT and here’s my opinion, toss the COT into the bin and keep your eyes glued to the chart of the instrument you want to trade, the price will tell you what you need to know.

When the COT is at a recent long-term extreme high or low, it [B]might[/B] be a signal that the recent major trend [B]may [/B]change. Notice I said [B]might and may.[/B] The current extreme level could also move to an even more extreme level, with the recent trend continuing.

So will the trend change direction or not? :confused:

Keep an eye on the GBP/USD chart it will become obvious when the recent down trend is attempting to change. You’ll see more daily HHs / HLs than LLs/LHs and previous areas of resistance will break, flip and become support.

Instead of watching the GBP/USD COT, I’d keep my eye on the 1.5500 – 1.5550 area. A convincing break and hold above this area would be a [B]“real”[/B] sign the recent GBP/USD downtrend is trying to turn to the up side. :wink:

990

That is because our generous host, Home of Golf, is nothing short of a renaissance man. He is a seeker of knowledge, dispenser of wisdom, comedian and story teller, forex trader and on occasion, a taxi driver. So, why would he seek enrollment in an institution of higher learning?

Because he can.

Good luck on the exam HoG.

991

Thanks d-pip. That makes complete sense. Better to wait for price action to make it clear to us that it’s changed direction and then catch what we can of the move, than to guess that it “might” change direction now.

Another question about trading using the daily TF, does it matter what time the daily candles close? I’ve heard a lot of people say you absolutely must use New York Close candles, which would be daily candles that close at 2200GMT for me. However, I think I saw SimonTemplar say he does his analysis around 2345GMT so I’m assuming that’s using candles that close at 0000GMT.

The reason I ask is that the 4H charts are shifted by 2 hours depending on whether the daily candle closes at 2200GMT or 0000GMT. So on one 4H chart you can see a nice perfect pinbar or other candlestick pattern at a certain S or R level, but on a different 4H chart it doesn’t look much like any significant candlestick pattern.

992

Not to worry BearMark. If the 4-hour candle opened at a different time, instead of one nice big-a pin bar bouncing off support, you would see another 4-hour bar reversal pattern.

For example, might see a big full body red bar followed by a full body green one, or big full body red bar followed by a short green inside bar, or short red bar followed by a large green engulfing bar.

A pin bar might be the easiest to spot but it’s not the only pattern you need to pay attention to. A full body red bar followed by a full body green bar is just as strong of a reversal signal.

Hope that helps

PS ny 22:00 GMT and 00:00 GMT both seem to work fine.

993

Figured that one, think you’ll get through first time round, late start or not. H&S is a growth area, you have chosen wisely.

994

ok guys just a quick one before I head out to work. I don’t know what I have done with the Oanda demo account, or the Myfxbook thing, but I have just won the break long of the 7-8am EUR/USD candle for +10 pips and it hasn’t shown in either of the two platforms.

I entered the trade, or so I thought, in Oanda and it showed my entry and TP and stop, but when the trade closed there was no change to the balance.

Entry long was 1 unit at 1-32236, TP was 1-32336 and the stop was 1-3206. I’ll try to work it out sometime